Also, I'd feel a lot better about a move like this if it was in conjunction with spending some serious money on FA upgrades.  By itself, I worry about how much it actually moves the needle.  (And I like Archer a lot)

Kepler is cheaper, younger and has more years of control. Archer strikes guys out and is durable but that's about it. By bWAR, Kepler is better. fWAR, which relies on fip, likes Archer a lot more. Archer has been pitching in a very good pitchers park in front of a very good defense.

 

I think bWAR is probably a bit closer to the truth but our FO better have a pretty good understanding of them.

Are you suggesting Kepler is enough alone? I will take that bet.

 

Are you suggesting Kepler is enough alone? I will take that bet.

hahahahaha

Also, I'd feel a lot better about a move like this if it was in conjunction with spending some serious money on FA upgrades. By itself, I worry about how much it actually moves the needle. (And I like Archer a lot)

Right, you have to sign an OF then

 

Right, you have to sign an OF then

 

And probably another starter still.

Archer and Quintana are pretty good comps looking at the last three years. I would expect the Rays to wait for a similar return.

 

Are you suggesting Kepler is enough alone? I will take that bet.

No, I'm sure positional scarcity comes into this and the Rays are going to demand a big return. The concern is that he's not worth it and we end up making another Garza/Young trade in reverse.

 

I truly don't know how to value Archer. I don't think he deserves a Quintana, Sale etc type return. I don't think he's an ace. I think he's durable (really important) and he's benefited the last couple years from giving up fewer HRs than expected. I don't think he keeps that up, especially at TF.

If the Twins don't get Archer or overpay for him are we allowed to get the pitch forks out?

That’s Brian’s department.

If they could pull this off, sign another starter, and add an OFer I'll put my pitchfork in the hay mow.

If they could pull this off, sign another starter, and add an OFer I'll put my pitchfork in the hay mow.

I’d actually feel more comfortable if you just handed it to Brian.

 

If the Twins don't get Archer or overpay for him are we allowed to get the pitch forks out?

 

Not until we see what they come up with for an advertising campaign. 

 

If it's funny and interesting... All must be forgiven. 

 

If they could pull this off, sign another starter, and add an OFer I'll put my pitchfork in the hay mow.

There's no way they do all that

There's no way they do all that

If they deal Kepler and don't sign a good OF,I will be confused. Getting Archer and not really replacing Kepler doesn't move the needle.

There's no way they do all that

why? That's not in the least unreasonable.

 

Archer, Cobb, Carlos Gomez. One trade, 2 reasonable FAs.

 

Do we or do we not have a FO in place?

I’d actually feel more comfortable if you just handed it to Brian.

tines first?

 

why? That's not in the least unreasonable.

Archer, Cobb, Carlos Gomez. One trade, 2 reasonable FAs.

Do we or do we not have a FO in place?

Moving Kepler and adding Archer moves our payroll to 111m or so. I'm not sure how much Gomez would cost but Cobb is at least 12m/yr and probably a lot more. I don't think we're that kind of payroll. I would guess with Granite, Grossman and Wade the Twins would find someone to hold the fort over Gomez. Maybe we don't add Cobb and add a 4m OFer who can slug but not field? I dunno. I just think we're close to our payroll limit already.

Agreed, Archer alone isn't eating up that $20+ M they were looking to spend. Get another arm and/or an OFer. 

Moving Kepler and adding Archer moves our payroll to 111m or so. I'm not sure how much Gomez would cost but Cobb is at least 12m/yr and probably a lot more. I don't think we're that kind of payroll. I would guess with Granite, Grossman and Wade the Twins would find someone to hold the fort over Gomez. Maybe we don't add Cobb and add a 4m OFer who can slug but not field? I dunno. I just think we're close to our payroll limit already.

They supposedly offered twenty million to what's his name. They should have money left after acquiring Archer to sign a mid level guy.

Moving Kepler and adding Archer moves our payroll to 111m or so. I'm not sure how much Gomez would cost but Cobb is at least 12m/yr and probably a lot more. I don't think we're that kind of payroll. I would guess with Granite, Grossman and Wade the Twins would find someone to hold the fort over Gomez. Maybe we don't add Cobb and add a 4m OFer who can slug but not field? I dunno. I just think we're close to our payroll limit already.

Archer is at $6. And payroll can be $130 easy.

Sort of like the above plan.  We would be better off and outfielders are easier to acquire than front line pitching. 

A trade offer two weeks ago? Let me provide a reverse jinx and say I'm skeptical this news has any bearing. Tampa is not a motivated seller.

 

They supposedly offered twenty million to what's his name. They should have money left after acquiring Archer to sign a mid level guy.

We'll see, I guess.

 

This.  I expect us to get Garcia and Tillman and we'll get sold on how much their veteran presence and leadership will help a young team.

 

I thought we had Joe Mauer for our veteran leadership... Yeah right.

Tampa will get almost as much in archer's walk year. It's not happening, yet.

Pretty sure I "liked" the majority of posts in here. Might have a finger cramp now.

 

Since Darvish is out, this would be the next best thing in my eyes. Yes, giving up Kepler would hurt, but it feels worth it. Keeping Kepler and only adding a Cobb/Lynn doesn't move the needle enough for me. Though at this point they have to do something because Berrios to Gibson to start the season is awful.

 

Archer + Gomez is an upgrade where we need it the most...pitching. If they don't take a big swing for pitching they'd just be wasting another year of Kepler and the others anyway.

 

The cost mentioned before around here: Kepler, Gordon, Gonsalves/Romero plus something else if needed feels right to me. And the only one that really hurts me is Kep. I like others over Gordon and I don't think either of Gonsalves/Romero ever become as good as Archer already is, even if you don't consider him an ace. I think he's a two and I don't think either of those players reach that level. Plus you're getting four years of control. That's huge.

 

I really want this to happen. My untouchables would be Lewis, Buxton and Berrios. I'd also rather not include Enlow or Graterol, but not sure I'd consider them completely untouchable.

Archer for Sano. Straight up.

Agreed, Archer alone isn't eating up that $20+ M they were looking to spend. Get another arm and/or an OFer.

 

Span comes with Archer. There’s the $20M (and the OF).

 

Span comes with Archer. There’s the $20M (and the OF).

Don't forget the veteran leadership he provides. He's basically a steal at that price. 

1) I prefer trades to FA's for two reasons - You can guarantee the value of prospects long term. If you pay for a free agent, you know the money is gone. I'm down with an Archer trade, if it comes to that. It's worth a gamble IMO

2) I'm totally ok with trading for Archer if the centerpiece of the deal is the team's third best outfielder. 

3) Not a chance this deal happens

I really like Kepler and his upside, but .520 OPS career vs LHP is still concerning. Not sure how much more it takes to get Archer, but I would consider Kepler as the center piece in a deal for Archer.