Baseball America Top 10

[drjim]

Quite different than the typical list.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/#Q1DBl4Cb4vSpVAQd.97

 

Aggressive on Javier, Graterol, not concerned about Kiriloff, not buying Gordon.

 

I don't necessarily agree, but I like breaking out of the typical lists.

[Seth Stohs]

Mike Berardino put the list together. I'm sure it's reviewed by the Baseball America prospect guys... Very interesting list...

 

Nick Gordon is too low. I know that. He's top 40 in several national rankings, yet #8 with the Twins? I don't know. I do like the guys ahead of him too, but 8 is too low. 

[nytwinsfan]

Kind of ridiculous to have Graterol so high and ahead of Romero and say, Lewis Thorpe, when he's literally pitched 5 games at Elizabethton. At least Baddoo and Javier each have 150 PAs in Elizabethton, although Javier being second is also ridiculous.

[nytwinsfan]

Also, Polanco has not been "untrustworthy" at SS. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference say his defense was actually positive last year.  Totally undermines the credibility of the list for me, to get something like that so clearly factually wrong.

[2wins87]

Interesting list, looks like it might be the outlier this year.

 

After Lewis, I don't think there's any clear order, but I do think Gordon, Gonsalves, and Romero are in their own tier based on proximity, floor, etc, so it's a little surprising to see them so mixed up.

 

I like lists with diverging opinions on certain guys, but there's a lot of volatility in this one.  If I'm judging list accuracy, I like to use WAR total over a player's arbitration and pre-arbitration years.  It takes a long time to be able to judge, and there are always misses on guys where there is a consensus as a prospect, but I feel like this one will probably be significantly wrong just based on the volatility of the guys near the top of the list.

 

As a side note, I have a feeling that everyone is missing on Garver, who could probably rack up 10+ WAR at catcher over the next 6 years just by being decent.  Developing major league catchers is hard, I'm not sure why Garver hasn't gotten more attention given how close he is, I have a feeling he'll end up being more valuable than at least 3 or 4 of the consensus top 10 guys.

 

[gunnarthor]

Interesting list. They are certainly high on Javier and Mayo had a similar article on him earlier this offseason, that I don't have a link to.  BA was generally the low man on the Twins system last year (bottom third, IIRC) and I think they'll take a similar view this year with maybe only two players in their finished top 100?

 

I'm glad we have another list - both BA and Sickels are higher on Rooker than I thought we'd see (and Javier, too, but that might just have been my ignorance on him).

[ashbury]

As a side note, I have a feeling that everyone is missing on Garver, who could probably rack up 10+ WAR at catcher over the next 6 years just by being decent.  Developing major league catchers is hard, I'm not sure why Garver hasn't gotten more attention given how close he is, I have a feeling he'll end up being more valuable than at least 3 or 4 of the consensus top 10 guys.

If Berardino originated this list, then I have to believe the Mitch Garver omission is due to signals he is getting that the Twins decision makers dislike something deeply about his game.

[PseudoSABR]

Proximity to the majors clearly wasn't much of a factor.  This is more like a Top 10 list of highest ceiling guys. 

[Tomj14]

They way I see this list is that they are predicting Javier will be the starting 3B in 2021, Lewis starting SS and Gordon either not here or not a starter and by that they should be rated higher.

[Ben Noble]

Note that Lewis is named best defensive INF in the system. Opinions on Lewis' defensive acumen and where he'll eventually settle in defensively seem to be all over the place.

[nicksaviking]

Well this was the disclaimer right away:

 

For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings.
 

So yeah, that list looks about right if they are putting the most weight on ceilings. Graterol is almost all ceiling and everyone has pretty much been saying since Day 1 that Gordon just has a really high floor but isn't going to excel in any one area.

 

But Lewis as the top INF defender? Yeah, take that pre-draft doubters. Good athletes can learn footwork. That always sounded like such a hollow criticism; if he didn't have good footwork, it's almost certainly due to not having elite instruction. Now he does.

[Tomj14]

 

Proximity to the majors clearly wasn't much of a factor.  This is more like a Top 10 list of highest ceiling guys. 

7 of the 10 they are predicting will be starters in 3 years says something about proximity?

[markos]

 

But Lewis as the top INF defender? Yeah, take that pre-draft doubters. Good athletes can learn footwork. That always sounded like such a hollow criticism; if he didn't have good footwork, it's almost certainly due to not having elite instruction. Now he does.

The questions about his defense were more about arm strength rather than footwork. Though that also can improve through instruction.

[PseudoSABR]

 

7 of the 10 they are predicting will be starters in 3 years says something about proximity?

Three years is a long way away.   Put another way, the possibility of contributing next year does not seem to be have been a factor in the list (e.g. Gordon, Romero, Jay, and Gonsalves (to a lesser extent) are ranked more poorly in this list than others)

[Han Joelo]

Considering Nick Blackburn once topped this list, it is no surprise there was a bit of a dark stretch.  Would Nick Blackburn circa 2009 have made this list at all?

 

With all the projecting with this list, I'm surprised Thorpe isn't on it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Kind of ridiculous to have Graterol so high and ahead of Romero and say, Lewis Thorpe, when he's literally pitched 5 games at Elizabethton. At least Baddoo and Javier each have 150 PAs in Elizabethton, although Javier being second is also ridiculous.

Baseball America has always been about ceiling, and Javier has a very high ceiling... And Graterol easily has the highest ceiling among starting pitchers, with Romero a close second. So, I get the rankings. I just factor maybe too many other things into mind. But individually, I don't have a huge problem with the guys that are ahead of Gordon, but Gordon is way too low. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

If Berardino originated this list, then I have to believe the Mitch Garver omission is due to signals he is getting that the Twins decision makers dislike something deeply about his game.

 

Or it could just be that he's 27 and a lot of people see him as a backup catcher, especially with Castro in the picture... Granted, there's nothing wrong with a backup catcher, and the reality is that some of these top 10 won't get to where Garver is right now. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Considering Nick Blackburn once topped this list, it is no surprise there was a bit of a dark stretch.  Would Nick Blackburn circa 2009 have made this list at all?

 

With all the projecting with this list, I'm surprised Thorpe isn't on it.

 

I think I ranked Blackburn like 21 that year or something... then again, I may have had Tyler Robertson #1, so... that's the beauty of prospect ranking!

[ashbury]

Or it could just be that he's 27 and a lot of people see him as a backup catcher, especially with Castro in the picture... Granted, there's nothing wrong with a backup catcher, and the reality is that some of these top 10 won't get to where Garver is right now. 

Yeah, I wrote that before having it pointed out that this was a "high ceiling" list. Ironic, since the last time I commented on a ranked list I asked pointedly what the metric was, and here I failed to notice it when it was stated by the writer.

[bird]

 

Note that Lewis is named best defensive INF in the system. Opinions on Lewis' defensive acumen and where he'll eventually settle in defensively seem to be all over the place.

 

 

Yeah, I don't know which local scribe was commissioned by them in 2006, but they would have had you believe that Trevor Plouffe was the best defensive infielder in the system at the time. 

 

Edit: on second glance, it was Berardino.

[TNTwinsFan]

Their projected 2021 team looks to be a fairly young team. I like that. Seemingly great depth for power, speed, and defense. I'm not sure of the power projections for Javier, but, I do remember reading something saying he could develop solid power.

 

The starting pitching also looks REALLY solid. I would prefer to see Thorpe over Mejia, but, if Mejia is the 5th starter over Thorpe, that's not a bad thing necessarily.

 

Judging by this list, I think it looks like Twins fans are in for a real treat for the next decade

[mikelink45]

I really liked this list.  It is truly about ceiling, no confusion.  My hope is that Lewis is so good he makes his MLB debut next year, even if just part of a year.  I have watched the excitement about Gordon since we drafted him and so far have not been as excited about the numbers and things I read.  He looks like a good pick, just not the potential star that Lewis is. 

 

Luckily we have moved on from the Wimmers and Levi years - I hope.  

 

The guy that might blow by the others on the list is Rooker.  I like what I have seen and read.  I think his bat will play in mlb quite soon.  

 

In this smokeless hot stove year its nice to have this to think about. 

[sthpstm]

 

Note that Lewis is named best defensive INF in the system. Opinions on Lewis' defensive acumen and where he'll eventually settle in defensively seem to be all over the place.

If you see divergent reports on where he will settle defensively, are you reading old, pre-draft reports.

Everything I've seen on him since the draft believe that the advances he made post-draft indicate he can not only stick, but could be very good at SS.

[maxisagod]

 

If you see divergent reports on where he will settle defensively, are you reading old, pre-draft reports.

Everything I've seen on him since the draft believe that the advances he made post-draft indicate he can not only stick, but could be very good at SS.

 

I think it had more to do with maximizing his strengths. He was fast and could cover a lot of ground, and had a lot to learn at SS. But if he's a great leader in the infield, has a drive to get better defensively, and the Twins have Buxton in CF, keep him at Short and you could have something special. 

[Mike Sixel]

there are still people saying he won't be a short stop. The fangraphs gut just said it in a chat. I don't think we know yet.

[markos]

 

Luckily we have moved on from the Wimmers and Levi years - I hope.  

You might be surprised how quickly the Wimmers and Levis return once the Twins start drafting in the mid-to-late 20s for several years in a row. Such is the rhythm of baseball...

[bird]

 

You might be surprised how quickly the Wimmers and Levis return once the Twins start drafting in the mid-to-late 20s for several years in a row. Such is the rhythm of baseball...

 

It's important to note that many of the same talent evaluators were at the table for the later picks of Gonsalves, Rooker, and Enlow, all listed above, and for the drafts involving Wimmers and Levi (both reasonable picks), and also for the selection of a guy like Garver in the 9th round as the 19th catcher selected and possibly the top catcher from that draft. The points being that 1) sometimes you get the benefit of a talent-rich draft in the slot you have, and sometimes not; 2) sometimes you make a mistake (Matt Moses), and sometimes you look like a genius; and 3) sometimes it's just luck, good or bad.

[biggentleben]

 

Kind of ridiculous to have Graterol so high and ahead of Romero and say, Lewis Thorpe, when he's literally pitched 5 games at Elizabethton. At least Baddoo and Javier each have 150 PAs in Elizabethton, although Javier being second is also ridiculous.

 

I would take Graterol over any pitcher not names Gonsalves, so I don't see a major issue there. Gordon's biggest outlier I see.

 

Playing time doesn't truly matter in ranking a prospect outside of showing a guy with "good, not elite" talent has maximized his talent through hard work, or whatever other attribute(s). Rankings are most about talent and impact. Heliot Ramos will almost certainly be the only Giants top 100 guy, and he was the guy for that before they made the Longoria trade as well, even though other guys have made it all the way to the majors behind him.

[biggentleben]

I will give Berardino credit. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone else do a 2-hour chat on the top 10 list before!!

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1515589722

[Deduno Abides]

Projecting Castro to extend for two more years and start in 2021 is interesting, especially IRT Garver.

 

There have to be other catchers available as FAs between now and then. Surprising to be projecting someone who will be on the downside.

 

I wonder if any of these rankings and assessments are based on hints from the FO. It seemed that LEN3 and others were often expressing FO attitudes during the TR era, wonder if Berardino has that angle now.