Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[DaveW]

The worst part? This is as passive a market as we're likely to ever see, the Twins had plenty of spending money, and available players that fit those needs who had interest in coming here.

 

And we passed. There are no excuses for that.

Yup. They blew it. Unless they pull an archer trade out of thin air this will be known as the off season where Falvey truly showed us that under the Pohlads nothing really changes that much.

[DaveW]

Ahh, the first use of Occam's Razor that I've seen in the forum. Seems like you're making quite a few assumptions yourself. I don't think it's properly used. I'd say you've created a Straw Man.

Name the last BIG FA signings the Twins have had in the last 25 years. Let me know how many playoff series, and playoff games they have won during that time as well, also let me know if they don’t currently hold the record for consecutive playoff losses.

 

For goodness sakes man, it’s not like we are patriots fans crying about belicheck and brady, we are talking about a team that has the “new stadium” that they conned the city into paying for but have yet to win a playoff game since doing so.

 

One playoff series win in 25+ years is poor, no matter how many ways you try to dress it up. The majority of MLB teams have had more success during that time.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, not bad until Mauer's contract.

What have they won? Unless you are rooting for something other than winning, I don't get the answer.

[luckylager]

 

I didn’t say I did champ.

I said if the Twins offered more than the Chicago Cubs (spoiler Alert: they did not)

It would have been leaked or reported.

Aww... you called me Champ, how belittling. Again, you make make claims like you have some kind of inside information that the rest of us are not privy to. "It would have been leaked or reported"... you do not know that. You always make these statements. You have a track record of being very wrong.   

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

How do you know that the Twins didn't offer more?  Yes, I think Mauer kinda crippled the Twins for 4 years, and he seems like a perfect example of contract slacking. The longer the contract, the bigger the slack. A recipe for disaster.

It honestly is an application of Occam's Razor. Did the Twins best the Cubs offer both in terms of years and salary, and Darvish spurned them, or did Chicago simply make a better offer? I would argue that the latter is more likely. 

 

We'll have to disagree about Mauer and whether the Twins have been crippled the past few years. 

[DaveW]

It honestly is an application of Occam's Razor. Did the Twins best the Cubs offer both in terms of years and salary, and Darvish spurned them, or did Chicago simply make a better offer? I would argue that the latter is more likely.

 

We'll have to disagree about Mauer and whether the Twins have been crippled the past few years.

Yeah teams can overcome one shaky contract easy enough. I don’t believe that the Mauer contract adversely affected things in any way.

 

It’s not like the Twins were likely to go spend that money in other places anyways (esp as payroll has stayed more or less flat over the last several years no?)

[DaveW]

Aww... you called me Champ, how belittling. Again, you make make claims like you have some kind of inside information that the rest of us are not privy to. "It would have been leaked or reported"... you do not know that. You always make these statements. You have a track record of being very wrong.

never said I have inside info, just said that if the Twins offered more it would have been leaked. No reason for it to have not been leaked. Anyways I see that you have a personal issue with me, so this will be my last response to you in this forum.

 

Go Twins!

[luckylager]

 

never said I have inside info, just said that if the Twins offered more it would have been leaked. No reason for it to have not been leaked. Anyways I see that you have a personal issue with me, so this will be my last response to you in this forum.

Go Twins!

Yes, definitely a personal issue. 

 

[bcs4]

 

No doubt it will help the team. I just think over the next 2-3 years, Darvish will be the better pitcher and would have helped the team more. Heh, I probably should just stop ... for someone who really wasn't invested in him nor is disappointed he isn't coming here, just think he would have been better. And no doubt Lynn and/or Cobb would be better than what we've had. They would certainly be valuable ... having a rotation without typical 5 or AAAA types always is ... I just don't think it gets us past other teams who have better ... like the Astros ... and therefore would limit how far we get into the playoffs. But if you think one or both of those would be better ... good. I hope so, if we get one of them. It's a long season and so much could happen ... I'm just glad this part of it is coming to an end no matter what at this point!

 

I agree,The Twins are going to have to do a lot just to get a wild card. At least we'll get to watch Spring Training games pretty soon..

[bcs4]

 

It honestly is an application of Occam's Razor. Did the Twins best the Cubs offer both in terms of years and salary, and Darvish spurned them, or did Chicago simply make a better offer? I would argue that the latter is more likely. 

 

We'll have to disagree about Mauer and whether the Twins have been crippled the past few years. 

 

And I would say that when it comes to that kind of money, you might as well live where you want and play with a team that's a likely contender. I guess an Occam's Razor's beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[Nine of twelve]

My response to the signing ... meh. Not what I hoped to happen but not at all surprising.

 

My next hope would be that when we play the Cubs in Wrigley at the end of June, we face Yu and beat the crap out of the Cubs.

Might be interesting to see the Twins win a game or three then.

[Nine of twelve]

80m? I'd probably say yes in the next three years. Nine figures? No. Not until we get different owners.

I could see a 9-figure extension for Sano and/or Buxton if Sano and/or Buxton have big years in 2018 and/or 2019.

[Han Joelo]

With the Buffalo Bills making the NFL playoffs this year, the current record for playoff futility amongst North American sporting clubs is held by the Seattle Mariners at 16 seasons. During that time they have developed top prospects (Felix), signed Japanese players (Ichiro), made mega-trades (the Bedard debacle), and spent copious amounts on premium free agents (Cano, Cruz.)

 

They've also turned over their GM and their ownership, to no avail. While this example is a gross oversimplification of a complex question, it does perhaps illustrate how difficult the task is.

 

In the end, of course, this is all Mitch Garvers fault.

[Nine of twelve]

Also the FA market, baseball and the world was significantly different back in 1991....but the point still remains, the one time the Twins got aggressive in FA it actually did pay off and they won it all.

 

Since then what have they done? Ervin Santana on a solid but fair and not eye popping deal.

 

Resigned Puckett.

Gave Mauer a ton of money (right thing to do)

 

Other than that there just frankly hasn’t been any real big moves.

Keep in mind that they made Puckett the highest-paid player in baseball. For a few weeks, anyway, until Baltimore surpassed that with Ripken.

[TheLeviathan]

 

And I would say that when it comes to that kind of money, you might as well live where you want and play with a team that's a likely contender. I guess an Occam's Razor's beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

 

C'mon now, you invoked Occam's Razor and I don't think it's your friend here.  Again, the Twins FO have said themselves that dollars and cents decide these deals.  We decided not to beat that offer.

 

And, again, we easily could have.  You're not going to get any discounts on your tickets or your cable for it, it's just money that will go nowhere.  Meanwhile you'll endure a cavalcade of inferior starters throughout the year.

 

There really isn't any serious way to spin this as a positive result.

[Nine of twelve]

The worst part?  This is as passive a market as we're likely to ever see, the Twins had plenty of spending money, and available players that fit those needs who had interest in coming here.

 

And we passed.  There are no excuses for that.

Free agency is the anti-draft. The player chooses the team, not the other way around.

We didn't pass on Darvish. He passed on us.

[DaveW]

 

 

We didn't pass on Darvish. He passed on us (and likely a significantly worse deal in terms of years and total dollars)

Added on some context.

[Nine of twelve]

Free agency is the anti-draft. The player chooses the team, not the other way around.

We didn't pass on Darvish. He passed on us.

 

 

Added on some context.

That wasn't context you added, that was a guess.

[bcs4]

 

Yeah teams can overcome one shaky contract easy enough. I don’t believe that the Mauer contract adversely affected things in any way.

It’s not like the Twins were likely to go spend that money in other places anyways (esp as payroll has stayed more or less flat over the last several years no?)

 

Occam's Razor.  Argument From Ignorance. Straw Man.  Etc

[jimmer]

 

How do you know that the Twins didn't offer more?  Yes, I think Mauer kinda crippled the Twins for 4 years, and he seems like a perfect example of contract slacking. The longer the contract, the bigger the slack. A recipe for disaster.

yeah, slack in what way?  Are you suggesting Mauer slacked?

[DaveW]

 

 
 
That wasn't context you added, that was a guess.

Not really though.....especially seeing how it was reported the Twins offered 5 years and the Cubs (obviously) offered 6 years. I tend to trust Heyman on these things FWIW.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berardino:

 

From Levine calling Darvish a “priority” in November to recent comments by club owner Jim Pohlad, the Twins made no secret of their interest in the game’s top strikeout weapon among starters. At TwinsFest last month, Pohlad pronounced himself “totally on board” with a Darvish pursuit.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/10/whats-next-for-twins-after-falling-short-in-yu-darvish-derby/

 

I can see why fans are upset. You don't call it a "priority" and then offer fewer years and ~$50 mil less than what most observers predict will be necessary to land the player. Adding Darvish wasn't a priority, "getting a bargain" was the priority, and it quite likely hurt the team, yet again.

[bcs4]

 

Name the last BIG FA signings the Twins have had in the last 25 years. Let me know how many playoff series, and playoff games they have won during that time as well, also let me know if they don’t currently hold the record for consecutive playoff losses.

For goodness sakes man, it’s not like we are patriots fans crying about belicheck and brady, we are talking about a team that has the “new stadium” that they conned the city into paying for but have yet to win a playoff game since doing so.

One playoff series win in 25+ years is poor, no matter how many ways you try to dress it up. The majority of MLB teams have had more success during that time.

 

The reason that all of us are here is because we want the Twins to win more. All that I'm saying is that thay were a lot more fun to watch before the Mauer contract. I think the stats would bear that out.

[bcs4]

 

yeah, slack in what way?  Are you suggesting Mauer slacked?

Yes. Contract slacking.

[jimmer]

 

Yes. Contract slacking.

So he did excellent in 2010.  Excellent in 2012 and excellent in the first 100 games in 2013.  Then said, 'Hey, I'm tired of this, I'll get a concussion and then have a reason for not doing well for most of the rest of my contract'?

[bcs4]

 

C'mon now, you invoked Occam's Razor and I don't think it's your friend here.  Again, the Twins FO have said themselves that dollars and cents decide these deals.  We decided not to beat that offer.

 

And, again, we easily could have.  You're not going to get any discounts on your tickets or your cable for it, it's just money that will go nowhere.  Meanwhile you'll endure a cavalcade of inferior starters throughout the year.

 

There really isn't any serious way to spin this as a positive result.

 

Not at all. Everyone is making assumptions and there isn't one that's more valid than another. I think Darvish didn't want to play for the Twins. I can't blame him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Crazy to think the Twins, coming off a playoff berth with expectations of more, could have actually landed the consensus top FA on the market, at our greatest position of need (SP), simply by offering the MLBTR predicted contract (6/160).

 

And they didn't do it.

 

They better have a darn good plan B.

[DaveW]

 

The reason that all of us are here is because we want the Twins to win more. All that I'm saying is that thay were a lot more fun to watch before the Mauer contract. I think the stats would bear that out.

They were pretty fun to watch last year, which also fell in the Mauer contract, I get that you are trying to make a point, but just imagine if this team had ANY SP or bullpen help last year! Maybe we could have got a home game in the WC round and/or maybe have competed against the Yanks.

 

[DaveW]

 

So he did excellent in 2010.  Excellent in 2012 and excellent in 2013.  Then said, 'Hey, I'm tired of this, I'll get a concussion and then have a reason for not doing well for most of the rest of my contract?

He did pretty well last year as well, not all star or MVP like, but a 3.4 WAR from a 34 year old 1st baseman ain't bad IMO.

I think when people look back at Mauer's career his rough 3 seasons 14/15/16 will be the true outliers.

Even 14 and 16 weren't THAT bad as he still put up decent offensive numbers and more than 2 WAR each year. 15 was very disappointing but hardly disastrous.

[jimmer]

 

He did pretty well last year as well, not all star or MVP like, but a 3.4 WAR from a 34 year old 1st baseman ain't bad IMO.

I think when people look back at Mauer's career his rough 3 seasons 14/15/16 will be the true outliers.

Even 14 and 16 weren't THAT bad as he still put up decent offensive numbers and more than 2 WAR each year. 15 was very disappointing but hardly disastrous.

yeah, I agree.  I liked what Mauer brought last year including what should have been gold glove winning defense.