Royce Lewis vs. 2017 Draftees Update Club

[Mr. Brooks]

Since apparently I have nothing better to do on a Friday night, I looked through the original thread. Willihammer was the one who really wanted Adell.

 

And, man were people here ticked about the Twins getting Lewis...

Thank you. That's who I was thinking of.

[rghrbek]

Can we do this with the Kohl Stewart draft or Tyler Jay draft?

 

Perspective.  

 

I know this is specifically about 2017, there was better talent at that draft, but man, we need some time.

[Doctor Wu]

I was really hoping the Twins would draft a pitcher that year, but now that the dust has settled I'm very pleased with how Royce Lewis has played so far. Of course these are still early days and who know how all of these players will end up doing, but I'm very confident that Lewis will be a keeper, and hopefully a perennial all-star for the Twins.

[Vanimal46]

Mackenzie Gore was promoted to AA today. That leaves Hunter Greene (TJS) and Lewis as the remaining top draft picks not to see AA action so far.

[Roaddog]

Won't lie I wanted Gore in the worst way.

[John Kelsey]

 

Won't lie I wanted Gore in the worst way.

 

You got receipts?

 

I'd probably rank them right now:

Gore

McKay

Lewis
Greene

Wright 

[dgwills]

 

Since apparently I have nothing better to do on a Friday night, I looked through the original thread. Willihammer was the one who really wanted Adell.

 

And, man were people here ticked about the Twins getting Lewis...

I was pretty ticked. Don't really see how I was wrong either. The Twins really needed high end pitching prospects then. We have a couple now, but we still need pitching pretty badly. 

[Vanimal46]

You got receipts?

 

I'd probably rank them right now:

Gore

McKay

Lewis

Greene

Wright

He does have receipts!

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/26263-article-twins-mlb-draft-preview-mackenzie-gore-lh-sp/?hl=%2Btwins+%2Bmlb+%2Bdraft+%2Bpreview

 

I hopped on the Gore hype train too and wanted him on the Twins. Greene was my first choice thanks to his Sports Illustrated cover story... And I wanted nothing to do with McKay. Still feel that way today even after he made his MLB debut so quickly.

[Mike Sixel]

He does have receipts!

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/26263-article-twins-mlb-draft-preview-mackenzie-gore-lh-sp/?hl=%2Btwins+%2Bmlb+%2Bdraft+%2Bpreview

 

I hopped on the Gore hype train too and wanted him on the Twins. Greene was my first choice thanks to his Sports Illustrated cover story... And I wanted nothing to do with McKay. Still feel that way today even after he made his MLB debut so quickly.

McKay looks like a legit number two. You don't want that?

 

Lewis is not progressing like the rest, that is disappointing.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Won't lie I wanted Gore in the worst way.

I wanted Gore too but he was kind of a 1a to a Royce Lewis 1b for me. I just really didn't like Mckay or Wright

[twinsfanstreif]

 

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

I recall reading about him and some talk about him on this board, I even think there was some talk about him being an outlier #1 money saving pick. He just seemed to be on the outside of the top 5 though. I remember liking him but not as much as the other guys

[Vanimal46]

McKay looks like a legit number two. You don't want that?

 

Lewis is not progressing like the rest, that is disappointing.

Nah but that's because I don't think he's a legit #2... I think him and Wright are both middle to back end of the rotation arms. I'd still prefer the potential upside of Gore, Greene, and Lewis at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

Nah but that's because I don't think he's a legit #2... I think him and Wright are both middle to back end of the rotation arms. I'd still prefer the potential upside of Gore, Greene, and Lewis at this point.

If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

[Han Joelo]

I'm disappointed that Lewis has stalled a bit.  And Gore certainly looks good now, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Royce.  Pitching prospects...

[Mike Sixel]

I'm disappointed that Lewis has stalled a bit. And Gore certainly looks good now, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Royce. Pitching prospects...

Are the best way to get cheap pitching.

[TRex]

 

If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

 

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

 

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

 

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

 

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.

 

IIRC, they could have paid slot, and signed Enlow, and not suffered any penalties other than maybe some money. No draft picks lost.

[Han Joelo]

 

Are the best way to get cheap pitching.

 

Like Tyler Jay?  Or Kohl Stewart?  Drafting the right pitching prospects might be the best way to get cheap pitching.  Analyzing those two in hindsight is its own little cottage industry here on this board.

 

But we're not even really into hindsight mode yet.  These guys are really young, and Gore has a lot of surgeries to avoid before I start to second guess this pick.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Like Tyler Jay?  Or Kohl Stewart?  Drafting the right pitching prospects might be the best way to get cheap pitching.  Analyzing those two in hindsight is its own little cottage industry here on this board.

 

But we're not even really into hindsight mode yet.  These guys are really young, and Gore has a lot of surgeries to avoid before I start to second guess this pick.

 

Like Levi Michael, or others? We can play that game all day. Teams use 20 pitchers a year, you need a lot of pitching. If you won't draft it early, you need to be willing to trade prospects and sign free agents....or rely on late round picks and IFA.

[Mr. Brooks]

IIRC, they could have paid slot, and signed Enlow, and not suffered any penalties other than maybe some money. No draft picks lost.

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Like Levi Michael, or others? We can play that game all day. Teams use 20 pitchers a year, you need a lot of pitching. If you won't draft it early, you need to be willing to trade prospects and sign free agents....or rely on late round picks and IFA.

 

This is really a pointless game. I don't think anyone saying don't draft pitches or don't draft hitters, and it's really easy to make mistakes along the way. What is it, like 50% of first round picks ever amount to anything?  So let's just kill this tangent.

 

The issue with that draft was (at least in my opinion) your top pick plus Enlow, Leach, and Rooker… all of whom the Twins coveted. Leach has been the only one in this group who hasn't really taken strides forward, though he hasn't been that bad either... just hasn't been that good. The book is clearly still out there, and will be for another 3-5 years most likely. Could they have gotten those 3 if they drafted Gore or McKay? I don't know. 

 

Personally, if I remember right, McKay was my top choice though I think Wright was up there too. I really didn't like the Lewis draft until they got Enlow as well. As others have pointed out, I'm not sure they get all 4 if they don't take Lewis... and like it or not, when it comes to those cheap pitching prospects, the more the merrier. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

 

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

 

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.

Maybe. But it's also quite possible Gore accepts the same bonus amount to be the #1 overall pick too. I will quote an old post of mine on the subject: "since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had. It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else."

 

And as Mike alluded to, the Twins would up with enough wiggle room that they could have paid slot money at #1, signed all of their other picks, and still not suffered any future draft penalties.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

 

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)

[Mike Sixel]

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

I would be surprised. They spend more than that on one player in the draft and IFA. But sure, that's possible. Not the argument I was responding to, but sure.

 

To go further....

I'd rather have Gore than Lewis and Leach or Rooker or Enlow. I doubt others agree. And I'm not trying to convince anyone.

[Steve Lein]

 

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

 

 

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)

 

Have had multiple of these conversations on Twitter the past few days, including with Doogie.

 

Impression from his responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool. 

 

This is both ridiculous and disappointing to me. They could still spend 3rd round money and only incur tax penalties up to around $1MIL more total money spent. This is peanuts, and acquiring better talent in this way is what teams like the Twins need to exploit at every turn.

 

23 teams overspent their pool last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

 

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)

How is that a failure of the front office? They are beholden to ownership, they don't get to just do as they please.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How is that a failure of the front office? They are beholden to ownership, they don't get to just do as they please.

They are also beholden to players in the FA market, but if a GM can't ever convince a decent FA to sign, I think that's a bit of a mark against the GM.

 

I expect my GM to have some ability to persuade. They won't convince every FA, or fleece every other GM in trade, or get $200 mil to spend on a FA. But procuring an extra $1.2 mil / 8.5% to execute their preferred draft strategy (one apparently done by 23 other teams?) seems like a reasonable baseline expectation for a GM's persuasive abilities.

 

Again, this is hypothetical. It is quite possible/probable the 2017 Twins preferred Lewis anyway.

[bird]

 

If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

 

 

As I said prior to the draft, I'd be surprised if, over the full course of their careers, two out of the four pitching candidates would provide more cumulative than WAR than Lewis. The other two would either underperform or wash out due to ijury, and that there was no way of knowing which. Therefore, it still feels like a good judgment call to me. And no, the first round of the Rule 4 draft is not the only way to acquire top rotation talent. The facts just don't this opinion, although it's also historically proven that in every draft, there are some great bets when you pick first. 

[Mike Sixel]

As I said prior to the draft, I'd be surprised if, over the full course of their careers, two out of the four pitching candidates would provide more cumulative than WAR than Lewis. The other two would either underperform or wash out due to ijury, and that there was no way of knowing which. Therefore, it still feels like a good judgment call to me. And no, the first round of the Rule 4 draft is not the only way to acquire top rotation talent. The facts just don't this opinion, although it's also historically proven that in every draft, there are some great bets when you pick first.

I never said it was the only way. Not once. Never even implied it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

 

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)

Agreed that they should be willing to spend that $1.2mm overage. What’s strange to me about it is that, let’s say, they had a slightly higher pick, or an extra comp pick, totaling $1.2mm. I can’t imagine them having any problem spending that amount. That overage should just be considered a part of their pool, in my opinion.