Article: Official Winter Meetings Day 0 Thread

[big dog]

 

We are going to get scraps.  That's what we do.  The big dogs eat first.

big dog supports this message

[South Dakota Tom]

The very reason everyone is salivating over landing immediate help is the same reason the Twins have often been slow to do so.    This is often a time that large contracts get signed, and the players who remain become a much better bargain, either in terms of contracts or trading of prospects.   

 

While we may not love the idea of waiting, and plenty of criticism will be heaped upon the front office if they don't sign someone of substance in the next few days, the price for a player who is not snatched up this week could drop.    If that means the Rays start to panic a little, or Pirates, because the front line free agents and trades are made for starting pitching, maybe it saves us a prospect or two when we talk to them a week from now.

[Doomtints]

 

The very reason everyone is salivating over landing immediate help is the same reason the Twins have often been slow to do so.    This is often a time that large contracts get signed, and the players who remain become a much better bargain, either in terms of contracts or trading of prospects.   

 

While we may not love the idea of waiting, and plenty of criticism will be heaped upon the front office if they don't sign someone of substance in the next few days, the price for a player who is not snatched up this week could drop.    If that means the Rays start to panic a little, or Pirates, because the front line free agents and trades are made for starting pitching, maybe it saves us a prospect or two when we talk to them a week from now.

 

The price drops because they were always worth less. The agents knew it, the player knew it, and the teams knew it.  

As jimmer aptly put it above, the big dogs eat first. The weaker predators get the scraps.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Doomtints

[ashbury]

The very reason everyone is salivating over landing immediate help is the same reason the Twins have often been slow to do so.    This is often a time that large contracts get signed, and the players who remain become a much better bargain, either in terms of contracts or trading of prospects.  

Assuming the demand doesn't still exceed the supply, in which case even the scraps cost more than they might have a few days/weeks earlier.

 

It's a game of musical chairs, one chair and one contestant removed at each step - except that some years there are more chairs than contestants, and other years there are more contestants than chairs. Which contestant, or which chair, will end up left out at the end?

[spinowner]

 

A question I've been asking myself lately is, what prospects can we give up in a trade that won't come back to bite us late (i.e. future lack of pitching depth, current bullpen struggles)

A good GM will make nobody completely untouchable. Of course it depends on the offer.

[howieramone2]

There is no advantage to being the first team making a deal, nor any disadvantage to the team making the last deal. Santana and Castro are two of the best free agent pickups in team history, but feel free to refer to them as scrapes. I assume we will be hearing a great deal from the chronically impatient, but then again, I expect a handful of members are capable of waiting for the fat lady to sing.

[USAFChief]

 

There is no advantage to being the first team making a deal, nor any disadvantage to the team making the last deal. Santana and Castro are two of the best free agent pickups in team history, but feel free to refer to them as scrapes. I assume we will be hearing a great deal from the chronically impatient, but then again, I expect a handful of members are capable of waiting for the fat lady to sing.

Castro was signed Nov 30, Santana Dec 15.

[The Wise One]

 

Castro was signed Nov 30, Santana Dec 15.

By November 30 the Big Dog had scooped up the big catcher catch in the FA market. The sarcasto meter shows that Drew Butera had been already scooped up by mighty and powerful Royals 

[jimmer]

Wait, Castro was a big signing?

 

Anyway, when I say the big dogs eat first, I meant when it comes to the quality of players. I cant imagine we get a player like Darvish. It never even occured to me we would get Ohtani. We shop in the Cobb/Lynn type bins. They arent exactly top notch guys, but those guys we can afford to overpay to get while still not being too big of a contract by todays standards.

Edited December 11, 2017 by jimmer

[The Wise One]

 

I kinda agree, though I wouldn't say that Royce is the only untouchable. I'm guessing that the arms that just got added to the 40-man roster (Gonsalves, Thorpe and Little) along with Romero are probably going to be hard to part with. There is not a whole lot of upside on this staff at the moment and it would hurt to see any chance of that disappearing.

If the Angels, after the contract was signed, had buyers remorse and wanted to trade Ohtani straight up for Lewis ........

With the right deal no one is untouchable,   The question should be does what you get back help you now and for how long.

Trading Thorpe as an example, could bite you on any given day. That is only a problem if what you traded him for turns out to be the second coming of Ricky Nolasco rather than Robbie Ray

[bird]

 

Wait, Castro was a big signing?

 

Second only to Butera we're told. So kinda big, yeah.

[jimmer]

Second only to Butera we're told. So kinda big, yeah.

it was,monetarily, not a big FA signing.

[Vanimal46]

Here are their stats (the best in all is in bold.)  As far age goes, other than Reed everyone else is 31-33

 

Morrow: 2.06 ERA, 1.55 FIP, 0.92 WHIP/.288 BABIP, 29.4 K%, 24.1 K-BB%,  97.7 mph FB

Davis: 2.30 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.14 WHIP/.262 BABIP, 32.6 K%, 21.1 K-BB%,   94.3 mph FB

Holland: 3.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.15 WHIP/.252 BABIP, 29.8 K%, 18.7 K-BB% , 93.5 mph FB

Reed: 2.84 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.05 WHIP/.266 BABIP, 24.8 K%, 19.9 K-BB%,  92.3 mph FB

Shaw: 3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.21 WHIP/.311 BABIP, 23.4 K%, 16.3 K-BB%,   95.0 mph FB

McGee: 3.61 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.10 WHIP/2.87 BABIP, 25.3 K%, 18.3 K-BB%,  93.5 mph FB

 

I said that he was "probably" the best FA reliever available, but if you put the numbers down, it is not even close...

After looking at this chart you put together, thanks for that, I'm still very interested in several names. All of them would be great, but we can already rule out Davis for being too expensive.

 

Holland in his 2nd year post TJS is especially intriguing IMO. I wanted him last year, and nothing has changed from my interest level.

 

I really like Shaw as well. He throws heat, has 5 straight years of 70+ appearances, and to use one of Gardy's favorite words, proven. It also doesn't hurt taking talent from an AL Central opponent.

[The Wise One]

 

Wait, Castro was a big signing?

Anyway, when I say the big dogs eat first, I meant when it comes to the quality of players. I cant imagine we get a player like Darvish. It never even occured to me we would get Ohtani. We shop in the Cobb/Lynn type bins. They arent exactly top notch guys, but those guys we can afford to overpay to get while still not being too big of a contract by todays standards.

When looking at qualified pitchers over the last 6 seasons, Lynn and Cobb are in the top 50 for FIP. That is just too poor of pitcher to pitch for the Twins

[purppride1]

 

Nope Dozier. He is going into the last year of his contract. Mets have pitching and Polanco needs to play second.

 

I heard the Mets are dangling Harvey for a good reliever. We don't have that to offer, but I like the idea of Dozier for Harvey and an upside "A" arm (or one of their numerous better rated arms coming off injury, just something to mitigate the risk that comes with Harvey)

[nicksaviking]

When looking at qualified pitchers over the last 6 seasons, Lynn and Cobb are in the top 50 for FIP. That is just too poor of pitcher to pitch for the Twins

They are too poor if your current "ace" is 120th during that time period.*

 

I don't think many teams will go very far in the playoffs when they have to classify thier #1 as "top 50" in anything.

 

*Even as a Santana denier, I was pretty surprised I had to go all the way to the bottom of page four to find him in starter FIP during that range.

[Vanimal46]

I heard the Mets are dangling Harvey for a good reliever. We don't have that to offer, but I like the idea of Dozier for Harvey and an upside "A" arm (or one of their numerous better rated arms coming off injury, just something to mitigate the risk that comes with Harvey)

Harvey's trade value isn't nearly as high as you may think. Gunnarthor posted in the Offseason Rumors thread that Harvey for Profar is being discussed per John Heyman on twitter.

 

Harvey's a shell of his former self. I will be quite upset trading Dozier for someone like him.

[cmoss84]

The only way I want to trade Dozier to the Mets is if we make a package for DeGrom. Dozier/Gonsalves/Gordon. But not going to happen. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I heard the Mets are dangling Harvey for a good reliever. We don't have that to offer, but I like the idea of Dozier for Harvey and an upside "A" arm (or one of their numerous better rated arms coming off injury, just something to mitigate the risk that comes with Harvey)

 

Harvey hasn't pitched well in a few seasons. I think I'd want a bit more of a sure thing if I'm swapping Dozier on a 1 year deal for a pitcher on a 1 year deal.

[dgwills]

 

Harvey hasn't pitched well in a few seasons. I think I'd want a bit more of a sure thing if I'm swapping Dozier on a 1 year deal for a pitcher on a 1 year deal.

At this point Dozier has more value to the Twin's than anyone else. If we don't need him in 2019 then we can just take the comp pick. So, I agree with you. I'm just not going out of my way to trade Dozier. If someone wants to make an offer we can't refuse, then fine. Go for it.

[bird]

 

it was,monetarily, not a big FA signing.

 

 

Note to self: remember to hit the joke button...

[jorgenswest]

When looking at qualified pitchers over the last 6 seasons, Lynn and Cobb are in the top 50 for FIP. That is just too poor of pitcher to pitch for the Twins

... and if you go back to 2015 both Cobb and Lynn have xFIPs ranked below Kyle Gibson over the last 3 years. Yes. They had serious injuries but that shouldn’t be a plus. What is the likelihood they return to their form of 2012-2014? There might be a few front offices seriously concerned about committing to 4 years of their decline.

[amjgt]

The price drops because they were always worth less. The agents knew it, the player knew it, and the teams knew it.

 

As jimmer aptly put it above, the big dogs eat first. The weaker predators get the scraps.

And yet, someone who signed a minor league deal last offseason, has just been declared the best FA reliever of this class

[kydoty]

Marlins are shopping Ozuna and Yelich as well.

 

I mean, Jeets is probably just looking to dump salary again. And a guy with a 5.8 WAR and two more years of control would look nice in the middle of the lineup. Just saying...

[jimmer]

 

Marlins are shopping Ozuna and Yelich as well.

I mean, Jeets is probably just looking to dump salary again. And a guy with a 5.8 WAR and two more years of control would look nice in the middle of the lineup. Just saying...

I really like Yelich, who comes with 5 years of control.

Edited December 12, 2017 by jimmer

[diehardtwinsfan]

small nugget in mlbtr... Twins are one of 6 teams in on Archer.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/chris-archer-drawing-plenty-of-interest.html

[purppride1]

 

Harvey hasn't pitched well in a few seasons. I think I'd want a bit more of a sure thing if I'm swapping Dozier on a 1 year deal for a pitcher on a 1 year deal.

I totally agree. That's why I think they need to extract a good young arm from the Mets as well to make it happen. Change of scenery could help Harvey, but it's a risk. The upside is fantastic though, if he clears medical check, he's only 28. 

[Vanimal46]

Marlins are shopping Ozuna and Yelich as well.

 

I mean, Jeets is probably just looking to dump salary again. And a guy with a 5.8 WAR and two more years of control would look nice in the middle of the lineup. Just saying...

Shame on the MLB for allowing this ownership group to take over Miami. Nothing has changed from past ownership. There's really no excuse for Miami to act like a small market team.

[GP830]

Orioles are seeking two controllable young pitchers for one year of Machado. Would Gonsalves/Romero + Jorge get the job done?

[Mike Sixel]

Shame on the MLB for allowing this ownership group to take over Miami. Nothing has changed from past ownership. There's really no excuse for Miami to act like a small market team.

Two series titles ...... Yes, the interim was very bad.... But two titles.