Article: Hopes And Plans For Trevor May

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, Nick wrote about a forgotten player who hopes to be a factor in the Twins pitching staff in 2018, Phil Hughes. Another pitcher finds himself in a similar boat. Trevor May had Tommy John surgery last March and spent the 2017 season rehabbing. That process continues. We can’t with any certainty know when he will return to the Twins. However, as with Hughes, we can certainly speculate what his role might be for the Twins in 2018 and beyond.So when might Trevor May be back? Also, what is the best role for him? Of course, there’s no way to know either of those answers, but we can at least start thinking about them.

 

When might May return?

 

It’s obviously difficult to know the answer to that question. One tremendous source for fans regarding Tommy John surgery is Jon Roegele’sexcellent Tommy John surgery list. It provides a lot of information on those who have had the surgery, which organization they were with, when the surgery was, when they returned, and which doctor performed the surgery. It's a very valuable tool for fans.

 

The generic timeline for recovery of pitchers is 12-14 months, but the range really is more like 11-24 months. And even that is very dependent upon when the surgery happens. I mean, if a guy has the surgery in August, they’re going to miss the entire next season, but because there are two offseasons involved, it’s likely he won’t pitch in a game for 20-22 months.

 

Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero both needed two years to return, but both of them had a setback in their recovery. Romero needed knee surgery. Thorpe lost time due to mono. Brusdar Graterol missed nearly two years as well, but he had surgery in August 2015, missed all of 2016, and didn’t return until the GCL season started in June of 2017.

 

On the other side of things, Kyle Gibson returned to the mound just under 12 months from his surgery date. Joe Nathan returned just over a year after his 2010 Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers returned in 11 months.

 

May’s most recent Twitter update on his arm came about three weeks ago. On November 13, he tweeted, “75 throws at 105 today. That’s a lot. And I’m fired up.”

 

 

That doesn’t tell us when he’ll be back and able to pitch, but it tells us that things are progressing very nicely for the right-hander.

 

It’s also possible, depending upon where May is in his rehab during spring training, that he could spend a month or two in the minor leagues building up arm strength in a controlled environment before bringing him back to the big leagues. That would not be a terrible idea, and depending on the role he’s brought back for, it might make the most sense.

 

What Is The Best Role for May?

 

Here is another question that we just don’t have any great answer for. There are so many variables that go into that, including things that are completely out of his control, like the Twins front office acquiring starters or relievers this offseason.

 

A quick look back in time tells us that there are three (sort of) possibilities for guys returning from Tommy John.

 

1 - Starters Come Back As Starters

2 - Relievers Come Back As Relievers

 

The first two sound really simple, right. I mean, if a guy was a starter before he had Tommy John surgery, he tends most often to come back as a starting pitcher. There are several examples of starters who came back as strong as they were before the surgery, sometimes even better. Maybe the best example of that is Tommy John himself. He notched 164 wins in the big leagues after having the surgery that is named after him. Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman. The list goes on and on of starting pitchers who have come back to all-star caliber after surgery. Kerry Wood came back as a quality starter after his surgery following his Rookie of the Year season.

 

Likewise, relievers come back as relievers. Billy Wagner was back as the Astros closer in under a year and continued to dominate. Joe Nathan returned to dominance following his first Tommy John surgery. Pat Neshek took a little time to get back to his pre-surgery self, but he has come back to all-star levels and multi-year extensions.

 

3 - The John Smoltz Option (Starter Becomes Reliever)

 

The best example of a player shifting roles after Tommy John is Hall of Famer John Smoltz. He was a tremendous starting pitcher for many years before his surgery. When he came back from his surgery, he made a handful of starts before taking over the Atlanta closer role. He went on to save 154 games over the next three-plus seasons. He became the best closer in the game for a short period. But then he went back to starting, in his fifth season after surgery. He made 100 starts over the next three years and was twice an All-Star.

 

Kerry Wood had shoulder surgery later in his career, and at that point, he came back as a closer and was good for a couple of years.

 

Smoltz has talked in the past about the decision to move into that closer role. Essentially, he wasn’t able to eat as many inningsas before his return, and more important, the Braves were a contending team in need of a reliable closer. Smoltz was able to not only fill that role, but dominate in it.

 

But he did want to get back into a starting role. He talked about how he was able to develop a consistent routine, know his schedule for running, throwing, side sessions, etc. He didn’t have to worry about throwing every day. He was able to adequately rest.

 

 

What About May?

 

Which category does May fit into? That’s the tough part that we just don’t know. Starters come back as starters. Relievers come back as relievers. Well, is May a starter or a reliever? I mean, he came up as a starter, but he became a threat in the bullpen for a couple of years. He missed time in 2016 with a back injury that cost him a lot of time in the season's second half. There was thought that he could help mitigate that stress by starting. That’s the role he went into spring training 2017 fighting for. He was being given every opportunity to be a starter.

 

Until that fateful start against Team USA in a WBC exhibition game in Ft. Myers. That night, he felt discomfort in his elbow. A month later, he had the surgery.

 

For me, I would probably bring him back as a starter. At least that’s how I would handle his return. To me, that would be much easier on his arm and body, and it might be helpful mentally as he works through the ups and downs of a return. Then again, spring training itself is a very regimented program, especially for pitchers. They know when they’ll pitch (starters and relievers). They plan several days ahead for who will pitch and how many pitches.

 

In other words, like all injuries or player development or anything, it has to be individualized.

 

It’s likely that Trevor May, Paul Molitor, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey will have several conversations before spring training, and then throughout spring training.

 

So there are two questions for the Twins Daily readers to consider:

• What do you think the Twins and May should decide?
• What do you think that the Twins and May will decide?

 

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[terrydactyls]

There was a lot of talk that his back problems were related to pitching in relief.  If that is true, he should be brought back as a starter.  If they are unrelated, he would be a great reliever.  What will the Twins do?  Probably release him and he goes on to be an All-Star with another team.

[nater79a]

Seth, interested in the picture at the top.  Is this from the day late in spring training when it was announced that Trevor would have TJ?  

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

his demotion to the pen wasn't due to talent or non-performance. For a team desperate for starting help, he should be a starter... even if that means a month or two in the minors.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

We may find out about May in May...maybe.

[Thrylos]

I think that the answer to May is a bit more complicated, given the back issues that likely arose from his body not being well prepared for / adjusted to a pen role.  I understand that this is a new set of coaches and decision makers than previously, which might help him.

Another thing that complicates the answer is that we don't know who will be on the Twins roster come next March.  If they get 2 top of the rotation arms and keep Santana, there is no space for May in the rotation, unless there is an injury.

In the unfortunate event that the Twins do not get enough arms, May better have a spot unless he proves he is not ready.

 

For some reason, I see this as a Santana vs. May situation, because the Twins will help themselves to top of the rotation pitchers.  If Santana is not here, May will be in the rotation, if/when ready.  if Santana is here, May will be in the pen and used as a spot starter, assuming he is ready.

May has an option, which makes things a tad more flexible.

 

Still long enough time to think about it.  Come February/March, we'll have more data points.

[rdehring]

Don't know whether or not he will be a reliever or starter...that's for others to decide.  What I do expect is that he will not be ready for opening day.  I see him spending a month to two in XST where he will finalize his rehab.  He then gets sent out on a rehab assignment for 20 days and reports to the Twins sometime in late May or June.  Bullpen or starting, we'll all know next spring.

[wabene]

I like him as a starter. He looked to me on the way to fulfilling that valuable role. It is Trevor's preference as well. If May is on the way to reaching his potential as a starter there won't be anyone good enough to block him.

[The Wise One]

The back issues need some resolution. Perhaps the new training staff will have better idea for treatment. His time as a starter was nothing special. Many a bad things happened more often than for a normal pitcher when the bat met the ball when he was starting.  As a stikeout artist he was only slightly better than average. Maybe he learned something as a reliever, maybe not. Spring training will tell. . 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, interested in the picture at the top.  Is this from the day late in spring training when it was announced that Trevor would have TJ?  

 

Yeah, that was the first day I got to Ft. Myers last year...

[Doomtints]

 

his demotion to the pen wasn't due to talent or non-performance. 

 

This gets repeated a lot. Where is it coming from?

 

You can argue the Twins didn't give him enough of a chance (120 innings), but you can't argue he was performing acceptably as a starter (5.61 ERA, .817 OPS against). And don't forget, he was moved to the pen after a 6-run start where he only managed to get 1 out, and then a guy named Tyler Duffey was called up and kept exceeding expectations as a starter.

 

May probably deserves another shot (esp. if it's May v. Duffey), but some of us have a narrative on May that forgets everything that happened in 2015.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Doomtints

[Dantes929]

 

 

I think that the answer to May is a bit more complicated, given the back issues that likely arose from his body not being well prepared for / adjusted to a pen role.  I understand that this is a new set of coaches and decision makers than previously, which might help him.

Another thing that complicates the answer is that we don't know who will be on the Twins roster come next March.  If they get 2 top of the rotation arms and keep Santana, there is no space for May in the rotation, unless there is an injury.

In the unfortunate event that the Twins do not get enough arms, May better have a spot unless he proves he is not ready.

 

 

"If they get 2 top of the rotation arms"?    Odds wise I am guessing you might as well say "If they get 5 top of the rotation arms".    I say this because I cannot remember them ever getting what was widely viewed at the time as even 1 top of the rotation arm during the off season.   Morris was coming off two mediocre years at age 36 so do not count him.  Blyleven somehow or other was acquired for a player to be named later (how did that happen?)   during the season.   Ervin Santana has been the closest thing I can think of and people still question that status even though he has been nothing but great.   Certainly he wasn't viewed that way when we got him.

 

   How many top of the rotation guys are there?  How many are available?  How many teams are going after them?    If we get one guy in the Cobb or Lynn category I will consider it a successful off season.    Darvish, even better.    Again, there might not be 30 teams after these guys but there are no less than a dozen for each.     If we get one of those guys then it is that guy, Santana, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia.      If we don't it is probably Gonsalves or a different rookie that fills the spot.   I hope it is not Santiago.   I just don't see May with us out of the gate unless he is throwing 96 with great command.    With his back issues I definitely see him as a starter.    I have long considered May to be the centerpiece of the Span and Revere trades and am optimistic he will be a big piece this year.   I just don't see rushing him in April.

[gunnarthor]

I think this is a pretty easy answer. He'll start the season as part of the rotation in AAA. Unless something goes horribly wrong, he'll be the first starter up when we need a new one. I think our AAA rotation will include Mejia, May, Gonsavles and Romero, which gives the team some depth.

[Teddy]

Does Trevor have any options left? I thought they used up their last option on him, and if that's the case, wouldn't he have to start the season on the DL and then a 30-day rehab assignment if they want him to start in the minors? Or because he finished the season on the DL, can they start him off in a rehab session without an option or needing to expose him to waivers to send him down?

[Mike Sixel]

I think this is a pretty easy answer. He'll start the season as part of the rotation in AAA. Unless something goes horribly wrong, he'll be the first starter up when we need a new one. I think our AAA rotation will include Mejia, May, Gonsavles and Romero, which gives the team some depth.

Agreed. Counting on him to be ready is a bad plan.

[nytwinsfan]

It’s also possible, depending upon where May is in his rehab during spring training, that he could spend a month or two in the minor leagues building up arm strength in a controlled environment before bringing him back to the big leagues. That would not be a terrible idea, and depending on the role he’s brought back for, it might make the most sense.

 

Unless he's just lights out and consistently hitting his spots, showing excellent command in spring training, this is the way to go.  I've always heard command can frequently lag even when the pitcher has his movement and velocity back after TJ.

 

I definitely would try to bring him back as a starter though.

[Thrylos]

 

 

   If we get one of those guys then it is that guy, Santana, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia.      If we don't it is probably Gonsalves or a different rookie that fills the spot. 

 

 

Good luck competing with Cleveland, Houston, and the Yankees; not to mention the Dodgers, Cubs, Expos etc. with this rotation in a short series or in one game series

 

They need two pitchers better than Berrios to compete and Santana is not one of them.

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Thrylos

[sthpstm]

 

This gets repeated a lot. Where is it coming from?

 

You can argue the Twins didn't give him enough of a chance (120 innings), but you can't argue he was performing acceptably as a starter (5.61 ERA, .817 OPS against). And don't forget, he was moved to the pen after a 6-run start where he only managed to get 1 out, and then a guy named Tyler Duffey was called up and kept exceeding expectations as a starter.

 

May probably deserves another shot (esp. if it's May v. Duffey), but some of us have a narrative on May that forgets everything that happened in 2015.

I don't think counting his cup of coffee as a rookie in 2014 paints an accurate picture. His 2015 ERA was 4.43 and his FIP was a shiny 3.35. He was sent to the pen because Ervin Santana was coming back from suspension and the old regime had to have Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey starting games for them. Tyler Duffey didn't come up until August at which point they weren't going to stretch May back out again.

He also bounced back from that poor start and made an excellent start before he was sent to the pen.

 

I definitely would plan on May as a starter. He can be counted on for 8 if not 9 K's per 9 inning and has good stuff to back it up. The Twins don't need a regular 5th starter until the end of April so I'd work him back slowly and give him a few starts in April in AAA. Aaron Slegers or Dietrich Enns can make a spot start or two (assuming we don't sign 2 top starters. By then there will probably be an injury or a poor performer to replace.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

This gets repeated a lot. Where is it coming from?

 

You can argue the Twins didn't give him enough of a chance (120 innings), but you can't argue he was performing acceptably as a starter (5.61 ERA, .817 OPS against). And don't forget, he was moved to the pen after a 6-run start where he only managed to get 1 out, and then a guy named Tyler Duffey was called up and kept exceeding expectations as a starter.

 

May probably deserves another shot (esp. if it's May v. Duffey), but some of us have a narrative on May that forgets everything that happened in 2015.

(emphasis added). YES YOU ABSOLUTELY CAN.

 

May Career as starter: 3.85 FIP 4.09 xFIP, .354 BABIP

May 2015 as starter: 3.35 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, .344 BABIP

 

Yes, his numbers as a reliever are significantly better, but that is true of almost any pitcher, and he pitched as a reliever after another year of development, when he may have been improving somewhat as a starter as well had he stayed in that role. 

 

Compare:

 

SP A starter year X: 7.88 K/9, 20.3 K%, 1.94 BB/9, 5.0 BB%, .86 HR/9

SP B starter year Y: 8.59 K/9, 22.6 K%, 2.97 BB/9, 7.8 BB%, .93 HR/9

 

Which would you rather have? It is pretty close, but I'd go with starting pitcher A, because of the significantly lower BB% and very slightly lower HR/9 rate, even despite the lower K rate. But I'll grant that it is debatable.

.

.

.

.

.

SP A is Trevor May as a starter in 2015. SP B is Jose Berrios in 2017.

 

[Tom Froemming]

Thanks for the update. I'm not sure how the Twins should be planning May's future, but I will say that ever since Joe Nathan had Tommy John I've looked at this surgery a lot differently. I think we're a little desensitized to it, since it's so common and so many players bounce back, but it's a big recovery and some guys need that 24 month timetable to really get back.

 

Nathan had the surgery in March of 2010 and made the Opening Day roster the next season. It looked like he was toast in his first year back, but nope, he still had two more amazing years in him that the Rangers benefited from.

 

2004-09: 1.87 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.1 K/9

2011: 4.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.7 K/9

2012-13: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

 

It's going to be a really tough message to deliver to a 28-year-old Trevor May who I'm sure is absolutely chomping at the bit to get on the mound and prove himself, but it's going to be important that he and the team remain patient.

[Steve Lein]

 

This gets repeated a lot. Where is it coming from?

 

You can argue the Twins didn't give him enough of a chance (120 innings), but you can't argue he was performing acceptably as a starter (5.61 ERA, .817 OPS against). And don't forget, he was moved to the pen after a 6-run start where he only managed to get 1 out, and then a guy named Tyler Duffey was called up and kept exceeding expectations as a starter.

 

May probably deserves another shot (esp. if it's May v. Duffey), but some of us have a narrative on May that forgets everything that happened in 2015.

 

I'll show you where this narrative comes from:

 

That 6-run start you're talking about? That was preceded by a 7-start stretch where he went 5+ innings each game, 6+ in 6 of them, 7 innings in 2, and had quality starts in 5. His final start of the season after that game was also of the quality variety. He lowered his ERA in those games from 5.40 to 4.37 in 50.1 innings before they transitioned him, including that 6-run start you mentioned (he took the mound in that game at 4.03). 

 

He absolutely was pitching well at the time the move to the bullpen was made if you ask me.

[Dantes929]

 

I think this is a pretty easy answer. He'll start the season as part of the rotation in AAA. Unless something goes horribly wrong, he'll be the first starter up when we need a new one. I think our AAA rotation will include Mejia, May, Gonsavles and Romero, which gives the team some depth.

I agree with this also except I don't see Mejia starting in the minors.   I think he pitched well enough and did not miss enough time to be penalized such that I think he starts ST as either #4 or #5 on the depth charts depending on whether we get someone else.    You could talk me out of it but Santana, Berrios, Gibson and ? and ?.  .    If we don't pick someone up I suspect it will be Mejia and Gonsalves.    Would be better than Santiago and Colon anyway.

[Dantes929]

 

I'll show you where this narrative comes from:

 

That 6-run start you're talking about? That was preceded by a 7-start stretch where he went 5+ innings each game, 6+ in 6 of them, 7 innings in 2, and had quality starts in 5. His final start of the season after that game was also of the quality variety. He lowered his ERA in those games from 5.40 to 4.37 in 50.1 innings before they transitioned him, including that 6-run start you mentioned (he took the mound in that game at 4.03). 

 

He absolutely was pitching well at the time the move to the bullpen was made if you ask me.

Its not just this,which I agree with completely.   His 2015 time with the Twins can be written off IMO.   He was having a monster year as a starter in the minors until his calf injury.   His bad start was probably due to nerves and maybe a little rust since he was brought up pretty quickly after his injury.    To me, that 7 game stretch matches with his stuff and command when healthy.   Those starts were against, the Cards, the Cubs, the Royals, the Red Sox, the White Sox the Rays and the Jays so not just bottom feeders.

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree with this also except I don't see Mejia starting in the minors.   I think he pitched well enough and did not miss enough time to be penalized such that I think he starts ST as either #4 or #5 on the depth charts depending on whether we get someone else.    You could talk me out of it but Santana, Berrios, Gibson and ? and ?.  .    If we don't pick someone up I suspect it will be Mejia and Gonsalves.    Would be better than Santiago and Colon anyway.

 

Boy, that doesn't sound like a contending rotation to me. If the Twins don't go after a top of the rotation SP, they better have a boat load of depth. If Mejia and/or Gonsalves fails, they're back to the Adam Wilk's and Tim Melville's of the world. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I agree with this also except I don't see Mejia starting in the minors.   I think he pitched well enough and did not miss enough time to be penalized such that I think he starts ST as either #4 or #5 on the depth charts depending on whether we get someone else.    You could talk me out of it but Santana, Berrios, Gibson and ? and ?.  .    If we don't pick someone up I suspect it will be Mejia and Gonsalves.    Would be better than Santiago and Colon anyway.

I think we pick up two pitchers this offsesaon. One in free agency for sure and maybe another in FA or through trade. So opening day it's something like - 

Darvish (sure)

Santana

Berrios

Cole (yep, that'll happen)

Gibson

 

Realistically, it's probably something like Cobb/Lynn and Odrozzi. 

[Dantes929]

 

Good luck competing with Cleveland, Houston, and the Yankees; not to mention the Dodgers, Cubs, Expos etc. with this rotation in a short series or in one game series

 

They need two pitchers better than Berrios to compete and Santana is not one of them.

   Santana's ERA against Cleveland was 0.38 in 24 innings.    2.08 in 13 innings against the Astros.   3.18 against the Yankees in 6 innings.    Small sample size?  What are the playoffs if not that?   Just because Santana did not beat the Yankees does not mean he was not capable of doing so.   Aren't we expecting Berrios to get better?     Getting to the playoffs is still the challenge.   I am ok with Santana or Berrios in a short series.  Often all it takes is good luck.  Heck, against the Yankees it might have all hinged on a blown 3rd strike call before Gregorius' home run.    All of this is debatable.   The odds of us getting two top of the rotation guys is less debatable.    If Santana is not top of the line then the only top of the line starter out there is Darvish with Arrietta being on the border.  What are the odds of getting both of those guys?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

(emphasis added). YES YOU ABSOLUTELY CAN.

 

May Career as starter: 3.85 FIP 4.09 xFIP, .354 BABIP

May 2015 as starter: 3.35 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, .344 BABIP

 

Yes, his numbers as a reliever are significantly better, but that is true of almost any pitcher, and he pitched as a reliever after another year of development, when he may have been improving somewhat as a starter as well had he stayed in that role.

 

Compare:

 

SP A starter year X: 7.88 K/9, 20.3 K%, 1.94 BB/9, 5.0 BB%, .86 HR/9

SP B starter year Y: 8.59 K/9, 22.6 K%, 2.97 BB/9, 7.8 BB%, .93 HR/9

 

Which would you rather have? It is pretty close, but I'd go with starting pitcher A, because of the significantly lower BB% and very slightly lower HR/9 rate, even despite the lower K rate. But I'll grant that it is debatable.

.

.

.

.

.

SP A is Trevor May as a starter in 2015. SP B is Jose Berrios in 2017.

as a starter, k rate aggregates to more Ks over a season. He’s absolutely more valuable as a starter if he can get healthy and stay healthy.

[Dantes929]

 

Boy, that doesn't sound like a contending rotation to me. If the Twins don't go after a top of the rotation SP, they better have a boat load of depth. If Mejia and/or Gonsalves fails, they're back to the Adam Wilk's and Tim Melville's of the world. 

No doubt.   I can see where the last half dozen years have jaded fans but I am not expecting Gonsalves or Mejia to fail.   I am expecting Berrios to get better and May to be good.    Doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Darvish.   I would also feel pretty good about Cobb.   All seasons depend on guys developing and progressing or just playing well.   We saw in 2016 what happens when no one plays well.   We saw in 2017 what happens when many of the players do have good seasons.    Most rotations have 3 good performers.    I don't know which ones they will be but I expect that out of 7 decent options 3 of them will step up and 2 more will be adequate.   I can see where the list doesn't comfort people though.    I would like them to add one guy.   It can make a huge difference.

[Dantes929]

 

I think we pick up two pitchers this offsesaon. One in free agency for sure and maybe another in FA or through trade. So opening day it's something like - 

Darvish (sure)

Santana

Berrios

Cole (yep, that'll happen)

Gibson

 

Realistically, it's probably something like Cobb/Lynn and Odrozzi. 

I've said this before but there are just too many teams that want pitching and too few top pitchers for me to think the Twins will land two of them.   There is no history of them even landing one.   New management gives me some hope that we will add one of the 5 guys you have listed.    If you gave me one as a sure thing against the possibility of getting one or more I would bank the sure thing in a heart beat.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm not going to get too worked up about who will be in the opening rotation until we have a chance to see how the dust settles with trades and free agents. But long-term, I'd like to see them give May a chance to start. 

 

However, we have to be realistic about his workload for the year. From 2011-13, he threw 149.2+ innings each year. Then he threw 144 innings in 2014, 114.2 in 2015, 46.1 in 2016, and 0 in 2017.

 

So I think you have to approach 2018 with an assumed innings limit. With that decreased workload and coming back from surgery, I don't think there's any way he can be a full-time starter for the entire year. It's hard for me to see him pitching more than perhaps 140 innings. And if he's not going the entire season, it makes more sense to be conservative and back-load the season.

 

What does that look like? Maybe something like about 10 starts of 5 innings and another 15 starts of 6 innings, give or take. So about 25 starts. 

 

Look at the Twins schedule. If they keep four starters on regular rotation, they need a No. 5 on April 11, then not again until April 24, 29, and May 4. Then not again until May 22, just over a quarter of the way through the season.

 

From there, they have a number of off days in June, but not enough to skip starts. But effectively, most starts in June will come on 5 days rest, which could be helpful for a guy coming back from injury. 

 

So my response to May is to say,

• "You will not make a start until May 22. On the four times we need a No. 5 guy before that, we will make do, perhaps giving Gonsalves, Romero, or Hughes a spot start if need be. Heck, even Duffey could be lengthened for one of those." (That assumes no pickups via trade/free agent. If so, perhaps it's Mejia or Gibson getting those No. 5-guy starts.)
• "If your rehab goes well, you will start a game on May 22. If our ML rotation has thrived and remains healthy, you will pitch in Rochester. If the more likely scenario of an injury or two has happened, you will start against the Tigers, which is essentially a AAA game anyway."
• "Assuming you are effective enough to stay in the rotation, your first 10 games or so will be limited to 70-85 pitches, which will take us essentially to the All-Star Break."
• "Following the break, if you are still healthy enough and effective enough to stay in the rotation, we will up your pitch count to 80-100 pitches for the rest of the year, maxing out when you get to 140 innings. That will get us through the rest of the year. We may need to move you back to the bullpen for the playoffs, which we plan to take part in." 

That's looking at May in a vacuum, but in reality, I think that's what you have to do -- figure out the optimal usage for each individual pitcher and then start at the top, working them into the team context. For example...

• Santana and Berrios (and Darvish, etc.) pitch every fifth day for the entire season, adjusting as needed.
• Workload-wise Gibson is in the same boat, though effectiveness is the question.
• Mejia is not yet ready for 180 innings, but if a top 4 starter is picked up, Mejia might be able to take the early season No. 5-starts and then slide into the full rotation, etc. If you haven't picked up a top-4 starter, the team context probably says that you have to start Mejia in the rotation and start thinking about Plan B for if/when he starts to break done.
• And you've done the same thing with the minor league guys, starting them in Rochester and starting to move them up as openings occur and as they earn it.
• And then keep Bartolo's number on speed dial, just in case. :-) Just kidding!!!