Article: Twelve's A Crowd: Twins Are Rolling In Relief

[Nick Nelson]

 

I guess it boils down to if a person thinks durability is an attribute, or just random luck.
I feel it's an attribute, no different than a 95 mph fastball. Not everyone is capable of staying healthy, and I think Burdi is one of those guys.

Personally I think it varies. Some guys have runs of bad luck. Others have chronic issues that are predictive. If the Twins assessed Burdi as the latter, then that's that. Maybe his elbow's never going to be able to handle how hard he throws. But plenty of players have gotten past early injury issues to fulfill their potential.

 

 

But I'm 100% sure that Derek didn't turn to Thad and say" "Hey, I have a good idea. Let's swap out Burdi and Bard for Kinley, since he's obviously better." 

You're probably right. I just don't get the thought process really, and can't figure it out. What did they expect to get with the 20th pick in the Rule 5 draft?

 

If they cut one of those guys to sign Addison Reed, fine. But they could've made every move they've made so far with one of Burdi and Bard on the 40-man roster. Why not wait until you have to give them up? Especially Burdi, whose 40-man spot opens up again as soon as the season starts? 

 

There's no rule against adding a guy to your roster ahead of the Rule 5 and then dropping him a month later when you sign a free agent, is there? (That's an honest question, maybe there is.)

[PseudoSABR]

I think they have a plan (or an idea of one) to "fix" Kinley that could make him ML ready; they'll use spring training to figure that out. 

 

I'm sure they went to the add process for Rule 5 purposes differently than the Rule 5 draft.  That is, the decision/process to not add Burdi and Bard were separate from the decision/process to draft Kinley. 

[USAFChief]

Almost surely it wasn't specifically Kinley they targeted, but almost as surely Burdi/Bard were left off the 40 man with the idea that the team would make a rule 5 pick.

 

So they are related, at least partially.

[snepp]

 

Almost surely it wasn't specifically Kinley they targeted, but almost as surely Burdi/Bard were left off the 40 man with the idea that the team would make a rule 5 pick.

So they are related, at least partially.

 

Concur.

 

 

But as long as they don't repeat the Haley in-season abomination from last year, I don't really care.

[DocBauer]

While I'm pretty sure he has an option remaining, Duffey seems to be the perfect choice for the long man in the pen. He has been a starter at both levels so his arm is used to the longer workload.

 

Mays needs to keep starting, but will need a little time for control and feel, if not endurance. Pretty much the same for Hughes, if there is anything left at all.

 

Duffey is certainly capable of being more than a long man, but he's the best choice for that role if you really think you need one. (Don't dismiss Slegers as a possibility here as well).

[gman]

Certainly spring training (not soon enough) will provide some interesting battles. Instead of whose the filler while watching for other teams discards, we actually should have battles between good and better with other teams watching us. No doubt there will be someone sent to Rochester who pitched 8 innings with no earned runs given up and 10 srikeouts. I expect a spring training trade or 2.

Edited January 17, 2018 by gman

[Riverbrian]

 

Almost surely it wasn't specifically Kinley they targeted, but almost as surely Burdi/Bard were left off the 40 man with the idea that the team would make a rule 5 pick.

So they are related, at least partially.

 

Or maybe... the selection of Burdi and Bard made them think. "****... We lost two... better grab somebody... who ya got."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There's no rule against adding a guy to your roster ahead of the Rule 5 and then dropping him a month later when you sign a free agent, is there? (That's an honest question, maybe there is.)

Kind of.  Players with less than 3 years service time who are added to the 40-man roster between August 15th and the Rule 5 draft are called "draft-excluded players" and can't be outrighted off the 40-man roster between the end of the World Series until 20 days before spring training, even if they clear waivers:

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3520

 

So if you want to remove that player from the 40-man roster during that time, you can't keep them in your organization -- they must be lost on waivers, traded, or released.  (On an individual level, it doesn't much matter -- a player worthy of Rule 5 consideration would probably get claimed on waivers anyway. But in the absence of such a rule, if a lot of teams did this with 2-3-4 players a year, there probably wouldn't enough roster spots for all of them to get claimed, allowing teams to effectively protect more than 40 guys from Rule 5. Hence the rule, I guess.)

 

Among current Twins, this "draft-excluded" group consists of Curtiss, Gonsalves, Littell, Moya, Slegers, and Thorpe.  That's why I was a little worried when we added Slegers (and why I really disliked adding Pat Dean a couple years ago).

 

Of course, we basically locked ourselves into a similar situation by drafting Kinley -- while he can technically be returned at any time, I don't think any Rule 5 pick in the modern era has ever been returned before March, so unless we plan to buck ~20 years of history, he's just as much locked in until March as Burdi or Bard would have been.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sure they went to the add process for Rule 5 purposes differently than the Rule 5 draft.  That is, the decision/process to not add Burdi and Bard were separate from the decision/process to draft Kinley. 

On a technical level, all transactions are separate, of course. But that doesn't mean they're not related. I'd say fringe 40-man guys who have the same position/profile and whose roster status has to be considered within a few weeks of each other in November/December are going to be inextricably related.

[howieramone2]

 

I wouldn't say that anyone with options is a "lock" for the 2018 Twins pen.  There are 4 pitchers out of options (Rodney, Reed, Duke, Pressly).  If they like to keep Kinsley that makes it 5 and if both Hughes and May ended up in the pen, that's it for Rogers and Hildy, as far as starting the season in the majors...  Not to mention Pineda slated to return after the AS Break, and likely will pitch out of the pen this season.

I assume that they will get at least one starter.

 

Log jam.  They need to start trading people.

There is absolutely no hurry. Kinsley doesn't have a prayer of making it. May will most likely start on the DL and Pineda may be available in September. We have the numbers on our side. Things have a way working themselves out over time. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

But they didn't know that Burdi would get taken and we still don't know if he will be returned. If he makes it through Rule V then the Twins have a big advantage in offseason 40 man roster flexibility for this offseason (and possibly next offseason). 

 

The Twins also didn't know who would be available at pick #20 in Rule V. I do prefer Burdi to Kinley though but after signing 3 FA RP's this offseason I don't think Kinley's leash is too long and he might not even make it through the offseason if the Twins need to open up a couple more 40 man spots.

I don't believe they were unsure of whether or not Burdi would be selected. Every write up I read, Twins specific or outside source, had Burdi as a lock to be taken early in the draft. 

[howieramone2]

 

Concur.

 

 

But as long as they don't repeat the Haley in-season abomination from last year, I don't really care.

18 innings is not an abomination. The board was screaming to see shiny new things, of which Haley was one. Doesn't anyone else want to stop beating the Rule 5 horse?

Edited January 17, 2018 by howieramone2

[Nick Nelson]

 

Of course, we basically locked ourselves into a similar situation by drafting Kinley -- while he can technically be returned at any time, I don't think any Rule 5 pick in the modern era has ever been returned before March, so unless we plan to buck ~20 years of history, he's just as much locked in until March as Burdi or Bard would have been.

Good stuff. Thanks.

[USAFChief]

18 innings is not an abomination. The board was screaming to see shiny new things, of which Haley was one. Doesn't anyone else want to stop beating the Rule 5 horse?

not me. He was returned to the Sox in late July, meaning he took up a 25 man spot (or DL spot) and a 40 man spot for almost 2/3ds of the season. For 18 innings of 6 ERA and a fight started in Detroit.

 

An objective look at Twins management should be able to recognize both th good AND the bad. It was a waste of a roster spot, and gave the manager a 24 man team instead of 25 for a good chunk of a season spent clawing for a playoff spot.

[bird]

 

Almost surely it wasn't specifically Kinley they targeted, but almost as surely Burdi/Bard were left off the 40 man with the idea that the team would make a rule 5 pick.

So they are related, at least partially.

 

I'm not even so sure about that, Chief. They seem to like the whole "keep our options open and stay nimble" thing. Although from a different perspective, it's easy you conclude that they sometimes have a tendency to be indecisive or fickle.

 

Without knowing for sure, I'm inclined to think they made the calls on Burdi and Bard to free up space for whatever opportunities came along and not specifically with a Rule V addition in mind. The scouts submitted their reports on the Rule V guys after that. Falvey studied the scouting reports and concluded, what the heck, we're so sharp, lets try to fix this guy Kinley. 

 

I accuse them of premeditated idiocy regarding Burdi. I accuse them of second degree idiocy regarding Kinley. In both cases, however, we'll have to wait to see what comes out at trial. Maybe there's a not guilty verdict in store because Burdi's development is impeded by something we don't see, or because Kinley is fixable. But I'm relieved they signed Reed, that's for sure.

Edited January 17, 2018 by birdwatcher

[caninatl04]

Why? The Astros, Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees all had 8-10 players throw >20 IP in relief with another 3-7 with >10IP. There is considerable churn in todays bullpens, whether by injury or design. Last season he Twins had 10 players with >20IP in relief with another 14 making an appearance. All the players listed above will get a shot and be needed at some point in the season.

 

In addition Duke and most likely Rodney will be gone next year and need replacing. By trading players this year you weaken next years possibilities too.

And, the Dodgers made significant use of the new 10 day "disabled" list to essentially expand the size of their pitching staff. I would not be surprised if the Twins pick up on this and we see a lot of relievers developing "twinges" after pitching, say, in 3 of 4 or 4 of 5 games and being placed on the 10-day DL.

[specialiststeve]

 

And, the Dodgers made significant use of the new 10 day "disabled" list to essentially expand the size of their pitching staff. I would not be surprised if the Twins pick up on this and we see a lot of relievers developing "twinges" after pitching, say, in 3 of 4 or 4 of 5 games and being placed on the 10-day DL.

There were many teams that used this new rule and I am sure you will see a TON more of this year as teams try to figure out what they are wanting and needing to do with their rotation and bullpen... heck also their position players if there is some question. Love the new rule though as it gets folks back when they are ready.... or when the team is ready

[gman]

The 10 day rule becomes a new way for pitchers (as well as position players) to breakin to the bigs. A couple trips back and forth getting the feet wet and confortable and maybe the big league staff becomes more confident in what the newbie has.

 

The optimistic position is that besides trying to find spots in the bullpen for 2018 for pitchers in waiting is that the list seems to add 3-4 pitchers a year for at least the next several years.

[bighat]

We all like Trevor May. He is a great guy, writes fantastic articles, and really sees himself as a part of the team and Twins Territory. Is it possible that being such a likeable guy skews our perception of his talent?

 

2017: missed due to injury

2016: 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA in 44 games

 

Every bullpen or starting pitching post includes a "What About Trevor?" response. Well, what about him? He's a talented guy who sadly hasn't really proven much in the majors. He's 28 years old. The new Twins front office isn't going to save a place for Trevor, it looks like they're moving forward with guys who have proven talent.

 

I'm cheering for Trevor May as much as the next guy. But it might be time to face the truth: it doesn't look like he's in Falvine & Co.'s plans at this time.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

18 innings is not an abomination. The board was screaming to see shiny new things, of which Haley was one. Doesn't anyone else want to stop beating the Rule 5 horse?

 

Nobody here was screaming to see Haley, the selection of him was nearly as head-scratching as Kinley was this year.

 

The only shiny thing related to Haley people wanted to see was his plan back to Boston.

[kab21]

 

We all like Trevor May. He is a great guy, writes fantastic articles, and really sees himself as a part of the team and Twins Territory. Is it possible that being such a likeable guy skews our perception of his talent?

 

2017: missed due to injury

2016: 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA in 44 games

 

Every bullpen or starting pitching post includes a "What About Trevor?" response. Well, what about him? He's a talented guy who sadly hasn't really proven much in the majors. He's 28 years old. The new Twins front office isn't going to save a place for Trevor, it looks like they're moving forward with guys who have proven talent.

 

I'm cheering for Trevor May as much as the next guy. But it might be time to face the truth: it doesn't look like he's in Falvine & Co.'s plans at this time.

You missed the 11.7 K/9 and 3.45 FIP/xFIP as a RP. Yes, he is still unproven but you don't ignore pitchers with potentially elite strikeout ability. May is exactly the type of player that becomes an elite late inning guy (he May not - so punny...).

 

Just because the FO has filled up the bullpen doesn't mean that May won't find a spot if he is successful in his comeback. My guess is that May goes to extended spring training and then a rehab assignment and he is ready to come up in June when someone is injured or ineffective. The Twins still have a lot of question marks in the bullpen even if it is significantly improved.

Or he might get another try as a starter. That is probably the more likely plan because it is fairly easy to switch to the bullpen after building up your strength as a starter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We all like Trevor May. He is a great guy, writes fantastic articles, and really sees himself as a part of the team and Twins Territory. Is it possible that being such a likeable guy skews our perception of his talent?

 

2017: missed due to injury

2016: 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA in 44 games

 

Every bullpen or starting pitching post includes a "What About Trevor?" response. Well, what about him? He's a talented guy who sadly hasn't really proven much in the majors. He's 28 years old. The new Twins front office isn't going to save a place for Trevor, it looks like they're moving forward with guys who have proven talent.

 

I'm cheering for Trevor May as much as the next guy. But it might be time to face the truth: it doesn't look like he's in Falvine & Co.'s plans at this time.

ERA and Wins are not individual stats, they are team stats. The 2016 Minnesota Twins Won 59 games. That team was historically inept but there was talented individuals on it.

 

As Kab pointed out, May flirts with 12 strikeouts per 9 innings. It’s absolutely worth trying to see if he can do that for extended periods. Pitchers that do that are elite

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've always been a big believer in Burdi's arm and think he'll be a stud reliever in the majors pretty quickly if he gets his health straightened out, so maybe I'm irrational on this topic. Perhaps the Twins have real reason to believe he'll never get fully healthy, I dunno. 

 

I woudlnt' be shocked if the FO is in this same boat. The key words here are "If he gets his heath his heath straightened out".

 

My guess is that front office doesn't think that's likely to happen. Bard is the guy they essentially valued less than Kinley. 

[howieramone2]

 

not me. He was returned to the Sox in late July, meaning he took up a 25 man spot (or DL spot) and a 40 man spot for almost 2/3ds of the season. For 18 innings of 6 ERA and a fight started in Detroit.

An objective look at Twins management should be able to recognize both th good AND the bad. It was a waste of a roster spot, and gave the manager a 24 man team instead of 25 for a good chunk of a season spent clawing for a playoff spot.

Looks like Haley has become Falvey's David Ortiz. Silly me, I've always thought Rule 5 had about as much to do with winning, as what color uniform the team wore on a particular day.

 

It's the slow season, let's keep this thread going. I'm predicting Kinley will follow the Scott Diamond path and not the Haley path. The prospect we trade to Miami, will instantly become a board favorite, and Kinley will remain a board scapegoat.

Edited January 19, 2018 by howieramone2

[USAFChief]

Silly me, I've always thought Rule 5 had about as much to do with winning, as what color uniform the team wore on a particular day.

 

.

You don’t think “who is on the roster” has anything to do with winning?

[howieramone2]

 

You don’t think “who is on the roster” has anything to do with winning?

I never said that though did I. Going back a few posts, I never said the board was specifically screaming for Haley either. 

 

Just say no to myths!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I never said that though did I. Going back a few posts, I never said the board was specifically screaming for Haley either.

 

Just say no to myths!

since when do rule 5 players not have to be on the active roster to stay with the team?

[drjim]

Good tweet from Doogie addressing some of these questions:

 

[drjim]

Though, admittedly, Doogie doesn't wade back into the exhilarating rehashing of the Haley rule 5 pick.

[Danchat]

 

Good tweet from Doogie addressing some of these questions:

Thanks for posting this, I was just going to comment on it. I'm interesting to see how May might slot back in during the month of May, if he does get healthy by then. I would think Gonsalves might have the first shot at a rotation spot, and then possibly May. I don't think Duffey is going to return to the rotation but having guys like him start out as a starter during Spring Training is a common thing for the Twins (Swarzak and Duensing did this before landing in the pen).