Article: Why I Believe The Twins Are Going To Sign Yu Darvish

[lukeduke1980]

Let's bring him in for a meeting during NFC championship week -- he can blow the big horn at the beginning of the game

[Dantes929]

 

I am very distrustful of low K rate pitchers like Cobb's 2017 season. If you are buying then you are expecting him to bounce back peripherally to his pre-TJ stats. That may or may not happen. The same is true of Lynn with regards to lowering his walk rates. 

Darvish on the other hand struck out 10K/9 with some upside for more. And the upside that I speak of are the 13/14 seasons where he cracked a <3.00 ERA and <3.00 xFIP. Nobody expects that to happen but I consider last year as a reasonable expectation with potential (somewhere in between) for more.

 

Unlike Darvish, Cobb/Lynn didn't have good peripherals last season (4.25ish and 4.75ish). If Cobb/Lynn don't improve and their ERA slides down to their FIP/xFIP then they are a #4/5 pitcher on a good team. I don't even see them as remotely comparable pitchers.

 

I would spend 2x on Darvish due to the separation in potential outcomes. The Twins need potential 1/2 pitchers and not 3/4 pitchers that may not even be able to stay in the rotation for the length of their contracts. With that being said I would sign either Lynn or Cobb if they drop down to the 50M range. At the 75M level, I don't consider either and look elsewhere.

I also agree with amgt about sign Darvish and then trade for Archer/Cole to really put together a top rotation.

Decent analysis on Cobb here.   https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/12/16764788/alex-cobb-cubs-free-agent-starting-pitching-mlb-sign-contract-rumors-hot-stove

I saw another article about how he gave up on his best pitch which was the splitter changeup because he didn't have the same feel for it but it might come back the farther removed from surgery.   No sure thing but a shorter contract for less money with possibly upside if he gets that feel back.    His numbers were also in the toughest division, IMO.    He was my target from the get go and if they had gone after him the same way they went after Castro last year they might have gotten him for less money than what is now considered the market.   I would prefer 4 years to Cobb for less money per year vs 6 years to Darvish but time will tell.

[ToddlerHarmon]

This is an opportunity for Falvine to demonstrate big-picture thinking.

 

It is correct that in 2021, paying Darvish $30M while trying to retain Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Rosario will probably break the annual 50% revenue rule-of-thumb the Pohlads like.

 

However, I'm hoping they pitch to the Pohlads that some years are just going to cost more, and that investments have to spike to maintain a fan base, build future revenue, and remain a desirable destination for big name free agents.

 

So yes, a "market" contract for Darvish will give you tight years, and it will probably result in overpaying the last couple of years.  But if it buys you deep playoff runs, sold out stadiums, a better TV deal, the loyalty of young players who want to win, and the occasional signing of ring-chasing veterans, then it more than pays off.

 

In other words, the wisdom of the contract isn't whether it pays off in one player's performance in any given year.  It is how it pays off over a long stretch, from a lot of angles.

[howieramone2]

 

I believe Flavine can't be as lackadaisical as they appear to be, so they must be following some incomprehensible master-plan that ends in Darvish (or some other good pitcher) being a Twin.  

 

Right???

Please?

Last I saw, 31 moves have been made so far in free agency, 3 by the Twins. They took starting pitching 3,4, and 5 in the draft. At the deadline they added 4 arms. The 3 moves they have made in free agency were for pitching. Nothing is lackadasical, nor incomprehensible.

Edited January 9, 2018 by howieramone2

[howieramone2]

 

You had me until you said "market deal". Perhaps I am jaded by years of MN sports history, but when one lists the Twins, Astros, and Cubs in the hunt, it doesn't seem a market deal will suffice.

The Astros have definitely become the flavor of the month, but they must be getting close to being tapped out. I would never mention them in the same breath as the Cubbies, Yankees, etc.

Edited January 9, 2018 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would much rather see the Twins get an ace via trade. Go get Archer or Cole for less money. In the next two years the club is going to see a log jam of prospects ready to graduate to the Twins in the middle infield and in the middle or at the back end of the rotation.

 

We all love prospects and cringe at losing players we've seen develop through the minors, but a progressive-thinking, winning organization has to see minor league development as a tool to not only supplement the big league roster, but to acquire talent outside the organization.

But, you're not going to get an ace (certainly not 4 affordable years of Archer) by dealing Gordon or Polanco plus back end rotation prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last I saw, 31 moves have been made so far in free agency, 3 by the Twins. They took starting pitching 3,4, and 5 in the draft. At the deadline they added 4 arms. The 3 moves they have made in free agency were for pitching. Nothing is lackadasical, nor incomprehensible.

The comment was about a "good pitcher" and presumably a starter, since the thread topic is Darvish. Despite the quantity of moves you reference, the Twins have not yet added a good starting pitcher for 2018. At best, it seems like they have added some backend competition, but even that so far is basically just Enns, and maybe Littell (although he has yet to appear in AAA, so he's probably not on the radar until the latter part of 2018).

[jkcarew]

"market deal" will be north of 6-yrs / $200M, right?  Greinke got more than that two years ago heading into his 32-yo season.  He got 6/206+.  And that was to a mid-market club.  Seems there are sufficient players in the market to at least realize that.  My guess (regardless of where anyone might fall on a technical Greinke/Darvish comparison) is that this is where Darvish's agents put the floor.

 

I see very little change of this happening for the Twins, and at that cost, I'm not sure I'd be upset if it doesn't.

[bird]

 

The comment was about a "good pitcher" and presumably a starter, since the thread topic is Darvish. Despite the quantity of moves you reference, the Twins have not yet added a good starting pitcher for 2018. At best, it seems like they have added some backend competition, but even that so far is basically just Enns, and maybe Littell (although he has yet to appear in AAA, so he's probably not on the radar until the latter part of 2018).

 

 

The comment was refuting any depiction of Falvine as being lackadaisical and having an incomprehensible strategy. We don't know everything that's being done behind the scenes and we don't have a clear picture of what they're thinking. For all we know, they have a completely comprehensible strategy and are accomplishing the necessary legwork towards acquiring that "good pitcher" and it just hasn't happened yet. There's absolutely no evidence suggesting they're on holiday, as one commenter wondered, or that they are operating with a convoluted action plan. I still have a good feeling that we're going to hear news about the acquisition of a front-line starter, through FA or trade.

Edited January 9, 2018 by birdwatcher

[jimmer]

There are only a handful of true aces in all of baseball. Verlander, Scherzer, Bumgarner. An argument could be made for one or two others.

um, KERSHAW? Sale? Kluber?

 

Also, pitcher win totals shouldnt be the stat we are looking at when determining their value. On top of that, most FA players decline at the end of their FA contracts. Saying an FA wont be worth his yearly salary in the 5th and 6th year isnt particularly an unknown factor. Question is, how much will he be worth than his salary in the early years and will he be a key factor in the team taking the next step?

 

Im also not sure we should sign Darvish. I worry about his health, myself. He has pitched 200 or more innings in one season. But he does give a quality 160-180 innings. I wouldn't go over 6/140 for him.

Edited January 9, 2018 by jimmer

[jimmer]

???

 

..... because I saw him pitch in the last one? and one could say that the high priced rental, and sticking with him, cost the Dodgers the World Series. You must have watched, no?

so based on the WS games? Pitchers have bad games. He did awesome in NLDS and NLCS. Back in the offseason after '91, the Blue Jays probably said 'Wow, we need Jack Morris for the W Series. Lets get him' although they won the W Series,it certainly wasnt due to Morris' W Series performance, or his ALCS performance for that matter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

to comment...

 

I think the Twins are very serious about Darvish. In that, I agree with Nick.

 

I'm certain that the big bidders aren't in the market this offseason, which is why the FA market has been sooooooooooooooooooooo cold.

 

I'm not certain that Darvish is very serious about the Twins. I do think that Darvish's agent is smart enough to make sure that the Twins are in it to the end, if for no other reason than to maximize the return, but it would be nice to hear something. Usually by now, the top FA SPs are all signed and we are looking at the scraps. It's not so much this season, so who knows how it shakes out.

[adorduan]

 

???

 

..... because I saw him pitch in the last one? and one could say that the high priced rental, and sticking with him, cost the Dodgers the World Series. You must have watched, no?

To quote a financial tag, "past performance does not guarantee future results".

[nicksaviking]

 

to comment...

 

I think the Twins are very serious about Darvish. In that, I agree with Nick.

 

I'm certain that the big bidders aren't in the market this offseason, which is why the FA market has been sooooooooooooooooooooo cold.

 

I'm not certain that Darvish is very serious about the Twins. I do think that Darvish's agent is smart enough to make sure that the Twins are in it to the end, if for no other reason than to maximize the return, but it would be nice to hear something. Usually by now, the top FA SPs are all signed and we are looking at the scraps. It's not so much this season, so who knows how it shakes out.

 

I think if Darvish and his agent were only in it to pump up the other teams they would have had a highly publicized meeting with the Twins to leverage the other clubs.

 

As counter-intuitive as it might sound, to me it looks like it's been the opposite, meetings with other teams may be used to leverage the Twins.

 

Honestly my optimism is still quite modest but I'll admit it may present itself as more grand as I'm out of practice using it.

[Twodogs]

 

Call it a hot take. I'm fine with that. It's been cold out, and the frozen state of affairs this offseason is only deepening the chill.

But I've become convinced that the Twins are destined to sign Yu Darvish. And while it's very possible that my desperation for something – anything – to happen this winter is driving me into delirium, I really don't think it's a totally baseless prognostication.

When hundreds of Minnesota baseball diehards congregate at the Winter Meltdown in a couple of weeks, I think we'll all be celebrating the biggest free agency splash in Twins franchise history.What leads me to this conclusion? Well, part of it is wishful thinking, I'll admit. Darvish would be an awesome fit on the Twins and would lift them to serious championship contender status almost instantly. I badly want to see it, so long as the price makes any sense.

But there are also plenty of legitimate indications that this could very realistically go down. I'll lay out the two biggest ones, and you can add your own (or dispute mine) in the comments.

Only Eyes For Yu
The Twins have been openly connected to Darvish throughout the offseason, and GM Thad Levine hasn't been shy about his pursuit. But there've been few other substantive rumors tying Minnesota to any other prominent free agents. A rumbling of trade buzz here and there, sure, but despite their outward interest in adding a frontline starter, the Twins have been conspicuously silent in relation to other free agent starters like Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn.

Meanwhile, they've been operating as a team that's gearing up for a big spend. Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke were both low-dollar one year commitments. The Twins have added around $7 million in salary by signing them, but offset part of it by shedding ByungHo Park's contract.

So right now they are treading water below $100 million in committed payroll, at a time where they're making their contention push in earnest.

Darvish in No Hurry
Last week it was reported that Darvish's and his reps had yet to meet with the Twins front office, and that the two sides "don't see it as necessary -- not yet anyway."

Many took this as a sign the Twins aren't really in the running for Darvish. We're headlong into January now and there hasn't even been a meeting? Sounds unpromising.

But, in my irrationally and unfoundedly optimistic state, I'm clinging to the hypothetical premise I laid out in the forums here at Twins Daily last month:

"Here's what is playing out right now – from my hopeful view:

Levine has a good enough relationship with Darvish and his agent that the two sides have kept an open line of communication. Thad signaled early on that his interest was very serious, and Darvish's camp indicated that the interest was mutual.

So over the past couple of weeks, Darvish has been meeting with other legit suitors to hear their pitches and receive their offers. Now he'll be able to go into a meeting with the Twins knowing full well what else is out there, and what his options are. Meanwhile, Levine will know exactly what kind of bids he's up against.

No matter how you look at it, I think Minnesota meeting with Darvish later in the process rather than earlier almost has to be viewed as a good thing... as long as it actually happens."

It was a shot in the dark at the time, but nothing that's happened since has made it feel any less plausible.

Darvish has met with the Cubs. He's met with the Astros. Neither of those engagements resulted in remotely immediate action, and the Yankees seem to be distantly waiting for the righty's price to drop.

The Twins are said to be prepared to offer a "market deal" to Darvish. And as it happens, through all of his courting elsewhere, the realities of his market have become pretty much solidified.

It's clear that Minnesota is at least interested in a meeting with Darvish. And while jaded Twins fans love to opt toward the ol' "he's just not that into you" quip, it's kinda silly to think he'd actually be opposed to linking up, given that he evidently hasn't been blown away by any other suitors.

It's almost as though Darvish is biding his time, content in the knowledge that his destination is set, and a meeting is merely a formality.

What say you?

Click here to view the article

Well, whether or not its true or if this analysis holds true.  It at least makes me feel better.

 

Thanks Nick

[luckylager]

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think if Darvish and his agent were only in it to pump up the other teams they would have had a highly publicized meeting with the Twins to leverage the other clubs.

 

As counter-intuitive as it might sound, to me it looks like it's been the opposite, meetings with other teams may be used to leverage the Twins.

 

I don't think modern MLB front offices are going to be influenced by blatant "pumping up" attempts. There are some nuanced cases where it could work along the margins, but if everyone and his dog knows that a top FA won't be signing with a frugal mid-market team, a meeting accomplishes nothing.

 

I still think the only way Darvish signs here is if we significantly outbid everyone else. All parties involved (Twins, Darvish, other clubs) know that's unlikely.

[Drew]

 

It would be great to sign Darvish. But if he does sign, and helps take the Twins to a World Series, he will have to pitch in said Series, and I can't say I look forward to that.

 

 

You wouldn't look forward to the Twins in the World Series?

 

Cody Bellinger had an OPS of .565 and struckout over 60% of his World Series ABs

Mark Lemke had an OPS of 1.170 in his first World Series

 

Neither of those stat lines tell us anything about those players other than how they did in a microscopic sample size. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Falvey and Levine seem like logical men. It seems completely logical to me, that if you sign Darvish, you trade for Archer (unless the asking price is just completely over the top). Signing Darvish opens the door and with a little prospect luck could move you toward WS contention. Doing both flings that door wide open and gives you a legit 4 year window of WS contention.

The reported demand from the Pirates for 2 years of Cole seemed reasonable to me (Gordon, Granite, and Jay). If not 4 years of Archer at a much higher price, why not 2 years of Cole? Maybe he likes to fish for Pike.

[h2oface]

 

so based on the WS games? Pitchers have bad games. He did awesome in NLDS and NLCS. Back in the offseason after '91, the Blue Jays probably said 'Wow, we need Jack Morris for the W Series. Lets get him' although they won the W Series,it certainly wasnt due to Morris' W Series performance, or his ALCS performance for that matter.

 

Yup. Like it or not, when the light is all shining on you..... it is unforgettable. I can repeat all the small sample dogma, sure, but that is obvious. The pitch tipping well documented, according to the Astros, thank you. Could happen to anyone. Selective reading. I also said I hope they sign Darvish. And if they do, they will regret it before the end of the contract. Pragmatist. Not everyone can be a Bumgarner when it is time to take the biggest stage.

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

If they can sign him with Johnny Cueto/Jordan Zimmerman $, I would have no problem with it.  If he is looking for David Price/Zack Greinke $, forget about it, because that contract will end up being what Mauer's (and Hughes's) is now...

[Deduno Abides]

Darvish is going to be extremely rich wherever he goes. I believe he is also looking for the place where he thinks he’ll have the best relationships.

[Brandon Warne]

 

If they can sign him with Johnny Cueto/Jordan Zimmerman $, I would have no problem with it.  If he is looking for David Price/Zack Greinke $, forget about it, because that contract will end up being what Mauer's (and Hughes's) is now...

 

TF is this tweet? 

 

Edited January 10, 2018 by Brandon Warne

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

TF is this tweet? 

 

 

Proof of a sense of humor?

 

 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

So Darvish hasn't met with the Twins - has he met with all 29 other teams?  How many has he met with?

[amjgt]

The reported demand from the Pirates for 2 years of Cole seemed reasonable to me (Gordon, Granite, and Jay). If not 4 years of Archer at a much higher price, why not 2 years of Cole? Maybe he likes to fish for Pike.

I’d rather pay a much higher price for 4 years of Archer.

[Brandon Warne]

 

The reported demand from the Pirates for 2 years of Cole seemed reasonable to me (Gordon, Granite, and Jay). If not 4 years of Archer at a much higher price, why not 2 years of Cole? Maybe he likes to fish for Pike.

 

This was not reported. It was an unsubstantiated rumor.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd feel better about it if they, you know, talked to each other about it maybe, possibly happening.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd feel better about it if they, you know, talked to each other about it maybe, possibly happening.

 

This is more like a high school dating relationship...

 

Hey, can you tell Yu that someone likes him... just don't say who...

[nytwinsfan]

 

Thrylos, can you tell us more about who your source is (works for the Twins, etc.?). How credible is this person?