Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[Otto von Ballpark]

At the very least the Mauer contract is evidence that a long term contract for big $ is a huge risk. The risk in his case is that a player signed can be injured, or end up playing a position with numbers that don't justify big money. Slacking or not, he wasn't worth it.

Not really. 20.3 bWAR for Mauer, with a year to go. Doubt you will find an analyst who would say that's an unacceptable return on a comparable FA contract (or near FA extension).

 

It's not Mauer's fault the Twins farm system was bone dry for the first half of the deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Are people factoring in that Mauer was worth way more than his contract some years, or only the years he was worth less, when assessing the deal?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't defending the Twins... I was saying... I don't believe we know no matter what we cobble together from the bits and pieces.I was agreeing with Nick.

 

The "we can't know 100% for sure" crowd seems to be offering that as a defense/excuse for the Twins, though. Like if someone criticized Granite for missing 1st base because, hey, we don't know 100% for sure the Twins wouldn't have come back to beat the Yankees! Just like I think it is fair to assume the Twins go on to lose that game handily regardless of Granite's mistake, I think it's fair to assume the reported parameters are accurate for the purposes of this discussion.

[twinssporto]

 

To sign any free agent, you need to bid more than other teams.

Or offer/have some other intangible benefits that the player likes, i.e, other players on the team, coaching staff, city and ability to win a WS. 

 

Total guess at this point and pure speculation but I think Darvish decided on Chicago over the Twins for some of those other intangible reasons.  

[jimmer]

 

The "we can't know 100% for sure" crowd seems to be offering that as a defense/excuse for the Twins, though. Like if someone criticized Granite for missing 1st base because, hey, we don't know 100% for sure the Twins wouldn't have come back to beat the Yankees! Just like I think it is fair to assume the Twins go on to lose that game handily regardless of Granite's mistake, I think it's fair to assume the reported parameters are accurate for the purposes of this discussion.

It's like falling back on the notion that no one wants to play here.  Feeds the inferiroity complex some like to adopt and gives us a fall back excuse why this team never signs top notch FAs.

 

It's just as likely players are looking at this team and, regardless of our record last year, thinking this team isn't really ready to be true contenders.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm disappointed with the outcome.  I wish the Twins had made bigger initial offer, because I think that's the only way things would have turned out different.   I see at as Darvish not choosing the Twins than the other way around.  

 

There's a lot of assumption that the negotiation was somehow linear from the Twins to Darvish, and thus all the fault of his not signing is upon the Twins.  But I think it's far more likely that once Darvish had the Cubs and the Dodgers at years and dollars he could live with, he was negotiating exclusively with those two teams.   The Twins were probably on the outside looking in over the past couple of weeks.  The Twins may have very well indicated to Darvish that the would match or exceed any other offer, but it's also probably likely that Darvish didn't or wouldn't have given them the chance. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

What do you think of the Twins calling a Darvish signing a "priority" then? I am sure you personally were skeptical, but doesn't it still seem a little disingenuous?

I didn't think it was likely either, but then when the market turned out all weird, I thought, hey maybe the Twins were on to something and are prepared to capitalize. So it is a little disappointing to learn that no, we weren't.

I don't know what I call it. Party line talk? Disingenuous? Yeah, but that's nothing new. In today's world we hear 'promises' from all kinds of people that say it just to paint themselves well. I think cynical is a better word than skeptical in my case, at least when it comes to this kind of thing, and politics, and heads of corporations and ... I guess I've gotten much more particular and narrow about who and what I put my faith in these days. As I said, I think cynical is more appropriate. And, as I've said so many times before, there are just too many other things on my plate right now, that this seems quite a minuscule thing to spend my energies on in comparison. And I don't say that to belittle anyone who cares more about than I do. I just can't get myself 'up' for these kinds of things. But I do still hope ... I just ultra-manage my expectation.

 

Don't mean to be heavy-handed with that answer ... but that's just how I am when I view these things.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or offer/have some other intangible benefits that the player likes, i.e, other players on the team, coaching staff, city and ability to win a WS.

 

Total guess at this point and pure speculation but I think Darvish decided on Chicago over the Twins for some of those other intangible reasons.

That's even more reason we should have been more aggressive with the money factor, though.

[ewen21]

 

Mauer was having well on his way to having his 2nd best season of his career in 2013 before he got hurt.  This was after having a great bounce-back season in 2012. His decline didn't start in 2011. Anyone watching him play could see that.

I don't agree.  He had already begun roll over everything he pulled on the ground by then.  His BABIP was unrealistically high and he was coming to the end of his catching days, injury or not.

 

As soon as 2011 happened, Mauer became a slap hitter.  He became addicted to hitting the ball to left field and all but stopped turning on the baseball.  What followed in advanced scouting really did him in and he had been resistant to change, until finally he started trying to drive the ball into right and right center more as this last year advanced.

 

My biggest beef with Joe is it never appeared that he worked to improve strength and conditioning during the winter.  Never really looked to me that he was strong going into a season.

[bcs4]

 

Not really. 20.3 bWAR for Mauer, with a year to go. Doubt you will find an analyst who would say that's an unacceptable return on a comparable FA contract (or near FA extension).

It's not Mauer's fault the Twins farm system was bone dry for the first half of the deal.

 

I haven't said that Mauer wasn't worth signing to a contract based on his history. I'm saying that long term contracts for big money don't make sense. I think MLB is starting to realize that.

[Mike Sixel]

I haven't said that Mauer wasn't worth signing to a contract based on his history. I'm saying that long term contracts for big money don't make sense. I think MLB is starting to realize that.

Darvish was just signed to a long term contract. Is he an exception?

[laloesch]

I totally understand.  We just got a brand new puppy on Friday and I'm even mad at the poor little thing.  Who gets angry at a puppy???

 

Wow how old? Is he six weeks?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins may have very well indicated to Darvish that the would match or exceed any other offer, but it's also probably likely that Darvish didn't or wouldn't have given them the chance.

Then why make essentially the same offer as the Brewers, just 3 weeks later?

 

If Darvish was prejudiced against the Twins to start with, I don't blame them for ultimately not being able to change his mind. I do blame them, however, for not even trying (which the late Brewers match seems to represent).

 

If you really want a job that other people are probably more qualified for, wouldn't you want to work harder and be more aggressive in your effort? Or do you just recycle your old resume, and show up at the same time as everyone else?

[Riverbrian]

 

You're basically admitting that no matter what you cannot be wrong on this topic.  It is simply impossible.

 

That is the kind of arrogance I like!  You're a good dude, Riverbrain!

 

I give points for effort. I will support GM's that crash and burn on occasion. I will not support GM's who just lay there. 

 

 

I try to keep my convictions no matter if I was right or wrong. I've been saying crap for years on this site and I do my best to own whatever I type. I"ve been Pro-Darvish and if I am wrong about him. I will never dodge those convictions. 

 

I've been saying that signing Darvish could go horribly wrong because that is the nature of free agency... but the Twins should do it anyway because they need a top line guy and he was the toppest of the top line guys available in my opinion. Free Agency isn't about value for every single year of the contract... it's about meeting the price that gets the deal done.... If you want the Player. 

 

Free Agency comes down to wanting a player or not wanting a player. If you only want one player... you must pay the price to get that player and it could get expensive if he is the only player you want because you gave yourself no leverage by identifying other options. 

 

Low balling or hard lining the only free agent on your list is naive. 

 

Now if they have two legitimate options.. that changes the dynamic a little. You have a fall back option if things don't work with the other option.

 

This is what I'll be waiting on now.  There better be something!!! 

 

. 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I don't agree.  He had already begun roll over everything he pulled on the ground by then.  His BABIP was unrealistically high and he was coming to the end of his catching days, injury or not.

 

As soon as 2011 happened, Mauer became a slap hitter.  He became addicted to hitting the ball to left field and all but stopped turning on the baseball.  What followed in advanced scouting really did him in and he had been resistant to change, until finally he started trying to drive the ball into right and right center more as this last year advanced.

 

My biggest beef with Joe is it never appeared that he worked to improve strength and conditioning during the winter.  Never really looked to me that he was strong going into a season.

His BABIP in 2013 was .383, yeah high, but he'd seen it in the .370s before, he'd seen it over .360 a few times and over .340 multiple times. .383 wasn't out of nowhere.

 

And as far as him slapping balls.  His ISO was 153 (his 3rd best ever). His slg% was his 2nd best ever.  Both higher than they were in 2010. His wRC+ was his 2nd best of his career.

[bcs4]

 

Darvish was just signed to a long term contract. Is he an exception?

 

To what? According to half the participants in the discussion, he went for less than he should have.

[TheLeviathan]

Man, you'd think in an offseason where our rotation is a wreck, the team and ownership openly stated their intent to be aggressive, the team was in the final running for the player, and the player signed for much less than expected.....that it would eliminate all the excuses. 

 

And yet here we are with people will still finding ways to give the team cover for failing to get it done.  The rotation is still in shambles with ST right around the corner and they had a prime opportunity.  

 

If you can't fault them now, at what point can you just admit your objectivity is shot?

[jimmer]

 

To what? According to half the participants in the discussion, he went for less than he should have.

He's asking about his contract in regards to length not cost.  Read what you wrote and how he responded.

[Squirrel]

Moderator reminder: Please talk about Mauer in another thread, unless there is a direct correlation to do so here. And I haven't seen a direct correlation. This is a 'we didn't sign Darvish' thread. Thank you one and all.

[Riverbrian]

 

The "we can't know 100% for sure" crowd seems to be offering that as a defense/excuse for the Twins, though. Like if someone criticized Granite for missing 1st base because, hey, we don't know 100% for sure the Twins wouldn't have come back to beat the Yankees! Just like I think it is fair to assume the Twins go on to lose that game handily regardless of Granite's mistake, I think it's fair to assume the reported parameters are accurate for the purposes of this discussion.

 

I didn't know we had a crowd.

 

We feel a little out numbered. 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Moderator reminder: Please talk about Mauer in another thread, unless there is a direct correlation to do so. This is a 'we didn't sign Darvish' thread. Thank you one and all.

It came up because someone mentioned signing people to long contract is a bad idea because of players slacking off after they get the contracts and Mauer was used as an example.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I haven't said that Mauer wasn't worth signing to a contract based on his history. I'm saying that long term contracts for big money don't make sense.

How so? Mauer gave a very reasonable rate of return on his contract. If anything, he's actually a pretty good example of a player performing very well in the first few years when a team most needs it, and still contributing in a reduced fashion in the last few years when later signings and younger players should be expected to pick up the slack.

[Squirrel]

 

It came up because someone mentioned signing people to long contract is a bad idea because of players slacking off after they get the contracts and Mauer was used as an example.

I know ... but now there are specific posts talking about Mauer ... please start a new thread for that as not to ... well, sidetrack ... this one.

[twinssporto]

 

Wow how old? Is he six weeks?

It's an eight week old yellow lab.  Just hijacked a yellow lab photo off the internet.  He wants to keep a low profile. 

[beckmt]

I think now it is how the Twins spend the offered money.  If they sign Buxton and Sano to long term deals and invest in some more decent pitching I can live with it.  If they trade for another decent starter, fine.  If they just do little but put bandaids on the starting staff and save the money, I have my pitchfork at ready.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is Chris Archer the Twins best chance for a starter? Too much competition?

 

Anyway, I'd be shopping for probably 3 starter this off-season. I hope Santana comes back strong, but you never know. I don't see a real reason to hang onto Gibson. He's kind of a 'meh' to me.

 

The Hughes contract should be trade-able. Don't know what we'd get, player-wise. I just don't like him using up the roster spot.

Hughes contract isn't even close to tradeable at this point.

Maybe if he shows he's healthy and pitching ok for several months.

 

Ask yourself if the roles were reversed, under what circumstances would you want the Twins to trade FOR Hughes?

[Nine of twelve]

To sign any free agent, you need to bid more than other teams.

But for Darvish we would have had to outbid what he got from the Cubs, and then outbid the Cubs' bid that outbid our bid that outbid what he got from the Cubs. So it wouldn't have been $1 more than what he signed for. It would have been many millions more than what he signed for.

[ewen21]

 

His BABIP in 2013 was .383, yeah high, but he'd seen it in the .370s before, he'd seen it over .360 a few times and over .340 multiple times. .383 wasn't out of nowhere.

 

And as far as him slapping balls.  His ISO was 153 (his 3rd best ever). His slg% was his 2nd best ever.  Both higher than they were in 2010. His wRC+ was his 2nd best of his career.

Being a daily watcher of this team, I can look at the numbers with a more discerning eye.  YOu know as well as I do that a majority of doubles were seven iron punch shots chipped into the left field corner so that made his ISO look a little better.

 

We clearly don't agree.  I think he took a huge step backward in 2011 and really never was the same after that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Just our luck, now we've got puppy dogs hijacking threads. What is this worl----

 

Hey wait, bring on the puppies!

[ewen21]

 

But for Darvish we would have had to outbid what he got from the Cubs, and then outbid the Cubs' bid that outbid our bid that outbid what he got from the Cubs. So it wouldn't have been $1 more than what he signed for. It would have been many millions more than what he signed for.

 

They would have jacked us up to get him.  The only way we could have gotten Darvish is to make an offer outside of what the Cubs would consider.  We would have needed to go considerably higher.

 

Don't know why people insist on going hypothetical when we are talking about THIS SITUATION.  Clearly, Darvish had his sights set on certain markets and ours was not one of them.