Baseball America Top 10

[beckmt]

Biggest lack I see on this list is a big left handed bat.  May not be necessary but would be nice to have.

Was very encouraged by the number of decent pitching prospects the Twins have.  Looks good for the future if we can get some of the young position players signed to long term contracts.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Yup, all of them had people questioning their ability to stick at shortstop...

Now that's funny. Made me laugh out loud. Good sense of humor here...or were you serious? That's one problem with written communication. I can't see whether there was a smile on Seth's face or a concerned frown.

[gunnarthor]

 

Considering Nick Blackburn once topped this list, it is no surprise there was a bit of a dark stretch.  Would Nick Blackburn circa 2009 have made this list at all?

 

With all the projecting with this list, I'm surprised Thorpe isn't on it.

Well, by 2009, he was an established big leaguer in his second season with the Twins and about to put up his second 200ip, 2 WAR season so ...

 

But right before the 2008 season, Nick Blackburn was ranked #56 overall by BA. They liked him a lot and said he could be a #3 type. I don't think Kiriloff will be ranked in BA's top 100 so Blackburn would likely slot in at #3 on this list. We don't seem to have the data for his ground ball rate in the minors, except for 21 innings in 2010 (and it was over 60% in that SSS), but I remember reading about how Blackburn was a worm killer (and he was #9 overall in the AL in 08-09 in that) and his fastball sat around 92 (fangraphs agrees). The concern was he didn't miss enough bats but write ups were really excited about some changes he made in the 07 season and he struck out nearly a batter an inning in the Arizona Fall League. Klaw wasn't as big on him, BA was the high man, but even Klaw thought he had a good command of his pitches and understood pitching so thought he could be a solid back-end starter, which he was for a few years.

[markos]

On a scale of 1 (zero reason for concern) to 10 (he's going to be a bust), how worried are you about Javier's strikeouts? He K-ed in 27% of his PA last year, which was actually more than Sano when he was in Elizabethton. I'm probably at a 7 right now.

[gunnarthor]

 

On a scale of 1 (zero reason for concern) to 10 (he's going to be a bust), how worried are you about Javier's strikeouts? He K-ed in 27% of his PA last year, which was actually more than Sano when he was in Elizabethton. I'm probably at a 7 right now.

5? Players strike out more so we're going to have to get used to that. Doing a fangraph search and there were 345 players in the rookie leagues that got at least 150 at-bats last year. 65 of them had a worse K% than Javier. Many of them were older.

[biggentleben]

 

On a scale of 1 (zero reason for concern) to 10 (he's going to be a bust), how worried are you about Javier's strikeouts? He K-ed in 27% of his PA last year, which was actually more than Sano when he was in Elizabethton. I'm probably at a 7 right now.

 

I'm probably at about a 2-3. He's got a great swing, but he was exposed to some very quality breaking stuff at that level, likely for the first time. He did adapt well in at bats from reports and the bit of video that I saw.

 

What will be something to watch with Javier is how much he believes in his power - and sells out for it. His swing allows for excellent loft but also gets great contact right now, but too much adjustment for more loft would likely hurt his contact rate without giving enough power production to compensate based on his frame. I'd compare it to when Andrelton Simmons had 17 home runs his first full season in the majors and adjusted his swing way too much. He ended up having issues accessing his natural gap power from line to line, which he was able to access more finally last season. Javier could face more strikeouts if he would have that same issue with an adjustment to his swing to try to get power.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Likelihood is the second part of the equation.  

 

and clearly ignored. Gordon has a high likelihood of making the majors. Guys in rookie ball do not.

[drivlikejehu]

It seems to me like prospect rankings should simply reflect who the author would rather have in his or her minor league system (assuming a generic system).

 

If someone was given the choice between Graterol and Gordon, and would rather have the former, then it makes sense for Graterol to be ranked higher regardless of "likelihood." 

 

The BA top 10 only stands out to me with respect to Kirilloff and Jay. The former doesn't project to bring a ton of defensive value and hasn't had the chance to really show anything yet. Jay is a reliever with some recent injury issues.

 

While the low ranking for Gordon is an outlier, it's not necessarily crazy - if Gordon wasn't a first round pick with his family history, he almost certainly would be getting less attention. An OK-fielding second baseman who can't hit lefties has basically no value.

 

I think he certainly can be more than that, but he has plenty of AAAA risk, which is just as significant as the other risks prospects can have (e.g., injury risk, lack of exposure to advanced competition, etc.).

[AZTwin]

 

It seems to me like prospect rankings should simply reflect who the author would rather have in his or her minor league system (assuming a generic system).

 

If someone was given the choice between Graterol and Gordon, and would rather have the former, then it makes sense for Graterol to be ranked higher regardless of "likelihood." 

 

The BA top 10 only stands out to me with respect to Kirilloff and Jay. The former doesn't project to bring a ton of defensive value and hasn't had the chance to really show anything yet. Jay is a reliever with some recent injury issues.

 

While the low ranking for Gordon is an outlier, it's not necessarily crazy - if Gordon wasn't a first round pick with his family history, he almost certainly would be getting less attention. An OK-fielding second baseman who can't hit lefties has basically no value.

 

I think he certainly can be more than that, but he has plenty of AAAA risk, which is just as significant as the other risks prospects can have (e.g., injury risk, lack of exposure to advanced competition, etc.).

 

If those are the rules my list would go as follows.

 

1. Royce Lewis 

2. Wander Javier

3. Blayne Enlow

4. Stephen Gonsalves

5. Brent Rooker

6. Nick Gordon

7. Fernando Romero

8. Brusador Graterol

9. Alex Kiriloff

10. Lewis Thorpe

[Mr. Brooks]

Not yet. He did this in 2016 too, though his rapid start lasted much longer in 2017 before he cooled off. I suspect he's still working on the endurance aspect of being a full time player... I'm more concerned about his abilities against lefties. I still think he's got the potential to be above average in every category, but likely not elite in many if any at all.

He's played 3 seasons of full time ball. If he's still struggling with endurance, that's something I'd be very concerned about, especially at his age.

[howieramone2]

 

Castro is on the books for one more year after 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if you simply see Garver dig into Castro's PT. There really isn't another catcher close to the majors for 2019. Catching is probably the biggest hole in our farm system right now.

I agree it was, but I think we've made some decent moves to fix that. The 2nd round pick from the Madison area in the 2016 draft and the one we received from Seattle for IFA money. Until those two are ready, you can always find backup catchers in free agency. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree it was, but I think we've made some decent moves to fix that. The 2nd round pick from the Madison area in the 2016 draft and the one we received from Seattle for IFA money. Until those two are ready, you can always find backup catchers in free agency. 

 

I think the problem is that there's still way too much projection with those two and not a whole lot of indications that both will be good. I'm not quite sure the Twins should hitch their catching wagon on Rortvedt (and I like the kid)... I wouldn't be surprised if they took a lot of catchers in the draft this summer.