Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[drjim]

But the free agent market is part of the game, and if they won't play in the deep end, or even close to it, they are at a significant disadvantage. Have we any evidence they can overcome that consistently?

 

We read here all the time that a mid market team goes in competitive cycles. That they can't afford to be great all the time. Well, here they are, nearing the peak years of great players, and they still did nothing last year, or so far this year, to fix their biggest problem.

 

If not now, when?

 

And are the same people that have told me for years that it is unrealistic to expect them to be great for more than five or six years in a row, now saying we should be patient, because they are building a team that can compete every year?

Should have been more clear, the slow pace of this market, not the prices is what is nonsensical here.

 

Twins aren't going to outbid better teams that are motivated and have nearly twice the revenue/payroll. They'll have to win the same similar sized markets do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't really understand what you are saying. If Darvish had no interest he would have told them.

 

Based on reporting, Twins had the second best offer out there, a representative offer. If Chicago or LA didn't match it, I suspect he would have come here.

So the Twins front office can't be expected to know/infer anything about a player's intentions, unless the player explicitly tells them? If so, they're out of their league.

 

And the Twins offer was basically the same as the Brewers, which languished for weeks because everyone knew it was insufficient to seal the deal for a small market. Everyone knew the Cubs could match it or beat it if they wanted, and they are widely understood to be a more attractive destination for a variety of reasons. The Twins offer thus was either very naive or it was just more of our standard bargain hunting. I am leaning toward the latter, but the new FO tried to sell it as more than TR would have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins aren't going to outbid better teams that are motivated and have nearly twice the revenue/payroll.

All evidence suggests the Twins could have done exactly that, landing the consensus top FA, at our greatest position of need, just by offering the consensus predicted contract (6/160 or thereabouts). It was a unique offseason in that regard, but the Twins apparently squandered the opportunity.

[Riverbrian]

 

Berardino:


https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/10/whats-next-for-twins-after-falling-short-in-yu-darvish-derby/

I can see why fans are upset. You don't call it a "priority" and then offer fewer years and ~$50 mil less than what most observers predict will be necessary to land the player. Adding Darvish wasn't a priority, "getting a bargain" was the priority, and it quite likely hurt the team, yet again.

 

My pitchfork is still in the hay bale but I do know where it is.

 

It is going to be interesting to see what happen's next and what happens next will be an important perception. 

 

This might be a teaching moment for the young front office duo. 

 

If they go from making Darvish a "priority" to signing nobody. The backlash will hopefully teach them that raising the expectation bar has consequences. 

 

If they go from making Darvish a "priority" to signing Tillman. The backlash is going to be a cementing of the hard earned "same old Twins" tag. At least... I... will not allow myself to be fooled again. Any benefit of the doubt that I have extended toward the new front office duo will be gone. When the 2019 version of Darvish shows up in the Twins rumor column... I will laugh out loud.  

 

If they go from Making Darvish a "priority" to trading for a comparable pitcher in value. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but wonder why they chose to pay with players/prospects instead of cash. 

 

If they go from Making Darvish a "priority" to signing a different Free Agent or Free Agents with the 20 million plus a year that they supposedly offered to Darvish. I'm willing to not second guess and see where the road leads. 

 

What the Twins do with the 20 Million they were going to spend on Darvish is going to be interesting and very telling. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So the Twins front office can't be expected to know/infer anything about a player's intentions, unless the player explicitly tells them? If so, they're out of their league.

And the Twins offer was basically the same as the Brewers, which languished for weeks because everyone knew it was insufficient to seal the deal for a small market. Everyone knew the Cubs could match it or beat it if they wanted, and they are widely understood to be a more attractive destination for a variety of reasons. The Twins offer thus was either very naive or it was just more of our standard bargain hunting. I am leaning toward the latter, but the new FO tried to sell it as more than TR would have.

I do think the best way to spin this is that Falvey and Levine are young, naive and still pretty inexperienced at this.

[Riverbrian]

 

If it turns out the Twins were unwilling to go past 5 years. They were either never really serious about signing Darvish or they were betting that nobody else would be willing to go past 5 years and they lost that bet. 

 

Either is unacceptable. 

 

Unless they have a Plan B. 

[Squirrel]

Then that's on the Twins to figure out before Feb. 10, and not get their fans hopes up in the meantime. Especially given their "personal connection" in Levine, there is no excuse for letting Darvish string us along.

Well, I guess I wasn’t ‘up’ about it so maybe my perspective is different than yours.

[lukeduke1980]

Depth remains a big concern. If Berrios turns his ankle and Gibson has a sore back we're calling Mejia our number one. Hyperbole, but stuff happens all the time where we start throwing anything against the wall like 'hey maybe Tyler Differ figured something out'. Real contenders don't walk such a fine line between contention and mediocrity.

[USAFChief]

I don't really understand what you are saying. If Darvish had no interest he would have told them.

Based on reporting, Twins had the second best offer out there, a representative offer. If Chicago or LA didn't match it, I suspect he would have come here.

I guess you can say Darvish was using the Twins, but that would be true of every negotiation ever. Personal connections are overrated here.

And none of the other starters were going to sign until Darvish did. (Which, unrelated to this, is why I don't really understand the angst of not doing something else, there were no other free agents ready to sign).

Objection your honor, none of these facts are in evidence.

[USAFChief]

Well, I guess I wasn’t ‘up’ about it so maybe my perspective is different than yours.

you weren’t hoping—expecting—the Twins to make a significant rotation improvement?

[ewen21]

One very basic fact the "get Darvish at all costs" crowd has not understood/acknowledged since jump street is that we would have needed to outbid the entire market to get him.  Whatever we would have offered would have been outdone or equaled by team more to his liking.  We would have had to have separated ourselves from the pack with an outrageous offer in order to entice him to come.  For him to sign with us we would have needed to thrown out plenty more than what he got.  Not a couple of million more, like 20 or 25 million more.

 

I would like to understand the rationale behind that for THIS player. What is it about THIS player??  Does he poop gold doubloons?  Someone please make me understand how a pitcher with 52 wins, who ends the season as a 32 year old and flopped horribly in the World Series makes our team better?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

To sign any free agent, you need to bid more than other teams.

[ewen21]

 

Objection your honor, none of these facts are in evidence.

 

What offer would Darvish had accepted from the Twins?

[ewen21]

 

To sign any free agent, you need to bid more than other teams.

 

You aren't understanding my point. 

 

Want me to explain it again?

[TheLeviathan]

 

What offer would Darvish had accepted from the Twins?

 

One that was more than the Cubs.

[Squirrel]

My pitchfork is still in the hay bale but I do know where it is.

 

It is going to be interesting to see what happen's next and what happens next will be an important perception. 

 

This might be a teaching moment for the young front office duo. 

 

If they go from making Darvish a "priority" to signing nobody. The backlash will hopefully teach them that raising the expectation bar has consequences. 

 

If they go from making Darvish a "priority" to signing Tillman. The backlash is going to be a cementing of the hard earned "same old Twins" tag. At least... I... will not allow myself to be fooled again. Any benefit of the doubt that I have extended toward the new front office duo will be gone. When the 2018 version of Darvish shows up in the Twins rumor column... I will laugh out loud.  

 

If they go from Making Darvish a "priority" to trading for a comparable pitcher in value. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but wonder why they chose to pay with players/prospects instead of cash. 

 

If they go from Making Darvish a "priority" to signing a different Free Agent or Free Agents with the 20 million plus a year that they supposedly offered to Darvish. I'm willing to not second guess and see where the road leads. 

 

What the Twins do with the 20 Million they were going to spend on Darvish is going to be interesting and very telling.

 

Great first line.

[twinssporto]

 

If it turns out the Twins were unwilling to go past 5 years. They were either never really serious about signing Darvish or they were betting that nobody else would be willing to go past 5 years and they lost that bet. 

 

Either is unacceptable. 

 

Unless they have a Plan B. 

The problem is that Plan B isn't really attractive at all.  Sure, we could get one or both of the other free agent pitchers but for the cost?  Not really overwhelming guys either.  Ugh!  I know we could trade away some of our other quality minor leaguers for the Tampa Bay guy (and lose a draft pick) but again I say ugh. I know there are numerous other scenarios that could play out but again I say Ugh. 

 

I'm working through the 5 stages of grief.  At stage 2 right now...Sorry. 

 

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

 

[Mike Sixel]

You aren't understanding my point.

 

Want me to explain it again?

People have answered your WS question over and over. SSS, and other answers. This player? He is, by every report on every website, and the money he got, the best starting pitcher out there. The Twins don't need another blah starter, they need very good starters. Nearly everyone but a handful of people here think Yu is that. As we can see by the deal he got, from a front office that is quite successful.

[Jham]

 

Objection your honor, none of these facts are in evidence.

Sustained.   

[Platoon]

The problem is that Plan B isn't really attractive at all.  Sure, we could get one or both of the other free agent pitchers but for the cost?  Not really overwhelming guys either.  Ugh!  I know we could trade away some of our other quality minor leaguers for the Tampa Bay guy (and lose a draft pick) but again I say ugh. I know there are numerous other scenarios that could play out but again I say Ugh. 

 

I'm working through the 5 stages of grief.  At stage 2 right now...Sorry. 

 

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

6. Soccer

FTFY

[ewen21]

 

One that was more than the Cubs.

So, we could have added 1 million to the Cubs offer and we would have won out.

 

Sheesh.

[Squirrel]

you weren’t hoping—expecting—the Twins to make a significant rotation improvement?

Hoping, but not expecting. I’ve said all along that Darvish wasn’t coming here. Maybe the best way to put it is my expectations were pretty low on this front. Now ... it’s not to say that my anger and disappointment won’t make an appearance at some point. If I see nothing when the 25-man is assembled come the start of the season? I think Brian nailed it in his post. What happens now will be more telling for me because I never thought Darvish would come here. As to the general question of the thread, will we ever make a big FA signing? I don’t know. I guess the answer for me is no, until we do.

[notoriousgod71]

 

The problem is that Plan B isn't really attractive at all.  Sure, we could get one or both of the other free agent pitchers but for the cost?  Not really overwhelming guys either.  Ugh!  I know we could trade away some of our other quality minor leaguers for the Tampa Bay guy (and lose a draft pick) but again I say ugh. I know there are numerous other scenarios that could play out but again I say Ugh. 

 

I'm working through the 5 stages of grief.  At stage 2 right now...Sorry. 

 

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

 

I've been at Stage 2 for 15 years.

[Squirrel]

To sign any free agent, you need to bid more than other teams.

Most of the time. It’s not unprecedented that the largest offer doesn’t win, but the small number of times that happens is definitely the exception to the rule.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, we could have added 1 million to the Cubs offer and we would have won out.

 

Sheesh.

 

Quite possibly...yes.  

 

You have a 0% chance if you underbid.

[Riverbrian]

 

Huh? There is zero evidence to suggest the Twins offer was better than 5/110 with no opt out. And while we weren't in the room and will never have "perfect" information, there is a fair expectation based on history that if our offer was indeed very close or better than the Cubs offer, it would have been reported in some fashion, somewhere.

The Twins and Brewers looking for FA bargains is probably some of the least questionable MLB reporting of the offseason.

 

I agree with you but Nick is right... We don't know.

 

Maybe the Twins offered 5/110 while the Cubs were talking 4/100 parameters. 

 

Maybe the Cubs jumped to 6 and the Twins were never given a chance to make a counter.

 

We just don't know. 

 

However... It is clear... Darvish won't be wearing a Twins Jersey. Regardless if we know what was offered or wasn't offered. There will be no denying that they failed unless...

 

They have a decent Plan B.  

[ewen21]

 

People have answered your WS question over and over. SSS, and other answers. This player? He is, by every report on every website, and the money he got, the best starting pitcher out there. The Twins don't need another blah starter, they need very good starters. Nearly everyone but a handful of people here think Yu is that. As we can see by the deal he got, from a front office that is quite successful.

 

Chicago is almost like LA was several years ago.  They won their Championship so they are going to be willing to take these kinds of risks no matter how impractical, and this one is rather impractical.  

 

I will watch with great interest how Yu Darvish performs these next few years.  I don't make many proclamations like this, but I am stunned with what I have read here the last couple of weeks on Darvish.  My GOD is he overrated.  It also seems as though no one can see or accept his near-imminent erosion of skills

[ewen21]

 

Quite possibly...yes.  

 

You have a 0% chance if you underbid.

 

My point is, we could have outbid them and still lost.  We would have needed to go considerably higher.

[ewen21]

 

I agree with you but Nick is right... We don't know.

 

Maybe the Twins offered 5/110 while the Cubs were talking 4/100 parameters. 

 

Maybe the Cubs jumped to 6 and the Twins were never given a chance to make a counter.

 

We just don't know. 

 

However... It is clear... Darvish won't be wearing a Twins Jersey. Regardless if we know what was offered or wasn't offered. There will be no denying that they failed unless...

 

They have a decent Plan B.  

 

If Darvish crashes and burns this year are you STILL going to say the Twins failed?

[Otto von Ballpark]

One very basic fact the "get Darvish at all costs" crowd has not understood/acknowledged since jump street is that we would have needed to outbid the entire market to get him. Whatever we would have offered would have been outdone or equaled by team more to his liking. We would have had to have separated ourselves from the pack with an outrageous offer in order to entice him to come. For him to sign with us we would have needed to thrown out plenty more than what he got. Not a couple of million more, like 20 or 25 million more.

Plenty of people have acknowledged that. What do you think all of the references to $150 million or $160 million mean? Those are guarantees, and the Cubs only guaranteed $126. Maybe the Cubs would have matched it, but who knows? No one matched Arizona's offer to Greinke. No one matched the Nationals offer to Scherzer. And who cares? Do the Twins have a direct interest in keeping the Cubs payroll down?