Article: Report: Darvish Decision Expected This Week, Twins In Consideration

[nytwinsfan]

According to Jeff Passan, neither Darvish nor most of the other free agents still available are anywhere close to signing with anyone, and there is a lot of tension and frustration, if not anger, among the players about the way this offseason has gone. Definitely give this a read:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-players-teams-digging-protracted-standoff-despite-lorenzo-cains-80-million-deal-060605804.html

 

Teams don’t believe a deal is close for Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez, Jake Arrieta and other top free agents, according to sources, even as the 31-year-old Cain’s deal bucked the trend of short-term contracts that do not lock players up past their mid-30s.

 

 

[Platoon]

I think the impression was that the new Twins FO would make for a change in the manner in which high end FA were pursued. The Twins have always proclaimed themselves in on the newest shiny object. The Twins were always "interested", be it FA, trade possibilities, or Cubans. But so far in the SS alloted to the new FO the process is eerily familiar. While Darvish has yet to announce, it seems very much like the ever familiar "gosh, we were right into until the end, we thought we had a very good chance". This is likely the reason skepticism abounds, and optimism is bleak as regards any significant action on the pitching front. Whether one thinks Darvish is the answer or not, the fact of the matter is the Twins are never going to significantly change their position on top flight FA's. While I do believe there is a chance for the new FO to improve the roster by some better evaluation of talent, and hopefully improvise MiLB functions, I have no hope for big time acquisitions or trades. In those two instances the new FO is just like the old one, simply with more hair.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No I am just not excited by this years free agents.  Here is a quote from ESPN today that I really liked about Darvish - Buyer beware: Darvish will be paid like an ace, but he’s more of a six-inning starter these days. His wOBA (weighted on-base average) allowed was .289 through pitch 50 but .334 from pitches 51 to 100, and he lasted fewer than six innings in 11 of his 32 starts.

 

I get not being excited about FAs... they come with risk. Everyone does. I'm more concerned though about stats like this.

 

For one, just about every pitcher will see their metrics regress when framed in this way. I'm not surprised at all that his batting average against went up from pitches 51-100. The pitchers that see this number drop are the outliers, and I'd bet that over the course of a season that you won't find any pitchers who will see their numbers improve or remain the same... Now if ESPN can show some stat that demonstrates that Darvish is significantly worse in this capacity than his peers, I'd be interested in that.

 

Second, Darvish has a career K/9 of just over 11 batters. He probably won't do that going forward, but he should still be very good in that area. That's roughly 1.2 batters per inning that never put the ball in play. That means he's lights out in his first 50 pitches and that those pitches likely cover more than 3 innings. It also means that he afford a higher BABIP in the second half of a game. I realize the Ks don't come consistently at a 1 per inning clip, but you have to accept that part of the reason he's considered an ace is because of the number of batters that never put the ball in play. In the all or nothing outcomes that MLB tends to be right now, you need this guy.

[laloesch]

 

According to Jeff Passan, neither Darvish nor most of the other free agents still available are anywhere close to signing with anyone, and there is a lot of tension and frustration, if not anger, among the players about the way this offseason has gone. Definitely give this a read:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-players-teams-digging-protracted-standoff-despite-lorenzo-cains-80-million-deal-060605804.html

 

LOL tension, frustration if not anger. 

 

OMG, said free agent mlb player is not going to get an extra 2 or 3 million dollars a year this season if they sign a contract.  How on earth can we go on? ohhhh the world is coming to and end for your favorite major league stars.....cry me a river of alligator tears while the rest of us that live in the real world throw pennies at each other.

Edited January 26, 2018 by laloesch

[The Wise One]

 

Darvish had the 12th highest K/9 last year and the 13th highest swstr% last year. It sounds like he is exactly what you want.

The woba is of greater concern

[Vanimal46]

So, we hire Darvish and he's our front-end this year, maybe next ... while Berrios and Romero are moving up. And maybe even the third year we'll have 3 that are 1-2 as Darvish starts his decline and the others are reaching their peak. The thing is, Berrios and Romero becoming front-enders isn't a guarantee. We hope they will be the front-end guys, but that won't be this season or quite possibly not next, either. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on Sano, Buxton, Rosario ... and the rest of our core. Putting off for tomorrow is, imo, not productive for today.

I love this post. This is how we should think about a long term contract for Darvish.

[FunnyPenguin]

 

LOL tension, frustration if not anger. 

 

OMG, said free agent mlb player is not going to get an extra 2 or 3 million dollars a year this season if they sign a contract.  How on earth can we go on? ohhhh the world is coming to and end for your favorite major league stars.....cry me a river of alligator tears while the rest of us that live in the real world throw pennies at each other.

I agree, while I realize they have worked hard to get where they are at, and they do create the revenue for teams, wouldn't it just be hard to not settle for 5/100M and be happy?  Man you could do anything you wanted for the rest of your life (practically) once that contract is up.  I can maybe see if they were a little bit upset, but anger??

[Mike Sixel]

LOL tension, frustration if not anger.

 

OMG, said free agent mlb player is not going to get an extra 2 or 3 million dollars a year this season if they sign a contract. How on earth can we go on? ohhhh the world is coming to and end for your favorite major league stars.....cry me a river of alligator tears while the rest of us that live in the real world throw pennies at each other.

So you side with the billionaire owners? Not me

[Squirrel]

I love this post. This is how we should think about a long term contract for Darvish.

I said that and now my patience is wearing thin and I think we should just sign Lynn and go home. <shrug> At this point for me, it’s not the guaranteed money and/or years I’m concerned with, but my patience and sanity!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For one, just about every pitcher will see their metrics regress when framed in this way. I'm not surprised at all that his batting average against went up from pitches 51-100. The pitchers that see this number drop are the outliers, and I'd bet that over the course of a season that you won't find any pitchers who will see their numbers improve or remain the same... Now if ESPN can show some stat that demonstrates that Darvish is significantly worse in this capacity than his peers, I'd be interested in that.

Furthermore, I'd want to see more than a 1 year split for a player.  Otherwise, comparing his stats in pitch 1-50 versus 51-100 in one season is subject to similar random variation as single-season home/road or platoon splits.

 

I don't know where to find the wOBA pitch count splits, but just looking at opponent OPS, Darvish was actually better in 2017 from pitches 76-100 than 51-75, and in 2016, he was pretty effective all the way through 75 pitches, and in 2013-2014 he was arguably worst from pitches 1-25, etc.  When you break samples up in this fashion, you're going to get a lot of results that can't be explained by any neat theory (other than random variation).

 

Now, if the Twins have some knowledge of his mechanics or pitch movement/velocity consistently breaking down after X number of pitches, or remaining notably different after surgery, that would be worthy of concern. But we don't know that, and the samples are so small that these surface stats aren't even any kind of reliable indicator of that.

 

The fact that they've publicly stated they are "in" on him, with his market widely considered to be in the ~$120 mil range, tells me that they probably don't have many specific concerns which would rise to a "red flag" level.  At that point, it's him versus Archer versus Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and just getting one done.

[laloesch]

 

So you side with the billionaire owners? Not me

 

Not at all.  i just think it's hilarious to see multi-millionaires whine about not getting dramatic salary increases this year.

[AZTwin]

Not at all. i just think it's hilarious to see multi-millionaires whine about not getting dramatic salary increases this year.

It reminds me when 1%er politicians tell us that $1,000 is crumbs and that it makes no difference to us if we get it or not. Meanwhile, they have $1K dinners and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on in flight alcohol on tax payer dimes

[laloesch]

 

It reminds me when 1%er politicians tell us that $1,000 is crumbs and that it makes no difference to us if we get it or not. Meanwhile, they have $1K dinners and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on in flight alcohol on tax payer dimes

 

Exactly.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Furthermore, I'd want to see more than a 1 year split for a player.  Otherwise, comparing his stats in pitch 1-50 versus 51-100 in one season is subject to similar random variation as single-season home/road or platoon splits.

 

I don't know where to find the wOBA pitch count splits, but just looking at opponent OPS, Darvish was actually better in 2017 from pitches 76-100 than 51-75, and in 2016, he was pretty effective all the way through 75 pitches, and in 2013-2014 he was arguably worst from pitches 1-25, etc.  When you break samples up in this fashion, you're going to get a lot of results that can't be explained by any neat theory (other than random variation).

 

Now, if the Twins have some knowledge of his mechanics or pitch movement/velocity consistently breaking down after X number of pitches, or remaining notably different after surgery, that would be worthy of concern. But we don't know that, and the samples are so small that these surface stats aren't even any kind of reliable indicator of that.

 

The fact that they've publicly stated they are "in" on him, with his market widely considered to be in the ~$120 mil range, tells me that they probably don't have many specific concerns which would rise to a "red flag" level.  At that point, it's him versus Archer versus Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and just getting one done.

agreed on all of this... At this point, I just want them to get one done. I'd prefer Darvish, but I'd be happy with any of them.

[mikelink45]

 

I get not being excited about FAs... they come with risk. Everyone does. I'm more concerned though about stats like this.

 

For one, just about every pitcher will see their metrics regress when framed in this way. I'm not surprised at all that his batting average against went up from pitches 51-100. The pitchers that see this number drop are the outliers, and I'd bet that over the course of a season that you won't find any pitchers who will see their numbers improve or remain the same... Now if ESPN can show some stat that demonstrates that Darvish is significantly worse in this capacity than his peers, I'd be interested in that.

 

Second, Darvish has a career K/9 of just over 11 batters. He probably won't do that going forward, but he should still be very good in that area. That's roughly 1.2 batters per inning that never put the ball in play. That means he's lights out in his first 50 pitches and that those pitches likely cover more than 3 innings. It also means that he afford a higher BABIP in the second half of a game. I realize the Ks don't come consistently at a 1 per inning clip, but you have to accept that part of the reason he's considered an ace is because of the number of batters that never put the ball in play. In the all or nothing outcomes that MLB tends to be right now, you need this guy.

k/9 is another misleading stat- how many times does he strike out 9.  It is like the other data.  Great start, poor finish.  We can live with that but not for a pitcher like this at this age if we are going for 5 - 6 years.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

LOL tension, frustration if not anger. 

 

OMG, said free agent mlb player is not going to get an extra 2 or 3 million dollars a year this season if they sign a contract.  How on earth can we go on? ohhhh the world is coming to and end for your favorite major league stars.....cry me a river of alligator tears while the rest of us that live in the real world throw pennies at each other.

Agreed, it is hard to be too sympathetic to the players, but on the other hand the owners have plenty of money and plenty of profits from baseball as well. Plus, even if we don't think it is justified, if the players refuse to sign going into April (which is apparently a possibility) it is going to be a loss for the fans.

[laloesch]

 

Agreed, it is hard to be too sympathetic to the players, but on the other hand the owners have plenty of money and plenty of profits from baseball as well. Plus, even if we don't think it is justified, if the players refuse to sign going into April (which is apparently a possibility) it is going to be a loss for the fans.

 

I'll just stop watching.  My cable bill is already high enough because of them (League, owners and players collectively) and their tv rights.  

Edited January 26, 2018 by laloesch

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

k/9 is another misleading stat- how many times does he strike out 9.  It is like the other data.  Great start, poor finish.  We can live with that but not for a pitcher like this at this age if we are going for 5 - 6 years.  

I assume you mean "how many times does he pitch 9 innings" (since the 9 in K/9 stands for the innings).

 

Workhorse Ervin averaged 6.4 IP per start last year.  Darvish averaged 6.1 (and was at 6.2 before he was traded to the NL).  Archer was 5.9.  Arrieta and Lynn was 5.6 (again in the NL), Cobb was 6.2.

 

For their careers, Ervin is at 6.3, Darvish 6.4, Archer 6.0, Arrieta 6.0, Lynn 5.9, Cobb 6.1.

 

What SP acquisition would target right now, and why?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

k/9 is another misleading stat- how many times does he strike out 9. It is like the other data. Great start, poor finish. We can live with that but not for a pitcher like this at this age if we are going for 5 - 6 years.

I disagree with your argument because it’s not relative in context to his peers. He never goes 9 innings so k9 isn’t relevant. No one goes 9 innings, it’s a rate. His k9 is in the top 12 for all starting pitchers. That’s relative to other alternatives who only one guy on that same plane is available and he’s going to go for similar money. If the alternative is wait for next year, it’s always wait for next year. We’ve heard that for 20 years. Next year is less certain than right now. There are no guarantees.

 

I give you a lot of credit for your conviction and well written arguments.

[mikelink45]

 

I disagree with your argument because it’s not relative in context to his peers. He never goes 9 innings so k9 isn’t relevant. No one goes 9 innings, it’s a rate. His k9 is in the top 12 for all starting pitchers. That’s relative to other alternatives who only one guy on that same plane is available and he’s going to go for similar money. If the alternative is wait for next year, it’s always wait for next year. We’ve heard that for 20 years. Next year is less certain than right now. There are no guarantees.

I give you a lot of credit for your conviction and well written arguments.

Thank you for complimenting my arguments, although they cannot be that good if I can not convince you.  I would love to see a performance based pay that goes up and down - when is the last time that happened?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thank you for complimenting my arguments, although they cannot be that good if I can not convince you. I would love to see a performance based pay that goes up and down - when is the last time that happened?

heavily incentive based contracts are unusual for top end players. The MLBPA is very powerful and the owners bring in tons of tv money. The players association and players agents know it and do a very good job of taking advantage.

 

I for one am very thankful that only 10-15% of my income is incentive based. I choose a stable salary at the loss of top end opportunity.

 

My brother in law is in sales and his rate is flipped, 10-15% salary. He has years where he makes twice what I do. He also has years where he makes less than half. I couldn’t handle that kind of uncertainty.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

k/9 is another misleading stat- how many times does he strike out 9.  It is like the other data.  Great start, poor finish.  We can live with that but not for a pitcher like this at this age if we are going for 5 - 6 years.  

It's not a misleading stat at all. It gives you a really good approximation for how many batters do not put a ball in play. The guy with the lower K/9 puts more balls in play and leaves more up to chance and the hitter's skill.

[gil4]

 

... it's worse than the 'Dozier to the Dodgers - book it!' threads from last year.

 

Let's get on with it!

It was really only one colossal thread, and it was AWESOME! None of the Darvish threads will hold a candle to that one until they hit as least 500 posts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Darvish's twitter feed has gone silent again -- meaning absolutely nothing.

[D.C Twins]

Price is definitely coming down... as his agent is pulling out both the classic desperate leaks...

 

"Got a offer from another team!"

"Going to make a decision by the end of the week!"

 

With a new splash of 

"Are we sure there is no collusion going on?"

 

Translation to all of the above: "Holy @#$%, this is NOT the market we anticipated"

 

Now that the price has come down, don't get too cute Twins....there will not be another opportunity when the Big Boys wake up for next years FA ready to EAT. 

[twinfan]

Let Darvish go to the Cubs or even the Yanks. I'd rather have Arrieta or (mostly) Archer (though we would have to trade for him).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Let Darvish go to the Cubs or even the Yanks. I'd rather have Arrieta or (mostly) Archer (though we would have to trade for him).

i get Archer and his relative youth and contract sitch.

 

Why Arrieta over Darvish?

[nicksaviking]

Let Darvish go to the Cubs or even the Yanks. I'd rather have Arrieta or (mostly) Archer (though we would have to trade for him).

Archer is cheap financially, getting Darvish or Arrieta should not preclude the Twins from getting him.

[mikelink45]

 

heavily incentive based contracts are unusual for top end players. The MLBPA is very powerful and the owners bring in tons of tv money. The players association and players agents know it and do a very good job of taking advantage.

I for one am very thankful that only 10-15% of my income is incentive based. I choose a stable salary at the loss of top end opportunity.

My brother in law is in sales and his rate is flipped, 10-15% salary. He has years where he makes twice what I do. He also has years where he makes less than half. I couldn’t handle that kind of uncertainty.

I understand what you are saying.  As a self employed person I have a lot of uncertainty, but at the level of these contracts if have is base and half is incentive - I think they can survive.

[mikelink45]

 

It's not a misleading stat at all. It gives you a really good approximation for how many batters do not put a ball in play. The guy with the lower K/9 puts more balls in play and leaves more up to chance and the hitter's skill.

I would prefer to see how a pitchers K rate varies from inning to inning.  Does it go up when the sluggers like Sano flail away.  Is it really high in 1 or 2 innings which would make the pitcher more of a candidate for relief appearances.  Does it go away in the fifth and sixth?