Article: Official Winter Meetings Day 0 Thread

[Seth Stohs]

While most of the official Winter Meetings meetings don't start until Monday, baseball people from major league, minor leagues and independent leagues are traveling to Orlando, Florida today.

 

It's been a fairly quiet offseason so far, but the two big puzzle pieces that were holding things up have been resolved in the last 72 hours, so it should be a very busy Winter Meetings.

 

Please feel free to check this article out all day, and post any rumors that you may see or read or hear. There will be plenty of rumors, I'm sure.

 

If the Twins make any moves, Twins Daily will have an article on it within moments.Until the last couple of days, it's fair to say that the Hot Stove has been lukewarm at best. Then Shohei Otani made his decision to sign with the Angels. And on Saturday, the Marlins and Yankees agreed to a deal in which reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton will join Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in The Bronx.

 

So now, the Hot Stove is preheating. Things are lined up for this to be the busiest Winter Meetings in recent years. Or, we could be set up for disappointment and have to wait even longer.

 

Let's not forget that the Winter Meetings are set up to actually hold a lot of meetings. Many are with league officials. Some are to determine new rules, or to discuss topics like pace of game and more. While we as fans only want to hear about the meetings between GMs or between teams and agents, the Winter Meetings are much bigger than that.

 

The Twins offseason has been quiet in terms of transactions. Here's the quick rundown:

• 40-man roster decisions - Several players have been removed from the 40-man roster, and when they were, most were claimed. Niko Goodrum was outrighted, but he became a free agent and left to join the Tigers.
• In the last couple of weeks, the Twins have signed six or seven players to minor league contracts. The most exciting minor league signing to this point is catcher Bobby Wilson.

Probably the most exciting additions to the organization have been more additions to the front office. 27-year-old Jeremy Zoll comes to the Twins as their new minor league director. He's made several hires including a new minor league pitching coordinator (Paul Maki replacing Eric Rasmussen). They added Tanner Swanson as a minor league catching coordinator.

 

Brad Steil became the pro scouting director .He hired John Manuel from Baseball America. Former reliever Wesley Wright retired to join the Twins as a scout. There have been changes in the international scouting department.

 

And they have added several more front office types. Some we have read about. Some have gone under the radar.

 

And some more positions will continue to be added. The Winter Meetings also is a place where people can go to interview with teams for prospective jobs. Don't be surprised if we keep hearing about additions to the front office.

 

Also, we learned that Tommy Watkins will be the Chattanooga Lookouts manager in 2018. Toby Gardenhire will take over as the manager of the Cedar Rapids Kernels where coaches Brian Dinkelman will remain hitting coach and JP Martinez will remain pitching coach. At a minimum, they still need to hire a manager for the Rochester Red Wings (Mike Quade is taking a roving instructor position) and the Ft. Myers Miracle.

 

But let's be honest, we want to hear about player acquisitions, right? The Twins made one of the biggest turnarounds in MLB history in 2017. They went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 wins in 2017. Now the challenge is to find a way to bump that win total up to 92 or so in 2018.

 

So here's a quick reminder of what the Twins need...

 

1.) Starting Pitching

2.) Relief Pitching

3.) Pitching

...

...

...

8.) Maybe a right-handed bench bat

 

Will the Twins be active in the free agent market? Will they be more active in the trade market?

 

Likely the answer is Yes in both cases. I tend to think they'll be more active in the trade market as it relates to starting pitching, and I expect they'll be fairly active on the free agent market with relievers.

 

The asking prices at this point for starting pitchers, at least those top four options (Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb) are pretty much silly. But that's just money and a draft pick whereas a trade would cost multiple players.

 

As for the relievers, there are probably a dozen or more guys who will get three or four years at $7-9 million per year. Plenty of options.

 

So, will it be disappointing if the Twins don't make a couple of moves this week? Yes. But I think they will.

 

Will it mean they were not an active participant at the Winter Meetings if they don't finalize a deal? Not at all. I would suspect that they'll be one of the busier teams there in terms of meetings held.

 

As always, the Winter Meetings presents an opportunity for the meetings, while the actual transactions can take place in the coming weeks.

 

AL Central

 

The Royals are likely to lose free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas, or at least a couple of them. There are rumors that Danny Duffy is available. You' have to assume that Alex Gordon and probably Ian Kennedy are guys they'd love to trade, but there likely won't be much market for them. The Royals may be in full rebuild mode.

 

The White Sox acknowledged that they were rebuilding a year ago when they traded Adam Eaton and Chris Sale for a huge supply of top-end prospects. They continued that in-season with trades of David Robertson, Todd Frazier and Jose Quintana for more prospects. Is Jose Abreu on the market? Probably, and anyone else on that roster who costs more than a couple million dollars might be too.

 

The Tigers are an interesting group. They made some trades during the 2017 season, including getting rid of JD Martinez and Justin Verlander. Rumors are that teams are calling on Ian Kinsler. They likely want to continue to push a rebuild. Ron Gardenhire was hired as their manager. He stole Joe Vavra from the Twins and named him their quality control coach. Steve Liddle (bench coach) and Rick Anderson (bullpen coach) are also on his staff.

 

Cleveland got to Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. In 2017, they lost to the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. They have good starting pitchers. They have a strong bullpen. They've got a good offense. But Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw are free agents, and I would think they would want both back. They will likely remain busy.

 

Rule 5 Draft

 

Finally, the Rule 5 draft will take place on Thursday morning. The Twins have the potential to lose a couple of players. Nick Burdi and Jake Reed would seem most likely candidates to be lost while Luke Bard and Kohl Stewart could also be lost.

 

The Twins 40-man roster is still at 36, so they could add a player in the Rule 5 draftif they choose to.

 

 

Enjoy the week. Click refresh here at Twins Daily often. As noted, we'll be sure to post articles of any moves that the Twins make. Later, you can expect to learn more about any players and/or prospects that the Twins may acquire. If you haven't already registered, be sure to do so and add your thoughts to these articles and rumors.

 

Click here to view the article

[twinsfanstreif]

I have become more optimistic of the new Twins FO but as a seasoned Twins fan I am prepared to come away with something like Kintzler and a low to mid level starter if anything at all

[Linus]

The Mets are trying to find a second baseman. There's your first meeting Falvine.

[ashbury]

Click refresh here at Twins Daily often.

I have clicked refresh approximately 100 times since reading this post, and still no Darvish. Come on!

[Hollywood42]

Have faith, Twins fans. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bullpen signings before a potential bigger signing. Darvish is the guy we're all dreaming of, but a big signing will take some time, and we need bullpen help too. Front office has been great so far this offseason, looking forward to seeing what they can do 

[nater79a]

Darvish and Arrieta scare me some.  Those 5 and 6 year contracts have a way of biting you big time on the back end.  Would rather spend prospect currency on cost-controllable starters like Cole, Archer, Duffy,etc...  Use free agency to shore up the bullpen.

[Shane Wahl]

 

The Mets are trying to find a second baseman. There's your first meeting Falvine.

 

For what, though? Cecchini and . . . 

[Hollywood42]

 

The Mets are trying to find a second baseman. There's your first meeting Falvine.

 

We're a playoff team again so you trade one of our best position players and top clubhouse leaders? No...

[Mr. Brooks]

We're a playoff team again so you trade one of our best position players and top clubhouse leaders? No...

Maybe he meant Polanco...

[Craig Arko]

In Orlando this week, too. Will see what I can get done. Hopefully alcohol is involved.

[Seth Stohs]

Jeff Passan says Brandon Morrow to the Cubs for two years...

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Luke Gregorson to the Cardinals...

 

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

The Twins are in an interesting position. They won’t win their division, but there may not be much competition for the Wild Card.

 

They probably finish second in the AL Central this year and there is such a gap between them and Cleveland that, to beat them, they would probably have to sign Darvish, Arrieta and a couple of good relievers, and even then a lot would have to go better than right. Houston and the Yankees look formidable, especially over the course of the season, and Boston should be good. Therefore, the Twins are playing for the Wild Card this year, with competition from the Angels and possibly Seattle.

 

Any acquisitions should be with the goal of winning the Wild Card game and giving a good shot at winning a playoff series, instead of trying to build a steamroller. Some of the players for this goal may be acquired at mid-season.

 

Next year, Cleveland will be weaker, Houston’s players will be getting more expensive, and Stanton will be a year closer to 30, while the Twins’ young talent will be closer to their primes, with hopefully more experience among the young pitchers like Gonsalves. That will be the year that a major acquisition could put them over the top.

[drjim]

The Twins are in an interesting position. They won’t win their division, but there may not be much competition for the Wild Card.

 

They probably finish second in the AL Central this year and there is such a gap between them and Cleveland that, to beat them, they would probably have to sign Darvish, Arrieta and a couple of good relievers, and even then a lot would have to go better than right. Houston and the Yankees look formidable, especially over the course of the season, and Boston should be good. Therefore, the Twins are playing for the Wild Card this year, with competition from the Angels and possibly Seattle.

 

Any acquisitions should be with the goal of winning the Wild Card game and giving a good shot at winning a playoff series, instead of trying to build a steamroller. Some of the players for this goal may be acquired at mid-season.

 

Next year, Cleveland will be weaker, Houston’s players will be getting more expensive, and Stanton will be a year closer to 30, while the Twins’ young talent will be closer to their primes, with hopefully more experience among the young pitchers like Gonsalves. That will be the year that a major acquisition could put them over the top.

Lots of competition for the wild card. Even an optimistic look at the Twins has them outside looking in right now behind Yankees, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Angels.

 

They need to get to work.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Lots of competition for the wild card. Even an optimistic look at the Twins has them outside looking in right now behind Yankees, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Angels.

They need to get to work.

Cleveland?  Wild Card??

[Linus]

Maybe he meant Polanco...

Nope Dozier. He is going into the last year of his contract. Mets have pitching and Polanco needs to play second.

[USAFChief]

Cleveland?  Wild Card??

Not to speak for drjim, but I assume he listed the five teams he assumes make the postseason, including division winners. Hence both Boston and New York listed, as well as Houston and LAA.

 

There are five spots, and technically div winners are also WC competition.

[tvagle]

Call me overly optimistic but I certainly hope that the big whiteboard of goals has more on it than:

 

1) Play for 2019...make decisions that don't mess up the big chance we'll have in '19

 

After last season's improvement, only thing I'd think they'd be saying is how do we get to 92 wins

 

I agree with Jim, there are all sorts of teams that will be in play for the Wild Card/Playoff Spots...there are only 5 spots available so...Houston, NYY, Cleveland, Boston, LAA, Minnesota plus whoever over-achieves makes for no cake walk to the WC

 

Gotta keep pushing forward!

 

Lavelle tweets Twins have arrived...hope they didn't start with "What'd we miss?"

[minnesquatcha]

A question I've been asking myself lately is, what prospects can we give up in a trade that won't come back to bite us late (i.e. future lack of pitching depth, current bullpen struggles)

[Thrylos]

 

Jeff Passan says Brandon Morrow to the Cubs for two years...

 

 

That hurts.  Probably the best reliever FA available.

[jimmer]

 

That hurts.  Probably the best reliever FA available.

We are going to get scraps.  That's what we do.  The big dogs eat first.

[drjim]

A question I've been asking myself lately is, what prospects can we give up in a trade that won't come back to bite us late (i.e. future lack of pitching depth, current bullpen struggles)

I would say Royce Lewis is the only one they might really regret. And I probably wouldn't trade Wander Javier considering his current value.

 

Otherwise everyone else should be on the table.

[Baseball Bat]

 

That hurts.  Probably the best reliever FA available.

 

 

I would argue with this a litte. Davis, Holland, Reed are all superior and younger than Morrow, who is 33. You could also make a case for others like Shaw, McGee, etc.

[minnesquatcha]

I would say Royce Lewis is the only one they might really regret. And I probably wouldn't trade Wander Javier considering his current value.

 

Otherwise everyone else should be on the table.

I kinda agree, though I wouldn't say that Royce is the only untouchable. I'm guessing that the arms that just got added to the 40-man roster (Gonsalves, Thorpe and Little) along with Romero are probably going to be hard to part with. There is not a whole lot of upside on this staff at the moment and it would hurt to see any chance of that disappearing.

[Thrylos]

 

I would argue with this a litte. Davis, Holland, Reed are all superior and younger than Morrow, who is 33. You could also make a case for others like Shaw, McGee, etc.

 

Here are their stats (the best in all is in bold.)  As far age goes, other than Reed everyone else is 31-33

 

Morrow: 2.06 ERA, 1.55 FIP, 0.92 WHIP/.288 BABIP, 29.4 K%, 24.1 K-BB%,  97.7 mph FB
Davis: 2.30 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.14 WHIP/.262 BABIP, 32.6 K%, 21.1 K-BB%,   94.3 mph FB
Holland: 3.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.15 WHIP/.252 BABIP, 29.8 K%, 18.7 K-BB% , 93.5 mph FB
Reed: 2.84 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.05 WHIP/.266 BABIP, 24.8 K%, 19.9 K-BB%,  92.3 mph FB
Shaw: 3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.21 WHIP/.311 BABIP, 23.4 K%, 16.3 K-BB%,   95.0 mph FB
McGee: 3.61 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.10 WHIP/2.87 BABIP, 25.3 K%, 18.3 K-BB%,  93.5 mph FB

 

I said that he was "probably" the best FA reliever available, but if you put the numbers down, it is not even close...

Edited December 10, 2017 by Thrylos

[Baseball Bat]

 

Here are their stats (the best in all is in bold.)  As far age goes, other than Reed everyone else is 31-33

 

Morrow: 2.06 ERA, 1.55 FIP, 0.92 WHIP/.288 BABIP, 29.4 K%, 24.1 K-BB%,  97.7 mph FB
Davis: 2.30 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.14 WHIP/.262 BABIP, 32.6 K%, 21.1 K-BB%,   94.3 mph FB
Holland: 3.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.15 WHIP/.252 BABIP, 29.8 K%, 18.7 K-BB% , 93.5 mph FB
Reed: 2.84 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.05 WHIP/.266 BABIP, 24.8 K%, 19.9 K-BB%,  92.3 mph FB
Shaw: 3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.21 WHIP/.311 BABIP, 23.4 K%, 16.3 K-BB%,   95.0 mph FB
McGee: 3.61 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.10 WHIP/2.87 BABIP, 25.3 K%, 18.3 K-BB%,  93.5 mph FB

 

I said that he was "probably" the best FA reliever available, but if you put the numbers down, it is not even close...

Yeah but track record matters. He is often injured and you the only full season he had where he was both successful and healthy was 2017. The 5 guys I mentioned have all had sustained success for more than one season. There is a reason last season he signed a Minor League deal with the Dodgers.

[Deduno Abides]

Lots of competition for the wild card. Even an optimistic look at the Twins has them outside looking in right now behind Yankees, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Angels.

They need to get to work.

Only one other team gets to play a lot of games against KC, Chicago and Detroit. Advantage Twins.

[jud6312]

How did I miss that 'Lil Gardy got promoted? He must really get after it as a coach.

 

[jud6312]

 

Have faith, Twins fans. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bullpen signings before a potential bigger signing. Darvish is the guy we're all dreaming of, but a big signing will take some time, and we need bullpen help too. Front office has been great so far this offseason, looking forward to seeing what they can do 

I'm not as worried about them over the long haul as I was, but what exactly have they done so far this offseason that earns them a "great"?

[beckmt]

Don't forget that the Mariners are still playing for either the division or the wild card.  It is time to move some prospect chips into the table before all the big dogs get going.  There are going to be a few fire sales this winter.  Let's get the prime and not the scraps from these teams (Tampa and Kansas City now), probably Toronto , Baltimore and either the Rangers, Mariners, or Angels later.  Stanton to the Yankees really changed the landscape and Twins need to decide direction now.  Next winter will be too late.