Article: Do The Twins Need To Add a Right-Handed Bat?

[Ben Noble]

 

Matt Kemp can't hit either. And he is super expensive. They would trade him for anyone

 

Yeah, but he does hit LHP well, .921 career OPS, a gnarly .684 last year, but .954 in 2016 and an .821 mark over the past three years including last season's stinker.

 

The question for me is, what would LAD give up to dump Kemp's salary if they're intent on signing Darvish? What would you want in return to take on about $30M for a part-time platoon player over the next two years? (Through a couple of previous trades, I think about $10M of Kemp's salary is already covered).

 

I'd love it if the FO got creative and figured out a way to pry Buehler away from LA by both taking on Kemp and sending prospects back to the Dodgers, but it would probably take a significant haul. Maybe not as much of a prospect hit as Archer would require, though, with MN adding so much cash.

[Twins33]

I don't think the ideal right-handed bat is out there on the free agent market, and I think with the switch-hitters on the roster it isn't a must. It will be interesting the next few weeks to see if the market develops. If the 1B/DH market lags I would like to see the Twins try and swoop in on Logan Morrison if they can get him on an affordable deal. I know he is left-handed, but I'd take him over Vargas in a heartbeat, and if we're talking strictly replacing Vargas as the left-handed side of a DH platoon, then I'd take Lucas Duda or Adam Lind over Vargas too if the price for this type of player stay low.

LoMo is the guy I want too. Austin Jackson was my first choice but he's gone now. Edited January 31, 2018 by Twins33

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, but he does hit LHP well, .921 career OPS, a gnarly .684 last year, but .954 in 2016 and an .821 mark over the past three years including last season's stinker.

 

The question for me is, what would LAD give up to dump Kemp's salary if they're intent on signing Darvish? What would you want in return to take on about $30M for a part-time platoon player over the next two years? (Through a couple of previous trades, I think about $10M of Kemp's salary is already covered).

 

I'd love it if the FO got creative and figured out a way to pry Buehler away from LA by both taking on Kemp and sending prospects back to the Dodgers, but it would probably take a significant haul. Maybe not as much of a prospect hit as Archer would require, though, with MN adding so much cash.

If the Twins won't or can't sign Yu, I would explore this opportunity to help LA do so. I would want Buehler first, but I would take Calhoun and two low level players. Then I would try to flip the low level players and some of the Twins existing guys for a pitcher. Calhoun has good DH written all over him.

[Vanimal46]

 

If the Twins won't or can't sign Yu, I would explore this opportunity to help LA do so. I would want Buehler first, but I would take Calhoun and two low level players. Then I would try to flip the low level players and some of the Twins existing guys for a pitcher. Calhoun has good DH written all over him.

 

Unfortunately Calhoun is a Texas Ranger now... He was included in the Darvish trade to LA. 

 

Buehler is also a high level prospect... #13 on BA, #13 on MLB.com 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unfortunately Calhoun is a Texas Ranger now... He was included in the Darvish trade to LA. 

 

Buehler is also a high level prospect... #13 on BA, #13 on MLB.com 

 

Ha, how did I forget that? Idiot.....

 

and ya, they aren't getting Buehler, that's a dream. I'd have to go look at their lists again to see what I'd want....oh well.

[Thrylos]

 

Also, while I can understand not wanted to turn Kepler into a platoon guy yet, one of the biggest candidates for a platoon is Mauer. If this team is serious about squeezing every last win this coming season, they should seriously consider finding someone to take 100-150 of Mauer's PAs against lefties.

 

Really? 

 

2017 data:
Mauer:  vs RHP: .304/.386/.430 vs LHP: .308/.377/.377
Kepler:  vs RHP: .272/.343/.484  vs LHP: .152/.213/.240

 

Whose PAs against LHPs should go?

 

I don't get the Mauer hate sometimes...

 

 

[ashbury]

Also, while I can understand not wanted to turn Kepler into a platoon guy yet, one of the biggest candidates for a platoon is Mauer. If this team is serious about squeezing every last win this coming season, they should seriously consider finding someone to take 100-150 of Mauer's PAs against lefties. For example, Holliday's worst season against lefties in the past 4 seasons is better than Mauer's best season. Last year, the Twins were 8th highest in total L-on-L PAs (590 total PAs), but were only 18th in wRC+ in that situation. It shouldn't be hard to switch ~200 PAs to better right-handed hitters next season.

Said another way (than Thrylos's post, above), of the 13 hitters with at least 50 PA against lefties in 2017, Mauer ranked 5th on the team in OPS. Of all the aspects of the season to fix, this one ranks pretty low.

[stringer bell]

I would say that finding a lefty killer who could play first base wouldn't be a bad thing. Not that Mauer is bad against LH pitching, but that I think he needs days off and finding an alternative who could spot him against lefties would be a good thing.

[Thegrin]

There are plenty of AB for our current players in the DH & OF.  They should be taken by Mauer, San, Granite, Vargas. Escobar, Garver & Grossman.  This combo of hitters is better than all the Napoli types. 

After 2018 we will want to discard some.  Until then, don't even think of bringing in an experienced RH hitter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are plenty of AB for our current players in the DH & OF.  They should be taken by Mauer, San, Granite, Vargas. Escobar, Garver & Grossman.  This combo of hitters is better than all the Napoli types. 

After 2018 we will want to discard some.  Until then, don't even think of bringing in an experienced RH hitter.

 

If Garver is the backup catcher, he probably will almost never be anywhere but catching or the bench, imo. 

[Thrylos]

 

I would say that finding a lefty killer who could play first base wouldn't be a bad thing. Not that Mauer is bad against LH pitching, but that I think he needs days off and finding an alternative who could spot him against lefties would be a good thing.

 

Vargas.

[markos]

 

Really? 

 

2017 data:
Mauer:  vs RHP: .304/.386/.430 vs LHP: .308/.377/.377
Kepler:  vs RHP: .272/.343/.484  vs LHP: .152/.213/.240

 

Whose PAs against LHPs should go?

 

I don't get the Mauer hate sometimes...

I don't think it is crazy to think that Kepler is young enough that with more development he could become competent against lefties over the next 4+ seasons. But yes, if the Twins want to give up on that possibility ever happening and completely focus on this season, Kepler is definitely a guy to platoon.

But that doesn't mean the Mauer isn't also a good platoon candidate. Focusing on just his 2017 is a fairly misleading. He just had his 5th best season against lefties for his entire career, partially on the back of his second-highest BABIP against lefties (.367). If you look at his last 4 seasons combined (almost 700 PAs), he has a sub-.700 OPS against lefties, including at .610 OPS in 2016. Going into his age-35 season, I will definitely take the under on him repeating or exceeding a .754 OPS against lefties in 2018.

[cmoss84]

I wouldn't mind throwing some dollars at Todd Frazier...can play 1st or 3rd with good power and a good glove. Seems like a good dude as well. Are these FA going to sign? Holy smokes. 

[Riverbrian]

Todd Frazier and Carlos Gomez are the two free agents that... IMO... legitimately improve our team. 

 

Frazier could slot in at 3B if Sano has any issues preventing him from playing 3B for a stretch. That would move Escobar to multiple position role at SS and 2B from time to time. Frazier is a legit 30 plus home run guy.

 

Frazier could take Adrianaza's spot on the roster.

 

Gomez can play all 3 OF positions but specifically play CF if Buxton tweeks a hammy. Gomez and Buxton in the same OF would cover ground along with Kepler and Rosario. 

 

Gomez has some legit pop if he keeps his head and helmet on straight. 

 

Gomez could take Grossman's spot (I love Grossman but Gomez is in upgrade). 

 

I'm not a starting 9 and some other players guy. Adding Frazier and Gomez in my mind doesn't mean that Escobar and Kepler won't play. I want 25 guys who can produce and I want competition at all positions. We would be adding insurance for injury and failure and if no one gets injured or fails... that would be wonderful. Molitor can easily rotate the playing time so everybody gets fed and I'll see you for Game 1 of the World Series at Target Field. 

 

I'm not saying we should... I'm just saying those are two players that I think will improve the club. 

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

I don't think it is crazy to think that Kepler is young enough that with more development he could become competent against lefties over the next 4+ seasons. But yes, if the Twins want to give up on that possibility ever happening and completely focus on this season, Kepler is definitely a guy to platoon.

 

A contender cannot afford to waste PAs.  So unless Kepler can prove that he can hit LHP, he should face it only  in blowouts.    Sure.  Develop Kepler against LHP, but not in MLB games where he can cost the post-season.  That's what cages and pitching machines are for.

 

Winning games should be more important than developing players at the MLB level for a contender.

 

This is not the Marlins.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

A contender cannot afford to waste PAs.  So unless Kepler can prove that he can hit LHP, he should face it only  in blowouts.    Sure.  Develop Kepler against LHP, but not in MLB games where he can cost the post-season.  That's what cages and pitching machines are for.

 

Winning games should be more important than developing players at the MLB level for a contender.

 

This is not the Marlins.

 

how do you propose he prove it, if you don't let him get ABs in games?

[gagu]

Vargas Career Splits

vs RHP  AB 526 HR 26  W 38 SO 171 BA.241 OBP .295 SLG. 439 OPS.735
vs LHP  AB 257 HR 14  W 27 SO  80  BA.272 OBP  .341 SLG .432 OPS.773

 

What was the deal with Vargas in 2017? While the sample sizes are small, he torched left-handed pitchers in ´15 and ´16. 

VS LHP in ´15-  .364 .397 .473 .869, 

VS LHP in ´16-   378 .462 .800 1.262

VS LHP in ´17-  .185 .289 .308 .597

 

His combined MLB/MiLB career splits are more varied but seem to show better numbers as a right-handed batter. 

 

Did the opposition find his Achilles heel from the right side, or is there reason to believe that he can once again produce big numbers against lefties?

 

[stringer bell]

Vargas was downright bad vs. LH pitching last year. Can he be counted on to be acceptable against lefties, I don't think so.

[mudcat14]

 

Yeah, but he does hit LHP well, .921 career OPS, a gnarly .684 last year, but .954 in 2016 and an .821 mark over the past three years including last season's stinker.

 

The question for me is, what would LAD give up to dump Kemp's salary if they're intent on signing Darvish? What would you want in return to take on about $30M for a part-time platoon player over the next two years? (Through a couple of previous trades, I think about $10M of Kemp's salary is already covered).

 

I'd love it if the FO got creative and figured out a way to pry Buehler away from LA by both taking on Kemp and sending prospects back to the Dodgers, but it would probably take a significant haul. Maybe not as much of a prospect hit as Archer would require, though, with MN adding so much cash.

 

I'm warming up to this idea.  What's Kemp's health like?  He's supposed to be a defensive liability, but has only played 14 career games at DH.  Maybe keeping the glove in his locker would boost his bat a bit.  The Twins were allegedly enamored with Alvarez and Lux of the Dodgers in the failed Dozier talks.  Would eating the $35mil or so he's owed over the next two years net one of them in return?  A risk?  Sure but what isn't these days.  

[Vanimal46]

I'm warming up to this idea. What's Kemp's health like? He's supposed to be a defensive liability, but has only played 14 career games at DH. Maybe keeping the glove in his locker would boost his bat a bit. The Twins were allegedly enamored with Alvarez and Lux of the Dodgers in the failed Dozier talks. Would eating the $35mil or so he's owed over the next two years net one of them in return? A risk? Sure but what isn't these days.

Interesting note about Alvarez. He's fallen off MLB.com's top 100 prospect list after starting at #49 last year. I don't pay for Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus to know if he's still on those lists.

 

It looks like a great non-trade.

[Twins33]

Interesting note about Alvarez. He's fallen off MLB.com's top 100 prospect list after starting at #49 last year. I don't pay for Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus to know if he's still on those lists.

It looks like a great non-trade.

I don't pay for it either but googling for sites like this for the Dodgers says that he's not on BA's list either. Buehler, Verdugo, White and Ruiz are on BA for them.

 

I don't think BP's list has come out yet, unless I'm terrible at locating it. I only can bring up the 2017 list. And no one is talking about it in regards to the Dodgers...at least in the quick search I did.

[HawkeyeDodger]

The Dodgers would happily pay two-thirds of Kemp's salary to go away.  If you want prospects then the Twins would have to start taking on more money.  Probably half just to get a decent prospect.  Buehler isn't going anywhere.  Kemp is working out at Dodger Stadium and has lost a lot of weight.  He tore it up the first two months of last season until he had hammy issues and then his season, weight, and attitude fell apart.  Helping the Dodgers move Kemp puts them back in the Darvish sweepstakes though.

 

As for Alvarez, his conditioning was questioned last year when he showed up to ST.  I recently read that he's been in AZ at the Dodgers facility in shape and working on developing his changeup to go the plus plus fastball and plus slider.  Stuff isn't the issue.  Like most young pitchers it is command.  He got a bit of a wake up call last year after performing better than expected the year before.  He could be a #1 or he could wind up a bullpen piece.  This season will go a long way in which direction he's headed.  

 

Teams that are starving for pitching should be looking at Ryu.  The Dodgers babied him last year because they didn't know what he could provide.  If you subtract his starts against the Rockies he was quite good.  He knows how to pitch and he's working on adding a two-seam fastball to his arsenal.  He can no longer hit 94-95 mph when needed but he knows how to work up and down in the strike zone and it makes his 91-92 mph fastball good enough with such a good changeup.  He may not be a match for the Twins but he's a cheap trade option for teams who need multiple starters.