Article: Minnesota's Winter Of Discontent

[Doctor Wu]

Well, the additions to the bullpen were impressive, although the idea of Fernando Rodney as the team's closer still gives me painful intestinal cramps. Still waiting on that A-list starter, Even the lower tier possibilities such as Garcia and Cashner are already off the board. Hmm ... is this Archer trade going to actually happen or is that just another wild rumor? Every day I keep waiting for something positive, but I'm feeling pessimistic at this point.

[mikelink45]

 

Actually Garcia was not "replacement level" last year -- he was average, which has value and could be an improvement.

If a 5 - 10 record, a 1.408 WHIP, a 4.41 era, a 6.03 runs allowed per 9 innings with the Yankees, a RAA  of -5 for the Yankees, makes him average I will continue to say that we can use our rookies to equal the output of this 31 year old pitcher and we should. 

[Jham]

I don't believe the Twins offer was ever considered by Davish's agents: it was a means to an end.

Re: get other, richer teams to bump up their offerings. Hey, at least the Twins were in the national conversation for a change.

 

I'd like to see Falvey and Levine go after Archer hard and one of Cole, Cobb, Lynn, Odorizzi or Tillman. I'm betting F & L would be looking at short, 2 year contracts. With the current lineup and Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Jay, and Stewart on the horizon, I'm still optimistic on the Twins near future.

 

Overall, I'm OK with what Falvey and Levine have done in 1 year. Now, what else have you got?

The fact that you consider Jorge Jay and Stewart as reasons for optimism makes me all the more pessimistic. Two failed first rounders and a AAAA pitch to contact guy. I see the draft of Jay (And reed and Burdi) as huge organizational failures. The pick of Stewart wasn't awful, but they're failure to either develop him or correctly scout and market him for trade (along with Kepler arguably) is somewhat indefensible in my eyes. I believe Stewart passed Rule 5 draft despite having AAA experience? Hoping he learns to miss bats is a bad risk.

[Tomj14]

 

 

Bullpen has been added to, substantially.  That was the highest priority over the last two seasons.

 

Can't disagree it has been added to. I love Reed addition, But is Rodney an upgrade on Kintzler and Belisle?

Duke adds good depth that we didn't have last year, and the young guys should keep improving.

But to me Reed is the only real prize addition

[Otto von Ballpark]

If a 5 - 10 record, a 1.408 WHIP, a 4.41 era, a 6.03 runs allowed per 9 innings with the Yankees, a RAA of -5 for the Yankees, makes him average I will continue to say that we can use our rookies to equal the output of this 31 year old pitcher and we should.

Only 30% of his starts last year were with the Yankees. You might as well as assert that 2 below average months mean that a player can't be average for a whole season.

 

Since you brought up RAA, Garcia is +18 for his career. You note that his 2015 was quite good at +24, but even taking that out, -6 runs over the other 144 starts is pretty much the definition of average.

 

I really don't get your insistence on immediately throwing guys into the fire with virtually zero AAA experience (and not even elite prospects at that). Because Brad Radke did it for a 99 loss team 23 years ago?

If Garcia is as bad as you say he is, he can easily be replaced by prospects during the course of a 1 year deal. If the prospects struggle, you may not have the luxury of finding a veteran replacement during the season exactly when you want, at exactly your desired price. Not to mention the risks of pushing the prospects, if you give them too many challenges at once, it is probably not good for their overall development -- you don't just push every promising 12 year old to med school like Doogie Howser. And of course the heightened injury risk -- Fernando Romero's performance was showing obvious signs of fatigue after about 110 IP last year, and this is a guy you want to skip AAA?

[DaveW]

Not sure if Falvine/Levine are to blame, or the ownership.

Guessing it's a little from column A and a lot from column B.

Either way it's disappointing and not only am I canceling my season ticket package, but debating on just 'borrowing' MLB.TV package from a friend this year as well.

If they won't commit money, I won't commit money.

 

[birddog]

We are all trying our best to figure out why the front office is so reluctant to improve our starting pitching when we look very impressive in all other phases of the game. My only guess is that they think our young prospects are ready to prove that they are at least as good as the free agents they refuse to sign or trade for? If they find they are wrong a month into the season, I hope they have at least laid the groundwork to quickly fix it.

[Mike Sixel]

We are all trying our best to figure out why the front office is so reluctant to improve our starting pitching when we look very impressive in all other phases of the game. My only guess is that they think our young prospects are ready to prove that they are at least as good as the free agents they refuse to sign or trade for? If they find they are wrong a month into the season, I hope they have at least laid the groundwork to quickly fix it.

There are very few trades until the ASB, the 40 man is pretty set once the season starts until then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are very few trades until the ASB, the 40 man is pretty set once the season starts until then.

Yup. Once the season starts, you can't count on any external replacements being available until at least June, and they might be Bartolo-level cooked. Or late July for another Garcia type.

[Tommygun921]

I just don't get the excitement for Lynn or Cobb. Are they currently that much better than what we have to deserve a 4 yr $X amount contract? Maybe. Will they be better than what we have 2-3 years from now. I sure hope not. I dont think Darvish will be either. The unfortunate situation is that the offense arrived way earlier than the pitching. I'm never a fan of long term deals to free agents. Especially guys that are or will be rather mediocre a year or two in. One thing I also think people tend to not put enough thought into is that MN isnt always a place free agents want to go. Even if they get more money or years. I wonder if Falvey and Lavine are also finding that out. Which could explain why they haven't signed a free agent and may be looking to trade. Which I don't necessarily like considering how much they'd have to give up in order to get an impact arm. Hopefully they can start adding some fast moving arms via the draft.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Now is not the time to fall back into that comfortable, overly conservative mindset.

 

Totally agree with this message, and I'll up it one:

 

To have a

 

 

 

"long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber team."

 

you will need a long-term sustainable top of the rotation starting pitching pipeline. 

 

The Twins pipeline of top of the rotation long-term controlled starting pitching is not that great.  And you cannot rebuild a pipeline in a season.  I think that there are pitchers coming up that they can help the Twins around 2020-2021 time (Graterol, Enlow) but other than Berrios and maybe Romero there is not much there between then and now.  That's why getting someone like Darvish (or even better Cole or Archer) to cover that gap was essential.

 

They need to get there this season, and they should look at plan B and see what they can get by trading Dozier and Santana.  I still think that it was a huge mistake not trading Dozier last season (we don't know the offers, but even for De Leon+)  They better not repeat it.

[kab21]

 

Totally agree with this message, and I'll up it one:

 

To have a

 

 

 

 

you will need a long-term sustainable top of the rotation starting pitching pipeline. 

 

The Twins pipeline of top of the rotation long-term controlled starting pitching is not that great.  And you cannot rebuild a pipeline in a season.  I think that there are pitchers coming up that they can help the Twins around 2020-2021 time (Graterol, Enlow) but other than Berrios and maybe Romero there is not much there between then and now.  That's why getting someone like Darvish (or even better Cole or Archer) to cover that gap was essential.

 

They need to get there this season, and they should look at plan B and see what they can get by trading Dozier and Santana.  I still think that it was a huge mistake not trading Dozier last season (we don't know the offers, but even for De Leon+)  They better not repeat it.

We are in 100% agreement until the last paragraph. You don't just give a player like Dozier away and Santana is now injured and not even worth the bottom of the top 100 prospect that I pegged his value at earlier this offseason. 

[bobs]

The Twins really have only one realistic chance of getting an ace in the next 3 years...his name is Fernando Romero.  Even Chris Archer is not a true "ace".  He's a #1, but not an ace.  With that being the case, you then need to have a solid and deep rotation.  Since there clearly is no way of getting a true #1, guys like Lynn, Cobb, etc., become more valuable......as long as the price reflects their true status as #3 type starters.  Either one deepens the rotation.  

[nicksaviking]

 

Darvish was never coming to Minnesota. Not for a 7yr/$175M. Why would he? He could take a deal with the Cubs and pitch for a better team in a bigger market.

Same with Ohtani. Why would he choose Minnesota?

If you’re blaming Falvey, Levine, or the Pohlads on either of those “misses”, I think you’re fooling yourself.
 

 

You mean Falvey, Levine and Jim Pohlad were fooling themselves. The fans optimism stemmed from repeated comments from all of them that they were trying to get Darvish.

[Mike Sixel]

We are in 100% agreement until the last paragraph. You don't just give a player like Dozier away and Santana is now injured and not even worth the bottom of the top 100 prospect that I pegged his value at earlier this offseason.

 

Where did he say give Dozier away? He said trade him for pitching.

 

Do people think Brian will stay if they do nothing to fix the rotation? After how he reacted last year?

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[mikelink45]

 

Only 30% of his starts last year were with the Yankees. You might as well as assert that 2 below average months mean that a player can't be average for a whole season.

Since you brought up RAA, Garcia is +18 for his career. You note that his 2015 was quite good at +24, but even taking that out, -6 runs over the other 144 starts is pretty much the definition of average.

I really don't get your insistence on immediately throwing guys into the fire with virtually zero AAA experience (and not even elite prospects at that). Because Brad Radke did it for a 99 loss team 23 years ago?
If Garcia is as bad as you say he is, he can easily be replaced by prospects during the course of a 1 year deal. If the prospects struggle, you may not have the luxury of finding a veteran replacement during the season exactly when you want, at exactly your desired price. Not to mention the risks of pushing the prospects, if you give them too many challenges at once, it is probably not good for their overall development -- you don't just push every promising 12 year old to med school like Doogie Howser. And of course the heightened injury risk -- Fernando Romero's performance was showing obvious signs of fatigue after about 110 IP last year, and this is a guy you want to skip AAA?

I can understand your arguments and there are some good points, but I will retain my position and say that $10million - what the Jays paid, is over paying for a pitcher like Garcia.  We seem to have different lens and through mine I see a subpar pitcher while you see an average pitcher.  We might not be too far apart, but I maintain that if we are going to sign someone then a Cobb or Lynn has the potential to make us better and Garcia has the potential to make us the same. 

[kab21]

 

Where did he say give Dozier away? He said trade him for pitching.

Do people think Brian will stay if they do nothing to fix the rotation? After how he reacted last year?

even for DeLeon+ was his words. DeLeon was a nice prospect but not that great and perhaps the FO saw something (like injury history) that they didn't like and wanted someone else that was unavailable.

[Mike Sixel]

even for DeLeon+ was his words. DeLeon was a nice prospect but not that great and perhaps the FO saw something (like injury history) that they didn't like and wanted someone else that was unavailable.

You think you are getting more than a top fifty prospect for him? I predict Dozier is gone after this year, another year of a great player wasted.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Where did he say give Dozier away? He said trade him for pitching.

Do people think Brian will stay if they do nothing to fix the rotation? After how he reacted last year?

Not sure what you mean by "he reacted", but the front office has been unwilling to talk to Dozier about an extension, so love it or not Dozier seems as good as gone after (or during) 2018. Good for him. I hope he goes to a winner.

[gocgo]

 

Totally agree with this message, and I'll up it one:

 

To have a

 

 

 

 

you will need a long-term sustainable top of the rotation starting pitching pipeline. 

 

The Twins pipeline of top of the rotation long-term controlled starting pitching is not that great.  And you cannot rebuild a pipeline in a season.  I think that there are pitchers coming up that they can help the Twins around 2020-2021 time (Graterol, Enlow) but other than Berrios and maybe Romero there is not much there between then and now.  That's why getting someone like Darvish (or even better Cole or Archer) to cover that gap was essential.

 

They need to get there this season, and they should look at plan B and see what they can get by trading Dozier and Santana.  I still think that it was a huge mistake not trading Dozier last season (we don't know the offers, but even for De Leon+)  They better not repeat it.

 

If you are aiming for long term and sustainable, who thinks that signing Darvish to a 6 year contract is wise?  If you are looking at numbers, you know that signing a 31 year old pitcher with miles on his arm and body isn't really a 6 year deal...it's about a 2 year deal before the wheels start to wobble and eventually fall off.  Yes, there are exceptions and we have one on the team right now with Erv, but that is the exception.  Can you afford to absorb that contract for 4 more years if your goal is to have long term sustainable success?  Plenty of people have criticized Mauer's contract saying that it hamstrung the Twins by being unable paying top dollar for pitching.  If Darvish can't pitch until he's 37...36...35...how is that different?  I can tell you that the odds are not good for Darvish to be an effective starter for 6 years.  Actually, the odds are not good for Darvish to be an effective starter for half of that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins really have only one realistic chance of getting an ace in the next 3 years...his name is Fernando Romero.  Even Chris Archer is not a true "ace".  He's a #1, but not an ace.  With that being the case, you then need to have a solid and deep rotation.  Since there clearly is no way of getting a true #1, guys like Lynn, Cobb, etc., become more valuable......as long as the price reflects their true status as #3 type starters.  Either one deepens the rotation.

 

Don't sleep on Berrios!

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins wouldn't have been in the wildcard game last year without Dozier, so it's a stretch (if not just plain indefensible) to argue his production was "wasted." Nor would his production this year be "wasted" if the Twins are competitive. 

 

What I don't understand is - what would the armchair GMs on this site do if they got the job, went to Pohlad and said: "we need Darvish." And Pohlad said "no, but please do make a lowball offer for optics reasons. Thanks."

 

Exactly what magic trick would overcome this issue? To me it seems like an immature need to blast away at the front office, in the worst traditions of online discourse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can understand your arguments and there are some good points, but I will retain my position and say that $10million - what the Jays paid, is over paying for a pitcher like Garcia. We seem to have different lens and through mine I see a subpar pitcher while you see an average pitcher. We might not be too far apart, but I maintain that if we are going to sign someone then a Cobb or Lynn has the potential to make us better and Garcia has the potential to make us the same.

That's fair, but if you have to do 4/60 to land Cobb, maybe you'd rather do 1/10 (with a team option) for Garcia, especially if you believe in prospects arriving sooner rather than later.

[Thrylos]

 

even for DeLeon+ was his words. DeLeon was a nice prospect but not that great and perhaps the FO saw something (like injury history) that they didn't like and wanted someone else that was unavailable.

 

Let's see what kind of season De Leon has, and we can discuss it then.

 

Nobody knows what they were offered btw.   They were likely offered more/better than DeLeon, because Dozier > Forsythe whom they got for De Leon.

 

The point is that Dozier will not get them to the next level (He did not.  Fact.)  Same with Santana.  Young top of the rotation controllable pitching will.  And if they need to add some second level prospects (eg. Gonsalves, Kirilloff etc) to get it, in addition to the veterans, they should go for it.

[Thrylos]

 

 

The Twins wouldn't have been in the wildcard game last year without Dozier, so it's a stretch (if not just plain indefensible) to argue his production was "wasted." Nor would his production this year be "wasted" if the Twins are competitive.

 

a. it is not like they won the World Series and b. it is not like Dozier was not part of the 103 loss team as well...

[Teddy]

I for one don't have a problem with the patience they've exhibited, and if they don't land a new arm for the rotation, I'm OK with that too at this point. They have nine or ten guys who all could be capable, and out of those 9-10, a few will rise to the top. 

 

Ervin Santana

Jose Berrios

Kyle Gibson

Adalberto Mejia

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

Aaron Slegers

Stephen Gonsalves

Fernando Romero

Zach Littell

 

Granted, the last three on the list all need more AAA seasoning, but I'm OK with seeing what they have out of these 11 over the course of the first three months of the season, and if they have a need, make a deal in July.

 

[Loosey]

I agree 100%.  The front office has spoken a good game and has been savvy in the draft and supplementing the minors with deals the previous regime wouldn't have likely done.  

 

However, now when given the opportunity to really help this team take the next step they have continued to tinker around the edges and not go for the home run which is needed at times.  I trust these guys to improve and continue to bring in good minor league prospects, which is exactly why they should be confident to trade away those same type of players if the chance comes along, because they can find replacements.  

 

Are they trying to outsmart themselves?  Signing Yu Darvish would be one of those obvious adds that most fans were able to see would likely benefit the team.  But was it so obvious they didn't just go and hammer it with an offer Yu couldn't refuse or did they get cute?

 

There are still 3 pretty big name starting pitchers remaining.  So if they go out and get one of them, maybe all can be forgiven.  However, if they don't do anything to meaningfully upgrade the starting pitching staff when the window is opening to contend with the big boys, I will start questioning this new regime and wondering if it really is any different from the previous.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I for one don't have a problem with the patience they've exhibited, and if they don't land a new arm for the rotation, I'm OK with that too at this point. They have nine or ten guys who all could be capable, and out of those 9-10, a few will rise to the top. 

 

The problem with throwing 9-10 guys at a rotation to see what sticks is that in-between finding the guys that do stick (if that even happens) you have a lot of terrible pitching to get to that point.  

 

Make no mistake, this rotation and the options currently in house, are akin to giving up on the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I for one don't have a problem with the patience they've exhibited, and if they don't land a new arm for the rotation, I'm OK with that too at this point. They have nine or ten guys who all could be capable, and out of those 9-10, a few will rise to the top.

 

Ervin Santana

Jose Berrios

Kyle Gibson

Adalberto Mejia

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

Aaron Slegers

Stephen Gonsalves

Fernando Romero

Zach Littell

 

Granted, the last three on the list all need more AAA seasoning, but I'm OK with seeing what they have out of these 11 over the course of the first three months of the season, and if they have a need, make a deal in July.

Okay, take that list and remove Ervin for the first month or two, and probably even Trevor May too. (And keep in mind, Trevor May hasn't started a game in over 2 years.) And Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year, and only threw 71 innings last year. And of course Hughes is a huge wildcard.

 

Our season ending SP situation last year was shaky, and to lose Colon, have an injury to Ervin, and do nothing else? That's borderline irresponsible for a team with our offense (and even our mild pen upgrades) and contention expectations. This isn't 2013 anymore.

[Tomj14]

 

Okay, take that list and remove Ervin for the first month or two, and probably even Trevor May too. (And keep in mind, Trevor May hasn't started a game in over 2 years.) And Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year, and only threw 71 innings last year. And of course Hughes is a huge wildcard.

Our season ending SP situation last year was shaky, and to lose Colon, have an injury to Ervin, and do nothing else? That's borderline irresponsible for a team with our offense (and even our mild pen upgrades) and contention expectations. This isn't 2013 anymore.

So Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and a bunch maybe's. I would say irresponsible for sure.