Article: 4 Stories To Watch At The Winter Meetings

[MN_ExPat]

My question for many of the folks who say Gonsalves only has 4-5 range "stuff and potential"... have any of you seen him pitch or looked at his track record through the minors?   There is a reason that he's one of the top rated LH starting prospects by MLB.   I'm not saying he (or Romero) are untouchable, but... seriously??   He has potential, the kind you don't lightly give away. 

 

I get the whole shiny, new toy syndrome or the allure of selling your cow for some "magic" beans, I do (I also really despise the Yankees and the SEC/Alabama... but that's another story and rant), but at a certain times you have to stand back and trust some of the cards you have in your hand.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My question for many of the folks who say Gonsalves only has 4-5 range "stuff and potential"... have any of you seen him pitch or looked at his track record through the minors?   There is a reason that he's one of the top rated LH starting prospects by MLB.   I'm not saying he (or Romero) are untouchable, but... seriously??   He has potential, the kind you don't lightly give away. 

 

I get the whole shiny, new toy syndrome or the allure of selling your cow for some "magic" beans, I do (I also really despise the Yankees and the SEC/Alabama... but that's another story and rant), but at a certain times you have to stand back and trust some of the cards you have in your hand.

 

Aren't minor leaguers really the magic beans, and veterans the cow here? Hardly any minor league players make a serious contribution in the majors. 

[USAFChief]

 

Aren't minor leaguers really the magic beans, and veterans the cow here? Hardly any minor league players make a serious contribution in the majors. 

concur.

[nicksaviking]

My question for many of the folks who say Gonsalves only has 4-5 range "stuff and potential"... have any of you seen him pitch or looked at his track record through the minors? There is a reason that he's one of the top rated LH starting prospects by MLB. I'm not saying he (or Romero) are untouchable, but... seriously?? He has potential, the kind you don't lightly give away.

 

I get the whole shiny, new toy syndrome or the allure of selling your cow for some "magic" beans, I do (I also really despise the Yankees and the SEC/Alabama... but that's another story and rant), but at a certain times you have to stand back and trust some of the cards you have in your hand.

I'm always a guy who loves the prospects and wants to hoard them (but not now, I want to cash in for the big prizes) and I've been thrilled with Gonsalves' development, but for a guy who is supposed to be polished and have good control, he throws so many pitches. In the minors he can get guys to chase off the plate, in the majors he can't count on that. Berrios did that too, it took a demotion and some re-tooling then he came back up, attacked the zone and did well.

 

However, Berrios has great stuff and can still miss bats while throwing within the zone, Gonsalves doesn't have have the same stuff, I think it's pretty unlikely he finds himself at the top of the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I just can't see why the heck you would trade Gonsalves or Romero for another pitcher. Seems dumb to trade one of your 2 best pitchers in the Organization for someone that's had more success in MLB, but is older. And that's not counting any other players it'd take to aquire said player.

I'd likely part with Gonsalves as the key piece to get Cole. Gonsalves will likely take lumps in the majors, and you have to factor that into his major league readiness part. He probably wont' be a significant contributor to this team in 2018. Cole likely would.

 

I'd trade them both for Archer (though I'd rather sub Gordon in for one of them), and I suspect that this is where those talks would start. Archer has 4 years of affordable control and he's pitched VERY well. You're likely sending both Gonsalves and Romero to TB along with a higher ceiling lotto ticket or two in the low minors.

[nytwinsfan]

[big dog]

mlb.com says that the Tigers would listen to offers for Michael Fulmer.  Not a huge stud, but maybe we can trade with Gardy...Casilla, Lew Ford, Duensing, and Toby Gardenhire to manage one of their minor league teams?  Get 'er done!

[amjgt]

We have to be realistic about what kind of pitchers Gonsalves and Romero are. Both Archer and Cole have already reached a higher level than Gonsalves has a ceiling.

This is the kind of unsubstantiated opinion that makes me roll my eyes (no offense).

 

At age 24, in 2013, Chris Archer was the 44th rated minor league prospect, after a 2012 3.8 ERA at AAA, with around 9.5K/9

 

Nobody would've said that 2013 Chris Archer's ceiling was actual Chris Archer's performance

 

Pitching is fickle.

 

I think talking about pitchers' ceilings is silly. There are too many examples every year of "WTF" to convince me that modern analytics have a great handle on pitchers. At the end of the day, results matter. Certain previous results can indicate likelihood of future success, but ceilings of successful minor league pitchers still seem more art than science.

 

Having said all that, I have NO PROBLEM trading either of those minor leaguers for Cole or Archer

Edited December 12, 2017 by amjgt

[amjgt]

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/940328475730350080

I can't remember the last player/team the national media thought the Yankees DIDN'T line up well with Edited December 12, 2017 by amjgt

[Minfidel]

 

I hope they're in on Darvish, but won't be heartbroken if they're not. Lots of money and years for a 31-year-old with some past arm issues. I'd love him to be here, but something about him makes me a bit uneasy.

 

I'd really like them to chase Cobb, but the Cubs' interest probably drives the cost up above where it belongs. And, even if the Twins are able to offer apples to apples in terms of years and dollars, the Cubs are probably a bit closer to winning again. I imagine if all other things are equal, that might be a pretty good tie-breaker.

 

The prospect haul required for Archer might be a bit hard to swallow. Honestly, I think I'd prefer Cole to Archer - 2 years younger, comparable (if not better) career numbers, same number of years before FA, and likely a bit more reasonable in cost to acquire.

 

I have zero interest in another Rule 5 pick-up. They have enough young guys of their own that could be treated as an in-house Rule 5 guy. Sign a veteran or two and let the young guys battle it out. Maybe look at a guy or two that's available and if they're not selected, trade for them. 

Archer will be expensive in terms of prospects, but he's got four years left on his contract; $6.5 mill next year and options for just $9 million and $11 million in 2020 and 21. That's almost cheap in terms of salary; over 4 years you spend about half of what you would for two years of Darvish. 

[amjgt]

Archer will be expensive in terms of prospects, but he's got four years left on his contract; $6.5 mill next year and options for just $9 million and $11 million in 2020 and 21. That's almost cheap in terms of salary; over 4 years you spend about half of what you would for two years of Darvish.

Yeah... I wonder if the FO earmarked $60M that we saved (over 4 years) by trading for Archer instead of signing Darvish, what they could do. It could be used for literally whatever they deemed necessary to build back the farm system assets that were used to get Archer.

 

Basically they'd be buying comp picks, and Intl FA money, and have a full willingness to take on contracts with 1-2 year left, from teams like Miami who are begging to shed payroll.

 

How much does a Comp A pick "cost"

 

How much does $2M in Intl FA pool "cost"

 

If we literally had $60M to play with could we end up with 5 comp A/B picks?

 

How big of a Draft pool salary cap could one team amass?

 

Nobody has tested those waters. Why not be the first?

Edited December 12, 2017 by amjgt

[Linus]

It was pretty underwhelming what they did last year when they had the number one Rule 5 pick, I don't expect much this year as far as gains for the Twins.

 

If they lose Burdi, I think that will hurt them in the long run, he has too much potential.

Agreed. They completely screwed up the Rule 5 draft last year when they were picking first. Don't bother this year.

[MN_ExPat]

Aren't minor leaguers really the magic beans, and veterans the cow here? Hardly any minor league players make a serious contribution in the majors.

 

Aye, that would be true Good Sir.

[nytwinsfan]

Apparently Pirates will trade Cole for the following: 

 

 

I wish we could substitute in Jorge for Jay . . . but, that's probably not realistic. Seriously have to consider doing this, if it is the offer.

[drjim]

Really not a bad offer for the Twins. Less than I thought it would take.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd do that in a heartbeat, if true. That seems light to me though.

[jimmer]

For only 2 years of Gerrtt Cole?  I understand the dire need for pitching we have, but it would be Cole for two years and then he's gone.

 

Two questions: 

Do we really think we have a window now?

What do we think we have in Gordon?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, that's not a terrible offer at all. Gordon and Jay are likely MLBers with some upside. Granite is more of a role guy. Only real issue is that this doesn't solve our 40 man issues with too many pitchers. Actually, it makes them worse. Wonder if they would take a guy like Jorge over Jay (unless they plan on making Jay a starter).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

For only 2 years of Gerrtt Cole?  I understand the dire need for pitching we have, but it would be Cole for two years and then he's gone.

 

Two questions: 

Do we really think we have a window now?

What do we think we have in Gordon?

 

That window sure looks nicer with a guy like Cole in the rotation.

 

You want my honest opinion of Gordon. Average to slightly above defense with a modestly above average bat. That's a nice asset at SS. I think he can have several .750-.850 OPS type seasons as he hits his prime while playing good enough defense to stick at short. That's a nice piece. He wont' get there in season one, but he should get there. Do you think that is too much to ask? 2 years of a good, above average pitcher, for a two potential above average pieces in a 4th OF.

[USAFChief]

 

Apparently Pirates will trade Cole for the following: 

 

 

I wish we could substitute in Jorge for Jay . . . but, that's probably not realistic. Seriously have to consider doing this, if it is the offer.

Gordon and Jay, plus a throw in?

 

Pull the trigger already.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Apparently Pirates will trade Cole for the following:

 

https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497

 

I wish we could substitute in Jorge for Jay . . . but, that's probably not realistic. Seriously have to consider doing this, if it is the offer.

That seems like a fair price for a pitcher to slot in at the top of the rotation. Edited December 12, 2017 by AlwaysinModeration

[Doctor Wu]

On the possibility of the Twins signing Yu Darvish, every post or article I read mentions the "ties" that he has to Thad Levine from his days in Texas. But how much of a factor is that really? Just because Levine was in the front office at the same time, does that really signify some sort of strong relationship he had with Darvish? I mean, were they golfing buddies, going out for sushi together, swapping wives or something else that might have created a strong bond? Otherwise, it doesn't seem to me that such a tenuous "link" will play any part in Darvish deciding to sign with the Twins or not. Any thoughts?

[nicksaviking]

 

Apparently Pirates will trade Cole for the following: 

 

 

I wish we could substitute in Jorge for Jay . . . but, that's probably not realistic. Seriously have to consider doing this, if it is the offer.

 

If that's serious I'd like the think the Twins have already gotten confirmation that Chris Archer won't be traded because I can't see the Twins winning that sweepstakes without Gordon.

[amjgt]

On the possibility of the Twins signing Yu Darvish, every post or article I read mentions the "ties" that he has to Thad Levine from his days in Texas. But how much of a factor is that really? Just because Levine was in the front office at the same time, does that really signify some sort of strong relationship he had with Darvish? I mean, were they golfing buddies, going out for sushi together, swapping wives or something else that might have created a strong bond? Otherwise, it doesn't seem to me that such a tenuous "link" will play any part in Darvish deciding to sign with the Twins or not. Any thoughts?

Most of the time, I think that's just an easy crutch by a writer.

 

But, I have to think that some percentage of the time it is true. Maybe one of Levine's main tasks was coordination with Japanese media. Maybe, in the same way that the MN Twins FO splits other MLB teams and player agents roughly evenly between Falvey, Levine, and Antony, Texas did the same thing and Levine has Darvish's agent.

Edited December 12, 2017 by amjgt

[Major League Ready]

 

For only 2 years of Gerrtt Cole?  I understand the dire need for pitching we have, but it would be Cole for two years and then he's gone.

 

Two questions: 

Do we really think we have a window now?

What do we think we have in Gordon?

 

Question 1 - I think the odds makers have answered this question or we could ask ourselves what we need to add to be competitive with Cleveland first and foremost because you don't go all in for a chance to get to a 50% chance of getting to a playoff series.  Then, we need to consider what we would need to be competitive with Houston, NY, and Boston.  If we are honest, we could gut our farm system and max out our payroll and bot get there unless a few of the players we already have make big steps forward.

 

Cole does nothing to position us for a playoff run so why give up inexpensive long-term assets for Cole?

 

Question 2 - I don't really know but if we are to let him go it should be part of a package for a player that enables us to better compete in the playoffs.   

[amjgt]

If we signed Darvish, then would you be ok with this trade?

[jimmer]

That window sure looks nicer with a guy like Cole in the rotation.

 

You want my honest opinion of Gordon. Average to slightly above defense with a modestly above average bat. That's a nice asset at SS. I think he can have several .750-.850 OPS type seasons as he hits his prime while playing good enough defense to stick at short. That's a nice piece. He wont' get there in season one, but he should get there. Do you think that is too much to ask? 2 years of a good, above average pitcher, for a two potential above average pieces in a 4th OF.

Not sure how I feel. I know I have never been high on Gordon (I hated it when we drafted him as high as we did and nothing has changed my mind) and it seems everytime I express my doubts about him, I am getting told I am wrong. But now we are okay with giving up 6 years of a guy thats been spouted to be an above average shortstop (a position of need for years and, if he is that, provides immense value) and Jay (another guy I didnt like from the beginning based on how high we drafted him and another guy I was knocked often for not liking) for two years of Cole?

 

Id want someone who we would have for longer than two years, especially if Jay and Gordon are going to be as good as so many said.

[Vanimal46]

Question 1 - I think the odds makers have answered this question or we could ask ourselves what we need to add to be competitive with Cleveland first and foremost because you don't go all in for a chance to get to a 50% chance of getting to a playoff series. Then, we need to consider what we would need to be competitive with Houston, NY, and Boston. If we are honest, we could gut our farm system and max out our payroll and bot get there unless a few of the players we already have make big steps forward.

 

Cole does nothing to position us for a playoff run so why give up inexpensive long-term assets for Cole?

 

Question 2 - I don't really know but if we are to let him go it should be part of a package for a player that enables us to better compete in the playoffs.

Uhh, what? Cole does nothing to position the Twins for a playoff run? He'd slot in at the top of the rotation, and probably start multiple games in a playoff series. I don't understand your argument.

[USAFChief]

 

Uhh, what? Cole does nothing to position the Twins for a playoff run? He'd slot in at the top of the rotation, and probably start multiple games in a playoff series. I don't understand your argument.

Not to mention the argument presented is circular anyway:

 

"We need pitching, but we don't have enough pitching to go out and get pitching."

[Squirrel]

 

Not saying 'don't continue discussing this here,' but this is also being discussed, with this same Twitter post, in a 'more specific' article here. Hard to keep the overlap from occurring in these types of articles.