Article: The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now

[KirbyDome89]

 

Based on second halves, why not extend Gibson then?  

 

And it is not that simple.  He is extremely inconsistent, had a great September of 2016 and then cooled off again.  Not sure what we are seeing is not a mirage.  

 

Let's see him have a quality 1st half next season, and then let's talk about extensions or not.  There is replacement who will be ready before he runs out of team control...

You could easily say the same thing about Rosario. He certainly was helped by a hot August/September last year. He has had his own issues with consistency and there are other obvious warts. Why is he an extension candidate but Buxton isn't? 

[DuluthFan]

Buxton has yet to establish a baseline or floor on his production. Is he a career player like the first half or second half? You can't offer a long term extension based only on half a season's worth of production. He won't accept a contract based on his first half and the team cannot offer a contract based only on the second half.

 

If you wait until numbers are exchanged in the first year of arbitration, you will find out what kind of numbers the player is looking for. At worst the team will be on the hook for a single year contract based on his actual production in comparison to other players of similar age and skill. A long term extension can then be negotiated with an idea of what both sides are looking for.

 

Buxton also ended the year with an injury. It would be hard to sign a long term contract with an injured player without seeing if that injury had affected his play.

 

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, until the owners step up and show what kind of payroll this team can support, I don't think there is any reason for Buxton to sign longterm. He makes minimum this year and then has three arb years left. He could realistically make 40m in just those three arb years without locking himself to the team. 

First arb year - 4-7m

second arb  year - 11-16m

third arb year - 16-20+

 

Charlie Blackmon just got 14m in his third year, Donaldson just got 23m! Machado is going to the arbitrator b/c he couldn't come to an agreement but he'll easily get 20m, I'd bet. Salaries are sky rocketing. And as a FA at 28, he should bet on himself at this point.

[USAFChief]

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.

 

I read that as "all liver" and could not figure out what that meant!

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins locked up Dozier ahead of his true breakout, at a time where he hadn't posted an OPS over 762 and was hardly a star yet.

 

I would have zero objections if they locked him up to a Dozier-like deal

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

I don't think you'll ever get Sano to sign an early deal like that.

 

Got to try before you try Buxton.  If for no other reason that there is no obvious replacement for him in the organization, where there likely is for Buxton...

[Platoon]

I won't even begin to try and put numbers on a Buxton extension. But as a general point, if I was going to extend anyone, maybe anyone in MLB, it would be him. His ceiling is stratospheric. And his floor is only going to be determined with an injury, which is unforseeable. His defense is already elite, as is his speed and baserunning. His hitting may not end up elite, but I bet there will be a lot of guys on the stat sheets looking up at him. As for whom, Buxton or Sano to tie down first? I don't see that as much of a decision. Injuries and other issues have riddled Sano with question marks. He, not Buxton would be the one I let settle in for a year. Btw, I totally agree with the poster that said without some more quality pitching, this whole conversation may be irrelevant.

[ashbury]

 there is no obvious replacement for him in the organization, where there likely is for Buxton...

Small Sample Size, sliced-and-diced stats, yadda yadda yadda, but...

 

Didn't the team make a post-season push, sans Sano? His game log on b-r.com shows the team went 58-56 with him, marginally better at 27-21 without.

 

Whereas with Buxton in the lineup, even with the horrific start at the plate, they went 77-63 with him, and a putrid 8-14 when he was out.

 

Looks like the Twins managed to find players to fill in for Sano, while they struggled to find a way to replace Buxton. The data, insufficient though it may be, points in the other direction you suggest. Is Granite an obvious replacement for Buxton? Hardly. Who else we got knocking on the door?

[Thrylos]

 

Small Sample Size, sliced-and-diced stats, yadda yadda yadda, but...

 

Didn't the team make a post-season push, sans Sano? His game log on b-r.com shows the team went 58-56 with him, 27-21 without.

 

Whereas with Buxton in the lineup, even with the horrific start at the plate, they went 77-63 with him and a putrid 8-14 when he was out.

 

The data, insufficient though it may be, points in the other direction as to which player is more indispensable. Is Granite an obvious replacement for Buxton? Hardly. Who else we got knocking on the door?

 

 

Second part of the post:

Royce Lewis will likely be ready within the 4 years of Buxton control.

 

First part of the post:

Counter arguments (SSS and all.)

 

1. if Sano were not a monster in the first half, the Twins would not be close to making the post season

2. if Buxton was playing at 20% below league average offensively in the first half the Twins would not have to be sellers at the break, thus potentially going further in the post-season.

Really the bottom line is that Sano is more irreplaceable that Buxton, based on who is around in the Twins' organization.  Top 5 exit velocity does not grow on trees.  What Buxton brings on the table does not either, but Royce Lewis brings the same skill set as well.  If I were to dangle someone in a trade a couple years from now (with Lewis being there) it would be Buxton because there is ready substitute.

 

[ashbury]

1) Royce Lewis will likely be ready within the 4 years of Buxton control.

 

2) Top 5 exit velocity does not grow on trees.  What Buxton brings on the table does not either

1) Your take on Royce Lewis, while hardly crackpot, is a thread-the-needle combination of pessimism (over his glove at SS) and optimism (his glove in CF plus his bat) and exact timing. I wouldn't personally base contract decisions on someone two years away - we've seen the damage of decisions made under the assumption that guys like Aaron Hicks will arrive exactly on time as though riding the morning light rail into Target Field.

 

2) That is a more favorable view of Buxton than I recall seeing from you, and I am content to close by accepting your view of both players, and to agree to disagree on how you and I would both implement contract decisions based on that view.. I can think of holes to poke in my own 2017 season argument that you were too polite to mention, and I could work up a rebuttal to yours, to little value to anyone.

[rdehring]

 

I don't see how those are even comparable. Gibson is 30 and his brief periods of success basically amount to league average performance for a month or so at a time. He's never going to cost a fortune if he finally clicks, so there's not much of an advantage for the Twins to lock him up. He doesn't even have a ceiling as an all star.

 

Buxton is 24 with a crazy high ceiling and already is elite on D and the basepaths. If he starts hitting consistently over a full season then his contract demands will skyrocket 6 months from now. By the time you've waited for him to prove it he's got the leverage to jack his price up 50%.

 

I don't think you'll ever get Sano to sign an early deal like that. There's a reason he went to Roc Nation as soon as he could. He's got his sights set on big things and taking a cheap deal to get locked up in Minnesota through his prime isn't part of that. That, and I have a suspicion he sees himself as more like Harper/Machado than as the "3 true outcomes" injury-prone slugger he's shown to be so far. The value gap between those two types of players is too enormous to close right now.

You just made a great case for why it makes sense to trade Sano as soon as trading him makes sense.  Unfortunately, with the injury and his off field problem it is going to be July at the earliest that the Twins may be able to get fair value.

[HitInAPinch]

"$100-110 million for 7 years or $80-90 million for 6 "

 

I'm in the IDK Camp.  I'd like to see another year of improvement at the plate to seal the deal.  But you can't ignore the improvements at the plate over the years.  If Buxton's improvement continues next season, he could be a very sought after commodity around the All Star Break.  

 

Twins have got to resign him, that's a given.

 

[Thrylos]

 

 Your take on Royce Lewis, while hardly crackpot, is a thread-the-needle combination of pessimism (over his glove at SS) and optimism (his glove in CF plus his bat) and exact timing. I wouldn't personally base contract decisions on someone two years away - we've seen the damage of decisions made under the assumption that guys like Aaron Hicks will arrive exactly on time as though riding the morning light rail into Target Field.

 

Why do I see Lewis at CF vs SS?  Wander Javier. These guys are at the same level at pretty much the same age and will be ready about the same time.  Javier's arm is stronger, Lewis can probably cover more land as an OF.   That's why.  Both of these guys have top 20 prospect written all over them.

 

The point with Lewis (and Javier) is that because the Twins have 4 yrs of team control on Buxton and do not have to make a decision until 2-3 years from now, they can make this decision based on how Lewis (and Javier) develop, especially given the fact that Buxton has not have sustained success with the bat.  Yet.

 

Hicks was not ready.  He is now.

[terrydactyls]

Really the bottom line is that Sano is more irreplaceable that Buxton, based on who is around in the Twins' organization. 

It is also very difficult to get much value from a player who may be either suspended or in jail for sexual assault. I would not offer Sano any long-term deal until he gets himself straightened out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Good points being made in this thread. It's quite possible that early extensions for top players will not be as cheap as they were in yesteryear, if they continue to exist at all. 

 

If the FO can get one done, great. If it means paying Buxton near-market a couple years from now, so be it. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Thrylos]

 

It is also very difficult to get much value from a player who may be either suspended or in jail for sexual assault. I would not offer Sano any long-term deal until he gets himself straightened out.

 

A. It is an allegation from one person that the MLB is examining.  I'd wait to pronounce him guilty before he is found as such.

B. There is zero probability that he will end up "in jail", since there was no police report filed before the statute of limitations expired for those alleged "crimes".

 

[nicksaviking]

Why do I see Lewis at CF vs SS? Wander Javier. These guys are at the same level at pretty much the same age and will be ready about the same time. Javier's arm is stronger, Lewis can probably cover more land as an OF. That's why. Both of these guys have top 20 prospect written all over them.

 

The point with Lewis (and Javier) is that because the Twins have 4 yrs of team control on Buxton and do not have to make a decision until 2-3 years from now, they can make this decision based on how Lewis (and Javier) develop, especially given the fact that Buxton has not have sustained success with the bat. Yet.

 

Hicks was not ready. He is now.

Lewis and Javier are 18-19 and in the lower minor leagues. What are the odds the both pan out? 15-20% max?

[Thrylos]

 

Lewis and Javier are 18-19 and in the lower minor leagues. What are the odds the both pan out? 15-20% max?

 

You got 3 years to see how it goes, before you make any decisions on Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You got 3 years to see how it goes, before you make any decisions on Buxton.

 

By then you either won't be able to afford him, or he isn't worth keeping. I can't see a good argument for not doing the "cheap" extension, from the Twins' side, at all. Unless you are totally risk adverse, there does not seem to be a good reason not to sign him and buy out years. 

[Monkeypaws]

Moneywise, much better to give Buxton a gradually increasing long-term deal than shoot the wad on a free-agent that will command top dollar from start to finish. If he busts, which is unlikely, your losses will be much easier to recoup than 25x6 type deals, which a logical extension for BB would never approach. 

 

If he plays up to expectations, you got a deal.

[Thrylos]

 

By then you either won't be able to afford him, or he isn't worth keeping. I can't see a good argument for not doing the "cheap" extension, from the Twins' side, at all. Unless you are totally risk adverse, there does not seem to be a good reason not to sign him and buy out years. 

 

Not an issue of risk adversity.  An issue of: a. higher priorities to spend $ (Pitching) b. higher priorities for others to get extended (Sano, Rosario), c. not quite sure about who Buxton is with the bat and d. availability of possible replacement.

[bighat]

 

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.

 

EXACTLY! People who are saying "wait and see" don't seem to realize that Buxton may already be out of the Twins' price range.

 

If the Twins don't extend him now, they may never have a chance. He's a 24 year-old gold glove CF, folks. Who by the way was also voted best defensive player OVERALL in baseball, given the Wilson Award. Buxton stole 29 bases and got caught once. He even drove in a run and swiped a base in the playoff game against the Yanks.

 

I was a Buxton detractor last April during his slump. But his play since then has completely turned me around. Buxton is the real deal, think Andrew McCutcheon with better defense. We should all be clamoring for an extension, immediately.

 

If ya ain't clammorin', stop yer yammorin'!

Edited January 13, 2018 by bighat

[h2oface]

If I were Buxton, I would not sign an extension. If he performs, he can make plenty of money through the process, and set himself up for a maximum payday when he hits free agency. I like it when a player takes the risk upon themselves, instead of living life to be paid even when they can't do the job. Not so good for the team economics, perhaps, if they do become the consistent superstar, but better for the player. Sure he can get hurt. So can we all.

[Monkeypaws]

 

If I were Buxton, I would not sign an extension. If he performs, he can make plenty of money through the process, and set himself up for a maximum payday when he hits free agency. I like it when a player takes the risk upon themselves, instead of living life to be paid even when they can't do the job. Not so good for the team economics, perhaps, if they do become the consistent superstar, but better for the player. Sure he can get hurt. So can we all.

Your post exemplifies everything I hate about professional sports. 

[ashbury]

Your post exemplifies everything I hate about professional sports.

What would that be? Gumption? ☺

[TL]

It will be expensive, but nothing compared to what it would be after next year if he even has a similar year as ‘17. I agree with bighat that it may be now or never. If we wait and still sign him later it may come at the expense of being able to keep the core together (Kepler, Sano, Berrios, etc) or having dollars to sign free agents. And if it turns out in a few years Royce is not a SS but instead a top CF prospect who is blocked by Buxton, then so much the better as we can trade him for a top starter or whatever we may need at the time.

[killertwinfan]

I am not sure either party has much of an understanding of what to expect from Buxton in the future.  Injuries, regression at the plate in 2018 instead of improvement would have a great affect on his leverage and value to the team.  At some point he will have to quit diving for balls.  When is that and how will it affect his defense.  Pay this guy $20M per year and maybe I am ok with him not diving for everything. 

 

On Dozier, I think we should expect him to leave upon free agency.  Gordon, or whomever better be ready.  

[beckmt]

Count me in the extend him now camp.  He will never by cheaper, and if it is $7/140 or even a little more I am OK with it.  He is the next face of the franchise, pay the man. It will never be cheaper than now. 

[jorgenswest]

What recent comps are there for younger players signing away their arbitration and maybe a few free agency year away?

 

The Altuve deal was 2013. Singleton 2014. Astros haven’t been able to make similar deals with Springer or Correa.

 

I would think Buxton would need to blown away by a deal to sign. In any case, the Twins can afford to pay for play in arbitration. They can’t afford to commit significant money towards poor performance.