Article: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish?

[darin617]

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.

 

 

[ashbury]

Also, rumor has it Darvish was tipping his pitches in the world series that the Astros picked up on.

He probably wishes he had tipped his catcher onto this, since he wasn't hitting his spots with his breaking pitches.

[TwinsTerritory]

If we can't sign Darvish, we've all heard a lot about what it would take to get Archer.  I'm curious what the asking price would be for Cole and McCutchen.  Would the price be less than Archer?  How much less?  How much should we be willing to give up for 1 year of McCutchen and 2 years of Cole?

 

I'll throw out an idea and you can all rip me to shreds!

 

Max Kepler, Wander Javier, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart for McCutchen and Cole

[Vanimal46]

He probably wishes he had tipped his catcher onto this, since he wasn't hitting his spots with his breaking pitches.

That too. But him tipping his pitches was a real thing. It's easier to hit a breaking pitch that missed the spot when you know it's coming...

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/245190368-yu-darvish-finds-pitch-tipping-flaw-on-video.amp.html

 

https://deadspin.com/report-yu-darvish-tipped-his-pitches-in-the-world-seri-1821216289

[kellyvance]

 

If the Twins cannot sign Darvish, I would ignore the next level (Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn) as all three would mean losing a second round draft pick. 

 

I'd set my sights on Jason Vargas. A lefty, with the Royals last year, he won 18 games, even though his ERA was above 4.00.  The Royals paid him $32 m over 4 years; entering his age 35 season, we could get him maybe for three years for $18 m?

 

Not as big a splash as landing Darvish, but it would help. The Twins should want a top pitcher like Darvish, but if they cannot land him, they should keep looking. There are other good fish in the MLB sea.

I like Vargas too. If they can get a guy who still has some ceiling I don't mind getting guys that are still growing into their games. 

[h2oface]

 

By that logic, do you ever sign a free agent?

 

Sure. Case by case. Lynn is pretty affordable, just a relatively long commitment. In this case, the Cards would rather take their chances on the cheap up and comers, than Lynn, who they know the best of any team and FO. Sometimes the player just doesn't want to play for the team anymore, and/or they want to play for the highest dollar, regardless of the team. Like Torii Hunter, perhaps. Sometimes, you just let a Plouffe or a Pelfrey go........ for good reason. My gut says that is the case with Lynn.

 

And then there are the mistakes.... like David Ortiz. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.

Almost no one throws that many anymore

[darin617]

 

Almost no one throws that many anymore

 

That is why you don't give Darvish ace money.  To be honest I don't think I would would want any of the top 4 free agent pitchers for more than 2 seasons. Which none would ever sign for.

[DaveW]

If we can't sign Darvish, we've all heard a lot about what it would take to get Archer. I'm curious what the asking price would be for Cole and McCutchen. Would the price be less than Archer? How much less? How much should we be willing to give up for 1 year of McCutchen and 2 years of Cole?

 

I'll throw out an idea and you can all rip me to shreds!

 

Max Kepler, Wander Javier, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart for McCutchen and Cole

Why would the pirates go for that deal at all?

 

Kepler looks to be a solid young corner OF, but isn’t exactly an all star or even a guy teams can pencil in every day due to struggles against LHP ....to be clear, I think Kepler eventually reaches his peak and becomes a borderline all star player during his prime, but any other team is gonna view him on his results, floor etc as well.

 

Jay, Stewart, Javier aren’t ‘bad’ prospects, but none of them are very great either.

 

Let’s put it this way, if the Twins were to trade a Cole and McCutchen and we got that package back, we would be pretty damn pissed I imagine.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not sure Yu Darvish is the answer to the Twins future. He has never thrown over 200 innings since 2013. And over 2127 innings in his professional career.

 

All I'm concerned about is him being capable of pitching game 163 and beyond. How would Cobb or Lynn even contribute in a one game playoff? They probably don't start over Berrios or Santana.

[mazeville]

1. Sign Darvish.

2. Trade for Chris Archer.

3. Sign Alex Cobb.

 

Twins should do two of those three. They can afford it. We deserve it.

 

As for the offseason so far, I'm fine with the Twins moving slow. Few free agents have signed contracts, and offseasons should be judged as a whole, not based on what they did through Dec. 27. 

[TwinsTerritory]

 

Why would the pirates go for that deal at all?

Kepler looks to be a solid young corner OF, but isn’t exactly an all star or even a guy teams can pencil in every day due to struggles against LHP ....to be clear, I think Kepler eventually reaches his peak and becomes a borderline all star player during his prime, but any other team is gonna view him on his results, floor etc as well.

Jay, Stewart, Javier aren’t ‘bad’ prospects, but none of them are very great either.

Let’s put it this way, if the Twins were to trade a Cole and McCutchen and we got that package back, we would be pretty damn pissed I imagine.

I don't know that they would go for that, I just wanted to throw something out there as a starting point.  I think I may value Javier a little more than you do.  I see him as a borderline top 100 prospect.  

 

Maybe the better question is, what is McCutcheon worth to Pittsburgh?  He has one year on his deal.  If he has another mediocre year like 2016, his value is pretty low and Pittsburgh probably lets him walk at the end of the year.  Or he has a decent year like 2017 and they can't afford to resign him unless he takes a "hometown discount".

 

In a different post, I mentioned taking back Span in an Archer trade as a way to maybe save Tampa some money and lessen the prospect load heading to the Rays.  In this case, I'd be willing to increase the prospects going to the Pirates if we could get McCutchen as well as Cole.

 

I'm of the opinion that Kepler or Rosario are the guys we should be trying to use to headline a package for a top end starter.

[MidwestTwinsFan15]

I don't believe it would be a total loss to miss out on Darvish - I'm a huge pitching guy and believe the Twins need a big name, front-line starter...but at what cost should it cost the organization? Do we over pay for a guy like Darvish, who has had health issues in the past? Is that what the fans are hoping for?

 

The sediment in that 2019 is the year we are building for. The 2018 Free Agent Class is shaping up to be quite nice. Names like Kershaw and Price can opt out of their current contracts. Secondary names like Eovaldi, Harvey, Corbin, Gonzalez, Keuchel and Ryu could all be quality options that could cost the Twins both less years and dollars than Darvish would cost us. 

 

The best way the Twins will be able to add a quality, controllable pitcher is via Trade. Nick Gordon should and would be the centerpiece of that trade, in my opinion. Lets make that happen. Trade some of our unproven commodities to help the big club.

[Steve Lein]

 

Am I the only one, or are others also real uneasy with giving Darvish lots of years and dollars?  I probably shouldn't form an opinion based on a couple games in the World Series, but he really was awful.  

 

Hopefully, there was something ailing him and they know why he wasn't at least competitive.  

 

I would prefer they go with someone like Cobb or Lynn, who I view as Plan B candidates.

 

I want Darvish, and it's not just because he's the best pitcher available.

 

All you're giving up is money, which I think the Twins have available to do and quite frankly if they're ever going to do it, now is the time because of their current situation.

 

If they have to fall back on Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, they're going to spend less money but they're also going to lose a draft pick and the $1MIL or so of bonus pool money to add more future talent.

 

Doing this hurts a team like the Twins more, as they have to rely on their farm system to keep churning out talent.

 

It's a perfect storm to go after Darvish if you ask me.

[Doomtints]

I'm worried about signing Darvish. I think he is injury prone and thus overvalued. I would rather the Twins pursue other options. If the Twins bet the farm on Darvish I think they are in for disappointment. Darvish + Arrieta, sure, why not.

[mikelink45]

I felt that the big Darvish conversations were a mistake.  It has focused us on a big name instead of big picture and makes all the moves that have been accomplished seem trivial.  Without Darvish the off season will feel like a bust and that is a poor leadership move.  

 

Overall the Hot Stove has been very strange for all of baseball, but watching the big teams make moves while we boast of a 41 year old reliever has been frustrating.

 

I have also been concerned that the FO has overlooked the strengths in our own system in their efforts to put their own brand on the team. 

[TL]

So many tough calls to make and any of them could go very right or blow up and look foolish. I’m of the opinion you look to win in ‘18 (weaker division, at least wild card there for the taking) while not sacrificing the ‘19 - ‘21 window. In my dreams:

 

1. Sign Darvish

2. Trade for Archer (must give up Sano in order to keep younger elite prospects)

3. Extend Santana 2 years (pick up ‘19 option and add 2 years for $25MM?)

4. Extend Dozier 3 years ($45MM? Strong ‘18 FA class could depress his value if he hits open market)

5. Sign Frazier to play 3B (3 for $36MM?)

6. Hope Vargas can mash at DH

7. Romero and May to the bullpen

 

That doesn’t seem all that unrealistic. The ‘18 staff would be excellent (those 3 above + Berrios) and all signed through at least ‘21. Guys start coming off the books when we have to (hopefully) pay Buxton and Berrios superstar money, and guys like Lewis and Gonsalves start hitting their stride as young, cheap and high upside replacements in ‘22 and beyond.

 

I’d have to check what payoll would look like to see if that works. If not then can forego either Dozier or Frazier and have Escobar/Gordon fill in.

[brvama]

I have also been concerned that the FO has overlooked the strengths in our own system in their efforts to put their own brand on the team.

 

Mike, could you enlighten me with examples? On the rest of your post I agree, however, that falls upon us.

[mudcat14]

If the Twins whiff on Darvish, would it make sense to see how badly other clubs want to unload cumbersome remaining contracts on established pitchers rather than go $100mil or more on guys like Arrietta, Cobb or Lynn?  Samardja  & Cueto would be slighty over $20mil /season for 3 & 4 years respectively.  Greinke would run about $30 for four years.  I'm sure the DBacks & Giants would pick up some of that, depending on the return.  The Tigers got three very good, but very young prospects for Verlander during the pennant drive and are still  paying nearly a third of his remaining salary.   

 

I'm just wondering with Yu & Arietta expected to net deals in the 5/$150 range and Cobb & Lynn around 5/$100,  would it make more sense to limit our commitment duration by assuming an existing pact?

[mudcat14]

 

2. Trade for Archer (must give up Sano in order to keep younger elite prospects)


 

 

No chance I'm giving up Sano yet.  Admittedly, it's looking less and less likely that he'll ever make the real commitment needed to become the elite player that he has the potential of becoming.  But because of that potential, he's still untouchable in my book.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

 

It's a perfect storm to go after Darvish

 

 

1. We need him.

2. Payroll is low enough to take on the salary.

3. The World Series may have lowered his price tag a little. 

4. The Yankees and Dodgers are probably out because they are trying to reset that cap penalty. 

5. The 18-19 off season is going to be a huge free agent year and teams may be holding back this year in consideration. 

6. Timing is perfect because, the Royals, Tigers and White Sox are clearly or at least most likely not planning on being ultra competitive in 2018. 

7. The Twins offense announced it's presence with authority in 2017. 

 

Perfect Storm indeed!

 

[Riverbrian]

If we don't get Yu?

 

I hope it happens soon enough so there is time to execute Plan B.

 

I hope there is a Plan B. 

 

If we open 2018 with only minimal improvements... I will consider it a fairly significant failure. 

 

There better be a decent Plan B and Plan C. 

 

Support the young offense! 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins whiff on Darvish, would it make sense to see how badly other clubs want to unload cumbersome remaining contracts on established pitchers rather than go $100mil or more on guys like Arrietta, Cobb or Lynn?  Samardja  & Cueto would be slighty over $20mil /season for 3 & 4 years respectively.  Greinke would run about $30 for four years.  I'm sure the DBacks & Giants would pick up some of that, depending on the return.  The Tigers got three very good, but very young prospects for Verlander during the pennant drive and are still  paying nearly a third of his remaining salary.   

 

I'm just wondering with Yu & Arietta expected to net deals in the 5/$150 range and Cobb & Lynn around 5/$100,  would it make more sense to limit our commitment duration by assuming an existing pact?

Samardzija had 3/60 left on his deal with no buy out of the last year. Cueto has 5/110 left on his deal though it could be 4/93 if they buy out the last year.

 

This does point out how crippling it can be to sign decline phase starters to long contracts. The Tigers are stuck with the contracts of Sanchez and Zimmerman.

 

It would be hard to argue that either Lynn or Cobb have more upside than any of these 4 at the time they signed their deals for 80 million or more. Lynn and Cobb just don’t have a lot of space to decline. Darvish can decline and still be useful but the cost is enormous.

 

The only road to long term success is to develop enough cost controlled pitching from within the system so that you don’t need to fill your rotation with free agants like Santana, Nolasco and Hughes or worse. That is a long road made longer as our previous front office created a huge void.

[olivia11]

I think that giving up the draft pick to sign Lynn or Cobb (I'm not interested at all in Arrieta) is huge. It's not only giving up someone who would immediately slot in as an organizational top 20 prospect and be a potential top 100 prospect, but it's also giving up the flexibility of the slot amount - the same flexibility that was so key to the high-upside picks of the the Twins 2017 draft. So, given that... 

 

 

Plan A: Sign Darvish. I would go as high as 6 years 150 million.  Since there is no draft pick compensation and this is an opportunity to sign an "ace" without giving up top prospects, I would go this high. I feel like this could very realistically get it done.

 

Plan B: See if Lynn or Cobb would accept 4 years 60 million.  Factoring in the draft pick compensation, that is the max I would go. And I don't think it's enough to get either of them.

 

Plan C: Try to trade for Archer without giving up Sano, Lewis, and both Romero and Gonsalves. This won't be enough to get Archer.

 

Plan D: Go after second and third-tier starting pitcher targets. Odorizzi, Straily, Corbin. Also inquire about some other names that we haven't heard much about but that could be acquired via trade - like Michael Fulmer and Danny Duffy. This trade would have to include not giving up any of the MLB core (Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Mejia, Polanco, bullpen arms) Lewis, both Gonsalves and Romero, Javier, or high-upside 2017-draft guys like Rooker, Enlow, and Leach. 

 

Plan E: Sign a 5th starter type via free agency. Let competition play out in Spring Training and hope the young guys can contribute big in 2018. Put plan in motion to really improve the rotation for 2019.

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Why would the Twins do this? If we were going to trade Sano (which i'm quite certain we aren't), I'm pretty sure we'd be putting together a package to get someone better than Archer. You really want to trade Sano for a 28 year old pitcher who has put up a 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and was worth 3 WAR combined over the last two years?

Yes!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why would the Twins do this? If we were going to trade Sano (which i'm quite certain we aren't), I'm pretty sure we'd be putting together a package to get someone better than Archer. You really want to trade Sano for a 28 year old pitcher who has put up a 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and was worth 3 WAR combined over the last two years?

Archer may be 28, but he is controlled just as long as Sano (4 years), and likely for similar money. Keep in mind, Sano's performance has been spotty the last 2 years too (combined 3.3 bWAR), and on multiple fronts (health, defense, contact). Meanwhile, Archer has still excelled at health, durability, and peripherals (7.8 fWAR over the last 2 years). He is not perfect, but if you wanted someone better / with more potential than Archer, you'd likely have to give up a lot more than just Sano. In fact, just given the relative market value of SP potential versus DH potential, I am confident the Rays would decline a straight up swap of the two, even before yesterday's news broke.

 

This is why free agent Darvish is so appealing -- trading for ace potential is much more difficult than ponying up cash.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Archer may be 28, but he is controlled just as long as Sano (4 years), and likely for similar money. Keep in mind, Sano's performance has been spotty the last 2 years too (combined 3.3 bWAR), and on multiple fronts (health, defense, contact). Meanwhile, Archer has still excelled at health, durability, and peripherals (7.8 fWAR over the last 2 years). He is not perfect, but if you wanted someone better / with more potential than Archer, you'd likely have to give up a lot more than just Sano. In fact, just given the relative market value of SP potential versus DH potential, I am confident the Rays would decline a straight up swap of the two, even before yesterday's news broke.

This is why free agent Darvish is so appealing -- trading for ace potential is much more difficult than ponying up cash.

I tend to agree. I was playing around with a Sano-Archer trade possibility on another thread a couple weeks ago and wrote that I thought the Rays would say No. Good pitching is just so valuable and Sano still has some maturing to do (as a player or otherwise). And the Rays simply aren't as motivated to trade as, say, Pittsburgh seems to be.

[jorgenswest]

The Rays will get a lot of interest in Archer. Another team will offer a more valuable player than Sano to headline that deal.

[caninatl04]

I still think the inscrutable front office’s Plan A is to plan to be competitive in 2019 and not 2018.

[Mike Sixel]

I still think the inscrutable front office’s Plan A is to plan to be competitive in 2019 and not 2018.

Doesn't signing a pitcher to a longer deal help next year too?