Article: Twelve's A Crowd: Twins Are Rolling In Relief

[bobs]

Well, this FO showed last year how they will manipulate the 40-man roster to keep BP arms fresh.  They may break camp with 7 relievers, but we all know we'll see a large number of these guys at some point.  Who comes north may come down to how many options different pitchers have.  The two guys I'm curious about are Hughes and May.  Are they starters?  Relievers?  Where will they be?  This FO has no ties to Hughes...would they dare just release him and eat the $$?

[jrod23]

If I'm in AAA and on the verge of The Show, I'd be ticked w/the Rule V.  Yes, we got Johan Santana that way, but we're flush in the pen right now.  Why would we pick up Kinley?

[cmoss84]

Who is everyone here predicting will be the closer? 7th and 8th inn guys? Or do you think it will be a mixed bag depending on each game's unique circumstances?

 

I think Rodney starts as the closer but has a short leash. Reed the next guy in place. I think Busenitz/Rogers are the 7th inn guys. I love the depth we have! 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Well, this FO showed last year how they will manipulate the 40-man roster to keep BP arms fresh.  They may break camp with 7 relievers, but we all know we'll see a large number of these guys at some point.  Who comes north may come down to how many options different pitchers have.  The two guys I'm curious about are Hughes and May.  Are they starters?  Relievers?  Where will they be?  This FO has no ties to Hughes...would they dare just release him and eat the $$?

I doubt they eat Hughes' salary but agree with the overall sentiment.

 

Depth is good and Kinley is only depth, but if he wins a spot, great stash him. If he doesn't, oh well. There's good pitchers with options who will be up to pitch in the Bigs for significant portions of the season. there will be injuries - there will be performance issues (here's looking at you Rodney, to have one of those two at some point) there's more than enough willingness to utilize the 10 day DL along wit the Rochester Shuttle to get all of these guys good innings.

 

If the FO acquires a starter, there's still two guys in the bullpen who are likely to blow up regularly. If the FO doesn't acquire another starter, there's 3 questionable starters; short starts would be an issue

Edited January 16, 2018 by Sconnie

[Deduno Abides]

Is great having depth in the bullpen.  The bigger question, however, is whether Rochester's bullpen will be better than the Twins?

 

Interesting comment. I don’t think Rochester’s bullpen will be “better” than the Twins’, but it should have some good talent.

 

Enns

Jay

Duffey or Busenitz

Chargois

Moya

Curtiss

Reed, Jake

Kohn (if he returns)

Melotakis

Anderson, NIck

Eades

 

Vasquez and Hackimer could also be there later in the summer.

 

[jrod23]

 

Interesting comment. I don’t think Rochester’s bullpen will be “better” than the Twins’, but it should have some good talent. Enns Jay Duffey or Busenitz Chargois Moya Curtiss Reed, Jake Kohn (if he returns) Melotakis Anderson, NIck Eades Vasquez and Hackimer could also be there later in the summer.

 

Agreed.  I've been high on our AA & AAA bullpen for a few years now.  These guys are close, and we've put some solid pitchers in their future spots.  It's a matter of them seizing opportunities and making the FO's job difficult.

[Vanimal46]

 

Something tells me that Hughes needs to make a FULL recovery, including getting his velo back to 91. He needs to be viewed as a better rotation option than Mejia, Gibson, or Gonsalves.

 

I think May is more likely to come back and claim a spot in the pen.

 

Otherwise, I think Falvey releases him. Why plug up a spot in the pen with a guy who can't give you more than what Duffey gives you? I just don't think they'll stick him in the pen, and I don't think they'll lose sleep over the sunk cost. . If he's not good enough for the rotation, he's not good enough for the pen, not when you have so many options that could blossom for you.

 

That might be a pretty impressive pen down in AAA, especially if they get Burdi or Bard or both back. Jake Reed is still a prospect too..

 

Agreed. It probably helps that it wasn't Falvine who signed Hughes to an extension in the first place. They won't feel obligated to get any value out of him if he's not fully recovered. 

 

It would be quite the surprise if he came back throwing 91 or better! I'm not expecting it, but hey, why not hope?

 

 

[Doomtints]

This is shaping up to be a decent offseason as far as rebuilding the bullpen is concerned. Add in a 3+ starter or two and the Twins will have to be taken seriously by everyone in the division.

[Vanimal46]

 

Who is everyone here predicting will be the closer? 7th and 8th inn guys? Or do you think it will be a mixed bag depending on each game's unique circumstances?

 

I think Rodney starts as the closer but has a short leash. Reed the next guy in place. I think Busenitz/Rogers are the 7th inn guys. I love the depth we have! 

 

That sounds right. Rodney starts the year as the closer, and Reed is the fireman coming in at any high leverage situation. Hildenberger/Rogers are the other 7th/8th inning guys, and the rest will fill in at other times. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't assume Hughes will be in the pen. I wouldn't assume he will be on the team either. Two TOS in two years. I have to think he's done... or at least, I have to think that the assumption is that he's done until he proves otherwise.

[Deduno Abides]

I imagine that Hughes will start the season on the 60-day DL and go through a rehab process, unless he proves that he’s healthy and strong. If he looks just OK and it isn’t clear that he’ll retain his health, it would be better to have his roster spot and hope he can become healthy enough to be helpful later in the year.

[jmlease1]

I think there's more than a small possibility that Hughes starts the season on the DL, and then needs rehab time in the minors to get himself into pitching shape. I love Chargois, but he's got to prove that he's healthy and I'm not betting on him at the start of the season either.

 

I'm not even a little worried about Kinley; we're at a point where a Rule V guy has to show they can contribute or we won't hold a roster spot for them and if he goes I'm not shedding any tears. the heat loss in missing on a Rule V pick is pretty low.

 

Rodney's contract is one where if he's not pitching well we can dump him and roll with a different guy from Rochester and I think that's healthy. And as much as i hate it, there's a better than even chance we come north with an 8-man 'pen.

 

Rodney

Reed

Duke

Hildenburger

Rogers

Pressly (who has earned the skepticism)

Duffey

Busenitz

 

That looks like the first cut. May is going to be tossed in the starter pool (good!). Enns, Kinley, Curtiss, and Moya are fighting for spots. Moya has options, and has never pitched at AAA; he starts there unless Duke or Rogers falters/gets hurt and we need another lefty. Duffey could get dealt (he's exactly the sort of pitcher who gets thrown into a deal so that a team isn't getting all prospects for a legit MLB player/star) but otherwise he's potentially the swingman in the bullpen and needs to fight off Enns or Kinley. Curtiss is going to push Pressly.

 

Those are my guesses right now. Regardless, there's a lot more depth than there was and Reed sure looks like the impact bullpen arm people were complaining the twins weren't gonna sign.

[bird]

 

I gotta think if Hughes isn't healthy, he goes on the 60 day DL - no insurance for his 13M contract if he's released. He did have additional surgery in the offseason, there's on guarantees.

 

 

This makes sense. 

[Thrylos]

I wouldn't say that anyone with options is a "lock" for the 2018 Twins pen.  There are 4 pitchers out of options (Rodney, Reed, Duke, Pressly).  If they like to keep Kinsley that makes it 5 and if both Hughes and May ended up in the pen, that's it for Rogers and Hildy, as far as starting the season in the majors...  Not to mention Pineda slated to return after the AS Break, and likely will pitch out of the pen this season.

I assume that they will get at least one starter.

 

Log jam.  They need to start trading people.

[Nick Nelson]

 

That sounds right. Rodney starts the year as the closer, and Reed is the fireman coming in at any high leverage situation. Hildenberger/Rogers are the other 7th/8th inning guys, and the rest will fill in at other times. 

Yep, I think that's the right layout to expect. And it creates a very favorable situation for Pressly to bounce back, because he'll be able to work in more low-leverage situations early on and build confidence.

[rdehring]

 

Interesting comment. I don’t think Rochester’s bullpen will be “better” than the Twins’, but it should have some good talent. Enns Jay Duffey or Busenitz Chargois Moya Curtiss Reed, Jake Kohn (if he returns) Melotakis Anderson, NIck Eades Vasquez and Hackimer could also be there later in the summer.

I should have clarified my comment.  I meant that Rochester's bullpen may have more upside, guys with higher ceilings, than the big league bullpen. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I wouldn't say that anyone with options is a "lock" for the 2018 Twins pen.  There are 4 pitchers out of options (Rodney, Reed, Duke, Pressly).  If they like to keep Kinsley that makes it 5 and if both Hughes and May ended up in the pen, that's it for Rogers and Hildy, as far as starting the season in the majors...  Not to mention Pineda slated to return after the AS Break, and likely will pitch out of the pen this season.

I assume that they will get at least one starter.

 

Log jam.  They need to start trading people.

If May begins the season healthy, I would hope he's 5th starter and Mejia starting in Rochester

 

2 TOS surgeries for Hughes, I doubt he starts the season active, most likely 60 day DL.

 

there's no log jam

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather see Buesnitz than Kinley, for two reasons:

 

1. He was good in the majors, Kinley was barely good in the minors

2. Buesnitz has options....Kinley does not, effectively.

Edited January 16, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Thrylos]

 

I'd rather see Buesnitz than Kinley, for two reasons:

 

1. He was good in the majors, Kinley was barely good in the minors

2. Buesnitz has options....Kinley does not, effectively.

 

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned),  I'd give them the benefit of doubt.  

 

Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point. 

 

Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr.  His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

Edited January 16, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned), I'd give them the benefit of doubt.

 

Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point.

 

Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr. His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

As opposed to a guy with no options, virtually, and wasn't good in the minors, who is 27....

[bird]

 

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned),  I'd give them the benefit of doubt.  

 

Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point. 

 

Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr.  His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

 

 

There is no connection between what the FO thinks of Burdi or Bard and what they think of Kinley. They did not swap these guys! Disagree with the decision not to protect them by handing them roster spots, but let's please stop conflating the three decisions. That's not how it went down.

[kab21]

 

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned),  I'd give them the benefit of doubt.  

 

Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point. 

 

Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr.  His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

This is a pretty deep statistical dive into 31IP. Busenitz is a complete question mark and we have no idea how he will perform. He does throw 95+ and he did have reasonable K rates in the minors as a RP.

 

One thing I cannot understand is the amount of angst (not necessarily by Thrylos) regarding a Rule V pick. The Twins are taking a shot on a guy with a 95+ FB with 11+ K/9 rates (and awful BB rates). Most likely it doesn't work out but these are the kind of risks (minimal to zero risk) that you should take. I will reserve my angst for the time that he is kept on the MLB roster for too long after it is incredibly obvious that he isn't a MLB caliber pitcher. It is January now so it doesn't matter.

[Nick Nelson]

 

There is no connection between what the FO thinks of Burdi or Bard and what they think of Kinley. They did not swap these guys! Disagree with the decision not to protect them by handing them roster spots, but let's please stop conflating the three decisions. That's not how it went down.

How is it not? They elected not to add either of those two to the 40-man roster so that they could keep an open spot to draft Kinley, then Burdi and Bard (unsurprisingly, especially in Burdi's case) got taken. 

[Nick Nelson]

I've always been a big believer in Burdi's arm and think he'll be a stud reliever in the majors pretty quickly if he gets his health straightened out, so maybe I'm irrational on this topic. Perhaps the Twins have real reason to believe he'll never get fully healthy, I dunno. 

[kab21]

 

How is it not? They elected not to add either of those two to the 40-man roster so that they could keep an open spot to draft Kinley, then Burdi and Bard (unsurprisingly, especially in Burdi's case) got taken. 

But they didn't know that Burdi would get taken and we still don't know if he will be returned. If he makes it through Rule V then the Twins have a big advantage in offseason 40 man roster flexibility for this offseason (and possibly next offseason). 

 

The Twins also didn't know who would be available at pick #20 in Rule V. I do prefer Burdi to Kinley though but after signing 3 FA RP's this offseason I don't think Kinley's leash is too long and he might not even make it through the offseason if the Twins need to open up a couple more 40 man spots.

[Mr. Brooks]

I've always been a big believer in Burdi's arm and think he'll be a stud reliever in the majors pretty quickly if he gets his health straightened out, so maybe I'm irrational on this topic. Perhaps the Twins have real reason to believe he'll never get fully healthy, I dunno.

I guess it boils down to if a person thinks durability is an attribute, or just random luck.

I feel it's an attribute, no different than a 95 mph fastball. Not everyone is capable of staying healthy, and I think Burdi is one of those guys.

No loss, IMO.

[Twodogs]

I feel that someone like Duffy should be the long guy. I hope they put Hughes in Rochester to get some rehab starts in before they decide what to do with him. He's getting paid 13 million I can't really see him arguing about it too much given how he has pitched recently, and given that he is recovering from injury.

[Mr. Brooks]

I feel that someone like Duffy should be the long guy. I hope they put Hughes in Rochester to get some rehab starts in before they decide what to do with him. He's getting paid 13 million I can't really see him arguing about it too much given how he has pitched recently, and given that he is recovering from injury.

I'm not sure they'd have him pitch in Rochester in April if he's rehabbing.

Ft. Myers or Chattanooga would be more likely.

[bird]

 

How is it not? They elected not to add either of those two to the 40-man roster so that they could keep an open spot to draft Kinley, then Burdi and Bard (unsurprisingly, especially in Burdi's case) got taken. 

 

That makes it sound like they had a specific premeditated plan to draft Kinley. They didn't.

 

I can't explain their thinking on Burdi and disagree with the decision on the surface. We'll see if anything illuminating surfaces that helps explain it, but it's confounding, I agree.

 

They clearly wanted to keep some open slots. There's no admission by Falvey that they had Kinley in mind going in, or anyone else for that matter. I can't explain THAT call either.

 

They probably still think Bard makes it back to the Twins.

 

But I'm 100% sure that Derek didn't turn to Thad and say" "Hey, I have a good idea. Let's swap out Burdi and Bard for Kinley, since he's obviously better." 

Edited January 17, 2018 by birdwatcher

[Danchat]

 

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned),  I'd give them the benefit of doubt.  

 

Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point. 

 

Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr.  His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

If Busenitz keeps those numbers up, his ERA is going to rise. However, I think he can take another step forward in year 2 and up that K rate because his stuff suggests he can get more strikeouts. If it doesn't happen, ship him off to AAA and try out someone else. Busenitz is projecting to be cleaning up games and not pitching a bunch of high leverage situations, so it's not as if he'll be pitching in high leverage situations right off the bat.