Article: The Impending Rochester Rotation Crunch

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would say Slegers is much more likely this year to contribute positively to the big league club. Obviously not long term.

 

Upper minors should absolutely prioritize depth for the major leagues, with A ball focusing on development. I don't really see the rush with Thorpe, he can get his feet wet this season in Hi A without it causing any development issues.

 

The rush would be, I don't know, getting him to MN before he gets older. This site is filled with people saying hte TWins should slow play their pitchers, let them get more time in the low minors, what is the hurry.....how has the worked out for this team? Why are other teams calling up younger players? Why are other teams calling up younger RPs, and seeing more strikeouts than this team? Maybe it is because pitchers lose velocity as they age.....

[Tomj14]

 

So you think Slegers is more likely to be a good MLB pitcher than Thorpe? 

Me? not at all, I was trying to say Thorpe (#13) should/can be held back "if ready" because he is young enough to go to a lower team than say Slegers (#34)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope anyone they plan on converting to the bullpen gets the news in the off season. It seems that guys don't do as well in the pen if they went in to the season as a starter. With his current low ceiling I'd probably move Slegers to the pen now and see if he gains velocity. Stature and stuff he has a lot in common with Jon Rauch; that wouldn't be a bad bullpen piece.

 

This. Be aggressive, try to win. This team and its fans spend a lot of time trying not to lose.....Slegers is very unlikely to be a very good starting pitcher, but he might be a very good RP. They have plenty of guys in AA and AAA with similar stuff as him, as this article points out. Start moving some of them to RP sooner rather than later.

[Tomj14]

 

I would say Slegers is much more likely this year to contribute positively to the big league club. Obviously not long term.

 

Upper minors should absolutely prioritize depth for the major leagues, with A ball focusing on development. I don't really see the rush with Thorpe, he can get his feet wet this season in Hi A without it causing any development issues.

He did pitch 77 innings there last year in 15 starts, I would be fine with giving him 8-10 to start there, but anything more tells me he went from a top prospect back to just a regular prospect.

[drjim]

 

The rush would be, I don't know, getting him to MN before he gets older. This site is filled with people saying hte TWins should slow play their pitchers, let them get more time in the low minors, what is the hurry.....how has the worked out for this team? Why are other teams calling up younger players? Why are other teams calling up younger RPs, and seeing more strikeouts than this team? Maybe it is because pitchers lose velocity as they age.....

 

So you propose a worse development strategy?

 

And are you sure other teams are calling up younger players at some accelerated rate relative to the Twins? I follow prospects and call ups pretty closely and this seems to be often repeated and way overstated (and more likely just flat out wrong). To the extent young guys come up, such as Berrios for example, it is because they are good AND stay healthy.

 

Perhaps Thorpe should get through a full minor league season before we become too concerned about his contributions to the big league club.

[drjim]

 

He did pitch 77 innings there last year in 15 starts, I would be fine with giving him 8-10 to start there, but anything more tells me he went from a top prospect back to just a regular prospect.

 

If he is a top prospect (like I think he is), I don't think he'll even need 8-10 starts. And I agree, if he is at Hi A longer, it will take a lot of the luster off his prospect status.

[drjim]

 

This. Be aggressive, try to win. This team and its fans spend a lot of time trying not to lose.....Slegers is very unlikely to be a very good starting pitcher, but he might be a very good RP. They have plenty of guys in AA and AAA with similar stuff as him, as this article points out. Start moving some of them to RP sooner rather than later.

 

He might surprise, but Slegers as a reliever really wouldn't profile as anything more than a long man, or possibly the 6th guy in a pen. What would be the hurry to push him to that, especially when he does provide depth to the rotation, especially early in the season. Outside of him and Gonsalves, no one else in the article is really prepared to step into the rotation for the first 2-3 months of the season.

 

I could get behind the plan with Romero, but it also seems worth exploring whether he can stay on as a starter, because the potential payoff would be so high.

[drjim]

 

Enns looks like a bullpen arm to me. The rest of the logjam will fade when injuries hit, not worried about that. I expect the Twins to add one starter, but I’d really like to see 2 and have Gibson non tendered.

 

Too late on Gibson.

[Tomj14]

 

So you propose a worse development strategy?

 

And are you sure other teams are calling up younger players at some accelerated rate relative to the Twins? I follow prospects and call ups pretty closely and this seems to be often repeated and way overstated (and more likely just flat out wrong). To the extent young guys come up, such as Berrios for example, it is because they are good AND stay healthy.

 

Perhaps Thorpe should get through a full minor league season before we become too concerned about his contributions to the big league club.

I think the point is if our pitchers are real prospects they should be established major leaguers by the time they are 24-25. (Berrios, Gray, Sale, Archer, etc..) 

[yarnivek1972]

I think the average player in the FSL is something like 23-years-old, so Thorpe and Wells would still be young for that level. Also, neither of those two have pitched healthy through an entire year of full-season ball yet. I would feel comfortable starting the year with both of them on the Miracle.

I don’t think average age of a particular minor league level is a meaningful evaluation. The guys that are prospects are generally younger than “org fill” players at each level. They have to be otherwise they would be completely overmatched.

[Mike Sixel]

Every year they delay having the good pitchers in MN, is another year gone of having Sano, Buxton, et. al. all on the roster. 

[drjim]

 

I think the point is if our pitchers are real prospects they should be established major leaguers by the time they are 24-25. (Berrios, Gray, Sale, Archer, etc..) 

 

Thorpe just turned 22 a couple of weeks ago (and had TJ surgery). And they examples you cite are some of the best pitching prospects of the past decade. The Twins don't have that in the minors, no argument here.

[drjim]

 

Every year they delay having the good pitchers in MN, is another year gone of having Sano, Buxton, et. al. all on the roster. 

 

No disagreement here, would be nice if the Twins had better pitching prospects closer to the majors.

 

Sprinting the handful that might ultimately develop that way to the majors is not really a solution, it's a recipe to continue the problem. 

[Dantes929]

 

Great stuff as always, really shows Falvine are in a good spot. Sounds like they may have the financial flexibility to sign a guy or two and at the same time they have depth to use as either injury insurance or trade bait.

 

My guess right now ...

 

MLB: Erv, Berrios, Gibson, NEW, NEW

AAA: Mejia, May (as he builds arm strength), Slegers, Gonsalves, Enns

AA: Jorge, Littell, Romero, Stewart, Eades

 

Obviously trades/Rule 5 draft stuff and injuries could open up spots, but I'd suspect the team will also sign at least one minor league free agent to add to this mix too. But the fact they let Dereck Rodriguez and David Hurlbut go says they feel pretty comfortable with their depth in the upper minors.

 

As far as I can see, the desirable free agents are Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb.    Sabbathia would be nice short term but I don't see it.    What are our true odds of getting even one of these guys?   What are the odds of getting one of these guys plus a trade where we get someone better than Mejia, keeping in mind that his 4.5 ERA is probably about league average and I assume we think he can do a little better.    I think it way more likely that the rotation is filled by Mejia and Gonsalves than it is by two new guys and I am not saying that is a bad thing.    Not having a lot of time in AAA shouldn't dim our view of how good a pitcher Gonsalves is right now.   Admittedly, I have no idea having never seen him but his dominance of lower levels should translate at least somewhat.     In essence I don't see us getting two new guys when there are a couple dozen other teams trying for a pretty small supply.     I am hoping for one of the 4 listed above but even there I don't see any real evidence that we have a better chance of landing even one than the other couple dozen teams.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 I could easily see Gonsalves following the path of Kyle Hendricks.    Why expect guys who have dominated at lower levels to fail in the Bigs?   

 

It happens, esp. if they do not have plus to plus plus stuff.  Just like Liam Hendiks whose 2.89 ERA, 1.079 WIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 career MiLB numbers are in the ballpark of Kyle Hendricks's (2.94 ERA, 1.098 WIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and Stephen Gonsalves's (2.39 ERA, 1.087 WIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). 

 

For every Kyle, there is a Liam.

[drjim]

 

It happens, esp. if they do not have plus to plus plus stuff.  Just like Liam Hendiks whose 2.89 ERA, 1.079 WIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 career MiLB numbers are in the ballpark of Kyle Hendricks's (2.94 ERA, 1.098 WIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and Stephen Gonsalves's (2.39 ERA, 1.087 WIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). 

 

For every Kyle, there is a Liam.

 

Probably more accurate to say for every Kyle there is probably 10 Liams.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No disagreement here, would be nice if the Twins had better pitching prospects closer to the majors.

 

Sprinting the handful that might ultimately develop that way to the majors is not really a solution, it's a recipe to continue the problem. 

 

where, exactly, did I say Thorpe should be there this year? I want him set up for next year (uh, to me, this year is 2018......). Ready. Not "he needs at least half a year in AA/AAA first" ready. That's hardly "sprinting" if he's the prospect they need him to be. And, he's just one example. Why did Gonsalves spend nearly all year in AA, utterly dominating, and not move to AAA sooner to face better hitters? 

 

We are just going to disagree on this. IMO, they aren't going to win anything if they won't take risks. Those risks include moving someone that might be an ok number 5 to RP sooner, rather than later, and getting a guy like Thorpe ready to pitch in the majors in 2019.

[Thrylos]

 

 

1. What to Make of Aaron Slegers?

 

 

2. Is It Time for Any of These Hurlers to Make a Bullpen Transition?

 

3. Could Someone Sneak Into the Opening Day MLB Rotation?

 

4. Should the Twins Be Shopping Pitching Prospects?

 

1. Organizational depth. His 40-man spot is as solid as Buddy Bo's

 

2. I'd love to see the Twins bring up Romero the way the WSox brought Sale and have him build arm strength and consistency in the majors pen.  He can be very good

 

3. Too early to tell, but I doubt it.

 

4. Of course.  Adding them to trade packages to improve them.  Better shop them when they have some value than let them walk as a MiLB FAs, Rule 5,  or waiver wire picks in the near or far future.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The rush would be, I don't know, getting him to MN before he gets older. This site is filled with people saying hte TWins should slow play their pitchers, let them get more time in the low minors, what is the hurry.....how has the worked out for this team? Why are other teams calling up younger players? Why are other teams calling up younger RPs, and seeing more strikeouts than this team? Maybe it is because pitchers lose velocity as they age.....

Or before they get hurt in the minors (every college arm they draft) and exacerbate the slow track even further. 

[laloesch]

 

As far as I can see, the desirable free agents are Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb.    Sabbathia would be nice short term but I don't see it.    What are our true odds of getting even one of these guys?   What are the odds of getting one of these guys plus a trade where we get someone better than Mejia, keeping in mind that his 4.5 ERA is probably about league average and I assume we think he can do a little better.    I think it way more likely that the rotation is filled by Mejia and Gonsalves than it is by two new guys and I am not saying that is a bad thing.    Not having a lot of time in AAA shouldn't dim our view of how good a pitcher Gonsalves is right now.   Admittedly, I have no idea having never seen him but his dominance of lower levels should translate at least somewhat.     In essence I don't see us getting two new guys when there are a couple dozen other teams trying for a pretty small supply.     I am hoping for one of the 4 listed above but even there I don't see any real evidence that we have a better chance of landing even one than the other couple dozen teams.

 

Exactly.  There are so many teams starving for quality pitching i have a hard time believing that the Twins are going to win any bidding wars on Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb.  Maybe one of the latter two, but why would any of them want to go to Minnesota in the first place?  I mean that's what the media always says.  Who the heck wants to go to the Twin Cities where it's winter 9 months out of the year and gets dark at 3 o'clock in the afternoon when daylight savings time ends.

 

Anyhow all kidding and sarcasm aside let say they sign Lynn that leaves them with a rotation of

 

Santana

Lynn (a good pickup)

Berrios

Gibson (he's been tendered but on thin ice)

and a whole assortment of potential options for #5.  

 

Gonsalves

Sledgers

Jorge

May

Romero (soon)

Littell (soon)

 

That's not a bad rotation to enter the season with and certainly playoff competitive.

[drjim]

 

where, exactly, did I say Thorpe should be there this year? I want him set up for next year (uh, to me, this year is 2018......). Ready. Not "he needs at least half a year in AA/AAA first" ready. That's hardly "sprinting" if he's the prospect they need him to be. And, he's just one example. Why did Gonsalves spend nearly all year in AA, utterly dominating, and not move to AAA sooner to face better hitters? 

 

We are just going to disagree on this. IMO, they aren't going to win anything if they won't take risks. Those risks include moving someone that might be an ok number 5 to RP sooner, rather than later, and getting a guy like Thorpe ready to pitch in the majors in 2019.

 

Well, then there is no real disagreement on Thorpe. I expect him to start in Hi A this year, blow through it, and perhaps even make it to AAA. He's not going to be ready to start in the majors on day 1 in 2019, he won't be built up with enough innings to make it effectively through a season. But he should absolutely be developed in a way to throw significant innings in the majors in 2019 (assuming he's good enough), with perhaps an eye towards having him finish the season in the rotation.

 

The Gonsalves example is a development of talent issue, not a speed of promotion issue.

 

And moving ok starters to being a reliever quickly is not a "risk", it is just bad asset management. But I agree pushing a guy like Thorpe too quickly would be risky behavior.

[old nurse]

The last season the Twins had too many good pitchers was when?  Not when they traded Garza or Lohse..  Maybe when the franchise had the Big Train. I was not around for that.

[drjim]

 

Or before they get hurt in the minors (every college arm they draft) and exacerbate the slow track even further. 

 

You prefer they get hurt their rookie seasons and expedite their clock so they can reach arbitration without having contributed much of anything?

 

These college arms aren't sitting in the minors for giggles. If they had the stuff and command (and health) locked down to be effective in the majors they would blow through the system.

[jimmer]

Did the Twins really tender Gibson a contract?

[Tom Froemming]

 

As far as I can see, the desirable free agents are Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb.    Sabbathia would be nice short term but I don't see it.    What are our true odds of getting even one of these guys? 

Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Twins would sign Darvish in his latest chat. Obviously he was just speculating, but it wasn't baseless. Those guys pay as close attention to things around the league as anybody. Maybe they don't land Yu, but I am to the point where I expect them to sign one of those top 4 starters. But you're absolutely right, there's a lot of competition for those guys so I doubt they get two in that class.

 

As far as the second spot, I could see the team either trading for a Cole/Odorizzi/Straily type or it wouldn't surprise me if there's a second-tier free agent that appeals to this front office for some specific reason. Maybe they think getting Chatwood out of Denver could be a game changer for him or they can fix Chacin or Tillman's wildness. They liked Jaime Garcia enough to trade for him. 

 

Would that be overkill? Maybe, but guys are going to get hurt. If you want five decent starters all year you probably realistically need to have like 10 of them in house.

[KirbyDome89]

 

You prefer they get hurt their rookie seasons and expedite their clock so they can reach arbitration without having contributed much of anything?

 

These college arms aren't sitting in the minors for giggles. If they had the stuff and command (and health) locked down to be effective in the majors they would blow through the system.

As opposed to turning 25 and being exposed to the Rule V draft before pitching for the Twins?  

[Dantes929]

 

It happens, esp. if they do not have plus to plus plus stuff.  Just like Liam Hendiks whose 2.89 ERA, 1.079 WIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 career MiLB numbers are in the ballpark of Kyle Hendricks's (2.94 ERA, 1.098 WIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and Stephen Gonsalves's (2.39 ERA, 1.087 WIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). 

 

For every Kyle, there is a Liam.

Funny.   I was thinking of Liam as well.    I know it happens but i disagree that there are 10 of Liam for every Kyle.    If you dominate in the minors you still have a pretty good shot of doing ok in the majors.   From my memory the scouting reports on stuff show Gonsalves to be much better than Liam's.    Also, Liam is a pretty good poster boy for your point but he has still carved out some pretty good major league years since he has left Minnesota.

[drjim]

 

Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Twins would sign Darvish in his latest chat. Obviously he was just speculating, but it wasn't baseless. Those guys pay as close attention to things around the league as anybody. Maybe they don't land Yu, but I am to the point where I expect them to sign one of those top 4 starters. But you're absolutely right, there's a lot of competition for those guys so I doubt they get two in that class.

 

As far as the second spot, I could see the team either trading for a Cole/Odorizzi/Straily type or it wouldn't surprise me if there's a second-tier free agent that appeals to this front office for some specific reason. Maybe they think getting Chatwood out of Denver could be a game changer for him or they can fix Chacin or Tillman's wildness. They liked Jaime Garcia enough to trade for him. 

 

Would that be overkill? Maybe, but guys are going to get hurt. If you want five decent starters all year you probably realistically need to have like 10 of them in house.

 

Signing an established starter and a one year flyer on a vet seems like the bare minimum they should do. 

[drjim]

 

Did the Twins really tender Gibson a contract?

 

They aren't that incompetent to just let him go.

[drjim]

 

As opposed to turning 25 and being exposed to the Rule V draft before pitching for the Twins?  

 

Is that a worse outcome than if he had been rushed up two years, likely not pitched well, then likely been dfa'ed this offseason after missing a ton of time due to injury?

 

If he was good enough, they would have protected him on the 40 man.