Article: The Darvish Contingency Plan

[Dave The Dastardly]

Now that we've been knocked out of the Darvish Derby, I hope we don't make a deal just to make a deal so the front office can claim a "win" in free agency. I'm thinking about a couple past Rule 5 moves here...

[cmoss84]

 

I get that nobody really wanted to hand out that 6th year, I really do.

 

That said, it's a down market where the big spenders (Boston, NY, LA) weren't competing for Darvish. The Twins have a desperate need for a top of the rotation starter, and $21 M annually plus incentives seems like a very agreeable price. It feels like missed opportunity.

 

Heres to holding out hope for a trade.....  

Didn't the Dodgers offer a 6 year deal as well? It sounds like (who knows if it's true) we were one of a handful of teams that offered $100 million + contracts. I don't see how people are upset with that. He chose the Cubs over us and those other teams. I don't fault our FO and I don't fault Darvish for going the Cubs. Why wouldn't you want to? 

That being said, we better get on it and sign a FA pitcher or two, or this is going to be a tough year. 

[mikelink45]

If you have  followed my posts (rants) I am not unhappy.  Good luck Cubs.  I do not know about the other pitchers - of course on an early posting I said why Garcia is an absolutely nooooooo for me.  One good year - 2015, lets go young.  See what our minor league pitchers can do and look at 2019 if they cannot perform.  

 

Lynn or Cobb for one or two years is okay, not my choice, Archer is preferred, but make sure we can afford him and trading Kepler is okay.  

 

The best thing is, I do not have to read anymore Darvish essays.  He did not want us and I did not want him.  

[rghrbek]

Listen, I wanted the Twins to sign Darvish.  If we offered basically what the Cubs did, then I am happy.  Anything more, I think would have been irresponsible.  I think Darvish will be good, not great, for 3 to 4 years of that contract.  I am not going to be mad at the FO, for Darvish choosing the better club.

 

Lots of speculation about the twins now trying to make some trade with the D-backs or Rays on this site.  Call me skeptical.  I believe in our FO, but I also don't think they have the stones to trade our high end stuff and an MLB asset for a pitcher.  Most of our newly ranked upside is our young players, who are unproven for the most part.  If they can find someone willing to take those folks with a Kepler, I am good with that.

 

I just don't think it's reality.  I am disappointed but not mad.  If we get Cobb or Lynn, fine, just don't think we are going to get an archer or a Grenkie type player in a trade.

I hope Berrios will improve (which I think he will), and scrap heaps like Gibson can build off the month plus he had of quality pitching (which he won't).

 

I hope I am wrong on all accounts

[Squirrel]

 

 

The best thing is, I do not have to read anymore Darvish essays.  He did not want us and I did not want him.  

There will still be Darvish threads to read (or ignore). Three so far today have been started ...

[mudcat14]

I think it would be pointless for the Twins to spend millions in dollars or prospects for anyone who doesn't slot in as staff ace.  I only see three possibilities to do that now.

 

Chris Archer - Would definitely cost Kepler and at least a couple high-value prospects.  Not ideal.

 

Jake Arietta - Maybe for a high dollar 1-year deal to prove his value, but I think there's a reason the Cubs have barely spoken to him and gave his money to Darvish.

 

Zach Greinke - Owed $138.5mil  over the next four years, I think the Twins would have to commit to at least 100 of that but he could probably be had for a less than expected return.  Maybe Gordon and a lesser prospect.

 

Otherwise they're probably better off taking a chance on someone like Tillman on the cheap and seeing what the new regime's changes to our pitching development operations can produce in year #2.     

[bighat]

 

I’d rather look for really short-term deals and hope someone steps up.

 

If I know Twins baseball, that's what they're going to do.

 

Trevor Cahill

Andrew Cashner

Jaime Garcia

Ubaldo Jimenez

Wade Miley

Edinson Volquez

Anibal Sanchez

 

I'm 99% sure the Twins are gonna sign one of those guys. They've got "Twins 1-year deal" written all over them.

[darin617]

Why hasn't anyone brought up making a trade with Houston for a starting pitcher? Once they traded for Gerrit Cole they have 7 starting pitchers on their team.

 

I would expect Charlie Morton & Collin McHugh would be available. Neither top tier but would not cost much in terms of prospects. As well Houston would be open to a trade to replenish prospects after making the Cole & Verlander trades.

[jimmer]

Yeah, the Astros still have a very good farm system

[Dantes929]

 

I suspect we’ll dumpster dive again in the hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. And in the meantime, we can always fall back on “there’s always next year”

There is some talent on this team and appears to be some near ready talent in the minors and lets not forget that we have the same team we did last year except hopefully a year better and with better bullpen talent.    That is why I am not giving up on this year but I am ok with "there is always next year".    Its what I love about baseball.   I  felt it even after 87 and 91.   Its the baseball fan anthem.

 . As for Cobb, I just see him as the next best FA to Darvish. Lynn would not be a fit here except maybe a short 1-2 year deal and Arrieta is toast. Cobb is not a difference maker, no, but he would be 1 of our top 3 starters.

Being one of our top three starters probably would place him in the difference maker category.     I said as soon as the year was over that if we could just get Cobb and a reliever and be done I would consider it a success so I still feel that way.  The true odds were that we wouldn't get that much.   Same team as last year with a better starter added, a better reliever added, and May and some young guys waiting in the wings.  The big downer for me wasn't losing out on Darvish but losing Santana for 12 weeks.     I will say for Darvish though that my first sights of what it would take to sign him was 175/5 so I maybe could have swallowed 150/6.    Is it wrong for me to hope he is a bust in Chicago?

[Puckett34]

 

 

 

 

[Rosterman]

We should've resigned Chris Gimenez!

 

[Thrylos]

Sounded like Darvish wanted "the big city", since he has been waiting for the Yankees and Dodgers.  Guess he thinks that Chicago is the same as LA or NYC.  He'll get what he deserves.

 

For the Twins should be Archer or bust.  Nobody else out there is good enough for them to content deep into the post-season, and if they do not content deep into the post-season, they might as well, put out the for sale sign, shop Dozier and Santana (when his finger heals), and play the kids to see what they have...

Edited February 10, 2018 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

 

  He'll get what he deserves.

 

 

What does he deserve?

[NewClearHarley]

 

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.  I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.  If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

I want archer a lot but even I think  that is too much. If that is what Archer commands - trade them something less for Odorizzi and sign Cobb. For Archer, I'd do Thorpe/Kepler/Gordon and offer to take on Denard's contract.

[jimmer]

 

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.  I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.  If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

Archer is already a stud.

[cmoss84]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-signs-with-cubs/c-266253950

 

This article says the Dodgers offered a six  year deal as well. We are not the only ones he passed up. 

[drjim]

Taking a step back:

 

1. Really hard for Twins to outbid large market teams (who can eat dead years much easier).

 

2. Hard for the Twins to go 6 years on a really good, but not elite starter.

 

3. Darvish signed with a better, more competitive team, in a bigger market, and in the easier league. Bigger contract aside, seems kind of a no brainer.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I'm not sure what to make of Darvish's reported contract vs. what the Twins could have offered, because  the AAV clearly is lower than expected, and if they didn't offer more than $21M/year that seems like a big mistake - but would we have wanted them to top that total value if they weren't willing to go six years? That would have meant topping $25M/year over five years. And depending on how easy the reported incentives from the Cubs are for Yu to reach, the $21M/yr actually may not be the right point of comparison. In other words, there's a way to read these numbers where I understand why the Twins would balk.

 

Arrieta might be the most interesting domino to watch now. He seems to be perceived as the closest thing to Yu's tier among free agents, but also something seems to be keeping teams away, presumably more perceived risk of fast decline. With Darvish's deal known, I wonder if a shorter deal for Arrieta at slightly higher AAV would end up being a compromise - palatable to teams and ostensibly still a win for Boras.

 

The Twins' new pitching analytics guru came from the Rays. If they acquired any of Cobb, Archer or Odorizzi I would tend to trust their valuation of whichever one pretty confidently - though perhaps that would also help the Rays' case to get more value back in trade for one of the latter two, since the teams might be assumed to value these guys similarly.

 

I think I recall a stat geek wrote somewhere about Odorizzi having a high swing-and-miss rate that hadn't translated into great K rates or overall performance yet. That seems like an interesting indicator of some remaining upside.

[nicksaviking]

Taking a step back:

1. Really hard for Twins to outbid large market teams (who can eat dead years much easier).

2. Hard for the Twins to go 6 years on a really good, but not elite starter.

3. Darvish signed with a better, more competitive team, in a bigger market, and in the easier league. Bigger contract aside, seems kind of a no brainer.

But they've always known that they'd have to pay more than the glitzy teams to get the same player.

 

So why make a spectacle all off season if they werent planning on making the significantly best offer?

[Tommygun921]

Only way I'd trade Kepler to TB is if it's straight up for Archer. I think sending Kepler, Gordon and either Gonsalves or Romero would be ridiculous.

[mikelink45]

 

There will still be Darvish threads to read (or ignore). Three so far today have been started ...

I have enjoyed your responses to my posts.  I love to write posts that might agitate and get discussion going.  Thank you for reading what I write and responding with interesting and challenging posts.

 

[drjim]

But they've always known that they'd have to pay more than the glitzy teams to get the same player.

 

So why make a spectacle all off season if they werent planning on making the significantly best offer?

Good question. I never thought they had much of a chance to sign him, similar to Ohtani.

[jorgenswest]

At this late point hopefully they get a pitcher at a little less cost than originally expected. Some team might react and overpay but if the Twins get Lynn/Cobb for 3 years instead of 4 or 5 or Garcia/Tillman on a 1 year deal they get help this year and still can pursue that starter in trade.

 

It is critical that a couple of prospects take a big step forward towards top 20 mlb so that the Twins have the currency to make that deal.

[Blake]

The Cubs offered a good contract and Darvish has the chance to play for Joe Maddon on a team that won the World Series just a couple of years ago.

 

I have to believe players looks for more than just dollars when it comes to signing a contract.

 

[Winston Smith]

 

What does he deserve?

$126 mill I think.

[Oxtung]

After looking at Greinke's remaining contract I am even more disappointed that the Twins didn't get Darvish.

 

While Greinke is a better pitcher he's not $10M more per year better and we also miss the early years with the highest probability of great seasons. Oh yeah, we also have to give up prospects. Remind me how this is better than just signing Darvish?

 

I guess at this point I'd like the Twins to .... I don't even know. None of the options are appealing at this point.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

What does he deserve?

May we get what we want, may we get what we need, but may we never get what we deserve.

[DocBauer]

Disappointed and upset. As I stated in the other post, we'll never know the final offer or if Darvish really wanted to come here at all. (Honestly, I never thought he wanted to). Shame on the Twins if they close and didn't blink.

 

That being said, I'm OK with a trade. I actually think I like Odorizzi more than Archer. Either way, I'm really not in on trading Kepler, and not just because I really believe in his game and potential. I'm also not sure there is anyone close to replacing him, which opens up another can of worms. To me, a trade is 4 or maybe even 5 quality prospects and keep the ML team intact.

 

I much prefer money be spent at this point on either Lynn or Cobb. Honestly, I'm torn between both of them. They are not Darvish, but as I've stated before, they move the needle. 3 or 4 year deal or a 1 year to enter the market again? That's a different question.

 

But I make the move for one of them. I then try for a 1 year deal on Garcia. Not interested? Then go to the next 1 year option. At this point, you lose a draft pick in the upper 20's. The system can afford that. You keep the roster and milb system intact for depth, competition, promotion and trade depth this year, next offseason, and you STILL deepen your rotation.

 

You steel yourself for the temporary loss of Santana and any lingering issues, if they surface, and await a return of May. If nothing else, you help build a bridge to gain more time for Gonsalves and others to get ready.

 

Can you imagine a couple positive signings and come mid season the Twins actually have enough depth to trade a pitcher, (Gibson or Mejia as possibilities), or milb players, relievers, or a combination thereof to add an important piece or two?

 

Make a couple signings. Keep the system and ML roster intact. You help move the needle and build more depth. THEN you make additional moves as you can.

[darin617]

 

If they overpay TB in terms of prospects to get Archer or Odorizzi rather than overpay Darvish straight cash homey I'm going to be upset.

You  can't overpay for someone who doesn't want to come here. Up to $150M. Not sure the terms since they are not public yet.