Article: Building A Super Bullpen

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't mind a year or two for him, bullpen or rotation. I could even break out my #57 jersey again.

I thought Frankie was #47 for the Twins?

[Mr. Brooks]

Well the Twins have a long way to go just to reach passable bullpen. I don't think a super bullpen is in the cards, for 2018 anyway.

[Monkeypaws]

 

One year deal for Liriano in the Bull Pen?  

Actually, excellent idea - look at Eckersley.

[twins_89]

I think a super bullpen is beyond our reach, I'd be ecstatic if we can piece together an average bullpen next season (after having a bullpen with ERAs ranked in the 20s for the last 4 years).

[bird]

 

Maybe.  I'd say the forgotten guy is Trevor May, but he'll likely be healthier/better in 2019.

Yeah, he's one for sure.

 

They have plenty of "forgotten" men in May, Hughes, Chargois, and Jay. They have plenty of guys "ready to take the next step" in Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Pressly, Duffey, and others. They have plenty of prospects who are "promising but unproven" like Curtiss, Reed, Kinley, and  a half dozen others. They have a bunch of long shots, guys like Hackimer, Vasquez, Jones, and Anderson. They have a few come-back possibilities too, in Pineda, Burdi, and Bard.

 

People have been scoffing at the concept of a "proven closer" for a few years now, but that's precisely what they needed to focus all their attention on in terms of relief help this offseason. Rodney doesn't meet my standard in that regard, and it appears they're choosing to pass on the elite FA relief arms. I think that's a mistake. Maybe a big one too. Different bullpen objective last off-season, but in my view they failed and got away with it last year.

[gman]

The Twins will very probably have an 8 man bullpen in 2018, with I think Pressly being the longest tenured member. A 50% or more turnover in the pen over the course of the season because of poor peformance, injury or hopefully pressure from improved minor league pitchers seem reasonable to expect. Since its not very likely they sign even 3 good free agent relievers, nor do they have 3 "known" dominant relievers on the roster, the bulk of the bullpen will be in  development stage. In other words, I think wait and see is the story.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Yeah, he's one for sure.

 

They have plenty of "forgotten" men in May, Hughes, Chargois, and Jay. They have plenty of guys "ready to take the next step" in Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Pressly, Duffey, and others. They have plenty of prospects who are "promising but unproven" like Curtiss, Reed, Kinley, and  a half dozen others. They have a bunch of long shots, guys like Hackimer, Vasquez, Jones, and Anderson. They have a few come-back possibilities too, in Pineda, Burdi, and Bard.

 

People have been scoffing at the concept of a "proven closer" for a few years now, but that's precisely what they needed to focus all their attention on in terms of relief help this offseason. Rodney doesn't meet my standard in that regard, and it appears they're choosing to pass on the elite FA relief arms. I think that's a mistake. Maybe a big one too. Different bullpen objective last off-season, but in my view they failed and got away with it last year.

Absolutely love this post right up until the end where I disagree somewhat on the closer situation.

 

Kintzler was a surprise at the end of 2016 and continued to be one in 2017. Belisle, more or less, stunk early. (Though proof shows a lot of his "bad" was in a few outings). But he found himself and was pretty much just as good as Kintzler once given the closer role. In fact, the bullpen...by the numbers anyway...was much better the second half of the season than the first, without Kintzler, and with the promotion and usage of a couple young guys, and Pressly pitching much better. (That is NOT a knock on Kintzler).

 

I do not dismiss the role of the closer, though it may be changing somewhat. The modern ML bullpen construction is starting to resemble a batting order, fits, options, tendencies, usage, etc. Rodney has had spurts of Ron Davis syndrome, but come on, this guy has had a very nice career with quality numbers, multiple All Star appearances and still brings it. Because hes not 28 and signed for 5 more years at a steal of a salary he's a bum? Perspective people!

 

But as I mentioned earlier, and Bird mentions here, there ARE horses in the barn!

 

Especially for relievers, who often struggle as starters before finding their role in the pen, and then begin in lower leverage situations initially, there is nothing old or dismissive about Duffey, Pressly or Rogers. In fact, they were pretty good for stretches last season. What can another year and a new coach do to help?

 

Busentiz, and especially Hildenberger got opportunity and ran with it. How much better could they be in 2018?

 

Curtiss has mad stuff. Reed, Jay and Chargois have as much, or barely lag, and just need some better health-luck to take the next step and are oh-so-close to making a mark. You can't ignore what Moya did in the minors, showed a taste at the ML level, and there are others just behind him, RP or SP who could convert, even initially. Hell, either or both of Burdi and Bard could even be back. Regardless, I just don't feel this pen is at all "dry" of arms, talent and potential. I feel what it needs is a combination of opportunity and experience. The opportunity is there. The talent is there. The potential is there. Rodney absolutely provides production, leadership and a helpful bridge. I think one more really good arm does a lot though. And there a few guys out there to do that.

 

And I am hoping for at least one more good signing, still looking at Watson at least, but I don't think this bullpen is that far away from being really good.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I can't argue with those examples being an overpay. A vast majority of middle relievers in FA are being offered 2 year contracts. Even if they're bad for a year, it's short term. The price isn't enough to hinder the Twins' ability to acquire other players.

I'm not comfortable handing MLB jobs to prospects with the concerns each of them have. Keep them as org depth until they force the issue or injury.

Sure, I'd like to see money spent anywhere that helps the 2018 pitching staff. A good rotation can mask an okay bullpen, or vice versa. It all depends if you want to spend cash, or prospects in July.

Agreed, they're past the point of "wait and see." The time for that was when they were losing 90+ games a season. I was as vocal as anybody in regards to shedding veterans and seeing what they had in young  arms/bats, but that's a "luxury," a bad team can afford. A team that has real playoff aspirations shouldn't be banking on question marks and unproven players filling out a bullpen or rotation. One or the other in a few spots is acceptable but a rotation and bullpen that are revolving doors don't instill much confidence in a serious playoff run, The new FO seems quicker in some cases to remedy ineffectiveness so I'm ok at this point with younger arms forcing their way into playing time. This core only has a few seasons left before FA. I'd rather not watch the pitching staff burn another one. 

[old nurse]

 

It looks good at first glance to throw a list like that out there, but a plan based around that can fall apart in a hurry.

 

Duffey was very inconsistent this year. Chargois isn't and may never be healthy. Moya is largely an unknown. Jake Reed still has control problems. Melotakis was removed from the 40 man roster for a reason. Jay is a health risk and didn't exactly light the AFL on fire. Nick Anderson is a lotto ticket. Rodney is...Rodney. The that leaves you with 4 young unestablished relievers that you're counting on all performing this year, which can quickly fall to 2-3 due to injury or non-performance. And those aren't the kinds of arms you should be taxing when your starter only went 4-5 innings for the 4th time that week.

To fill out the bullpen there wille be Boshers, Pressly. Then there is what a team usually signs. That is  the aging veteran they sign for a couple of million, the aging vets they sign to minor league contracts, the never were that have promise never achieved that they try

[beckmt]

I agree that the Rodney signing probably took us out of the top tier relievers market.  However I am very concerned about the pen, losses in April and May while sorting things out make difficult runs later in the year.  Twins have 57 games against teams that are rebuilding in our division, let's take advantage of this and move now to make the playoffs.  Pitching wins, and a top flight starting rotation is not in the cards for a few years, bullpen is easier to build, but want a least 1 if not 2 more guys to be here to start than risk a bad couple of months early sorting  the pen out.  

Maybe the new wonder boys in the front office have a plan or know where they are going, but in this case I am in the 'show me' camp. 

[Blackjack]

I think Falvine consider 2017 a fluke that the Twins made the wild card and are considering 2018 a 'let the young players develop year'. Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Sano, all have lots of room for improvement and need to show that they can perform and stay healthy for a full year.  They'll sort thru all the bull pen (and starting pitcher) arms this year. Then they can make some big signings for 2019. 

 

In the meantime they're improving their whole organization, hiring and firing, setting the Twins up for some long-term, sustainable success.  Patience.

[twinfan]

To me it doesn't take much to build a very good bullpen. It is harder to manage that bullpen so you know when to use them and you don't burn them out. If a major league pitcher cannot consistently throw 1 inning without giving up a run, he doesn't belong in the league. The strikeout has caused teams like the Yankees to be thought of as having a "super" bullpen. However, getting people out is most important. Had the Twins been able to bring Kintzler back to complement Rodney, that would have been great. Pressley is the one guy who has been an enigma. He should be very, very good but is not as yet. Hopefully 2018 will be his breakout year.

[Doomtints]

 

To me it doesn't take much to build a very good bullpen. It is harder to manage that bullpen so you know when to use them

 

This describes the problem the Twins have been stuck with for years. With all young, unproven guys in the bullpen, the Twins didn't know how to use the talent they had. Having an inexperienced manager didn't help.

[BJames]

If Presley doesn't learn to throw his cure for a strike, he'll never make it.  He bounce it in the dirt every time an then has to come back with a meatball.  Forget the pen this year and hope the bats win games!  Give the young pen one more year and find a ACE or two. 

[Riverbrian]

I think Falvine consider 2017 a fluke that the Twins made the wild card

If they do. I want new guys running the front office immediately!    

[Doctor Wu]

 

Rodney has had spurts of Ron Davis syndrome, but come on, this guy has had a very nice career with quality numbers, multiple All Star appearances and still brings it. Because hes not 28 and signed for 5 more years at a steal of a salary he's a bum? Perspective people!

Ah, the infamous Ron Davis syndrome! Maybe not as horrible as Steve Blass Disease, but nevertheless an ailment that makes longtimeTwins fans cringe! That aside, good points about Rodney. I'm not giddy over the signing, but hopefully he'll be a stabilizing presence in the closer's role. Then again ....

[Doctor Wu]

 

The market rates are often awful though. Outside of signing the elite guys like Chapman, Jansen and co., so many of those contracts don't work out, even in the short term. Last year Mike Dunn got 3 years and $19 million and was awful in year 1 , Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa each got 2 years and a combined $28 million from the Marlins to put up ERA+ of 85 and 71 respectively. In 2016, Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo were guys lots of people on TD wanted and they have collectively flushed $23 million down the tank.

So very true! I vividly recall all the clamoring for Sipp and Bastardo that year, and look how that worked out. Or rather how it didn't. Signing free agent relief pitchers can be such a gamble. I'm more comfortable with what we have in the system already. On that note, what is the consensus on Trevor May for 2018? Will they try him in the bullpen or give him a shot as starter again?

[Riverbrian]

 

So very true! I vividly recall all the clamoring for Sipp and Bastardo that year, and look how that worked out. Or rather how it didn't. Signing free agent relief pitchers can be such a gamble. I'm more comfortable with what we have in the system already. On that note, what is the consensus on Trevor May for 2018? Will they try him in the bullpen or give him a shot as starter again?

 

This "too risky" thing is getting a little out of control.  

 

There is risk when you sign any player to multi year contracts and the highways are littered with bad contracts. The percentages may or may not be higher in the bullpen but bad contracts are not unique to bullpen free agents... it is however... less painful from a cost standpoint. 

 

The Astros got burned for 18 million spread over 3 years signing Tony Sipp. They still won a world series and getting burned like that didn't stop them from spending even more this year with the signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to two year deals. 

 

Would have been worse for the Astros if they signed Jason Heyward to an 8 year 184 Million Dollar deal. 

 

The Mets got burned for 12 million over two years signing Antonio Bastardo. It didn't stop them from spending even more money on Anthony Swarzak this year. 

 

Would have been worse for the Mets... if they signed Chris Davis to a 7 year 161 million dollar deal. 

 

The Tigers got burned for 11 million over two years signing Mark Lowe... I guess it is possible that that may have stopped them. They ain't spending money right now. 

 

However... it could have been worse for the Tigers... if they would have signed Jordan Zimmerman to a 5 year 110 million dollar deal.... wait... they did. 

 

There is simply risk and it can't be avoided... anytime you sign a player to a contract. The risk increases with each year you attach. 

 

If any GM's or Owners are risk adverse and afraid of signing a bad contract. They should get out of baseball and focus on death and taxes. 

 

[Riverbrian]

This post isn't intended to start a Terry Ryan debate. It isn't even to point out past mistakes or successes. 

 

It's simply to illustrate that it's about assets. It's about shopping at Dollar General for the past 5 years. 

 

Past 5 year outside bullpen acquisitions:

 

Rodney (Free Agent 1 year 4.5 million) 

Watson (Trade) 

Belisle (Free Agent 1 Year 2 Million) 

Breslow (minor league deal) 

Abad (minor league deal)

Kintzler (Minor league deal)

Boshers (minor league deal)

Graham (Rule 5)

Boyer (minor league deal)

Jepsen (Trade)

Cotts (Trade)

Pino (Minor League Deal)

Stephen Pryor (Trade)

Jason Adam (Trade)

 

Twins cost to acquire outside bullpen assets: 6.5 Million (all spent by Falvey and Lavine), Half Years of Brandon Kintzler, Kendrys Morales and Josh Willingham... Plus a Mid Range prospect with potential in Chih-Wei Hu and a bunch of minor league deals at the MLB minimum. 

 

Bullpen Assets trade acquisitions:

 

Willingham to Royals for Jason Adam

Morales to Mariners for Stephen Pryor

Graham to Yankees for PTBNL or Cash

Abad to Red Sox for Pat Light

Kintzler to Nats for Austin Watson

 

Most would agree that the Twins were in selling position at trade deadlines for 4 of the past 5 years. Yet didn't have bullpen assets to sell when all contenders are looking for them. 

 

When the Twins did find themselves in buying position... they paid a pretty heavy price. 

 

Bullpens need to be prioritized a little higher than Dollar General to prepare for good seasons and bad seasons. 

 

The Yankees got serious about their bullpen and built a super one. Watched the team fail with a super bullpen in 2016 and cashed it in... they acquired Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. 

 

The Yankees then rebuilt another super bullpen and will use at least one of those acquired prospects to outbid the Twins for the services of Gerrit Cole. 

 

If the Yankees shock the world and fail in 2018 because Judge and Stanton strike out too much... They can trade Chapman, Betences, Robertson, Kahnle, Greene and Warren for more top 100 prospects. 

 

 

[Shaitan]

Super Bullpen sounds like a marketing term, not a baseball term.

[gil4]

 

I thought Frankie was #47 for the Twins?

Yes, it is 47. I'm not sure if I typo'd or if I got my wires crossed between him and Johan when I wrote that.  It is a 47 jersey (with the name).  My next one will be a Carew jersey - 29 will never go out of style. 

[thegambler]

I always thought the Twins should have turned Liriano into a closer, rather than trade him for next to nothing. (Ok, we got Escobar). Liriano's stats first time through a lineup were amazing. When he started to get 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup, he suffered. We missed out.

[Brandon]

 

This post isn't intended to start a Terry Ryan debate. It isn't even to point out past mistakes or successes. 

 

It's simply to illustrate that it's about assets. It's about shopping at Dollar General for the past 5 years. 

 

Past 5 year outside bullpen acquisitions:

 

Rodney (Free Agent 1 year 4.5 million) 

Watson (Trade) 

Belisle (Free Agent 1 Year 2 Million) 

Breslow (minor league deal) 

Abad (minor league deal)

Kintzler (Minor league deal)

Boshers (minor league deal)

Graham (Rule 5)

Boyer (minor league deal)

Jepsen (Trade)

Cotts (Trade)

Pino (Minor League Deal)

Stephen Pryor (Trade)

Jason Adam (Trade)

 

Twins cost to acquire outside bullpen assets: 6.5 Million (all spent by Falvey and Lavine), Half Years of Brandon Kintzler, Kendrys Morales and Josh Willingham... Plus a Mid Range prospect with potential in Chih-Wei Hu and a bunch of minor league deals at the MLB minimum. 

 

Bullpen Assets trade acquisitions:

 

Willingham to Royals for Jason Adam

Morales to Mariners for Stephen Pryor

Graham to Yankees for PTBNL or Cash

Abad to Red Sox for Pat Light

Kintzler to Nats for Austin Watson

 

Most would agree that the Twins were in selling position at trade deadlines for 4 of the past 5 years. Yet didn't have bullpen assets to sell when all contenders are looking for them. 

 

When the Twins did find themselves in buying position... they paid a pretty heavy price. 

 

Bullpens need to be prioritized a little higher than Dollar General to prepare for good seasons and bad seasons. 

 

The Yankees got serious about their bullpen and built a super one. Watched the team fail with a super bullpen in 2016 and cashed it in... they acquired Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. 

 

The Yankees then rebuilt another super bullpen and will use at least one of those acquired prospects to outbid the Twins for the services of Gerrit Cole. 

 

If the Yankees shock the world and fail in 2018 because Judge and Stanton strike out too much... They can trade Chapman, Betences, Robertson, Kahnle, Greene and Warren for more top 100 prospects. 

 

You also forgot Pressly rule 5.

 

Also quite a few of those in the dollar general bin have been good buys.  No we can't get a top 100 prospect for them either but we didn't overpay for any of those relievers.  

 

It would be nice to have a few relievers like back in the day when we had Nathan, Guerrier, Rincon, ....

 

Well We just got Zach Duke and he is decent coming off of an injury.  I don't hate this move but feel like we need one good reliever to sign.....Oh Well...  Merry Christmas.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Super Bullpen sounds like a marketing term, not a baseball term.

ask the Rockies about that