Article: Twins Arbitration Notes

[Seth Stohs]

Friday at noon was the deadline for players and teams to work out arbitration agreements before both sides exchange numbers.

 

Kyle Gibson remains the only Twin who has not reached an agreement yet. His agent and the Twins exchanged numbers this afternoon. The Twins offered $4.2 million while the Gibson side countered at $4.55 million.The Twins had seven arbitration-eligible players following the 2017. However, they non-tendered catcher Chris Gimenez shortly after the season. So, Friday was a big day for six Twins players. Here is the breakdown:

 

 

EDUARDO ESCOBAR

 

The Twins utility player turned every day player (almost every season) put up his best year to date in 2017. This is his final season before becoming a free agent. He made $2.6 million in 2017. Twins Daily projected he would make $5.0 million in 2018 while MLB Trade Rumors predicted $4.9 million. The two sides reached an agreement on Thursday night at $4.85 million.

 

ROBBIE GROSSMAN

 

Grossman spent most of the 2017 as the Twins primary DH and he had another good season. This is his first chance to make some serious money through arbitration. Twins Daily projected a 2018 pay day at $2.0 million. MLB Trade Rumors projected $2.4 million. The two sides agreed at $2.0 million, avoiding arbitration.

 

 

RYAN PRESSLY

 

While 2017 was another year full of ups and downs (including time in AAA) for Pressly, he ended the year quite strong. In 2017, he made $1.175 million in his first arbitration season. Twins Daily predicted $2.0 million for Pressly, and MLB Trade Rumors projected $1.6 million. He agreed at $1.6 million.

 

EHIRE ADRIANZA

 

The Twins acquired Adrianza last offseason and he became a solid contributor in a utility role, playing around the infield and even getting time in left field. Twins Daily and MLB Trade Rumors both predicted that he would make $1.0 million in 2018, and that is the number that the two sides agreed upon.

 

TREVOR MAY

 

May missed the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery. He will return to the Twins sometime in 2018, hopefully fairly early. His role has not yet been established. Will he get another chance to start, or will he return to the bullpen? And which role would be best for him? Twins Daily predicted he would get a bump to $1.0 million in 2018. MLB Trade Rumors predicted he would receive $600,000. The two sides agreed at $650,000.

 

KYLE GIBSON

 

In general, 2017 was a tough season for Kyle Gibson. In fact, he was twice sent down to AAA Rochester. However, when he came back, he was much better. In fact, he was arguably their most consistent (maybe even best) starter down the stretch. In his final 12 Twins starts of 2017, he went 7-2 with a 3.57 ERA (and the Twins went 10-2 in those games) Twins Daily predicted he would make $5.5 million in 2018. MLB Trade Rumors projected a $5.3 million salary for Gibson.

 

According to Jon Heyman, the Twins offer to Kyle Gibson is $4.2 million and the Gibson side is asking for $4.55 million. The $350,000 difference would seems to be small enough that the sides should be able to meet somewhere in the middle, maybe even through some incentives.

 

NOTE - We should soon hear the exchanged dollar figures between Gibson and the Twins. This will be updated at that time.

 

Click here to view the article

[puckstopper1]

Good news all around - especially if Gibson was also signed.  I never like the arbitration battles as it can sour the relationship between players and management.

 

According to BP/Cots, it looks like if you add the Arbitration guys and the additional salaries for 0-3 year players, it looks like the Twins are around $97M payroll wise.

 

That makes me feel they have some additional room for free agents - I hope...

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins

 

 

 

[tvagle]

Has there been verification on Park's remaining salary obligation? Did he forfeit the remaining or are the Twins still on the hook??

 

Not finding anything here's where I see the Payroll sitting after avoiding arbitration

 

 

Feel free to Make a Copy my Twins Payroll Tool and plug in your own numbers

[Mike Sixel]

thanks for compiling it all in one place!

 

They are woefully under 52% right now....

[clutterheart]

 

thanks for compiling it all in one place!

 

They are woefully under 52% right now....

 

Darvish should solve that problem

[Seth Stohs]

 

thanks for compiling it all in one place!

 

They are woefully under 52% right now....

 

According to this Forbes article (https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/), the Twins revenues last year were $249 million. 

 

Based on that, 48% would be $119.5 million, and 52% would be $129.5 million. 

 

Signing Darvish and one bat would certainly put them into that range. Signing any of those top 4 free agent starters and one more player would put them there.

 

(Note - I'll acknowledge that their 2018 revenues (and presumably their projections) are likely maybe $10 million more than the 2017 revenues, though I have no idea). 

[Thrylos]

 

According to this Forbes article (https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/), the Twins revenues last year were $249 million. 

 

Based on that, 48% would be $119.5 million, and 52% would be $129.5 million. 

 

Signing Darvish and one bat would certainly put them into that range. Signing any of those top 4 free agent starters and one more player would put them there.

 

(Note - I'll acknowledge that their 2018 revenues (and presumably their projections) are likely maybe $10 million more than the 2017 revenues, though I have no idea). 

 

This is correct.  However, the Twins have more revenue than that.  If you look at that number 2 note, but the revenues, Forbes defines them as "Net of stadium revenues used for debt payments.".  This means TF revenue only.  Not counted  are Radio and TV deals for away games, plus Fort Myers revenue...

So the real revenue is a bit higher, maybe 20-30% so...

 

[rdehring]

The team and player/agent both submit their number to the league without knowing what the other is offering, correct?

 

Have you ever heard of a situation, Seth, where the player's request was less than the team's offer?  If so, do you know what the result was?

[Thrylos]

 

The team and player/agent both submit their number to the league without knowing what the other is offering, correct?

 

Kinda.  Because supposedly they have been talking for a few weeks before going to arbitration.  Pretty sure that the Twins have approached Gibson with an offer to settle, and probably was a counteroffer, so both  parties know the numbers.  Not exact, but ballpark.

[tvagle]

Here's Darvish at 6 years/$160M (MLBTR projection) added in

 

 

[tvagle]

 

According to this Forbes article (https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/), the Twins revenues last year were $249 million. 

Forbes info on the "2017 Forbes Info" tab in my Payroll Tool

 

Also, apparently went crazy with ratios and attendance/payroll trends on another tab

Edited January 13, 2018 by tvagle

[Thrylos]

 

Here's Darvish at 6 years/$160M (MLBTR projection) added in

 

 

Got to subtract a bit from Gibson.  He filed at $4.55M and the Twins at $4.2M

[tvagle]

 

Got to subtract a bit from Gibson.  He filed at $4.55M and the Twins at $4.2M

 

Thanks

 

Hadn't seen that, changed the sheet to higher number ($4.55M) until final number is in

[yarnivek1972]

They’ll probably settle at 4.38.

[Thrylos]

 

They’ll probably settle at 4.38.

 

Nah.  They will go through the process as a learning lesson for the new guy in the FO.  They pretty much said so...

[h2oface]

It just seems cheap and petty, when so close to Gibson's asking price, that the Twins won't just pay it and be done with it.

[AKTwins]

Depending on Hughes' health, insurance may cover part of that.

[Doctor Wu]

 

 

Here's Darvish at 6 years/$160M (MLBTR projection) added in

 

 

I'd love for the Twins to sign Darvish, but the idea of a 6-year contract --- especially for an aging pitcher with TJ surgery --- makes me very, very nervous!