Extend high-upside "prospect" Morneau today?

[DPJ]

Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

 

You were doing well, but you just lost me with this right here.

[70charger]

No way do you offer him a contract. Ride him out through this contract if you can't trade him. We have the cards here. If TR can get a decent deal, then we trade him. If we can't then keep him at the 14.5 for next year. If he over performs next year, you offer him the 11.5-12 million one year deal. If he takes it, we get our Mornie, if he declines, we get a sandwich round pick. I don't think we need to go out and shop this guy hard.

 

I also think we can shed some cash if we do trade him, if LA comes in and offers us that young pitching prospect if we pay half his 2013 salary, I jump at that. That is a great deal for us. I like the guy, but this is a business and he has not given us half of the production you need for 14.5 mil a year. He should be the most thankful Canadian in the US. We haven't wasted money on a Canadian like this since the Titanic soundtrack.

 

I hate that I agree with this, because I love Morneau. But business-wise, this is what seems to make sense. I'd love to think that we could get a Morneau extension for Willingham money, but first off, I don't think it would be allowed with the new CBA, and secondly, I think it would make more sense not to rush it so that we can at least listen to offers at the 2013 trade deadline.

[beckmt]

Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

 

You were doing well, but you just lost me with this right here.

 

What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.

Sorry if I was not clear

[DPJ]

What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.

Sorry if I was not clear

 

If this team loses for the next 2-4 years, getting Mauer's contract off the books wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I hope that Mauer wants to win, that it doesn't matter if he's surrounded by a bunch of *******s he hates. Whatever your personally feeling are for a friend and co-worker, at the end of the day this is a business of wins and loses and moving on from Justin and onto Parm so this team can finally get some damn pitching in here is what's best for business.

 

To potentially sign a guy to 30 million dollars cause it makes Joey happy is one of the worst reasons I've ever heard to sign a guy. Mauer is not KG, Morneau isn't Thud...no more friendship contracts.

[beckmt]

What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.

Sorry if I was not clear

 

If this team loses for the next 2-4 years, getting Mauer's contract off the books wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I hope that Mauer wants to win, that it doesn't matter if he's surrounded by a bunch of *******s he hates. Whatever your personally feeling are for a friend and co-worker, at the end of the day this is a business of wins and loses and moving on from Justin and onto Parm so this team can finally get some damn pitching in here is what's best for business.

 

To potentially sign a guy to 30 million dollars cause it makes Joey happy is one of the worst reasons I've ever heard to sign a guy. Mauer is not KG, Morneau isn't Thud...no more friendship contracts.

 

I would agree if Morneau was not worth the 8 - 10 mil a year. I still agree if an offer makes sense trade him. I just feel that resigning for 2 -3 years of a fair contract is not a bad thing. Only reason to not do this is is you feel that the Twins will not compete for years and then it makes sense to move Mauer also.

I do not feel this is the case and do not want the Twins to become like Kansas City, Seattle, or Houston(which could happen if they adopt some of the changes a few people of this forum recommend. (Editorial done)

[DPJ]

I would agree if Morneau was not worth the 8 - 10 mil a year. I still agree if an offer makes sense trade him. I just feel that resigning for 2 -3 years of a fair contract is not a bad thing. Only reason to not do this is is you feel that the Twins will not compete for years and then it makes sense to move Mauer also.

I do not feel this is the case and do not want the Twins to become like Kansas City, Seattle, or Houston(which could happen if they adopt some of the changes a few people of this forum recommend. (Editorial done)

 

It's time to look at the Twins for what they are now...the Twins are KC, Seattle and Houston. This team isn't going anywhere for the forseeable future, so why wrap 30 million into a guy when you have a cheap MLB ready 1B waiting in the wings. The 8-10 million is better spent on pitching and more pitching and then some more pitching instead of an injury prone 1B.

[mk]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

Adam Dunn was 30 years old when he hit free agency and, up to that point, was pretty much a lock for 500 PAs, a .260 average, a .400 OBP, and 35-40 home runs.

[DPJ]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all.

[Thrylos]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

 

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day.

 

So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row.

They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line.

 

As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that?

[mk]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all.

 

Not saying that doesn't have any value, of course it does, just trying to put perspective on where the market is. Quality first basemen, even ones with flaws, make a lot of money.

[Willihammer]

Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

 

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

[Boom Boom]

Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

 

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

 

If the Pohlads want to boost their payroll by $20 million a year I'd have no problem with that. But they won't, so if I want to see the Twins return to relevance they'll need to spend their money more wisely than they have recently.

 

White Sox fans don't worry as much about payroll because the Sox are willing to go after players like Dunn and Rios.

[JB_Iowa]

I want this franchise to make decisions based on what is best for their chances of success at playing BASEBALL not on PR reasons. In my opinion, considering PR factors has been part of this team's troubles.

 

If extending or re-signing Morneau makes sense because he is the best player available for the money (and significantly better than a lower cost player), then fine, do it. But do it because it makes baseball sense.

 

Fans will adjust -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans would adjust if Mauer left town -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans know that players come and go -- but they are generally fans of the TEAM.

 

Let decisions be made on creating a baseball TEAM that can compete with the BEST in mlb and everything will be okay. Making decisions based on players' PR or marketing value is the eventual road to ruination.

[mk]

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

 

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

 

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day.

 

So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row.

They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line.

 

As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that?

 

Morneau and his $15M contract isn't the reason the Twins are going to lose 90+ games this year, it's the $16M for Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis. I'd guess that comparing the WAR for Morneau to those guys makes Morneau's $15M look like a steal.

 

Also, it's no sure thing that your're going to get the same production between Parmelee and Morneau. Parmelee 1.3WAR from 2011 is nice, but he also played quite a bit to begin 2012 (27 of the first 36 games). I don't know what his WAR was but he hit .179/.250/.262 striking out in nearly 23% of his plate appearances. For the record, based on his 50+ games at AAA in 2012 I think Parmelee deserves a chance to play and could really help the Twins, but so can Morneau even at $15M.

[beckmt]

If you pay 7 million to get a better prospect back when to trade Morneau then you will have 12.5 million in sunk costs next year. That is close to 15% of the payroll. Also for the forum people who are looking at this for the year, look only at the last two months of Morneau producton. He may get more than 8 - 10 million a year after next year, but if you cannot get him to sign a reasonable extention, by all means trade him. He is in late prime and not over the hill for the next two years, so a three year contract seems about right.

It will cost over 12 mil to offer him arbitration at the end of next year and he might take that. That to me does not seem to be a good use of money, otherwise he walks at the end of next year and the twins get nothing in return. Market has changed, rules have changed, The players helped change the CBA to make the Tampa Bay model less attractive. Note the changes.

[BeefMaster]

Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

 

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

[greengoblinrulz]

Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.

Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

[TheLeviathan]

Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.

Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

 

Most of the time - "buy lows" are low for a reason. I think you're vastly underrating the value of pitching in general and specifically of Romero. Morneau is not going to be enough to get that deal done.

[kab21]

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

 

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

[Alex]

Morneau is one of my favorite Twins and it saddens me to see how things have gone for him (, and this goes double so for what I'm about to say (though great to see him on the mend).

 

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect? What we do know is that he is not worth $15M do

 

The irony here, and maybe the missed point, is that I actually believe the way Parmelee is playing and their comparable salaries, you're likely to get more for him than Morneau.

 

In my opinion, if you can trade Morneau for a SP prospect and shed $15M, you do it; but I really don't see the Twins getting an offer like that. It's a no-brainer. I'd say the exact same thing is true of Parmelee. However, I don't think he's worth that either and thus no way a player making $15M can be either with the track record of injuries Morneau has and the fact that while he's hitting great, he's really not worth $15 at 1B.

[70charger]

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

 

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

 

Can anybody with a solid grasp of the new CBA clarify this for us? Would we be allowed to offer Morneau, say, half of what he makes now?

[70charger]

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

 

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

[Alex]

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

 

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

 

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

[beckmt]

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

 

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

 

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

 

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

[kab21]

the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5678:2012-2016-basic-agreement&catid=36:cbas&Itemid=48

 

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with <6 yrs of service. It's everyone. the smallest extension that Morneau can be offered is around 11M/yr.

 

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5678:2012-2016-basic-agreement&catid=36:cbas&Itemid=48

 

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with

 

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

 

If they really wanted to do it, they could renegotiate Morneau's contract for 2013 at $11m and then put him at, say, $9m for two more years. It's possible but it would require some interesting negotiation.

[kab21]

That might be possible or it might not. Even if it was Morneau shouldn't be locked up for 4 years (3 yr ext). go yr to yr with vesting options so you don't end up with a 10M long-term cheerleader.

[Alex]

 

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

 

Somehow I don't see the Sox getting rid of one contract like that for another, even if it's only a year, and then giving up prospects in addition. Boston got a great deal here, and my point was the Twins missed out, as reports say they were contacted again this week about Morneau by LA.

[70charger]

It may not be the Twins' fault that they missed out on this deal. Morneau probably went on waivers, but the Dodgers were likely blocked by another team. Of course, there's no way to know this for sure. Maybe Terry Ryan just didn't like what the Dodgers had on offer.