Article: Reviewing Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect Rankings

[nater79a]

 

I expect there is another Buxton/Sano/Berrios in this group (other than Royce Lewis), Seth, we just don't know who.

 

And I see this as a special group in part because 10% (5 players) have already made it to the majors.  For 90% to not make it would mean that no other player from this list ever plays in the majors.  I would think it is more like 60%-70% won't make it...which makes this group special in my mind.

 

Personally, I would put Moya ahead of Burdi as there are to many questions related to Burdi's health versus Moya having already pitched for the Twins including some important innings

 

Yeah, 30-35% that "make it" to the major leagues sounds about right.  But 10-15% of that are guys that stick and are contributors for multiple years.. Players like Dozier, Rosario, Gibson, etc...   The rest are guys like Logan Darnell, Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean... technically they made it but then end up bouncing around the minor leagues or overseas.

 

[Thrylos]

I am still waiting for the smoke to clear before I start mine (just because of things that happened this week and will happen the next), but I see a really big omission here:  Rainis Silva.  The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.  Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.  Something definitely clicked.  I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, you are missing Chargois as well   )  so Garver is out.  Pending further research of Banuelos and transactions, Silva would be my highest rated C.  Has been hovering between 20-30 or so in my lists for a while and definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

The one thing that is certain is that the Twins system is much better this year than last, despite not having many "flashy" prospects.  I think that the top 20 or so will have a good chance of making it to the majors (and I mean from my list that does not include the ones who did,) which is more than most systems can claim.   And Falvine are not done yet.  I hope.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Thrylos

[jsteve96]

 

I try not to get too exercised over the ordering on these rankings, but like others, I'm trying to get a feeling for the recent pickups, and I just don't see them being as good as indicated by these rankings.  I'm not putting any weight on a short season performance, we see a lot of guys look completely different in their second year vs their debut.  But from what I've gathered about Pearson and Banuelos they just don't seem like top 20 prospects in this system even though they were much more highly rated in other shallower systems.

 

My baseline for Pearson is Leach.  Pearson was rated slightly above Leach on most pre-draft boards, but he ended up slipping to 85 (right around where Leach was rated).  He signed overslot for around 63rd pick value.  But Leach was picked at 37th and signed for about 49th value.  I don't pretend to have special knowledge about either of these guys, but at the very least this tells me that they are in similar tiers, and that the Twins FO actually likes Leach a significant amount more.  And I don't see anything in their debuts to indicate that they've significantly diverged yet.  I'm sure you could find scouts that like Pearson better but I'm having trouble believing that you could find one who would say he's clearly a better prospect.

 

I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken.  It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them.  But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.

This is true, good take.

[jsteve96]

 

The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.  Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.  Something definitely clicked.  I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

 

Who said Kirriloff is too high?? just bc he had TJ surgery? was Appy league player of the year..

Hope you're right with Silva.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Of the 50, 12 are new to the organization since the last ranking (all of them in the top 40, by the way). Two questions:

• How does 12 compare to other years? Is our perception that the new guys have brought more talent into the organization accurate?  
• What's the status of the 12 from last year?

 

 

12 feels a little bit high, but I'd have to go back and look. I mean, this was a really good draft for the Twins... The international money deals were unusual to this year because of the Braves situation. There were several other trades... And there were a few guys who really stepped up. 

 

But like I said somewhere... the difference between, say, 41 and 70 is all about opinion.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I am still waiting for the smoke to clear before I start mine (just because of things that happened this week and will happen the next), but I see a really big omission here:  Rainis Silva.  The guy has always been the top defensive and game calling catcher in the system but could not hit his way out of a paper bag and was pushed to Cedar Rapids last season because of his game calling and D and got a .551 OPS.  Back to EST and extensive work in his hitting and to Etown this season he hit .356/.446/.446.  Something definitely clicked.  I am doing my prospect lists a bit different (i.e. if someone has played in the majors, has graduated from my list - btw, you are missing Chargois as well   )  so Garver is out.  Pending further research of Banuelos and transactions, Silva would be my highest rated C.  Has been hovering between 20-30 or so in my lists for a while and definitely will shoot up at top 15-20 or so.

 

Kirriloff is way way way too high, but that has already been discussed.

Interestingly enough, I think that that guy who dropped the most in your list (Jay) will likely be the guy who did so in mine as well.

 

The one thing that is certain is that the Twins system is much better this year than last, despite not having many "flashy" prospects.  I think that the top 20 or so will have a good chance of making it to the majors (and I mean from my list that does not include the ones who did,) which is more than most systems can claim.   And Falvine are not done yet.  I hope.

 

While Thrylos and I often disagree... when it comes to prospect rankings, that's the beauty of them. I don't expect anyone to agree 100% with my rankings. 

 

I've seen players in Cedar Rapids every year. I've been at spring training and hung out a lot on the minor league fields something like 4 of the last 5 years or something. Thrylos gets to Red Wings games in Lehigh Valley. And, I know he's been in Ft. Myers for spring training too. 

 

I think he and I have both been on the minor league side at the same time... He may see Player X do something and start paying more and more attention to him. I may be over on another field at that time and see another player do something and my opinion of him goes up or down a little. 

 

To me, that's what makes these lists fun.He really likes Rainis Silva, has for years. I am higher on Kirilloff than he is. There are (gasp) probably a lot more players that we have similar opinions on. It's all good. 

[gman]

Lots of potential here. With most of these players more than 1 year away, it will be interesting to see if the recent changes to system admin, coaches and I presume processes bring out a higher return on the minor league system than we have been used to seeing. When I look as this list, I have a hard time not trying to squeeze 30 players into the top 20 slots. 

[Brandon]

Seth, Where would Severino rank? And did we move back to a top 10 farm system with these new prospects?

[terrydactyls]

I have a curiousity question. I heard Stephan Gonsalves mentioned on MLB radio but the "expert" pronounced his last name as Gonzales. Is that correct? I have not heard anyone in the Twins organization verbally say his name so I don't know. And I now live in Maine where nothing is pronounced correctly so that doesn't help matters. Aye-yah?

[Otwins]

Will the newest signee - Severino make the list?

[amjgt]

I'd guess mid to high teens

[drjim]

I'd guess mid to high teens

Seems about right. Based on Seth's list, I'd have #16, and bump Pearson well behind him.

[amjgt]

I mean, if you go strictly on what they paid him, he should be around Enlow. Realistically, in an open market, as is the case with Intl free agents, you'll have to overpay a bit. So he's probably 4-5 spots worse than Enlow

Edited December 10, 2017 by amjgt

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, Where would Severino rank? And did we move back to a top 10 farm system with these new prospects?

 

I'm thinking he'd be just outside the top 10, similar ranking to Pearson, probably just ahead of him... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I have a curiousity question. I heard Stephan Gonsalves mentioned on MLB radio but the "expert" pronounced his last name as Gonzales. Is that correct? I have not heard anyone in the Twins organization verbally say his name so I don't know. And I now live in Maine where nothing is pronounced correctly so that doesn't help matters. Aye-yah?

 

It's Gone-Saul-Viss...

 

 

[twinstalker]

 

Twinstalker - Pearson is just out of high school, trying to adjust to the rigors of professional baseball, and you've already decided he will never get anything beyond a "cup of coffee?" That's harsh. Give him time to figure out how to be an adult before you throw him out with the bath water.

I absolutely love it when someone argues against something they wanted me to say instead of what I said.  "Why, yes, I've said it before and I'll say it again...Pearson will NEVER have more than a cup of coffee in MLB."  This, according to you, is what I said.  Thanks bunch.

 

Also, as far as potential goes, 80% (made up) of players have some sort of really high ceiling they'll never reach.  In Pearson's case, his potential if all goes right is said to be 20/20.  Again, in a vacuum, who would you take if you had to choose a player for the franchise you're starting, Zach Littell or Pearson?  I highly doubt more than a very small percentage would take Pearson.  I doubt Seth would, which is what I'm arguing.

[glunn]

 

Twinstalker - Pearson is just out of high school, trying to adjust to the rigors of professional baseball, and you've already decided he will never get anything beyond a "cup of coffee?" That's harsh. Give him time to figure out how to be an adult before you throw him out with the bath water.

What he said was ".It's likely he'll never have more than a cup of coffee.." [emphasis added]

 

[Deduno Abides]

In one sense, the most interesting players this year are Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Rooker, Thorpe, Littell, Jay and Stewart, because they each could play a significant role on the 2019 team. Granite, Slegers and Garver will likely be on that team, also, but their impact may be lesser. (Anything Jorge provides will be a pleasant surprise to me.) hopefully, May also gets ramped up in AAA. As a source of potential impact talent, Rochester is going to be bigger than it has in years.

[Thrylos]

 

I have a curiousity question. I heard Stephan Gonsalves mentioned on MLB radio but the "expert" pronounced his last name as Gonzales. Is that correct? I have not heard anyone in the Twins organization verbally say his name so I don't know. And I now live in Maine where nothing is pronounced correctly so that doesn't help matters. Aye-yah?

 

Gonsalves is of Portuguese origin, Gonzales is of Spanish.  Different names from different origins.  Likely lazy expert, in the manner of Bert as far as finding out name pronunciations.

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

Gonsalves is of Portuguese origin, Gonzales is of Spanish.  Different names from different origins.  Likely lazy expert, in the manner of Bert as far as finding out name pronunciations.

Or a typo. Or an auto-correct. My home computer tried to correct Gonsalves to a 'more common' Gonzalez until I taught it otherwise.

[Mr. Brooks]

Or a typo. Or an auto-correct. My home computer tried to correct Gonsalves to a 'more common' Gonzalez until I taught it otherwise.

The radio auto-corrects now? Oh boy is technology passing me by!

[Squirrel]

The radio auto-corrects now? Oh boy is technology passing me by!

Oh, d’oh! Forgot where that started. I still don’t fault them overly much.

[bird]

 

See and I think he's ranked way too high. He seems like a 4th OF type to me - I don't see him ever being an average starter. With his lack of pop and average OBP skills, he's got to hit over .300 to be an offensive plus. I just don't really see that happening. If he hits .270, he's got to be an elite defensive CF. He's fine out there but not elite.

 

 

Yeah, I don't know much myself, but I find myself thinking of Granite more in the Tyner Maestro Shane Robinson Alex Pressly category.

[bird]

 

Who said Kirriloff is too high?? just bc he had TJ surgery? was Appy league player of the year..

Hope you're right with Silva.

 

 

Socialization issues.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My two cents, but a lot of guys on this list have a legit chance to be in the top 100 next year at this time. Yeah, there's no Buxton/Sano there right now, but I wouldn't write that off just yet. Most everyone in the top 10 (who aren't already in the top 100) if they make steps forward will get national love. Guys like Palacios, Littlel, Severino, Miranda, etc. could all be in that conversation too if things break right. It's a very deep system with lots of upside. Hopefully, we get some good answers to a lot of the question marks.

[jsteve96]

 

Socialization issues.

Birdwatcher