Article: One Year In, Rebuilt Twins Front Office Is Crushing It

[ThejacKmp]

 

Adding prospects instead of mlb takent last trade deadline was a blunder, and missing out on the top international talent this offseason shouldn't really be a cause for celebration.

They've done OK considering these circumstances, but this is some impressive spin.

 

Outside of trading legit prospects in the division for Justin Verlander, what addition was really going to make the Twins anything more than a team that loses in the division round? They traded marginal pieces that didn't hurt the Twins and resisted the urge to trade a Santana or Dozier who would likely have kept them from winning. Sometimes not making moves is a cause for celebration.

 

What international talent have they missed out on? Marte had a vision problem and they made the smart choice to void that, especially since Ohtani's situation let them turn that into two young prospects. If we're mad because they didn't get Ohtani we're mad that they aren't a West Coast team.

 

A lot of the criticism of Flavine seems pretty nitpicky. Some people just want to see the glass half empty.

[Loosey]

I agree completely with this article.  No, they haven't made a big splash yet that will get newspaper headlines, but the little things they have been able to accomplish are great. They seem to have a way of taking advantage of little things the previous regime paid little attention too.  

 

The other thing I like about these guys is they are ready to pivot at any time.  At the trade deadline they weren't afraid to switch back and forth from seller to buyer to seller.  And now with Ohtani they had a plan in place for if they were told no by him.  They wasted no time and put their plan into action to acquire targets they wanted.  

 

It is the little things and decisiveness that may make this FO special.  

 

Using a Wayne Gretzky analogy, he knew where to be at all times and could anticipate where the puck was going to be well before it got there.  Falvey and Levine seem to have this sort of sense in regards to personnel.  They are getting themselves in position to make great gains by knowing what is going to happen before it happens and sensing what the market bears.  I'm excited for what they will do when they are given the opportunity to really spend.

[drjim]

Outside of trading legit prospects in the division for Justin Verlander, what addition was really going to make the Twins anything more than a team that loses in the division round? They traded marginal pieces that didn't hurt the Twins and resisted the urge to trade a Santana or Dozier who would likely have kept them from winning. Sometimes not making moves is a cause for celebration.

 

What international talent have they missed out on? Marte had a vision problem and they made the smart choice to void that, especially since Ohtani's situation let them turn that into two young prospects. If we're mad because they didn't get Ohtani we're mad that they aren't a West Coast team.

 

A lot of the criticism of Flavine seems pretty nitpicky. Some people just want to see the glass half empty.

Two specific moves they could have made would have been adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever. Could have had a different result against the Yanks. And next round who knows.

 

I really don't see myself as half empty, but I also won't accept crusing it either. They've done ok, considering the deadline blunder and the circumstances with international money this offseason.

 

One thing that was conveniently not mentioned in the prospect additions is that the Twins may have also traded away the second best prospect of group. It wasn't just moving money.

[jimmer]

I, personally, have actually been mostly happy with what the new FO has done. IMO, they have certainly made steps in the right direction. Keeping Molitor, for another example.

[gunnarthor]

 

One thing that was conveniently not mentioned in the prospect additions is that the Twins may have also traded away the second best prospect of group. It wasn't just moving money.

Did I miss a trade?

[drjim]

Did I miss a trade?

Ynoa. I would take him ahead of Enns and probably the two guys added for international space. But I guess on second look I'd take Watson.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Adding prospects instead of mlb takent last trade deadline was a blunder, and missing out on the top international talent this offseason shouldn't really be a cause for celebration.

They've done OK considering these circumstances, but this is some impressive spin.

I dunno man. Claiming that this is spin, when you're somehow portraying their deadline decisions as a "blunder," is something else. It didn't look like one at the moment and certainly doesn't look like one in hindsight. 

 

And while "missing out" on top international talent they've acquired players who are arguably better prospects than any available (sans Ohtani), and certainly better fits for the team's needs. 

 

They've actually done phenomenally well considering the circumstances. Leveraging teams against one another while they're all angling for Ohtani? (Granted, this required some help from his side because clearly he's making all these teams believe they're in it, and urging them to build up cap space to strengthen their cases.)

 

 

Forgot the John Ryan Murphy for Gabriel Moya trade. Could be a good one as well.

Yes, forgot to mention this. But another great example of making something out of nothing. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

However, all the moves Nick sites - the draft, the trade-deadline deals, the recent moves with the international bonus money - are all moves that I would expect any reasonably competent front office to make. And if you look around the league, I think the vast majority of teams have front offices that are making the equivalent moves given their circumstances.

What evidence do we have that other teams would've made the same moves in this case? Are there examples of any team making moves like this -- where they traded solely international cap space to acquire legitimate young prospects? Honest question. I have never seen it before so that's a dubious assertion to me.

[jimmer]

 

.  

 

The other thing I like about these guys is they are ready to pivot at any time.  At the trade deadline they weren't afraid to switch back and forth from seller to buyer to seller.  

Yes, I like that they are willing to do that as well.  

 

Overall,  they have a new way of doing things and seem to be in touch with a more modern approach.  I'm glad to see the change.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Two specific moves they could have made would have been adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever. Could have had a different result against the Yanks. And next round who knows.

Do you really believe this? The Twins were not built to make a championship run this year. Another bat and relief pitcher weren't getting them past the Yankees, and certainly not past anyone else.

 

If they made the moves you suggested they likely end up with the same result, and they're in worse shape today. I don't even see how this is debatable. 

[drjim]

I dunno man. Claiming that this is spin, when you're somehow portraying their deadline decisions as a "blunder," is something else. It didn't look like one at the moment and certainly doesn't look like one in hindsight.

 

And while "missing out" on top international talent they've acquired players who are arguably better prospects than any available (sans Ohtani), and certainly better fits for the team's needs.

 

They've actually done phenomenally well considering the circumstances. Leveraging teams against one another while they're all angling for Ohtani? (Granted, this required some help from his side because clearly he's making all these teams believe they're in it, and urging them to build up cap space to strengthen their cases.)

 

 

Yes, forgot to mention this. But another great example of making something out of nothing.

While I have never agreed, I would accept that trading assets at the deadline could be seen as the appropriate move. But in hindsight it is absolutely a blunder. It really does blow my mind that adding some marginal guys can make up for this as a hindsight analysis.

 

And phenomenal is really a stretch here. Adding a couple of depth pieces is certainly better than nothing, but there was talent out there that was worthwhile to pursue that they either passed on or missed out on.

[drjim]

Do you really believe this? The Twins were not built to make a championship run this year. Another bat and relief pitcher weren't getting them past the Yankees, and certainly not past anyone else.

 

If they made the moves you suggested they likely end up with the same result, and they're in worse shape today. I don't even see how this is debatable.

Of course I believe this. I don't think playoff spots can be taken for granted. Certainly it was a long shot, but they were there. Adding some marginal prospects doesn't make me feel better for taking less of a chance.

 

Imagine a veteran dh coming up in the first inning instead of Buxton, having extendes the luneup, and really blowing the game open.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree 100% with Nick.

 

Not nearly everyone agrees that the deadline moves were a "blunder", jim. I think they were great moves. Yet, you keep stating it as if it were fact.

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you really believe this? The Twins were not built to make a championship run this year. Another bat and relief pitcher weren't getting them past the Yankees, and certainly not past anyone else.

 

If they made the moves you suggested they likely end up with the same result, and they're in worse shape today. I don't even see how this is debatable. 

Nah, Twins could've won a one-game playoff and certainly could have taken a series from Cleveland. Sure, they would've been underdogs but (depending on the price) upgrading the roster would have been a worthwhile premise for the FO. 

 

In any event, the past is the past. The Twins window is currently open and it'll be interesting to see how Lavine deals with it.

[drjim]

I agree 100% with Nick.

 

Not nearly everyone agrees that the deadline moves were a "blunder", jim. I think they were great moves. Yet, you keep stating it as if it were fact.

It's fine, there's a lot of ignoring of facts going around these days.

 

I would add that the front office agrees it was a blunder (after the fact). They worked very hard in August to remedy it!

[drjim]

Nah, Twins could've won a one-game playoff and certainly could have taken a series from Cleveland. Sure, they would've been underdogs but (depending on the price) upgrading the roster would have been a worthwhile premise for the FO.

 

In any event, the past is the past. The Twins window is currently open and it'll be interesting to see how Lavine deals with it.

Ultimately I do agree with this. These are small mistakes that only impacted 2017. Big picture is the franchise is in really good shape going forward. I think the front office will likely do just fine, but I would like to see it first.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's fine, there's a lot of ignoring of facts going around these days.

 

I would add that the front office agrees it was a blunder (after the fact). They worked very hard in August to remedy it!

I highly doubt that the FO thinks those moves were a blunder. Do you have a source for that?

[Mr. Brooks]

Nah, Twins could've won a one-game playoff and certainly could have taken a series from Cleveland. Sure, they would've been underdogs but (depending on the price) upgrading the roster would have been a worthwhile premise for the FO.

 

In any event, the past is the past. The Twins window is currently open and it'll be interesting to see how Lavine deals with it.

Maybe they could beat Cleveland, in the sense that any team could beat any other team in a series, if they get lucky. But, should they really be making decisions based on that?

[jimmer]

 

I agree 100% with Nick.

Not nearly everyone agrees that the deadline moves were a "blunder", jim. I think they were great moves. Yet, you keep stating it as if it were fact.

Yeah, I didn't want them buying at the deadline.  I thought they should have clearly been in sell mode.  Just cause they ended up going on a really good run while teams ahead of them ended up crashing doesn't change that opinion.  At the deadline, with like a 5% chance of making the playoffs, buying would have been a mistake.   Also, no one knows if getting help would have made things better or worse.  They made the moves they did and we ended up bucking the odds and getting in. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by jimmer

[dbminn]

I agree with Nick - the FO has shown savvy and independent thinking in their acquisitions so far. The real proof comes in the next couple of years.

• They will have payroll flexibility and organizational depth. I have no doubt that more substantial moves are coming in the next two years. The debate between "win now" and "keep churning to the future" will be answered.
• They have their own people installed as key mlb coaches - Rowson, Pickler and Alston. They are going to be critical to the progress of the young core.
• They have restructured the minor league organization. Let's see if they can develop players like St. Louis, Houston and the Yanks. 

It's going to be interesting. 

[Monkeypaws]

I look at yesterday's deals as adding depth to an already good looking draft class. 

 

The core of every great Twins team came up through the system. A key trade or two, and free agent here or there rounds out the mix, but these are rarely high profile adds.

 

Building up the system is the best recipe for long-term success. 

 

Through that lens, the FO is doing quite well.

[drjim]

I highly doubt that the FO thinks those moves were a blunder. Do you have a source for that?

Just their quotes and interviews in the weeks that follow.

 

Obviously they aren't going to go on record and say they screwed up, but they were actively trying to add in August and saying the team played better than they thought it would.

[jimmer]

 

Just their quotes and interviews in the weeks that follow.

Obviously they aren't going to go on record and say they screwed up, but they were actively trying to add in August and saying the team played better than they thought it would.

The fact that the they were surprised the team ended up going on that run after playing sub.500 ball over the previous two months, doesn't mean that, at the deadline, they made the wrong call (or that they themselves even think they did).

[SF Twins Fan]

 

While I have never agreed, I would accept that trading assets at the deadline could be seen as the appropriate move. But in hindsight it is absolutely a blunder. It really does blow my mind that adding some marginal guys can make up for this as a hindsight analysis.

And phenomenal is really a stretch here. Adding a couple of depth pieces is certainly better than nothing, but there was talent out there that was worthwhile to pursue that they either passed on or missed out on.

 

 

Can you give some examples? All of your posts have stated the Twins have missed out on international talent. What talent are you talking about? Ohtani wants to be on the West Coast, so there really wasn't anything the Twins could do there. The Twins offered more money to Kevin Maitan but he signed with the Angels because the Twins have 3 or 4 legit prospects at SS in the minors. Again, not something the Twins could do there. What other international prospects that are "great" have the Twins missed on?

[Mr. Brooks]

Just their quotes and interviews in the weeks that follow.

 

Obviously they aren't going to go on record and say they screwed up, but they were actively trying to add in August and saying the team played better than they thought it would.

Neither of those things suggest that they thought the deadline moves were a blunder.

The Twins playoff chances improved in August.

 

The team playing better than they thought they would doesn't make their deadline moves a blunder.

A blunder would be knowing they would play that well, and still selling.

I want them making decisions based on what they know and think at the time they make the decision. Not trying to predict that a 20:1 lingshot will come through.

 

There was also a lot of talk about the team being motivated by the decision to sell, so they might not have even made the playoffs if not for the decisions they made.

[Rosterman]

You have two guys who will be working together towards a common goal, building a championship team.

 

They still have to sort out the front office, some organizational coaches and such.

 

Looks like they are taking a hard look at the minors. Will be a tell if the upper rosters are full more of prospects than minor league free agents going forth.

 

They still have to field a team and try to be as competitive as possible, and that will still create some roster changes going forth, and you can't fell a team 40-man with prospects going forth from a WIld Card, especially when the reality is that the team, as a whole, is still young.

 

The big question is always money. Is there a dollar figure they are constrained by in the process of adding players? Can they write of contracts or even fail in a signing, but still have funds.

 

As long as the Twins do win, the revenue stream is solid.

 

They should be able to play with the big boys and push towards $140-150 million if the front office will gamble. The 55% operating expenses rule changes once the team hits around $190 in revenue.

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Two specific moves they could have made would have been adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever. Could have had a different result against the Yanks. And next round who knows.
 

 

The relievers were just fine in that game it was Santana and Berrios that gave up seven runs in five innings. Adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever wouldn't have helped, they needed a front of the rotation starter, and unless it was truly possibly to get Justin Verlander to waive his no trade clause to go to Minnesota when he knew that he could go to a better spot in Houston, there didn't appear to be any options for the Twins.

 

Early exits will continue to happen if the team doesn't significantly beef up the front of the rotation. If they don't do it this off season I'm going to be disappointed, but it did not appear possible to do what was necessary last July to actually win a championship.

[drjim]

The fact that the they were surprised the team ended up going on that run after playing sub.500 ball over the previous two months, doesn't mean that, at the deadline, they made the wrong call (or that they themselves even think they did).

I would agree that at the time they thought they made the right call. I would hope that's the case!

 

But subsequent events, which could have been foreseen and were actually predicted on this very site (such as the schedule becoming easier and other teams slipping), showed that they blundered.

[gunnarthor]

 

The relievers were just fine in that game it was Santana and Berrios that gave up seven runs in five innings. Adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever wouldn't have helped, they needed a front of the rotation starter, and unless it was truly possibly to get Justin Verlander to waive his no trade clause to go to Minnesota when he knew that he could go to a better spot in Houston, there didn't appear to be any options for the Twins.

 

Early exits will continue to happen if the team doesn't significantly beef up the front of the rotation. If they don't do it this off season I'm going to be disappointed, but it did not appear possible to do what was necessary last July to actually win a championship.

Yeah, yeah. We hear that all the time. How long did the Yankees ace last in that game? 

 

[jimmer]

 

I would agree that at the time they thought they made the right call. I would hope that's the case!

But subsequent events, which could have been foreseen and were actually predicted on this very site (such as the schedule becoming easier and other teams slipping), showed that they blundered.

Yeah, I don't agree.  Our team didn't play well enough in the first four months to consider too many teams a cakewalk.  We were 9th in the AL in scoring and last in pitching.

 

But hey, people have different opinions.  It's fun.

Edited December 8, 2017 by jimmer