Article: Did Nick Gordon’s Second Half Turn Him From Prospect to Suspect?

[Steve Lein]

 

To be fair, when a prospect plays a full season at one level they tend to end up near the top of the lists in counting stats. He led the Southern League in plate appearances and had nearly 100 more ABs then his next closest teammate.

 

I get this from a team perspective, and it's fair. 

 

In the league sense though I don't buy it, and is why I included those rankings. He was a leadoff man so of course he's getting more plate appearances than most.

 

I'll single out the Total Bases. Of the top 40 in the southern league last year, only 4 players played fewer than 100 games. In the top 16 nobody had fewer than 119. 

 

Of the guys that "played [the] full season at one level" he is a standout in a lot of categories. It doesn't matter that they are the "counting stats" in this view (at least to me )

 

[Deduno Abides]

I don't understand what aspect of "human nature" would cause Levine to want to get rid of Ryan-era draftees. Wouldn't that mean they want to get rid of Buxton, Berrios, etc.? The players don't really have a personal connection to the previous leadership, so I think there's zero chance Falvey or Levine will treat prospects differently based on who drafted them.

 

Of course, they may evaluate players differently, but that could work in either direction.

 

I agree with the rest of your post, but that part was way off base.

People do it all the time. A new boss comes in and clears out the old team, especially people that were particularly identified with the old boss. It’s not personal, it’s often not fully logical, but it’s just human nature, i.e., the new boss doesn’t even know why he rates the old team so low. Edited January 11, 2018 by Deduno Abides

[Dantes929]

Glass is half full and half empty.  Its up to Gordon to move the needle.    If he ends up being league average that is ok with me.   League average is underrated.  For example if we had  league average at 7 spots in the lineup but Buxton and Dozier were exceptional we would have well above average lineup.    I am still not sure what Gordon offers that Polanco does not.

[drivlikejehu]

 

People do it all the time. A new boss comes in and clears out the old team, especially people that were particularly identified with the old boss. It’s not personal, it’s often not fully logical, but it’s just human nature, i.e., the new boss doesn’t even know why he rates the old team so low.

 

This is completely different - your analogy works with the front office, but not with the players, especially not minor leaguers. What you're saying is more akin to a new plant manager throwing out his production equipment because it was already there when he arrived. Zero chance this is a thing for the Twins.

[The Wise One]

 

People do it all the time. A new boss comes in and clears out the old team, especially people that were particularly identified with the old boss. It’s not personal, it’s often not fully logical, but it’s just human nature, i.e., the new boss doesn’t even know why he rates the old team so low.

Name 1 baseball team that turned over most of their organization in 2-3 years with a change of leadership

[Deduno Abides]

Name 1 baseball team that turned over most of their organization in 2-3 years with a change of leadership

If you’re willing to change “most” to “a bunch,” I’d start the list with the Astros, Cubs and Dodgers. Management almost always tries to bring in its own guys, e.g., Giminez, Napoli and Darvish at the major league level. In football, Bill Parcells was the epitome of this change.

 

Regardless, we’re getting a little off topic. I propose that new management sometimes subconsciously rates some of its players ahead of some of the players it inherited, and that such a psychology may affect internal ratings of Gordon. If other TD participants think that never happens in any organization and didn’t happen here, OK.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Deduno Abides

[Thrylos]

In my 2017 Twins' top 60 prospects' list, I had Gordon listed at number 5, up from number 9 the season before.  And here is what I wrote specifically about him (link here) : 

 

ETA: 2018

Nick Gordon was drafted by the Twins as the 5th overall player in the 2014 draft from Olympia High School in Orlando, FL.   He started his pro career in 2014 playing for Elizabethton hitting .294/.333/.366 (101 wRC+) with 11 BB and 45 K (17.6 %), and 11/18 SB (61%).  In 2015 for Cedar Rapids, he hit .277/.336/.360 (104 wRC+) with 39 BB and 88 K (16.5 %), 25/33 SB (76%).  There was incremental improvement on the base paths, but in general similar results.  At this point he exhibited some gap power (23 doubles, 7 triples and 1 HRs in 535 PAs, 0.083 isoP), but it does get neutralized against LHPs (.264/.325/.291; only extra base hits were 3 doubles in 110 PAs against LHPs.)  He started the 2016 season in Fort Myers, where he made a leap forward hitting .291/.335/.386 (112 wRC+) in 116 games (493 PAs), with 17,6 K% and 0.095 isoP, stealing 19/32 bases.  His BABIP (.353) was close to his .333 and .352 of the previous 2 seasons, which means that a BABIP around .350s is not out of question.  He continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit a very impressive .346/.418/.444 (144 wRC+) in 21 games (91 PA), but inflated due to an unsustainable .475 BABIP.

 

Gordon's glove is about average at SS, and he projects to stay in the position.  His bat still projects as a major league average, however he was again neutralized against LHPs (.220/.276/.254 in 118 AB in Fort Myers last season.)   He had good speed, but not great base stealing instincts that need a lot of work.  His season at Fort Myers and his success in Arizona are promising, but the ones who were hoping for a star with the 5th overall pick would be disappointed at Gordon, because he does not project as one. Gordon is a non-roster invitee in the Twins Spring Traning, but not MLB-ready at this point.

Likely 2017 path: Starting AA Chattanooga shortstop

 

This season he was worse against LHPs (.174/.273/.240), had concentration lapses on the field, the range issues continued at SS.  This off-season instead of trying to address his weaknesses and becoming a better ballplayer, he started making music, so his priorities are not the way they should be with a "top prospect".  And talking about a guy who never bettered a .749 OPS in the minors.

 

Have not finished my 2018 prospect list yet, but methinks that Mike was generous with Nick Gordon in the BA list.

 

[drivlikejehu]

Regardless, we’re getting a little off topic. I propose that new management sometimes subconsciously rates some of its players ahead of some of the players it inherited, and that such a psychology may affect internal ratings of Gordon. If other TD participants think that never happens in any organization and didn’t happen here, OK.

 

 

You seem to think that the front office views prospects as their subordinates, which simply isn't the case. There is no connection at all to a typical office environment (except of course within the front office itself). Though there is a human element involved at some level, to Falvey and Levine prospects are basically just assets. They couldn't care less about who brought them into the org. Whether you believe it or not, that's unquestionably the way it is.

Edited January 12, 2018 by drivlikejehu

[Deduno Abides]

You seem to think that the front office views prospects as their subordinates, which simply isn't the case. There is no connection at all to a typical office environment (except of course within the front office itself). Though there is a human element involved at some level, to Falvey and Levine prospects are basically just assets. They couldn't care less about who brought them into the org. Whether you believe it or not, that's unquestionably the way it is.

Hey man, you’re entitled to your opinion, but I think the sports internet would blow up if any executive ever said anything like he considers all prospects as “basically just assets.”

 

Also, we’re off-topic, so I’m going to self-moderate and not discuss this issue further. You can post more if you want, but if you’d like to discuss it more start another thread. Thanks.

[kab21]

The question I posed during the season when he was HOT (and he was really hot) and basically an untouchable prospect was if he was actually that good (SSS). Weren't his K rates, BAPIP and L/R splits warning signs in the 1st half? I don't have his full 1st/2nd half splits but I remember there being warning signs.

 

I think the question should be 'Did Gordon's 1st half lead many to overrate him?'

 

No doubt he is a good prospect and a better one than a year ago. I would also probably bump him up a few places on a Twins prospect list but I think he became very overrated at midseason. Many considered him untouchable for Sonny Gray for example. That (say Gordon and Gonsalves) would be considered a great trade now.

[Tomj14]

 

I get this from a team perspective, and it's fair. 

 

In the league sense though I don't buy it, and is why I included those rankings. He was a leadoff man so of course he's getting more plate appearances than most.

 

I'll single out the Total Bases. Of the top 40 in the southern league last year, only 4 players played fewer than 100 games. In the top 16 nobody had fewer than 119. 

 

Of the guys that "played [the] full season at one level" he is a standout in a lot of categories. It doesn't matter that they are the "counting stats" in this view (at least to me )

I think this works for the majors, but you also have to look at which players moved on and which players moved into the league.

I was completely for drafting Gordon and have been on his bandwagon the last few years, but some of his shine has went away for me. He is 22 and looking at repeating AA (it seems to me most super studs have seen the majors by 22, I could be wrong on that)  and we still are not sure of his position. So I have no issue with him falling a bit in the Twins prospect list, but that is also why I am fine with trading him for pitching.

[Steve Lein]

 

I think this works for the majors, but you also have to look at which players moved on and which players moved into the league.

 

There's very few that come up as what I'd call "standouts" of these guys in my comparison: Ronald Acuna, Nick Senzel, Rudy Flores, Colin Walsh, Dalton Kelly, Kevin Madrano, Andy Wilkins.

 

Only Acuna and Senzel are worth talking about, and I don't think anyone would argue Gordon above them in a prospect comparison. I know what you're looking for, but that argument isn't there.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It really is not about attacking the messenger (reporter in this case), everyone should have a list that reflects their own evaluation, but rather this is a fun list because it raises questions and therefore gives us the fun of speculation and discussion. I have no dislike for any of our MN reporters, the more articles the better for me.

 

Gordon at 8 is fine with me. I think his second half decline raised questions about the validity of the first half. Each year the reviews and reports seem to have a slightly less optimistic look at Gordon. It appears to me, if I combine the various TD and other reports that he will be a fine average major leaguer, but not a star. Which is fine, but it is nice to know that we actually have some others in the system now that have higher potential.

 

​My biggest question in Kirilloff. I want to hope, but I need a full season of ball to see where the injuries have put him. I am much higher on Rooker.

i like Rooker a lot, but he’s 23 with one professional season under his belt. Let’s see if he slows down when/if he gets to Nooga.

[Deduno Abides]

Warning: not expert commentary!

 

I saw a few snippets of video of Gordon batting this winter. He looks bigger and like he’s attacking the ball.

 

End warning.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Deduno Abides

[ashbury]

Warning: not expert commentary!

 

I saw a few snippets of video of Gordon batting this winter. He looks bigger and like he’s attacking the ball.

 

End warning.

How does a bigger-and-stronger Gordon impact his ability to remain at SS, do you suppose?

[Deduno Abides]

How does a bigger-and-stronger Gordon impact his ability to remain at SS, do you suppose?

Other than improving his overall value, who knows? Sticking at shortstop will probably depend on three variables:

 

1. His glove.

2. His bat.

3. Who else is on the team.

 

For example, if his bat is good and his defense is good enough, he’ll probably stick at shortstop, unless someone with a better glove and a good enough bat pushes him to second. Bobby Grich, a great fielder, was moved to second because the Orioles had a superlative fielder at shortstop and thought they could survive Belanger’s weak bat (which they did).

 

The Twins could also go down the path of thinking that Polanco has a good bat and good enough glove, with Dozier and other candidates to play second (Luis Arraez) and seem Gordon’s highest value to be as a trade chip, regardless of any improvement he shows, other than as it affects his trade value.

 

Things will shake out in 2018.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Deduno Abides

[mikelink45]

 

i like Rooker a lot, but he’s 23 with one professional season under his belt. Let’s see if he slows down when/if he gets to Nooga.

I agree, but I think his age and experience have him ready for a fast rise.  I would love it.  But all of minor league experience is filled with pitfalls and obstacles.  Good luck Rooker!

[sftwinsfan]

Well, now we know why Gordon had a rough 2nd half, obviously he was working on his new rap album!  http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2018/01/12/264649332/nick-gordon-dees-brother-and-top-prospect-in-the-twins-organization-launched-a-rap-album      Maybe he can record new walk-up music for Mauer in spring training.  

[laloesch]

I'm surprised to see Tyler Jay at #10.   I'd probably have him fringe 20 at this point.  The kid's stock has just plummet the last two seasons.  I'd put Lewis Thorpe in at #10 or Zach Littell.  

[Deduno Abides]

Well, now we know why Gordon had a rough 2nd half, obviously he was working on his new rap album!  http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2018/01/12/264649332/nick-gordon-dees-brother-and-top-prospect-in-the-twins-organization-launched-a-rap-album      Maybe he can record new walk-up music for Mauer in spring training.

 

It sounds like that episode of Friends when Ross said he was going to spend his summer vacation “working on my music.”