Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not at all. Everyone is making assumptions and there isn't one that's more valid than another. I think Darvish didn't want to play for the Twins. I can't blame him.

Just curious, but what do you mean, you can't blame him?

[DaveW]

 

yeah, I agree.  I liked what Mauer brought last year including what should have been gold glove winning defense.

Yeah, I mean it's kinda why I am all for signing him to a 2 year extension after this year (or even prior) as long as it's not much more than 9 mil or so a year. As nice as it would be to have a 50 HR guy at first base, those types aren't super easy to find (plus you have a DH spot in the AL anyways!)

I don't see anyone in the Twins system that Mauer is blocking.

Anyways my point being, yes the Twins paid a lot for Mauer, could he have 'lived up' to the contract more? Of course, but injuries happen, but it's far from the biggest disaster ever. And I still maintain his contract never prevented the Twins from being good, what really hurt them were stupid extensions over the years: Blackburn, Hughes etc and bad bad bad trades (or at least in how they panned out) Garza, Johan etc

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Crazy to think the Twins, coming off a playoff berth with expectations of more, could have actually landed the consensus top FA on the market, at our greatest position of need (SP), simply by offering the MLBTR predicted contract (6/160).

And they didn't do it.

They better have a darn good plan B.

or even the Twins Daily projected contract of 5/135, which still seems like a bargain to me

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, I mean it's kinda why I am all for signing him to a 2 year extension after this year (or even prior) as long as it's not much more than 9 mil or so a year. As nice as it would be to have a 50 HR guy at first base, those types aren't super easy to find (plus you have a DH spot in the AL anyways!)

I don't see anyone in the Twins system that Mauer is blocking.

Anyways my point being, yes the Twins paid a lot for Mauer, could he have 'lived up' to the contract more? Of course, but injuries happen, but it's far from the biggest disaster ever. And I still maintain his contract never prevented the Twins from being good, what really hurt them were stupid extensions over the years: Blackburn, Hughes etc and bad bad bad trades (or at least in how they panned out) Garza, Johan etc

His contract didn't stop us from doing anything

[bcs4]

 

So he did excellent in 2010.  Excellent in 2012 and excellent in 2013.  Then said, 'Hey, I'm tired of this, I'll get a concussion and then have a reason for not doing well for most of the rest of my contract?

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122170622.htm

 

[DaveW]

 

His contract didn't stop us from doing anything

Yup, and it's hard not for me to just 'eye roll' anyone who complains about it.

I'm also a Wild fan, and we can cry and complain all day about the Wild signing Parise and Suter, but at the end of the day, it got them some playoff game wins, some playoff series wins and put them as a contender (where as it would have been a very very very uphill road otherwise)

Oh, and they are still a playoff contender and have a shot at the cup as of today! Give me a GM/owner who WANTS to win a title versus one who just only cares about the bottom line, until the Pohlads actually do something....anything! to convince me otherwise I will just assume they only care about the $$$$

Which means I don't care or respect them as sports owners.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Oh, and the idea that "maybe the Twins beat the Cubs offer but Darvish turned it down anyway" is pure fantasy. Aside from the fact that the reporting is pretty clear (5 year offer, ~$110 mil), the MLBPA hates players turning down bigger contracts. Particularly in this environment, it would be a HUGE deal. Not to say Darvish couldn't do it, but it defies logic to think he could do it without any trace of a leak. The single revelation that Darvish turned down a larger offer alone could probably destroy the MLBPA's collusion argument, all by itself.

[bcs4]

 

Berardino:


https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/10/whats-next-for-twins-after-falling-short-in-yu-darvish-derby/

I can see why fans are upset. You don't call it a "priority" and then offer fewer years and ~$50 mil less than what most observers predict will be necessary to land the player. Adding Darvish wasn't a priority, "getting a bargain" was the priority, and it quite likely hurt the team, yet again.

 

I didn't see the offer. What was it? It might put this to rest.

[bcs4]

 

Oh, and the idea that "maybe the Twins beat the Cubs offer but Darvish turned it down anyway" is pure fantasy. Aside from the fact that the reporting is pretty clear (5 year offer, ~$110 mil), the MLBPA hates players turning down bigger contracts. Particularly in this environment, it would be a HUGE deal. Not to say Darvish couldn't do it, but it defies logic to think he could do it without any trace of a leak. The single revelation that Darvish turned down a larger offer alone could probably destroy the MLBPA's collusion argument, all by itself.

 

I thought that was Milwaukee's offer. Does the MLBPA get a copy of the offers? I'd think the offer would require confidentiality. Maybe not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I didn't see the offer. What was it? It might put this to rest.

Tons of reporting has them at 5 years, refusing 6. Then there is this:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/962418511900545024

 

The way contract offers are reported, $125 mil is a notable figure. No way that gets rounded down to $100 mil. Best case, the Twins and Brewers were probably at 5/110 $22 mil AAV, with no opt out (Levine is also on record elsewhere with his great disdain for opt outs).

 

That's not trying to land Darvish, that is trying to land a bargain. Which isn't always bad -- but it isn't always good either.

 

Maybe next winter, Harper and Kershaw at 6/150 can be our "priorities"...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought that was Milwaukee's offer. Does the MLBPA get a copy of the offers? I'd think the offer would require confidentiality. Maybe not.

The Twins offer was reported to be essentially the same as Milwaukee's.

 

Offers leak. A top FA turning down more money would definitely leak. And in a climate where players and agents are openly accusing teams of collusion, it defies logic to think that such an occurrence wouldn't leak.

[FormerMinnasotan]

At this point I’d doubt it. I’ll admit I am irritated we never fully go “all in”. If they fail to sign the likes of Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ( where they could probably sign them around 4 yrs $72-$75 mill) when we NEED a piece or 2 to compete. Also if they actually think it’s a value move to sign the likes of Jaime Garcia or Chris Tillman and “catch lightening in a bottle” and improve our staff they are continuing to either trying to fool us they are trying or lying to themselves to feel like they did well.

[nicksaviking]

Look, I'm upset/angry/disappointed that the Twins aren't going to be getting the one pitcher available that would most likely provide a reasonable chance at winning game 163, but I'm also upset/angry/disappointed by everyone trying to assume the Twins offer was 5/100 or whatnot.

 

We don't know; saying the Twins lowballed is a terrible argument because we have no freakin' idea. I get it, it's frustrating and it's hard to justify our stance without using hyperbole and unsubstantiated assumptions. However I hope everyone can stop pretending that they do know what the Twins offered long enough to come up with better arguments.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Look, I'm upset/angry/disappointed that the Twins aren't going to be getting the one pitcher available that would most likely provide a reasonable chance at winning game 163, but I'm also upset/angry/disappointed by everyone trying to assume the Twins offer was 5/100 or whatnot.

 

We don't know, saying the Twins lowballed is a terrible argument because we have no freakin' idea. None. I hope everyone can stop pretending that they do long enough to come up with better arguments.

Huh? There is zero evidence to suggest the Twins offer was better than 5/110 with no opt out. And while we weren't in the room and will never have "perfect" information, there is a fair expectation based on history that if our offer was indeed very close or better than the Cubs offer, it would have been reported in some fashion, somewhere.

 

The Twins and Brewers looking for FA bargains is probably some of the least questionable MLB reporting of the offseason.

[bcs4]

 

Just curious, but what do you mean, you can't blame him?

 

If I wasn't a Twins fan, I doubt that I'd play for the Twins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If I wasn't a Twins fan, I doubt that I'd play for the Twins.

That makes no sense, that players only sign with the teams they were fans of as children, or something.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

However I hope everyone can stop pretending that they do know what the Twins offered long enough to come up with better arguments.

Can we pretend to know what they didn't offer?

[Squirrel]

Might it be that Darvish said no to BOTH the offer and being a Twin? That he didn’t want to come here AND the offer wasn’t the best? While I think there is enough evidence to suggest their offer wasn’t as good as Chicqgo’s, I think there is also evidence he didn’t want to come here. He had an open invitation to visit Mpls and chose not to. But we’ll never know if a better offer could have persuaded him, and we’ll never know if a better offer wouldn’t have made a difference.

[Mike Sixel]

What we do know is that they did not sign him. That's the issue. Not why. Not if. But will they ever?

[Squirrel]

What we do know is that they did not sign him. That's the issue. Not why. Not if. But will they ever?

I disagree. I think why is a very important part of being able to answer if they ever will.

[nicksaviking]

Huh? There is zero evidence to suggest the Twins offer was better than 5/110 with no opt out. And while we weren't in the room and will never have "perfect" information, there is a fair expectation based on history that if our offer was indeed very close or better than the Cubs offer, it would have been reported in some fashion, somewhere.

The Twins and Brewers looking for FA bargains is probably some of the least questionable MLB reporting of the offseason.

There so no evidence that the Twins offered above or below 110M. So why are people arguing as fact the Twins lowballed?

 

We know they would not add the opt out. We are reasonably confident they wouldn't go six years. We know they didn't resign Giminez who may have been a key recruiter. There are other arguments to make, people pretending it's a fact that the Twins offered peanuts are only helping to undermine actual valid arguments.

[bcs4]

 

Tons of reporting has them at 5 years, refusing 6. Then there is this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/962418511900545024

The way contract offers are reported, $125 mil is a notable figure. No way that gets rounded down to $100 mil. Best case, the Twins and Brewers were probably at 5/110 $22 mil AAV, with no opt out (Levine is also on record elsewhere with his great disdain for opt outs).

That's not trying to land Darvish, that is trying to land a bargain. Which isn't always bad -- but it isn't always good either.

Maybe next winter, Harper and Kershaw at 6/150 can be our "priorities"...

 

"Believed to be" is the weakest source description. It's basically talk around the coffee pot. "Rumored to be" is stronger. next would be something like a "source familiar with the negotiations", and then it would be something like "several sources close to the negotiations". You may not believe what I'm saying, but my Dad was a reporter. Reporters watch source descriptions so they know how hard to work a lead. I hope that the offer is reported. I'm also pretty sure that FAs have lattitude when it comes to choosing a team, because I've heard of player decisions coming down to where they wanted to live. Regardless, I hope things start moving..

 

[bcs4]

 

That makes no sense, that players only sign with the teams they were fans of as children, or something.

 

Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Every player gets to choose their team based on the team that they liked as a kid. They also get to wear their favorite player's shoes. I called it. Infinity plus 1.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Every player gets to choose their team based on the team that they liked as a kid. They also get to wear their favorite player's shoes. I called it. Infinity plus 1.

Joking aside, if the Twins offered Darvish 5/135 plus the opt out, why wouldn't Darvish take that?

[bcs4]

 

Can we pretend to know what they didn't offer?

 

Can we pretend to want to know to pretend to make a point or not?  Maybe?

[bcs4]

 

Joking aside, if the Twins offered Darvish 5/135 plus the opt out, why wouldn't Darvish take that?

 

Do you know?

[Squirrel]

Joking aside, if the Twins offered Darvish 5/135 plus the opt out, why wouldn't Darvish take that?

I’m not defending anything here, but I don’t know if a better offer would have done it. Don’t know that it wouldn’t have, either. It’s not unprecedented for a player to take less to play somewhere specific. This is where wanting to know more from both sides and not being privy to such information can drive one to extreme despair! (Yeah, I’m joking. Mostly sort of.)

[DocBauer]

What we do know is that they did not sign him. That's the issue. Not why. Not if. But will they ever?

Great point. And one of many positive AND negative points I could copy over and over. (If I knew how, lol).

 

I am so disappointed I can't even tell you!

 

Negatives: The Twins had need and opportunity in a perfect storm year to make a major splash to really improve this team. Darvish was important. He was an important "get". And all the Twins had to do was improve "reported" offers a little bit to lock him up as a difference maker for this team for the next 3-4 years, live for a 5th year and hope on the 6th. Shame on them for not upping their offer, being more forward thinking, structuring a contract offer the right way, (Possibly with more money early). They could have pulled this off with only one team in their way, and so much to gain!

 

Positives: Two thing we still don't know entirely, and I still don't buy in to "leaks"...at this point anyway...as I've read different reports, 1] we don't know EXACTLY all the financial and contract terms, 2] we don't know, probably never will, how much, or how little, Darvish really wanted to sign with the Twins based on many factors. The Twins took a shot they have NEVER have taken before! Maybe they finished mere inches away from him signing a contract. The FO came from organizations that built their teams through the draft, prospect development, shrewd trades and some key trades. They have spoken often about building an organization that can consistently win and compete. Outbidding other teams, putting in options and opt-outs might be something they dislike, for various reasons. They see a longer term goal than us fans see, both for 2018 and beyond. And they are not done making moves yet.

 

Either or both could be true. I am massively bummed and disappointed right now. Honestly, potentially, a little pi**ed off right now. But I also get they are rebuilding this franchise from the top down with only about a year and a half on the job now. I love some of the moves they made last season. I loved some of the coaching changes and hope their most recent moves turn out the same way. I ended up loving their draft after a couple "what" moments. I really like what they have done to the pen lately.

 

In other words, as much as losing out on Darvish sucks, I'm not going to get overly despondent until I see what they do next. Next as in RIGHT NOW, as well as what takes place during the season to be. For whatever reason(s) we didn't land Darvish, I'm not going to lambast the FO or suddenly hate them until I see more. I don't think that's unreasonable.

 

We struck out in one big AB. Who and what is up Next? That's what I want to see.

[TheLeviathan]

No one is arguing it is a "fact" the Twins offered less.  Here are the facts we do know:

 

Darvish did not sign with the Twins.

 

The deal he did sign was considerably below expectations.

 

The Twins front office themselves acknowledge FA ultimately comes down to dollars and cents.

 

MLBPA and players are not going around refusing larger contracts because it sets a bad precedent and they are heavily pressured to get the best they can by their peers.

 

So is it possible the Twins offered more?  Sure.  It's also possible I could pitch better than Yu Darvish this year by inventing a magic potion.

 

But what is the far more likely answer?  The fantasy land being put forward where the Twins just, aw shucks, can't get anyone to sign here no matter how much they offer is tired.  And incredibly unlikely.  

 

Almost as tired as Mauer value discussions.  And about as unlikely as those discussions going away in the middle of threads that have nothing to do with Mauer.

 

We failed our priority in a free agency period rife with bargains.  Stop with the excuses.  Please.

[Twins33]

Joking aside, if the Twins offered Darvish 5/135 plus the opt out, why wouldn't Darvish take that?

Pretending I'm a player, I would personally choose the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs or Red Sox before I would even consider the Twins. They are easily better teams and that would be important to me. Obviously a good chunk of those teams weren't truly in on Darvish...but the Cubs are on that list.

 

I don't know if Darvish feels the same. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. He did choose the Cubs who we know offered opt outs and an extra year. We know the Twins didn't do either of those.

 

Again, putting myself as a player, I'd have to get 25-50M more guaranteed to consider the Twins over those teams so the 5/135 wouldn't cut it for me. It wouldn't surprise me if Darvish or other top FA's feel the same. Until the Twins become a consistent deep playoff contender I don't think they're going to be near the top of any top FA's list.

 

Darvish is probably the closest we'll get to a top FA in the next five years and it didn't happen. Kershaw and Keuchel aren't coming here next year.