Article: Do The Twins Need To Add a Right-Handed Bat?

[Seth Stohs]

As we approach pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training in about two weeks, there are a ton of remaining free agents. The pitchers are understandably getting all of the headlines, but throughout the offseason, there have been a few rumblings about the Twins also looking for a right-handed hitter.

 

Today, let’s take a look at which candidates are out there, and which internal options could flit the bill. Should the Twins target a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder type? Should they go after a right-handed designated hitter type to come off of the bench?There were rumors last offseason about the Twins interest in Mike Napoli. The Twins reportedly offered Napoli more money, but he chose to sign with the Texas Rangers, believing that he would have a better opportunity to get to the playoffs.

 

Napoli, who could DH and play a little first base, is 36 years old and coming off a season in which he hit just .193/.285/.428 (.713), though he still hit 29 home runs. Could he be an option for the Twins in 2018, and if so, can he be more productive given less playing time?

 

Napoli doesn’t need to be the lone right-handed DH. For instance, Jose Bautista remains a free agent. Like Napoli, Bautista is coming off of a disappointing 2017 season with the Blue Jays. He hit .203/.308/.366 (.674) with 23 home runs. Of course, Twins fans know his track record against the Twins, particularly at Target Field. In 62 career games against the Twins, he has hit .302/.393/.699 (1.092) with 17 doubles and 24 home runs. In 25 games at Target Field, he has hit .324/.410/.794 (.1.204) with six doubles and 14 home runs. The 37-year-old has accumulated over $100 million in his long career, but he’d probably be looking at a one-year, $6-8 million deal from someone in hopes of improving on his 2017 season.

 

Matt Holliday is another veteran with a ton of experience. He played in 103 games in 2017 for the Yankees, primarily as a DH and pinch hitter. The 38-year-old hit 19 homers and hit .231/.316/.432 (.748). He made $13 million in 2017, but he should be available, like Bautista, for something in the $6-8 million range for one season.

 

Another $100 million man, Jayson Werth is coming off of a long-term contract with the Nationals. While he was a very good player from 2007 through 2014. He missed about half of the season in 2015 and 2017, and his OPS has dropped. Could he be convinced to sign and primarily get time as a DH and pinch hitter? He’ll likely get a one year deal in that same $6-8 million range. While he’s not a strong outfielder, he could get some time in the corner outfield positions.

 

Those four veteran options certainly have experience. Napoli is known as a very good teammate and leader. Bautista… isn’t. Holliday and Werth are probably somewhere in between.

 

While they don’t have the name recognition, the Twins currently have Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas available internally.

 

Grossman isn’t a great defensive outfielder, though he’s better defensively than the options above. He primarily DHd in 2017 and did well. He traditionally has hit better against left-handed pitching. And, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’ll make $2 million (25-40% of what those free agents would cost). And, most likely, while he won’t hit as many home runs, his ability to get on base, play some defense and be accepting of a role on the roster.

 

Vargas has struggled mightily with consistency, but he’s also shown an ability to hit the ball really hard and really far. He is a DH who is capable of playing some first base, if not well. But he’s posted OPS of .833 and .758 the last two seasons. He hit 10 homers in 47 games in 2016, and he had 11 homers last year in 78 games a year ago. And, he will cost somewhere around $600,000 in 2018.

 

In addition, Zack Granite is fully capable of playing all three outfield positions well, including center field. While he bats left-handed, it’s important to note that he had reverse splits in each of his first four seasons of professional baseball. In 2016 in AA, hit hit .296/.348 versus right-handers and .291/.345 against left-handers. In 2017, he hit .312/.379/.443 (.822) against right-handers and .325/.369/.412 (.781) against left-handers between AAA and the big leagues. In fact, his OPS against southpaws in the big leagues last year was .979. His first MLB home came off of lefty Blaine Hardy of the Tigers.

In last night’s podcast, Granite said, ““I don’t want to say I focus harder, but I feel like I have to stay in there longer. Honestly, when I face a lefty, I’m always scared that if they open up too soon, they’ll hit me in the head. But I know whenever I face a lefty that I have to stay in there longer. I think it helps me that I don’t try to do too much when I face a lefty. I just try to hit line drives right up the middle or the other way, wherever it’s pitched. I think that helps me because I literally try to be as simple as possible. With lefties, I can keep my game as simple as possible.”

 

There are several other free agent outfielders who are still out there. For instance, JD Martinez is still out there. Then again, he turned down (reportedly) a five-year, $100 million deal from the Red Sox, so I don’t think he makes much sense for the Twins. Andre Ethier’s long, huge contract with the Dodgers is finally complete. He’s a free agent, but he’s struggled for years, and he’s left-handed. Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez are both likely to get $10 million per year or more.

 

Two other free agent outfielders may make some sense.34-year-old Chris Young has played about half the time, maybe a little less, for the Red Sox the last couple of years. He’s mostly played left field. After posting an .850 OPS in 76 games in 2016, he posted a .709 OPS in 90 games in 2017. He could be available for about $4 million.

 

Cameron Maybin will turn 31 years old shortly after Opening Day. He began last year with the Angels before going to the Astros at the trade deadline and winning a World Series title. He posted an .801 OPS in 2016 in Detroit, but that was way above his career OPS of .693. His value comes from strong defense around the outfield. After making $9 million last year, he should be more in the $5-6 million range in 2018.

 

SUMMARY

 

So, if the Twins feel they need a DH type, there are several options, the most realistic of which are upper-30s guys coming off of long-term contracts and tough seasons. Are those guys better than Kennys Vargas (who is 27).

 

If you want a fourth/fifth outfielder, the decision is whether to add a defensive option like Cameron Maybin who hits right handed, or stand by Zack Granite who has had reverse splits in his career and plays terrific defense at all three outfield positions too.

 

And Robbie Grossman can play the corner outfield spots adequately and DH and pinch hit.

 

How does it all play together? Is signing a veteran hitter important? Should it be? And, how do we value that veteran-ness over giving guys like Vargas and Granite an opportunity?

 

Share your thoughts. In my opinion, I think I’d rather just go with the youth and give a shot to Granite, Grossman and Vargas. You’ll probably get equal production for just $3.25 million. And then spend the money not spent on a bat to a package for Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn (or Yu Darvish, if that works).. What do you think?

 

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[killertwinfan]

I agree. 

[mudcat14]

I can't speak to the intangibles like leadership qualities, but I'd save the money and go with Kennys, Granite & Grossman to start the season.  Save the dollars for an in-season upgrade, if necessary.  

[Riverbrian]

I'm gonna be petty and say no to Napoli since he turned down more money from us last year to sign with a team that didn't make the playoffs. That's kind of insulting. 

 

He clearly has bad judgement and we don't need that in the clubhouse. 

[Respy]

I say yes, but only if it gives us something we don't already have.  RH 1B/DH type?  Gotta give Vargas his last shot this year.  RH infielder?  Escobar is fine.  RH outfielder who is not a good outfielder?  Grossman.  I was all for Austin Jackson, but he already signed with the Giants.  Chris Young might have fit the mold a couple years ago, but he hit lefties poorly last year, and was a below-average defender. 

 

I do not like Jose Bautista.  His only appeal is that he hits well at Target Field.

 

They should at least think about JD Martinez and Todd Frazier, but JD has priced himself out of our market (and he's a poor defender) and Frazier will probably only fit our team while Sano is potentially suspended.  

 

They should also look at Eduardo Nunez if they think Sano might be out for a while.

 

With the current players available, I'd hold on RH bats and wait an see how things are going, particularly with Vargas, Grossman, Byungho Park, Garver, closer to the trade deadline.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Respy

[Greg Logan]

I have a hard time with the "Zack Granite has reverse splits" argument.

 

As Seth noted, Granite had an .822 OPS vs RHP and a .781 OPS vs LHP in 2017, which isn't a bad split for a LHB, but one-year platoon splits typically aren't enough of a sample size to be reliable long-term.

 

If you go back to 2016 he had a pretty notable OPS platoon split at .672 vs LHP and .744 vs RHP. Seth notes that his OBP is similar, but he leaves out slugging from his slash line, which is important to have a full view. I'm curious why SLG was left out. 

 

Going any further back has us looking at his performance against single-A pitchers, which likely doesn't project very well.

[BJames]

I'm a Vargas fan and would like to see him get 350 Ab's. As far as right handed hitter we have Grossman, Vargas and Escobar. I don't see any improvement by signing a F.A. just more Cost$$$$.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Vargas has struggled mightily with consistency

How so? Unless you mean he hasn't gotten consistent playing time, with which I'd agree. Otherwise, the variations in his performance seem consistent with his established talent level and comparable to the variations of other players, including the others you mention in this article (Grossman, Napoli, etc.).

Edited January 30, 2018 by spycake

[blindeke]

Bautista in a Twins uniform would be so against the team's historical narrative that I'm kinda in favor of it. 

[mikelink45]

If you project Vargas' numbers over a full season his HR total matches Napoli, Bautista, and Holliday.  Cheaper, younger and better batting average with the same number of HR.  The choice is easy for me.

 

Fourth outfielder would be Granite for me because I value defense very high.  

 

I really have a broken record on this years FA class.  NO - No  - No. But then, the major league clubs are saying the same thing.  This is not a great year for FA and they need to reduce their costs to sign new deals.  

 

[Dantes929]

I would have no problem with Nunez as long as it is understood he will bunt at least twice every time he faces Sabbathia.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would much rather have the 3 players we already have than any of the free agents mentioned in this article. Signing any of these free agents makes no economic sense to me. Nor does it improve the team. "Veteran leadership" is already present on this current Twins' team in Mauer, Dozier, Castro, Escobar, Santana. Therefore there is no reason to sign any of free agents, whose stock is tumbling downward.

[Blake]

It looks to me like the day of the pure DH is going away due to the premium being placed on pitching.

 

Which means any DH needs to be at least competent defensively.

 

So, I don't believe valuable roster spots should be wasted on a bench player who is aging, limited defensively and is going to be rather expensive compared to internal options.

[USAFChief]

I have long been of the opinion a good RH hitting 4th OFer would be a huge help to the offense. Granite does nothing for me.

 

I like Bautista's chances of a bounce back best, hitting primarily against LH pitching.

[Brandon]

I think a rh dh makes sense if we want to use Grossman to platoon with Kepler or Mauer or both. We had a hard time against lefties last year so it does make sense. I think whichever signs a minorleague deal and dukes it out with Vargas can have the contract.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I agree with the writer's conclusion; no dumpster diving, go with the yutes.

 

However I feel compelled to disparage the mythical importance of "team leadership" in players as long as I've taken the time to comment. When the day comes that teams start signing million dollar contracts with guys who can't hit their weight but supposedly possess this mystical team leadership quality, they will in effect have a nothing bat on the bench. How long will the other 24 players on the team revere the dead weight when he fails to deliver a timely hit to win a game? A game they busted their fannies to win? If you want a pinch hitter give me a guy that can hit in clutch situations. He don't need no stinking leadership.

 

In my opinion, if you feel your team needs leadership, get a new manager. It's in his job description.

 

 

[jmlease1]

I think we have a significant roster crunch for the position players that makes this a challenge. I'd love to have a reliable RH power bat on the bench, but right now I'm not sure they'll carry one.

 

It feels like Grossman has a spot fairly well locked down (should he? might be another question) as the primary DH who will get a few starts in the OF. Adrianza and Escobar look to have two bench spots secured, and they're both useful players. Garver certainly has the lead at backup catcher. If we carry 13 freakin' pitchers...there's no spots left.

 

So unless we commit to 13 position players (which I would prefer), the choice is more like Grossman vs Vargas vs Free Agent X. (I don't see Granite getting a spot absent injury if we only carry 12 position players)

 

 

[mikelink45]

 

I would much rather have the 3 players we already have than any of the free agents mentioned in this article. Signing any of these free agents makes no economic sense to me. Nor does it improve the team. "Veteran leadership" is already present on this current Twins' team in Mauer, Dozier, Castro, Escobar, Santana. Therefore there is no reason to sign any of free agents, whose stock is tumbling downward.

Don't forget the all star veteran leadership team - Hunter, Cuddyer, Kaat, Morneau...that is now part of the Twins front office. 

[nater79a]

I think the Twins will be without Sano for a decent amount of time for either health reasons, suspension or both.  This means the Twins will be power challenged with only Dozier providing RH pop on a consistent basis in the lineup.  So adding a right-handed power bat is a must, in my opinion.

 

I would pick up a 1B/DH type with Granite backing up all three of the outfield positions. Vargas pretty much flails uncontrollably from the right side so I don't view him as an option at 1B/DH anymore. That ship has sailed.  Grossman gives you some OBP but not much power; or defense (see Granite above).  I'd move on.

 

My choice for a bounce back candidate would Matt Holliday.  I think he has another .800+ OPS and 25 HR season left in him after a bit of a down year in '17.  Can spell Mauer at 1B and also DH against lefties.  Second choice would be Mark Reynolds.  Strikes out a ton but also hits a ton of taters.

 

Bottom line: I give up some power from the left side (Vargas) and OBP (Grossman) for power from the right side and defense in the OF (Granite).

[Seth Stohs]

 

I have a hard time with the "Zack Granite has reverse splits" argument.

 

As Seth noted, Granite had an .822 OPS vs RHP and a .781 OPS vs LHP in 2017, which isn't a bad split for a LHB, but one-year platoon splits typically aren't enough of a sample size to be reliable long-term.

 

If you go back to 2016 he had a pretty notable OPS platoon split at .672 vs LHP and .744 vs RHP. Seth notes that his OBP is similar, but he leaves out slugging from his slash line, which is important to have a full view. I'm curious why SLG was left out. 

 

Going any further back has us looking at his performance against single-A pitchers, which likely doesn't project very well.

 

I mentioned that he had reverse splits his first four seasons as a pro. In 2016, he did slug a bit more against right-handers, but let's be honest, Granite's slugging percentage isn't as important to the type of player he is as his BA and OBP. I should have maybe written that out in the article a little more. As for the value of the numbers in A ball, the same can be said of right-handers. So yeah, it's not a perfect illustration, but when combining his defense, speed and other intangibles, he makes as much sense as any of the veteran types. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

How so? Unless you mean he hasn't gotten consistent playing time, with which I'd agree. Otherwise, the variations in his performance seem consistent with his established talent level and comparable to the variations of other players, including the others you mention in this article (Grossman, Napoli, etc.).

 

I would say opportunity hasn't been consistent, and that's part of what's led the play to be pretty inconsistent. You are right in that three of his four years look pretty consistent, but even within those seasons, he was inconsistent from month to month. He's fun to watch when things are going well, and then he'll have a three-week stretch that is tough to watch. I would rather go with him, at 27, than the 35+ crowd. 

[gocgo]

 

"With the current players available, I'd hold on RH bats and wait an see how things are going, particularly with Vargas, Grossman, Byungho Park, Garver, closer to the trade deadline."

 

I think Park is gone like the dodo bird.

 

[big dog]

 

 

 

I do not like Jose Bautista.  His only appeal is that he hits well at Target Field.

 

 

 

Agreed, though I think it might be more accurate to say that he hits well off the Twins.  Even a better reason not to sign him!

[big dog]

 

I would have no problem with Nunez as long as it is understood he will bunt at least twice every time he faces Sabbathia.

Plus we've done pretty well trading for and trading him, so I'm willing to get back into that market.

[Thrylos]

CarGo throws and hits lefty. 

 

I'd rather see the Twins add starting pitching.  If they don't adding a RH bat, will be adding lipstick to a pig.

 

That said, if they add starting pitching, getting a RH OF to spell Kepler against LHPs, with a good D also (sorry Grossman) will help them, if they get sign him to an 1 yr /$5-6M deal.   Only FA that can do both is Carlos Gomez.  Even though he lost a step as a centerfielder, the Twins don't need one and he would be a premier defensive corner OF.

Vargas needs a full season chance at DH, so old faithfulls do not need apply...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would say opportunity hasn't been consistent, and that's part of what's led the play to be pretty inconsistent. You are right in that three of his four years look pretty consistent, but even within those seasons, he was inconsistent from month to month.

I was actually referring to month to month performance variation as well. I don't see anything in Vargas's 2017 monthly splits to suggest he was more "inconsistent" than, say, Grossman or Napoli by the same criteria. Check out their monthly tOPS+ numbers at B-Ref (monthly OPS relative to seasob OPS) -- the 3 worst months for each:

 

Vargas: 50, 86, 87

Grossman: 47, 84, 89

Napoli: 44, 83, 91

 

Heck, Mauer had 37, 86, 91.

 

Players aren't robots, their performance is variable, so it struck me as an odd criticism to pin on Vargas alone in this article.

[Winston Smith]

I think they need a RH outfield option to spell Kepler, he is terrible against lefties. IMO they don't need a long past his prime DH.

[Tommygun921]

Only player I'd take is Maybin. Only because of his defensive ability to go with his right handed bat. Vargas is superior to the rest and that's not including rotating Sano, Grossman, and Mauer though DH as well.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't like any of those choices very much.....and I'd prefer someone that can do something other than have a bunch of HRs, but nothing else at all (no defense, no running, no OBP.....those guys offer nothing, imo). I'd roll with Grossman and / or Vargas for now.

[Jham]

I'd be ok with Bautista. Only because I'm a fan. No other corresponding logic. As a part time player, he may be able to bounce back. And he's a fiery leader. So a little corresponding logic I guess.