Article: Winter Meetings: Reliever Roulette

[ashbury]

Bumping this one just to offer kudos for the foresight - are you our mole in the Front Office? Actual discussion of Pineda now belongs in the Article about his signing: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28173-article-twins-sign-rhp-michael-pineda

 

I'd like to see us maybe get McGee assuming he is not too expensive. I like the three guys above too tho.

 

Also would anyone take a risk on Pineda? Maybe he comes back this year and could help the pen at the end of the year then next year slides in as a starter. I see an injured Smyly got 2 years $10 mil with $6 mil in incentives. I wouldn't mind a similar deal for Pineda and we sign Rodney to a 1 year deal or another guy to a 2 year deal.

 

[bobs]

I really just think they need a closer.  Whether it's a guy who has been a closer before or a guy with closer stuff that they can move into that role.  I believe the arms they have can be put together for a solid bullpen.  Hildenberger can be the 7th or 8th inning guy.  Trevor May, Tyler Jay, J.T. Chargois are all upside guys.  Duffey can be a 6th or 7th inning guy.

[gil4]

 

According to the TD Offseason handbook, the Twins have about $96M committed already, and their record payroll was $113M.  If the Twins sign two good bullpen arms at the rates they are currently going at (let's say $8M and $5M), then add Darvish ($25M), that puts the Twins at *ahem* $134M. 

Wasn't the payroll record set before the latest TV deal kicked in? For the last few years, spending would have just been in the pursuit of mediocrity, so payroll has been low, but based on the increased revenue, $130M - $150M is where they ought to be over the next few years.

[cmoss84]

Would love to see them add Trevor Rosenthal and Swarzak on 2 year deals for a total of around 20mil.

 

TR: 2/14

AS: 2/6

[IndianaTwin]

 

I'd like to see us maybe get McGee assuming he is not too expensive. I like the three guys above too tho.

 

Also would anyone take a risk on Pineda? Maybe he comes back this year and could help the pen at the end of the year then next year slides in as a starter. I see an injured Smyly got 2 years $10 mil with $6 mil in incentives. I wouldn't mind a similar deal for Pineda and we sign Rodney to a 1 year deal or another guy to a 2 year deal.

 

Ding, ding, ding -- we've got a winner. 

 

(And deserving of off-season chicken as a result.) 

Edited December 13, 2017 by IndianaTwin

[Twins33]

Would love to see them add Trevor Rosenthal and Swarzak on 2 year deals for a total of around 20mil.

 

TR: 2/14

AS: 2/6

Swarzak just got your Rosenthal $ from the Mets.

[cmoss84]

crap.

[Vanimal46]

Eventually they'll have to pay market rates if they want to make a playoff run... Just like everything else, what do you want the market rate to be, money or prospects?

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Bumping this one just to offer kudos for the foresight - are you our mole in the Front Office? Actual discussion of Pineda now belongs in the Article about his signing: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28173-article-twins-sign-rhp-michael-pineda

Just a thought I had for a long time. Worth the risk and I'm glad Twins did it!

[Sam Morley]

Aside from an established lockdown closer, I don't think free agency is the right place to acquire bullpen help. As others have said, relief pitchers are unpredictable. I would add to that, that there are too many other less expensive (though no more predictable) ways of trying to improve the bullpen. I think the best way to try to improve the bullpen is to turn middling or failing starters already on your roster into relievers. 

 

You can make those middling or failing starters available for conversion to the bullpen by replacing them in free agency or via trade (hopefully with reliable, expensive, top-quality starters) or with prospects in your own system.

 

Over the course of the first half of the season, evaluate the successes and failings of your bullpen and make trades. You can see who is having active success for teams that are sellers. 

 

I think this is so much better than over-paying for Brandon Kintzler and his ilk in free agency. 

[cmoss84]

I hope they bite the bullet and go for Holland or Rosenthal vs. signing 2 or 3 low end guys. We have enough young guys to not have to do that...

 

We might have to overspend, but if we don't get Darvish, paying a few extra million for one of these guys might be worth it. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I hope they bite the bullet and go for Holland or Rosenthal vs. signing 2 or 3 low end guys. We have enough young guys to not have to do that...

 

We might have to overspend, but if we don't get Darvish, paying a few extra million for one of these guys might be worth it. 

FYI, Trevor Rosenthal is going to miss most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery at the end of August, so if they were to sign him it'd be a value play for 2019 (a la Pineda). Don't really see how that benefits them in their situation.

 

 

Comparing a contract for a player who has bargaining power versus that of a player still under team control is not very relevant to anything.

I only included that detail for context as to how these salaries would look compared to existing players on the roster. 

[USAFChief]

I never tire of reading the Twins don't need to spend on the bullpen because of all the internal options.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I never tire of reading the Twins don't need to spend on the bullpen because of all the internal options.

 

I don't mind saving some room for the internal options (to a point at least), but I think it would be very negligent on the part of the front office to not pick up a guy (preferably two) that can consistently put a zero up in late innings. I can certainly see one bargain type guy (i.e. Kintzler type), but I think they need at least one more guy who will be someone Molitor can count on from day one... if for no other reason than to keep Molitor from wearing down guys like Hildy and Duffey.

[cmoss84]

 

FYI, Trevor Rosenthal is going to miss most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery at the end of August, so if they were to sign him it'd be a value play for 2019 (a la Pineda). Don't really see how that benefits them in their situation.

 

 

I only included that detail for context as to how these salaries would look compared to existing players on the roster. 

Sorry, forgot the other part. The Rosenthal bit was meant to go along with the Iglesias rumors. Iglesias could close this year. Rosenthal the next if we don't keep him...

 

I just think getting him on the cheap(ish) would be a good investment, just like the Pineda signing, like you mentioned. 

[nicksaviking]

The league's best relievers are starting to look like they're forming an NBA team. The best ones seem to be joining up on one team to form a super duo or trio.

 

As a team that doesn't even have a solo, it's a little discouraging. Maybe the Twins DO have to make one or two of their own to attract others.

[twins_89]

There's been a run on relievers, so hopefully the Twins can get something done before the market is picked clean. Looking at the MLB trade rumors list of top free agents the availability of second tier relievers is getting a bit thin. By top 50 ranking the relievers are:

 

8. Davis

10. Holland

16. Reed

18. Minor - TEX 2/$18.5M

19. Morrow - CHC 2/$21M

24. Nicasio - SEA 2/$?M 

25. Shaw - COL 3/$27M

30. McGee - COL 3/$27M

36. Swarzak - NYM 2/$14M

37. Cishek

38. Kintzler

41. Hunter - PHI 2/$18M

43. Neshek - PHI 2/$16.3M

44. Watson

47. Tillman

Honorable Mention. Smith

Honorable Mention. Rodney

 

EDIT: Smith to HOU, so one more off the board

Edited December 13, 2017 by twins_89

[ppearson50]

Hopefully we get Cishek and Kintzler. I hate that the Twins always wait out the market and seem to never be agressive in the first few weeks of free agency. 

 

[twins_89]

On the trade front, it looks like Raisel Iglesias isn't happening. Sounds like the Reds asking price was just too high.

[Twins33]

On the trade front, it looks like Raisel Iglesias isn't happening. Sounds like the Reds asking price was just too high.

I'm good with that. While he's great, I hate trading a ton of assets for a reliever.

[amjgt]

Possibly, yes. It really depends on payroll. Why should us fans care that much about payroll?

From the fans' perspective this is the issue with no salary cap.

 

We don't have enough information to confidently say what we would do. If I knew that our payroll cap was $130M then I'd say spending $8M on a big RP upgrade would be a good use of funds, but if I was told that $110M was our internal cap, then I'd probably focus most of our remaining resources on a SP upgrade and buy a couple lottery ticket RPs. It always sounds good to say "it's not my money" but we know Falvine has a cap (maybe a softish one), we just don't know what it is.

 

The fact that Falvine spent $2m on Pineda for this season, doesn't give us the answer, but it does give us some clues. If their soft cap was $110m, I strongly doubt that they would use $2m of their $15m left on a organizational strategic move rather than on a move designed to make a big improvement for 2018. This makes me think that they are working with a number much closer to 130 than 110.

Edited December 14, 2017 by amjgt

[minnesquatcha]

I have heard Cishek rumors and their has been some Rodney and Kintzler talk. I think a bit part of the Twins failure to bring along young arms was in part due to the mindset of the previous regime. Look at last year. Hildenberger was successful, Rodgers turned a corner before he got potentially overused and tired. Busenitz looked ok, peripheral numbers didn't support his era, but he was better than expected (thanks Angels). Curtiss and Moya both came up late and showed flashes of what looks like major league stuff. Chagois has shown that in the past and is coming back from injury. Luke Bard had solid numbers at Rochester last year and there are other reasons to be optimistic. I wouldn't call it quits on this market though. I would hope they add a couple of veterans on shorter term contracts that are known for their mentorship and leadership (see Belisle, Matt). I think this new front office knows what they need to do and can do it. Lets speculate on numbers and contracts and let these guys do their job until they prove they have no clue what they are doing. I haven't seen that yet, so I will continue to believe in them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Hopefully we get Cishek and Kintzler. I hate that the Twins always wait out the market and seem to never be agressive in the first few weeks of free agency. 

 

This would be fine, though I'd rather get a bit better than Kintzler... nothing against the guy, but I'd prefer someone a bit younger with better peripherals. I get that Molitor would use him as the closer, which I suppose saves the better bullets for the 7th and 8th, but I'd rather just get a better reliever.

[bird]

 

I never tire of reading the Twins don't need to spend on the bullpen because of all the internal options.

 

Yeah, but THIS time I'm serious.

[curt1965]

It would be just like the Twins to sign Rodney-typical Twin move-drafting old, washed up reliever. New front office-same old moves.

[Deduno Abides]

Kintzler, Rodney and Oh would be ok. Looked up Rodney’s stats and was surprised to see he has been a 55% groundball pitcher.

[tvagle]

Kintzler reunion looks to be dead...https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/nationals-to-re-sign-brandon-kintzler.html

[twins_89]

This is really starting to remind me of last off-season. I kept waiting for the Twins to sign a decent reliever only to watch as every moderately good option went off the board. It was a mistake then and it's looking more and more like the mistake will be repeated.

[Riverbrian]

Bullpens are becoming the new currency.

 

The Twins need to get bullpen serious.

 

This is off season #3 of me saying this. 

 

The prices are reflecting it.'

 

Wish I would have bought reliever stock.

[Han Joelo]

 

This is really starting to remind me of last off-season. I kept waiting for the Twins to sign a decent reliever only to watch as every moderately good option went off the board. It was a mistake then and it's looking more and more like the mistake will be repeated.

 

 

I agree, but I think it might be worth taking a look at that list of moderately good options and see how they turned out.

 

Thinking about the Astros plan, it seems like the Twins might be an a spot similar to when they went out and traded for Giles.  Maybe something like that is in the works.  Or maybe they just really prefer the internal options.  Dunno.  Not much left to pick over, though.