Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets: Part 4 (1-5)

[Tomj14]

 

First of all, I love Joe Mauer, and he redeemed himself in a big way last year. I'm glad to have him in the lineup. No doubt about that. HOWEVER, I look at it this way: if you could dump him and his $23M salary this year and replace it with, say, Carlos Santana + a $3M reliever, you'd do that 10 out of 10 times, no? Or what if you could sign another solid slugging 1B for a fraction of Santana's price, and then have even more to spend elsewhere?

 

 

Mauer has some uncommon skills -- he's among the best defenders and most disciplined hitters at his position -- but the full package is pretty replaceable. Yes, I'd say more so than Kirilloff, May, Duffey, etc.

I don't want three years of Santana and RP in exchange for 1 year of Mauer, but your second option I really like.

 

Honest question what has May and Duffey done that makes them difficult to replace? They both seem exactly like players that are fairly easy to replace? To me a few of our prospects would bring a bigger return than them.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't want three years of Santana and RP in exchange for 1 year of Mauer, but your second option I really like.

 

Honest question what has May and Duffey done that makes them difficult to replace? They both seem exactly like players that are fairly easy to replace? To me a few of our prospects would bring a bigger return than them.

But can you replace them for equal salary as they make now? I believe that's league minimum (roughly) for both.

Likely not.

This article regards value, not just production.

[Tomj14]

 

But can you replace them for equal salary as they make now? I believe that's league minimum (roughly) for both.
Likely not.
This article regards value, not just production.

I think the answer is yes, Rogers, Hildenberger and Busenitz proved that and possibly a few more.

Also I was thinking this list was about trade value, IMO we could get more in return for a half dozen of our prospects not listed than May and Duffey.

[slash129]

 

I think the answer is yes, Rogers, Hildenberger and Busenitz proved that and possibly a few more.

Also I was thinking this list was about trade value, IMO we could get more in return for a half dozen of our prospects not listed than May and Duffey.

 

Nick stated that it was a combination of value to the team for ongoing success and possibly as a trade chip.  The relief pitchers in question are already performing at the major league level, so they are somewhat of a known as far as ongoing success goes. They might not hold the trade value of a top 10 org prospect, but those prospects are still prospects.  It's hard to project Rooker for the ongoing success side when he could pull a Paul Russo and never get there. On the other hand, Mauer gets a 0 in the contract and trade chip fields of the calculation, so that offsets his current value as hitter, defender, veteran presence and twilighting face of the franchise.

[nicksaviking]

 

Rooker and Enlow might have made the top 20 for me.  They would certainly  have more trade value in my mind than a Duffey at this time.

 

I agree, Duffey started off hot, but by the end of the season he was easily the weakest link in the bullpen. I'm hopeful after a full offseason of gearing up for the pen instead of pensively hoping for a rotation spot he'll be a better reliever.

 

But I don't know what kind of value he has at the moment. I'd also think due to the position scarcity and his production at AAA that Mitch Garver might have quite a bit of value.

[Tomj14]

 

Nick stated that it was a combination of value to the team for ongoing success and possibly as a trade chip. 

I understand this is subjective, but if you go off of those two things than Mauer is a huge asset, others have posted his AVG, OBP and defense (tied for 4th in WAR in the American league first basemen based on ESPN). Plus 23 million will be coming off the books next year.

IMO two league average at best relief pitchers (hope I am wrong) with little to no trade value isn't a key to ongoing success for the Twins. Rooker, Thorpe and Baddoo are more important to the Twins ongoing success, either as a trade chip or contributor to the team

Not trying to disrespect Nick this was a great article and hard to do

[TNTwinsFan]

Rooker? Rooker? Rooker? **sigh**

 

Rooker is going to blow the doors off when he reaches MLB. Of course, I'll eat crow if he hits a wall at AA (which I will have to attend some of the games to make sure I see him in person.) But, I just don't think it happens. He'll be challenged at each level for about a month, then he'll figure it out and take off. He's no ABW II.

[Darius]

I think Berrios is worth more than Lewis, currently. Young starting pitcher, with elite stuff and has shown elite results in the MLB for stretches, and in the high minors for years vs an 18-year old unknown who may or may not stick at short stop? Is there a GM in their right mind who would take Lewis if given the choice between the two today for nothing?

 

Think of it this way, if there were an expansion draft tomorrow, and the team had its choice of Lewis and Berrios, they'd take Berrios every time.

 

I can't think of any scenario where a team would give up Berrios straight up for Lewis. Maybe the Marlins, because their FO makes ridiculous moves all the time.

[bobs]

  Love the list.  I'll throw a little caveat into the statement on Sano "having the stuff superstars and MVPs are made of".  For me, the jury is still out on that...and that was before the off field stuff.  He certainly has the physical tools, but that jovial, laid back, fun-loving approach may be what prevents him from ever being the player he could have been.  The greats, and I mean the real greats of recent past, the Griffeys, the Ripkens, the Thomes all knew when it was time to work and when it was time to play, and that there was indeed a difference.  If Miguel figures that out, the sky is the limit.  If not, he's Mark Reynolds Part 2.

[bobs]

 

Rooker? Rooker? Rooker? **sigh**

 

Rooker is going to blow the doors off when he reaches MLB. Of course, I'll eat crow if he hits a wall at AA (which I will have to attend some of the games to make sure I see him in person.) But, I just don't think it happens. He'll be challenged at each level for about a month, then he'll figure it out and take off. He's no ABW II.

To me, he's the one guy possibly missing here.  A year from now, that should change.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I think Berrios is worth more than Lewis, currently. Young starting pitcher, with elite stuff and has shown elite results in the MLB for stretches, and in the high minors for years vs an 18-year old unknown who may or may not stick at short stop? Is there a GM in their right mind who would take Lewis if given the choice between the two today for nothing?

Think of it this way, if there were an expansion draft tomorrow, and the team had its choice of Lewis and Berrios, they'd take Berrios every time.

I can't think of any scenario where a team would give up Berrios straight up for Lewis. Maybe the Marlins, because their FO makes ridiculous moves all the time.

 

I disagree, but it's real close.

 

Lewis has more years available than Berrios.  That's the biggest difference.

[h2oface]

First of all, thanks for all the mansplaining, or would it be fansplaining, here? -  about Mauer's current contract and stats, and all the great recaps of how trades work these days after my first Mauer comment. I enjoyed the great summaries.       I truly did. I come at some things as common Twins' fan knowledge - like a contract and terms that has already been discussed ump-thousand times - and his performance last year and throughout his career - and of course, that was considered in developing the comment that I was surprised that Mauer didn't even break this list at #20. (and now see he wouldn't have even made 25!).

 

I usually get it the first time, and surely by the 10th time........ the info that becomes common knowledge here. Sometimes opinions are like faith. You don't need facts and reality to have one, especially as twisted as value has become these days. In my opinion, way way too much value is put on prospects.... most that never see the show, but make a lot of lists.

 

"20 most valuable Minnesota Twins assets. Looking beyond performance to account for age, contract, and future impact, the idea is to determine which players will be most vital to the team's ongoing success (or, most useful as trade chips)."

 

If we are just talking trade chips, I misunderstand the mission statement. Maybe I am thinking too much about the short term future of 2018 as most vital and ongoing success. It is a fun excercise, though, and who knows. Time will tell. Or not.

Edited January 4, 2018 by h2oface

[Vanimal46]

Good list overall. I agree with the top 5 as Nick sees it. I'm also surprised Mauer didn't make the cut as others are. In my personal rankings, I would leave Duffey and May off the list. Low leverage middle relievers are a dime a dozen, and May is too injury prone. I'd put Mauer, and probably Baddoo on the list in their place. Baddoo is a borderline top 100 prospect this winter. Another positive season from him and he'll be the talk of this website.

[Kwak]

 

I disagree, but it's real close.

 

Lewis has more years available than Berrios.  That's the biggest difference.

No. The biggest difference is that Berrios has made the majors, failed and then succeeded. Lewis reached what used to be termed "B" level baseball-period.

[caninatl04]

 

I understand that Mauer only has 1 year left on his contract, but it is amazing, to me, that he doesn't even make it to #20 in this list of the club's most valuable assets. Less valuable than Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Adalberto Mejia, or Alex Kirilloff, eh? I'm not buying. If he has virtually minimal value as an asset, why even keep him in the lineup? 

I know this is sacrilegious, but Mauer and his left handed bat would work well in Yankee pinstripes.  Recall how many homers he hit into the Metrodome's Glad Bag?  That would play with Yankee stadium's what 150' right field foul line.

 

It would also work since the Yankees could offer Joe a contract that wouldn't be a 75% reduction.  And, with all that HR power in their lineup, Joe's OBP might play. 

 

But aside from them, I can't see any team wanting zero power at 1B.

[h2oface]

 

I know this is sacrilegious, but Mauer and his left handed bat would work well in Yankee pinstripes.  Recall how many homers he hit into the Metrodome's Glad Bag?  That would play with Yankee stadium's what 150' right field foul line.

 

It would also work since the Yankees could offer Joe a contract that wouldn't be a 75% reduction.  And, with all that HR power in their lineup, Joe's OBP might play. 

 

But aside from them, I can't see any team wanting zero power at 1B.

 

Except....... that Mauer has never been able to make the transition to a pull hitter! The huge guy with the "perfect" inside out swing, has never been able to adjust successfully and evolve, like so many other hitters. Meanwhile, we watch smaller guys like Dozier and Rosario launch them out. And no, I don't remember how many (non)homers he hit into the right field glad bag. I remember how many homers that crawled over the left center fence in 2009, and some that still do. He is what he is, and Boston, and banging all those left field drives off the green monster for doubles makes a lot more sense to me than Yankee Stadium. It is a shame that he couldn't adjust, and become more than he was. He is so big. It has always amazed me that he didn't become a slugger with age.

[Nick Nelson]

 

"20 most valuable Minnesota Twins assets. Looking beyond performance to account for age, contract, and future impact, the idea is to determine which players will be most vital to the team's ongoing success (or, most useful as trade chips)."

 

If we are just talking trade chips, I misunderstand the mission statement. Maybe I am thinking too much about the short term future of 2018 as most vital and ongoing success. It is a fun excercise, though, and who knows. Time will tell. Or not.

Question for you: If the Twins suddenly didn't have Mauer available to them, how much worse off are they? Move Sano to first, start Escobar at 3rd, find a DH or just use Grossman. And then you've got an extra 23 mil to spend elsewhere. 

 

He's a fine player but he's just not indispensable to the franchise in any way at this point.

 

 

Low leverage middle relievers are a dime a dozen, and May is too injury prone.

? The UCL tear was literally May's first arm injury in his career. 

[Tomj14]

 

Question for you: If the Twins suddenly didn't have Mauer available to them, how much worse off are they? Move Sano to first, start Escobar at 3rd, find a DH or just use Grossman. And then you've got an extra 23 mil to spend elsewhere. 

 

He's a fine player but he's just not indispensable to the franchise in any way at this point.

 

 

? The UCL tear was literally May's first arm injury in his career. 

They would lose a guy that gets OBP, plays great defense, sees a lot of pitchers, and a really good utility guy (by playing Escobar full time). You would be moving Sano for the third time in 3 years. You would gain quite a bit as well no denying that; maybe not directly on the field but for sure roster and salary flexibility.

You lose Duffey or May and you lose a guy that didn't pitch last year and is no more than a hope this year and the 4th right hander out of the bullpen.

 

Doesn't May have a history with back issues?

[Vanimal46]

? The UCL tear was literally May's first arm injury in his career.

Did Will Smith erase your memories of 2016 like "Men in Black"?

 

He missed most of May, then was shut down for the season on August 6th because of his back issues.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Did Will Smith erase your memories of 2016 like "Men in Black"?

He missed most of May, then was shut down for the season on August 6th because of his back issues.

Eh, I don't really hold it against a guy when he experiences those kinds of issues while operating in a completely unfamiliar role that his body isn't trained for. And those back issues were isolated to 2016 so to me it doesn't qualify him as "injury prone." His health record prior to that season was quite phenomenal.

 

 

You lose Duffey or May and you lose a guy that didn't pitch last year and is no more than a hope this year and the 4th right hander out of the bullpen.

But I'm not assessing based on last year, I'm assessing based on their value to the franchise going forward. I realize this requires a good bit of subjectivity, and I get why people disagree based on 2017 outcomes, but Duffey and May are both highly capable arms under control for 3-4 more years. I think they'll both be big contributors to the staff during that span while Mauer is (hopefully) a marginal 2018 upgrade over what they'd otherwise run out at first base for 2018, and he also occupies about a quarter of their payroll. 

[Vanimal46]

Eh, I don't really hold it against a guy when he experiences those kinds of issues while operating in a completely unfamiliar role that his body isn't trained for. And those back issues were isolated to 2016 so to me it doesn't qualify him as "injury prone." His health record prior to that season was quite phenomenal.

 

There's plenty of examples throughout baseball where starters convert to relief without any health issues.

 

I agree prior to the last 2 seasons he was durable and healthy.

 

I still consider him injury prone missing 3 months and pitching ineffectively for 3 months in 2016. Plus all of 2017/part of 2018.

 

We can disagree and move on.

[Tomj14]

 

But I'm not assessing based on last year, I'm assessing based on their value to the franchise going forward. I realize this requires a good bit of subjectivity, and I get why people disagree based on 2017 outcomes, but Duffey and May are both highly capable arms under control for 3-4 more years. I think they'll both be big contributors to the staff during that span while Mauer is (hopefully) a marginal 2018 upgrade over what they'd otherwise run out at first base for 2018, and he also occupies about a quarter of their payroll. 

That fair and I am not trying argue, so based on that where does Pressly fit? His is a bit older and we have him for a year less I think, but it seems he has proven more than either of those two?  I wonder if the Twins could only keep Duffey for Busentiz who would they take? I respect your opinion but when I think assets I think if would I rather have player A this year and going forward than Player B. Example I would take Littell and Thorpe going forward over Duffey, which IMO means they are better assets. Again love reading your stuff.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Question for you: If the Twins suddenly didn't have Mauer available to them, how much worse off are they? Move Sano to first, start Escobar at 3rd, find a DH or just use Grossman. And then you've got an extra 23 mil to spend elsewhere. 

 

He's a fine player but he's just not indispensable to the franchise in any way at this point.

 

 

Other than maybe Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, do we have anyone who's "Indispensable"? I would not argue that Mauer is indispensable, but I respectfully disagree with your premise; They would be much worse off without Mauer. He's not indispensable, but he is important - especially for his defense and his on-base skills.  

 

Sano does not have the defensive skills at 1B that Mauer has. He's fine at 3B, but not at 1B. Mauer digs balls out of the dirt and reaches high for balls thrown by other infielders. He makes Dozier, Polanco and Sano much better, because they know he will get their throws. 

 

On other teams, how many throws (that Mauer gets now) go down as throwing errors because the !B could not dig it out of the dirt? 

 

And who's going to replace his on-base ability, and his ability to hit with 2 strikes? 

 

Mauer may not be indispensable, but he's very important to the Twins. Has he been overpaid during his contract? Sure. But i'd be willing (if I were the Twins GM) to offer him three or four more years at $10-$12 million a year. He brings a lot of value to this team.

Edited January 4, 2018 by Lee-The-Twins-Fan

[laloesch]

That fair and I am not trying argue, so based on that where does Pressly fit? His is a bit older and we have him for a year less I think, but it seems he has proven more than either of those two?  I wonder if the Twins could only keep Duffey for Busentiz who would they take? I respect your opinion but when I think assets I think if would I rather have player A this year and going forward than Player B. Example I would take Littell and Thorpe going forward over Duffey, which IMO means they are better assets. Again love reading your stuff.

 

Was waiting for someone to post this. I think Thorpe and Littell deserve an honorable mention. Both pitched well in 2017.

[Nick Nelson]

 

That fair and I am not trying argue, so based on that where does Pressly fit? His is a bit older and we have him for a year less I think, but it seems he has proven more than either of those two?  I wonder if the Twins could only keep Duffey for Busentiz who would they take? I respect your opinion but when I think assets I think if would I rather have player A this year and going forward than Player B. Example I would take Littell and Thorpe going forward over Duffey, which IMO means they are better assets. Again love reading your stuff.

Nothing wrong with those takes. They're very reasonable. I personally don't hold Pressly in quite the same regard as Duffey in terms of realistic upside from the bullpen, and I still view May as a quality starter candidate. Just need to see a little more from Busenitz, Littell and Thorpe although they have solid cases no doubt.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

Other than maybe Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, do we have anyone who's "Indispensable"? I would not argue that Mauer is indispensable, but I respectfully disagree with your premise; They would be much worse off without Mauer. He's not indispensable, but he is important - especially for his defense and his on-base skills.  

In a vacuum, yes. But you on the open market you could acquire a top-tier younger player for Mauer's $23M, and you'd control him for more than one year. These are the primary factors in this evaluation. Mauer plays a position where offense is abundant, and defense is relatively less important, for a restricting price.

 

By no means am I trying to say Joe Mauer is worthless, or not an integral part of the 2018 lineup. This is a big picture type of analysis.