Article: The Darvish Contingency Plan

[TheLeviathan]

 

A big market signed him for a pretty big contract.

 

Now you're not even trying.  Or trying too hard.

[Otto von Ballpark]

“By definition doesn’t a player stay with you if he’s performing at a value less than what you’re paying him and he’ll walk if he’s performing at a value above it?” Levine said.

 

I haven't yet been "sold" on the new Twins regime, but I don't understand the controversy over that remark.

Because he is comparing apples to oranges. Obviously, 6/126 without an opt out is better for a team than 6/126 with an opt out (assuming the player is good enough for that range of contract, of course).

 

But that's not the choice. It is more like 6/150 without an opt out, versus 6/126 with an opt out. Or, you don't get the player without the opt out, versus you do get the player with it.

 

The opt out isn't intrinsically bad for a team. Just like a no-trade clause or anything else. It's all about how you value it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Now you're not even trying.  Or trying too hard.

I can't wait for the Twins to offer Bryce Harper a 5/110 next offseason

[TheLeviathan]

 

I can't wait for the Twins to offer Bryce Harper a 5/110 next offseason

 

Only to be beat out by Cleveland's 5 year 110,000,000.05 offer and we'll be told how no one wants to live where it's cold, we got beat out by a big market, and that 5 cents would have crippled our future.

[NewClearHarley]

Here is a list of potential FA outfielders we could sign if we trade Kepler++ in a deal for Archer:

 

First off I expect we could reduce the prospect load necessary to land Archer if we would eat Denard Span's contract - not to mention bringing him back would create good will with the fan base.

 

other names to consider:

 

Melky Cabrera - I don't like him but he could replace some of the lost offense

Either CarGo - Go-Go particularly could also provide some reunion positivity

JD-Mart - not sure we could afford him on long deal but if he'd settle for 1-25 on market-reset deal?

Maybin - I love this signing because it'd give us another speed/OBP option who could hit on either end of the lineup card

Seth Smith - cheap platoonable power bat, see also: Rasmus, Colby

 

[NewClearHarley]

 

Any idea on what it would take to get McHugh from Houston? 

 

Rosenthal suggested Twins might have interested in trading for him after the Darvish news broke.  The Dodgers basically have 7 starters right now so it seems like it would make a lot of sense. They're ML team is loaded, so maybe they'd be looking for some high-upside, high-risk prospects who are further away to continue their window.  Either way, the price has to be considerably cheaper since McHugh isn't as good as Archer, is a year older and has fewer years of team control (at likely at more money).  Maybe most importantly, Houston isn't in a situation like Tampa Bay where they'll only trade him if they can get a franchise-saving return that's worth the risk of not having Archer while also trying to build a new stadium. 

I mentioned earlier that either McHugh or Peacock would be a nice get from Houston, not sure they want to risk their depth with both Keuchel & McCullers having injury problems in their recent history but either would be a solid addition to our rotation at a much cheaper price than Archer would command.

[jorgenswest]

I mentioned earlier that either McHugh or Peacock would be a nice get from Houston, not sure they want to risk their depth with both Keuchel & McCullers having injury problems in their recent history but either would be a solid addition to our rotation at a much cheaper price than Archer would command.

I really appreciate your refocusing is on the topic of contingency plan. The Astros might be a good place to find pitching. I hope they fill with Garcia or a three year deal for Cobb, but a trade like that will help.

 

It seems odd that the new folks on this site have an easier time staying on topic than the long term members. DaveW started a discussion about the front office and signing free agents or not. I would invite those interested go the and those interested in looking forward to this year’s starters continue here.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Any idea on what it would take to get McHugh from Houston? 

 

I mentioned earlier that either McHugh or Peacock would be a nice get from Houston, not sure they want to risk their depth with both Keuchel & McCullers having injury problems in their recent history but either would be a solid addition to our rotation at a much cheaper price than Archer would command.

McHugh might turn out ok, though not great, but there's no reason to offer anything of much value for McHugh after having passed on Gray and Cole, and therefore not much reason for Houston to begin a negotiation with the Twins to part with McHugh if Houston expects the Twins will offer little in return.

 

Peacock isn't going anywhere that I can see, though I admit have no idea what Houston needs or how to evaluate that one.

[slash129]

 

If I know Twins baseball, that's what they're going to do.

 

Trevor Cahill

Andrew Cashner

Jaime Garcia

Ubaldo Jimenez

Wade Miley

Edinson Volquez

Anibal Sanchez

 

I'm 99% sure the Twins are gonna sign one of those guys. They've got "Twins 1-year deal" written all over them.

 

Add Tillman and Hellickson to that list, and it's what the Twins should do at this point ... Hopefully, they can add a second year club option.  If they catch a Charlie Morton-esque reclamation, at least they would get another year out of it.  I hope they sign two of those guys.  

 

Glass is half-full:

 

Santana comes back healthy and pitches well enough for the club to pick up his option regardless of the automatic innings trigger.

 

Berrios continues his development and becomes what a Twins fan may have to accept as an ace.  Not Kershaw/Scherzer, but maybe a good bit better than any of the 2015 Royals starters.

 

Gibson puts together a full season like his second half last season and at least makes the club consider a QO.

 

Hellickson (my short term FA guy) signs for a year and doesn't have to pitch in Philly or Baltimore where he gave up 35 HRs.  He puts up 1.0 - 2.0 WAR and the Twins pick up the option.

 

Gonsalves comes up at the end of June and locks down a revolving door in the 5th spot.

 

Mejia bounces back and forth between the big club and Rochester, but he shows signs of figuring it out by the end of the season.

 

Now throw in Pineda for 2019 and you have options and a better idea of which assets you can afford to move. 

 

It's easy to do glass is half empty .... Everyone sucks. I wish we had Dodger money.

 

The Tigers and Royals are going to be bad for a few years.  The White Sox will probably start to get better the second half of this year, but 2018 isn't the only year in this window. 

 

If the Twins were really going to offer Darvish 9 figures, then I'm hopeful that they can offer extensions that will keep our young stars around past arbitration.

[NewClearHarley]

the tough part on dealing with Houston is that they don't have any real needs - unless they are concerned about Keuchel walking next offseason. Their offense is young and controllable and very good and they still have some young superstar prospects (half a decade of tanking pays off when you know how to draft). Nevertheless they are so strong at SP right now that McCullers will be their #4 - and I believe he would be our #1. We're not going to get them to deal us him, but McHugh has 8K/9 stuff but he throws a lot of pitches (sounds a lot like Darvish actually when you consider that), his contract is reasonable and he may want a chance to start rather than be forced to be a long-man. 

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins don't need Dodger money to be better. No one is adding for that.

 

I like Cobb the best, of the remaining free agents. I would deal Kepler and Gordon and a minor league pitcher for Archer. Then sign Gomez to replace Kepler.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

... Berrios continues his development and becomes what a Twins fan may have to accept as an ace.  Not Kershaw/Scherzer, but...

 

Aside from the rest of this fiasco, I do believe Berrios has the makeup of a future ace. Not to the level of the multiple-Cy Young winners like Kershaw or Scherzer, but certainly in some Cy Young conversations.

[drjim]

I can't wait for the Twins to offer Bryce Harper a 5/110 next offseason

Why would you compare Darvish to Harper?

[drjim]

Now you're not even trying. Or trying too hard.

What do you mean? Cubs made a big offer. Twjns shouldn't have topped it.

[drjim]

Because he is comparing apples to oranges. Obviously, 6/126 without an opt out is better for a team than 6/126 with an opt out (assuming the player is good enough for that range of contract, of course).

 

But that's not the choice. It is more like 6/150 without an opt out, versus 6/126 with an opt out. Or, you don't get the player without the opt out, versus you do get the player with it.

 

The opt out isn't intrinsically bad for a team. Just like a no-trade clause or anything else. It's all about how you value it.

An opt out is bad for the team. It gives them much more risk with much less upside.

[KirbyDome89]

 

In Levine's defense he is right. Opt outs are terrible for teams. Much easier for bigger markets to take on. But if the Twins aren't willing to put one in, they aren't going to get the best free agents.

 

You actually described the best case scenario not the worst.

The opt out doesn't negatively affect the Twins. It's fair to say that it's very unlikely the Twins are even mentioned in the running for pitchers like Darvish, let alone making formal offers, in either of the next few offseasons. With that being the case, why not just give him the opt out? If he walks, that's still 2 seasons of high level pitching they're never going to replace in FA. I can understand the hesitancy to go 6 years, but the opt out should have alleviated some of that pressure, not added to it.  

 

The "worst case scenario," I described was an attempt to view the contract through the lens of somebody who saw the option as a point of contention. 

[tvagle]

How about this for a contingency plan or two or three

To start I’m in the “Lewis is Untouchable” camp. I think the Twins should reconnect with the Rays and work out a Garza-Delmonzie type of deal in reverse…Twins get pitching Rays get everyday players

 

Option 1

Twins Get: Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Kepler, Romero

Sign: Alex Cobb (MLBTR projection COBB: 4/$12M AAV)

 

2018 PAYROLL: $129.9M

 

Option 2

Twins Get: Odorizzi, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Kepler, Romero, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket
As shown by the limited addition for Odorizzi I’m not high on him

 

2018 PAYROLL: $124.2M

 

Option 3
Twins Get: Archer, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Sano, Kepler, Gordon, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket

Sign: (MLBTR projection NUNEZ: 2/$7M AAV MOUSTAKAS:5/$17M AAV)
Nunez 2018 PAYROLL: $130.5M
or
Moustakas 2018 PAYROLL: $140.5M

Both of these appear to be an overpay in current market and would expect both to sign for much less

 

All three options include an upgrade in 2018 rotation to varying degrees, future rotations depend on young hurlers Honeywell and Gonslaves

 

6 years of Honeywell and Gonsalves

4 years of Archer

 

Lots of young guy risk in the rotation...sending Sano could haunt...without landing the "D word" Archer poses best upgrade to top of the rotation (IMO) make a move on him or small increments this year with 2019 rotation adds might be best we can hope for

Edited February 11, 2018 by tvagle

[Deduno Abides]

In Levine's defense he is right. Opt outs are terrible for teams. Much easier for bigger markets to take on. But if the Twins aren't willing to put one in, they aren't going to get the best free agents.

 

You actually described the best case scenario not the worst.

Yeah, the Cubs would be happy if Heyward exercises his opt-out. Worst case is he’s no good anymore and takes up a bunch of payroll.

[Otto von Ballpark]

An opt out is bad for the team. It gives them much more risk with much less upside.

Again, apples to oranges. The comparison is not "opt out vs no opt out", it's "opt out vs. no opt out plus $25 mil" or whatever. The opt out has value which is already represented in the contract terms.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All three options include an upgrade in 2018 rotation to varying degrees, future rotations depend on young hurlers Honeywell and Gonslaves

Why in the world would the Rays trade the #12 prospect in baseball?

[Vanimal46]

I guess now I'd just sign 2-3 pitchers on one year deals. Take your pick of the litter from Jason Vargas, Tillman, Garcia, Cashner, Hellickson...

[tvagle]

 

Why in the world would the Rays trade the #12 prospect in baseball?

 

Why would the Cubs sign an old guy to a 6 year contract...Because they can

 

Maybe Sano and Kepler are everything they could ever want...worst thing that happens is they say no

It's more productive than rehashing missed opportunities

 

What do you think it would take?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why would the Cubs sign an old guy to a 6 year contract...Because they can

 

Maybe Sano and Kepler are everything they could ever want...worst thing that happens is they say no

It's more productive than rehashing missed opportunities

 

What do you think it would take?

Lewis-plus, for Archer OR Honeywell.

 

Keep in mind, Sano and Kepler are about to get more expensive.

[Mike Sixel]

Why would the Cubs sign an old guy to a 6 year contract...Because they can

 

Maybe Sano and Kepler are everything they could ever want...worst thing that happens is they say no

It's more productive than rehashing missed opportunities

 

What do you think it would take?

More than anyone would pay. He's one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and ready now. There is zero reason to trade him other than an insane return.

[USAFChief]

Again, apples to oranges. The comparison is not "opt out vs no opt out", it's "opt out vs. no opt out plus $25 mil" or whatever. The opt out has value which is already represented in the contract terms.

Not to mention an opt out ISNT really bad.

[ashbury]

Not to mention an opt out ISNT really bad.

Your friendly neighborhood financial advisor would like to sell you some stock options, I bet.

[Riverbrian]

 

Fair enough, your last paragraph is a part people really don't seem to get:

 

The big markets were largely non-factors this season.  It's not like we went into the usual FA fight armed with a butter knife against the tanks of NY and LA.  Everyone came to this fight with sporks and we couldn't even muster up the courage to get out the butter knife.

 

I don't know if I agree with the overall thought but I love the presentation. 

[Thrylos]

 

How about this for a contingency plan or two or three

To start I’m in the “Lewis is Untouchable” camp. I think the Twins should reconnect with the Rays and work out a Garza-Delmonzie type of deal in reverse…Twins get pitching Rays get everyday players

 

Option 1

Twins Get: Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Kepler, Romero

Sign: Alex Cobb (MLBTR projection COBB: 4/$12M AAV)

 

2018 PAYROLL: $129.9M

 

Option 2

Twins Get: Odorizzi, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Kepler, Romero, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket
As shown by the limited addition for Odorizzi I’m not high on him

 

2018 PAYROLL: $124.2M

 

Option 3
Twins Get: Archer, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Sano, Kepler, Gordon, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket

Sign: (MLBTR projection NUNEZ: 2/$7M AAV MOUSTAKAS:5/$17M AAV)
Nunez 2018 PAYROLL: $130.5M
or
Moustakas 2018 PAYROLL: $140.5M

Both of these appear to be an overpay in current market and would expect both to sign for much less

 

All three options include an upgrade in 2018 rotation to varying degrees, future rotations depend on young hurlers Honeywell and Gonslaves

 

6 years of Honeywell and Gonsalves

4 years of Archer

 

Lots of young guy risk in the rotation...sending Sano could haunt...without landing the "D word" Archer poses best upgrade to top of the rotation (IMO) make a move on him or small increments this year with 2019 rotation adds might be best we can hope for

 

Why in heaven would the Rays would even think about including Honeywell in any trade?

[NewClearHarley]

the reason that TB is willing to deal Archer and/or Odorizzi is that they believe that Honeywell and Faria are ready to step in - they wouldn't be inclined to deal either of them - nor would I part with Sano for either of them. I agree with the idea of getting Span back but considering the salary relief involved that plus Kepler should fetch us Odorizzi or that plus Kepler plus one additional piece should come close to netting Archer. I doubt Twins would deal both Kepler & Romero to TB and take Span's contract - unless TB was paying almost all of it.

[jimmer]

Why would we want Odorizzi?

 

Odorizzi. 143 IP last year. 7.97 K and 3.83 BB per 9 IP. Had a ridiculous and likely unsustainable babip of .227. Had a FIP of 5.43 and an xFIP of 5.10. Had a fWAR of 0.1. He has gotten worse in each of his last two seasons in practically every meaningful way.