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Article: Three Twins Breakout Candidates For 2018

Cody Christie
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Cody Christie MVP

Cody Christie

Twins Daily Contributor
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During every season, there are players who figure something out and take the next step. It can be a pitcher finally gaining command of a third pitch. It could be a hitter making an adjustment at the plate. In 2017, Twins fans saw Byron Buxton put things together on both sides of the ball. He won numerous postseason awards for his defensive prowess and his bat started to come around in the second half.

 

A couple of weeks ago, I identified three prospects to watch in 2018. At the big league level, what players have the chance to rise above the crowd in 2018? Here are three possibilities…Max Kepler, OF

Tom wrote about Kepler’s possible breakout potential and I tend to agree with him. Over the last three seasons, Kepler has played 263 big league games while hitting .239/.310/.422 with 36 home runs and 52 doubles. For multiple years, Kepler was considered one of the team’s best prospects. In his last full minor league season, he compiled a .947 OPS on his way to winning the 2015 Southern League MVP.

 

Left-handed pitchers have been the problem for Kepler in the big leagues. His OPS against righties is over .800 while being limited to .520 versus lefties. During the 2015 season, he combined for an .863 OPS against lefties. If Kepler can solve his lefty conundrum, the rest of the AL better watch out.

 

Trevor Hildenberger, RP

Hildenberger, the side-winding relief pitcher, made his MLB debut in 2017. In 37 games (42.0 IP), he posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 44 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio. Leading into the season, it looked like he was ready to join the big league team after winning back-to-back awards as the Twins Daily Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year. There are some areas of improvement.

 

Throughout his minor league career, he averaged a 1.57 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and a 10.5 SO/9. Hildenberger’s experience and deceptiveness have him poised to be a dominant late-inning relief pitcher. Even if Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed are getting the eighth and ninth, Hildenberger can be relied on for more than three outs after a starter has been removed.

 

Jose Berrios, SP

As a 23-year old, Berrios hasn’t seen everything click yet at the big league level. However, he’s shown flashes of the brilliance that made him one of the team’s top prospects. During his five minor league seasons, Berrios averaged 9.6 SO/9 and that number has dipped to 8.3 through his first two big league seasons. There were always questions surrounding his size and whether or not his strikeouts would translate to baseball’s highest level.

 

When I wrote about Twins players’ resolutions, I though Berrios should focus on increasing his strikeout rate in 2018. Berrios has another gear to hit and 2018 might be the year for him to take the next step. If Minnesota wants to make it back to the postseason, Berrios needs to decrease his walks and command the strike zone.

 

What players do you think have the chance to take the next step in 2018? Will Kepler, Hildenberger, and Berrios be key to the 2018 Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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mikelink45 Wichita Wind Surge

mikelink45

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Those are three good choices.  I especially want to see Berrios take the next step.  Kepler would be great, but I did not see enough to make me think he is ready for the next level. 

 

I felt like Hildenberger already broke out.  I just hope the Twins continue to let him accomplish what he is capable of. 

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bobs Draft Eligible

bobs

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On the pitching side, I agree that we've seen what Hildenberger can be.  I like the bullpen additions.  There's enough organizational depth there that the bullpen should be fine/solid.  If Gibson can just settle for a happy medium btw the two halves of last season, he's a solid back of the rotation guy.  I think we should expect Erv to regress slightly to the mean of his career, which still makes him a solid #2 type starter.  Berrios and Mejia are the two guys who, if they can continue to progress, can make this rotation much more formidable.

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Physics Guy First Round Pick

Physics Guy

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Good list Cody.  It would be great for Kepler to breakout and find a way to reach .700 OPS vs lefties.  Berrios already had a breakout last year and taking another step above that would be great.  Hildy also had an excellent "break-in" this past year and improvement above that would really make for a solid back end to the bullpen.  

 

My "breakouts" for 2018 would just be for Gibson, Polanco and Buxton to continue what they did the second half of 2017.  I also would like to see Mejia get to around a 4.00 ERA and show consistency.

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nicksaviking All-Star

nicksaviking

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I don't know that Hildenberger improves much, he was pretty dang good last year. I think Busenitz has a shot to do more though; I think he's got the stuff to miss way more bats than he did last year. 

 

I'll also jump onto the Gibson bandwagon, his new approach at the end of last year really seemed to pay off. I think his strikeout numbers are going to rise quite a bit making him a much more complete pitcher.

 

Also Brent Rooker of course.

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h2oface Cedar Rapids Kernels

h2oface

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Joe Maier (does he count?), JT Chagrois, and Kepler

 

Shame you have to take all that abise, er, I meant abuse, of course.... just because "i" is right next to "u" on the keyboard, eh? At least they spared you on J.T. Chargois. And they totally gave the other guy a pass on Gonsaleves [sic].

 

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jmlease1 GCL Twins

jmlease1

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I've completely given up on hoping that The Tease (Kyle Gibson) will take the long-hoped for "step forward". I've been burned too many times. I'd love for it to happen, I'm rooting for him...but I expect nothing other than being a back of the rotation innings eater at this point.

 

Kepler and Berrios are both good choices. It's so hard to tell with relievers, but Rogers is a guy I'll be watching this year. I'd consider Granite, but I don't know if he makes the roster at the start of the season, absent a trade of Grossman. (there's a real possibility we'll start the season with a 3-man bench and 13 goddamn pitchers, so there's going to be a huge roster crunch for position guys)

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Drew College Ball

Drew

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I've completely given up on hoping that The Tease (Kyle Gibson) will take the long-hoped for "step forward". I've been burned too many times.

 

I agree, though if we let Gibson go I predict he signs with St. Louis and becomes an ace. And I'm already annoyed by that. 

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