Article: Winter Meetings: Reliever Roulette

[Deduno Abides]

Kintzler reunion looks to be dead...https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/nationals-to-re-sign-brandon-kintzler.html

This is getting to be disappointing. It’s the same guarantee as Pineda received, but Pineda can’t pitch this year. You’d like to think the Twins could have beaten the offer, if they wanted.

 

It may be that management is more confident than everyone else about its internal options. Who knows, maybe they’re right. I remember when Denny Green cut all of his veteran quarterbacks and said the inexperienced Daunte Culpepper, who had looked terrible in preseason opportunities, was going to start. Denny got ripped pretty hard, but Culpepper proved him right.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[ppearson50]

 

This is getting to be disappointing. It’s the same guarantee as Pineda received, but Pineda can’t pitch this year. You’d like to think the Twins could have beaten the offer, if they wanted.

Looks like we are going to have to hope Hildenburger and Taylor Rogers can be the closer or 8th inning guy. 

[amjgt]

While I am certainly a "let's wait and see" kind of guy that gives the benefit of the doubt, I will admit that the the combination of not signing anyone yet, and who we left exposed for the rule 5 draft does have me scratching my head a bit.

[amjgt]

Plenty of good names left:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/available/

[Deduno Abides]

They should sign Fernando Rodney and Fernando Abad, and then move Fernando Romero to the bullpen. Walk-in music would be ABBA, of course.

[amjgt]

Fernando Tatis bench coach?

[drjim]

Adding relievers in the Rule 5!

 

(Let's ignore the 2 that they lost)

[tvagle]

Delete the Cishek dreams...https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-to-sign-steve-cishek.html

 

If this continues, Falvine better look into Belize (the city not the pitcher) as a safe haven or sanctuary from the TD backlash

[gheggs42]

Would like to see Rondon and Watson brought on 

[drjim]

Exciting!

 

[drjim]

I will say, if the Twins do pull off a Darvish signing, I will be much more tolerant of signing a lesser reliever.

 

But if they miss on all the better second tier relievers, and miss out on a top end starter...

[nicksaviking]

 

This is getting to be disappointing. It’s the same guarantee as Pineda received, but Pineda can’t pitch this year. You’d like to think the Twins could have beaten the offer, if they wanted.

It may be that management is more confident than everyone else about its internal options. Who knows, maybe they’re right. I remember when Denny Green cut all of his veteran quarterbacks and said the inexperienced Daunte Culpepper, who had looked terrible in preseason opportunities, was going to start. Denny got ripped pretty hard, but Culpepper proved him right.

 

I thought Kintzler's wife was passive aggressively nixing his return to Minnesota. Though she wanted him to go to AZ so who knows what to make of this.

 

I had very little interest in a Kintzler reunion myself, I think this team needs to beef up it's strikeout numbers not lessen them. Also, I'd prefer not to revisit the days of "we're putting the band back together". In terms of the Twins, my aversion to sentimentality is very strong these days, I'd go out of my way to avoid it.

 

Not that I'm not getting quite anxious about all the quality bullpen arms that are going elsewhere, I'm disappointed; just not disappointed in this one. 

[FunnyPenguin]

Man if these guys don't sign at least 1 good reliever, I'm going to be a non-happy camper.  Cishek signs for $12-14 Mil across 2 years and Kintzler for $10m across 2 years, those aren't unaffordable. 

[Han Joelo]

Tom Verducci with perspective: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/13/free-agency-relief-pitchers-bryan-shaw-pat-neshek-jake-mcgee

 

The relevant quote:

 

"Let’s rewind the clock to the free agent market just two years to get an idea. After the 2015 season, teams handed out multi-year deals to 14 non-closer relievers at the cost of $197 million, or about $5.8 million per pitcher per season. In just two years, 13 of those 14 pitchers have either been hurt, pitched poorly (ERA+ worse than 100) or are no longer with the same team. Only one of the 14 pitchers has pitched effectively for his signing club for two years: Joakim Soria of the Royals.

The landscape is littered with the likes of Tony Sipp (three years, $18 million), Antonio Bastardo (two, $12 million) and Mark Lowe (two, $11 million). Last year you had Brett Cecil (four years, $30.5 million and one of the rare no-trade clauses for someone who neither starts or closes games), Brad Ziegler (two, $16 million), Mark Rzepczynski (two years, $11 million) and Daniel Hudson (two, $11 million). All of them were disappointments."

 

And his parting shot:

 

"… The Marlins released Edinson Volquez, paying him $18 million to go away essentially to free up a roster spot. Here’s a reminder when you are a fan of a bad team and you want it to sign free agents this time of year: be careful what you wish for. Here are the Marlins’ free agent signings this decade: Volquez, Ziegler, Wei-Yin Chen, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Placido Polanco, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, John Buck and Javier Vazquez. Ouch."

Edited December 14, 2017 by Han Joelo

[PseudoSABR]

Bleh,

[Vanimal46]

Gross.

[Squirrel]

 

Bleh,

I'll see your 'bleh' and raise you a 'ugh, yuck'

[Dman]

 

Bleh,

He was my least favorite option.  Dang it.

[Vanimal46]

I'll see your 'bleh' and raise you a 'ugh, yuck'

We have bleh, gross, ugh, and yuck so far. I think that's all Seth needs to write in his upcoming Rodney article.

[PseudoSABR]

Terms are more favorable than first reported.

 

In any case, isn't Rodney still on the mound pitching in game 163? I didn't know he was available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Tom Verducci with perspective: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/13/free-agency-relief-pitchers-bryan-shaw-pat-neshek-jake-mcgee

 

The relevant quote:

 

"Let’s rewind the clock to the free agent market just two years to get an idea. After the 2015 season, teams handed out multi-year deals to 14 non-closer relievers at the cost of $197 million, or about $5.8 million per pitcher per season. In just two years, 13 of those 14 pitchers have either been hurt, pitched poorly (ERA+ worse than 100) or are no longer with the same team. Only one of the 14 pitchers has pitched effectively for his signing club for two years: Joakim Soria of the Royals.

The landscape is littered with the likes of Tony Sipp (three years, $18 million), Antonio Bastardo (two, $12 million) and Mark Lowe (two, $11 million). Last year you had Brett Cecil (four years, $30.5 million and one of the rare no-trade clauses for someone who neither starts or closes games), Brad Ziegler (two, $16 million), Mark Rzepczynski (two years, $11 million) and Daniel Hudson (two, $11 million). All of them were disappointments."

 

And his parting shot:

 

"… The Marlins released Edinson Volquez, paying him $18 million to go away essentially to free up a roster spot. Here’s a reminder when you are a fan of a bad team and you want it to sign free agents this time of year: be careful what you wish for. Here are the Marlins’ free agent signings this decade: Volquez, Ziegler, Wei-Yin Chen, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Placido Polanco, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, John Buck and Javier Vazquez. Ouch."

 

How does that work compared to relying solely on the minors? You need relief pitchers.....

[Mike Sixel]

Rodney? Yuck. Gotta admit, given their signings last year, and last year's rule V pick.....not a fan of the FO and their approach to RP at all. Hope to be wrong....

[twins_89]

So, it looks like Rodney's is our big relief pitcher acquisition. Even my worst case scenarios going into free agency were nowhere near this bad.

[jorgenswest]

I am sure I said somewhere that I would rather the Twins go big for someone like Davis or Darvish or sign an old guy like Sabathia and try to squeeze out a year. This fits the old guy signing.

 

I still don’t like it. Intellectually I know that many of the multi year reliever free agent deals work out badly for the teams. My intellect isn’t taking over here. It should be telling me that the likelihood of Rodney pitching acceptably well in 2018 is similar to many of the relievers recently signed. My gut isn’t impressed with the signing.

[bird]

 

Bullpens are becoming the new currency.

 

The Twins need to get bullpen serious.

 

This is off season #3 of me saying this. 

 

The prices are reflecting this, '

 

Wish I would have bought reliever stock.

 

 

Verducci thinks you would have been better off shorting the market from the perspective of results. Caveat: I think he isolated non-closers. But still 13/14? Yikes.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/13/free-agency-relief-pitchers-bryan-shaw-pat-neshek-jake-mcgee

[bird]

 

Terms are more favorable than first reported.

 

In any case, isn't Rodney still on the mound pitching in game 163? I didn't know he was available.

 

I had a picture of Derek on the phone, haggling while fondling a framed photo of Calvin Griffith.

[Deduno Abides]

.

Bleh,

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/941343889390260224

Like it. I know Rodney has his ups and downs, but this deal is reasonable considering his stats over the last few years and it seems like his teammates like him. It’s a short commitment at not much more than was paid to Kevin Jepsen in 2016. He probably won’t be The Guy, but he should be a guy who is better than a lot of what’s come out of the bullpen the last few years. If he’s terrible, they’ll eat it.

 

Multi-year deals for relievers, as stated by Han Joelo above, can be expensive crapshoots.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[Deduno Abides]

Fernando Tatis bench coach?

Rodney Cline Carew.

[Riverbrian]

 

Verducci thinks you would have been better off shorting the market from the perspective of results. Caveat: I think he isolated non-closers. But still 13/14? Yikes.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/13/free-agency-relief-pitchers-bryan-shaw-pat-neshek-jake-mcgee

 

Verducci just went into my Dinosaur column on this special spreadsheet I keep by me. 

 

I agree that shopping for bullpen arms is pretty volatile. The baseball highways are littered with poor numbers and big contract combo's... although... it should be pointed out that in the small sample size world of relief pitching, one horrible performance can be hard to overcome and some metrics can end up looking worse than they actually are. Regardless... you just gotta do it and do your best to do it right. 

 

Monster bullpens are being built and they are producing victories. You handicap yourself getting a closer, a couple of setup guys and finishing off the staff with a bunch "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys" who get to throw when the starter chokes. The closer goes down and everybody moves up a chair and pretty soon you are counting on one of those "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys in a high leverage situation. 

 

The Yankees had a great bullpen and still went out and got Robertson and Kahnle. We knocked Severino out in the 1st inning and that bullpen beat us. 

The Indians bullpen was 7 quality deep. 

The Dodgers had arms lined up. 

The Red Sox. 

The Astros 

D-Backs

Rockies

The Nats didn't start with a great pen but they finished with a pretty nice one. 

 

Of all the playoff teams... Only the Twins and maybe the Cubs had what "I myself" considered to be sub-par bullpens. 

 

All 30 teams should be looking for or trying to create their own Andrew Miller. 

 

I'm trying to think of a team that had a lights out bullpen and didn't make the playoffs. I can't off the top of my head. 

 

All of this is driving the price up in my opinion. 

 

The evidence seems to be pretty clear... The Year is soon 2018... baseball is different than it was two decades ago and bullpens are producing playoff teams. 

 

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

Verducci just went into my Dinosaur column on this special spreadsheet I keep by me.

 

I agree that shopping for bullpen arms is pretty volatile. The baseball highways are littered with poor numbers and big contract combo's... although... it should be pointed out that in the small sample size world of relief pitching, one horrible performance can be hard to overcome and some metrics can end up looking worse than they actually are. Regardless... you just gotta do it and do your best to do it right.

 

Monster bullpens are being built and they are producing victories. You handicap yourself getting a closer, a couple of setup guys and finishing off the staff with a bunch "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys" who get to throw when the starter chokes. The closer goes down and everybody moves up a chair and pretty soon you are counting on one of those "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys in a high leverage situation.

 

The Yankees had a great bullpen and still went out and got Robertson and Kahnle. We knocked Severino out in the 1st inning and that bullpen beat us.

The Indians bullpen was 7 quality deep.

The Dodgers had arms lined up.

The Red Sox.

The Astros

D-Backs

Rockies

The Nats didn't start with a great pen but they finished with a pretty nice one.

 

Of all the playoff teams... Only the Twins and maybe the Cubs had what "I myself" considered to be sub-par bullpens.

 

All 30 teams should be looking for or trying to create their own Andrew Miller.

 

I'm trying to think of a team that had a lights out bullpen and didn't make the playoffs. I can't off the top of my head.

 

All of this is driving the price up in my opinion.

 

The evidence seems to be pretty clear... The Year is soon 2018... baseball is different than it was two decades ago and bullpens are producing playoff teams.

Interestingly, maybe only one key reliever on those teams was a free agent signee last winter - Chapman. Two, if you count Jansen reupping with the Dodgers. A lot of key relievers were not expected to be, such as Morrow, and several of the guys who were expected to be important at the start of the season, such as Betances, Giles and Devenski, were almost meaningless in the playoffs. The Rockies may be an exception, but their season ended the same way the Twins’ did, and their signings were tailing off a lot at the end of the season.

 

Everybody agrees that relievers are important. It may be that predictability is so bad that the Twins don’t want to sign multi-year deals right now.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Deduno Abides