Article: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish?

[jorgenswest]

Interesting take on Darvish and the Twins at Beyond the Box Score

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/1/3/16843352/twins-offseason-free-agency-signings-hot-stove-rumors-yu-darvish-lorenzo-cain-playoffs-wild-card

 

You might note that the author also blogs regularly at Let’s Go Tribe.

[howieramone2]

 

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts.

This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

Our favorite team was in the hunt 2 of the past 3 seasons. If they made no changes whatsoever, they would still be stronger in 2018 than those 3 teams, and we have already made 3 solid moves with all kinds of time left. 

 

We can contend in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, blindfolded with one hand tied behind our back.

[nicksaviking]

 

You don't spent 100M for a game that may or may not occur. Interesting to note. The board was screaming for Berrios to start game 163 in 2015. I don't recall anyone wanting him to start game 163 in 2017.

 

I'd rather have a team that has a chance to win a WS but could also tank due to injuries than to have a team that has a good shot at making the playoffs but has next to no shot at winning a WS.

 

If by contend you mean maybe they make the playoffs, yeah I guess they have a good shot to do that. However that rotation puts them in an awful hole when trying to beat the top dogs to make it to the WS. It isn't close to good enough and Cobb and Lynn won't help in a one game playoff.

 

And for the record, among the starters on the 40-man, I wanted Kyle Gibson to start game 163 last year.

[beckmt]

Plan B.  Sign Arreita or make a trade.  Lynn is not a fit here and Cobb is a #2/#3 type which will not move the needle much.  I preferred Chatwood to any of Lynn or Cobb.  That ship has sailed, so Twins will need to make a good move or just wait with what they have until 2019. 

Grenke might be a good try depending on how many prospects the DBacks want against how much contract the Twins take.  If the Twins take most of the contract will the DBacks only take a couple of lottery tickets.  I would make the call and they wait it out. DBacks have to move soon on Martinez, so they may be motivated to deal.

[KirbyDome89]

 

There are no signs whatsoever that they are ignoring 2018, in favor of 2019. Patience is a virtue.

Their biggest signing is a pitcher who is coming off major arm surgery and is unlikely to see the field until 2019. The wait and see approach is fine at this point, there are still lots of dominoes to fall, but I think even the most patient fans would have to admit this FO hasn't done much the last two offseasons to improve this team for either the long or short term. Like you said, there's still time, but right now the Twins are watching the pack pull away. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Our favorite team was in the hunt 2 of the past 3 seasons. If they made no changes whatsoever, they would still be stronger in 2018 than those 3 teams, and we have already made 3 solid moves with all kinds of time left.

 

We can contend in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, blindfolded with one hand tied behind our back.

this team doesn’t currently have enough pitching to win a 5 game series. Not even close. Pitchers and catchers report in what, 5 weeks? Time is tight to make 2-3 pitching acquisitions. If you’re waiting for the trade deadline it’ll cost a lot more than the Twins can afford.

[darin617]

I don't want anything to do with any of these "top free agent pitchers." Do you really want to sign Yu Darvish to a 6-7 year deal? Then you have Alex Cobb asking for $20M a year?

 

The worst part of the slow winter deals is Scott Boras is pulling all the strings and will get the lower end guys signed first before the big players sign unless the money is completely insane.

[beckmt]

Saw on MLB traderumors the Twins have inquired on Chris Tillman.  Please put this one to bed and say NO!

[jorgenswest]

From 2013-2016 Tillman was very valuable. He averaged 32 starts a year with a solid 4 year ERA in an AL hitter’s park. I would imagine if he hit free agency a year ago he would be seeking 20 million a year for 4-5 years. Given his age, he would have ranked above Lynn and Cobb.

 

One shoulder injury later and he is looking for a make good one year deal. Someone will give him a shot. I hope it works out for him. His poorly timed injury cost him tens of millions.

 

From the Twins perspective an incentive laden one year deal would make sense whether or not the sign Darvish. If I were his agent I would advise he go to a team like the Padres, White Sox or Royals who might be more patient early in the season. They would then hope for a good first half to flip him at the deadline.

[Rhino and Compass]

As a broad, general statement, I think it's folly to invest heavily in free agents, but more palatable to acquire young players, but in this specific instance, there has been so much smoke, so many signals even from the front office, it's almost a self respect thing at this point that I want the Twins to get Darvish. I want to know that Minnesota is a desirable location for a top free agent for my own satisfaction as much as anything

[Richie the Rally Goat]

From 2013-2016 Tillman was very valuable. He averaged 32 starts a year with a solid 4 year ERA in an AL hitter’s park. I would imagine if he hit free agency a year ago he would be seeking 20 million a year for 4-5 years. Given his age, he would have ranked above Lynn and Cobb.

 

One shoulder injury later and he is looking for a make good one year deal. Someone will give him a shot. I hope it works out for him. His poorly timed injury cost him tens of millions.

 

From the Twins perspective an incentive laden one year deal would make sense whether or not the sign Darvish. If I were his agent I would advise he go to a team like the Padres, White Sox or Royals who might be more patient early in the season. They would then hope for a good first half to flip him at the deadline.

Tillman seems to be like the pitcher acquired to round out the rotation after signing Darvish because your tapped out and don’t trust both Mejia and Gibson.

[ashbury]

Tillman seems to be like the pitcher acquired to round out the rotation after signing Darvish because your tapped out and don’t trust both Mejia and Gibson.

I trust both Mejia and Gibson more than I trust Tillman, which is not saying a lot. A Tillman signing would be merely the embodiment of the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract - on the 25% chance that he bounces back to what he once was. Except, that it would take up a 40-man spot and (I assume) a 25-man spot, both of which are currently kind of full. And the ceiling for Tillman hasn't been very high for a long time, unless you're a team with a sturdy bullpen because even his best years lately have been of the "six inning pitcher" variety.

[nicksaviking]

Tillman looks like the kind of guy who could end up having a nice 2nd career out of the pen. 

 

But he's going to get another shot at starting this year, and the Twins already have a half dozen guys who should be fighting for the 5th spot. So maybe next year if he understands going in that he's destined for the pen?

[terrydactyls]

 

Of course it would. I’m guessing that perhaps the FO wants to see what they have currently first. Are there 5 starters among the current ML, AAA and AA squads? If the team is competitive and needs a starter, I could see a mid- season trade.
I guess I’m just suspicious of the Pohlads and whether there is money to sign a front line starter for 2018.

 

In the cold and snow of Maine, I've had time to think deeply and seriously about Twins pitching.  #SAD!!!  But to be serious, to me there is just one question for the front office this summer:  How do you evaluate your top five minor league pitchers.  If the answer is three or more will be on the Twins by 2019, then don't pursue any free agent starters.  If only two are certain to make the Twins, go after Darvish/Arrietta (who ever the value as the top free agent).  If you think one or none will make it, then forget the top guys and go after two or three next level free agents.

[FunnyPenguin]

The title of this thread should be "What happens WHEN the Twins can't sign Yu Darvish"

[caninatl04]

Does ANYONE have ANY information on when Darvish might make his decision? I believe that things will move quickly for some of the names mentioned above once Darvish decides.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does ANYONE have ANY information on when Darvish might make his decision?

If Darvish makes his decision while in Japan, and then crosses the International Date Line, we might find out yesterday!

[laloesch]

 

If the Twins cannot sign Darvish, I would ignore the next level (Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn) as all three would mean losing a second round draft pick. 

 

I'd set my sights on Jason Vargas. A lefty, with the Royals last year, he won 18 games, even though his ERA was above 4.00.  The Royals paid him $32 m over 4 years; entering his age 35 season, we could get him maybe for three years for $18 m?

 

Not as big a splash as landing Darvish, but it would help. The Twins should want a top pitcher like Darvish, but if they cannot land him, they should keep looking. There are other good fish in the MLB sea.

 

i think losing the pick for Lynn would be an okay tradeoff.  Cobb meh not so much.