Article: Twins Strike Out On Ohtani

[ashbury]

I think Sam is underselling Babe as a pitcher by quite a bit. Through his age-22 season Babe was on a pace to comfortably assure eventual Hall of Fame selection with whatever he would have done by age 30, and then whatever he tacked on after that would have been gravy.

 

Of course that's only a pace - for instance undiagnosable "sore arms" felled many a bright light in those days. But being dominant at age 21 (the only reason he wasn't the best in the Majors was a couple of more-senior guys named Johnson and Alexander) is a nice early indicator for greatness, and marked him as better than "pretty good".

 

However, the two-way era for him in 1918-19 was a mixed success at best. Monkeying with a great pitcher in hopes of turning him into a great hitter was a gamble. So the basic point regarding a comparison to a current player trying it still stands just fine. I just gotta defend the Babe's soupbone.

[Mike Sixel]

I love how people are trying to disparage Ohtani now that he won't be a Twin. He is the number one FA, by far, this year and would have been last year. 

[dgwills]

Ehh. I can't blame him. There is no way he has even heard of Minnesota until recently. He's already losing a lot of money by coming to MLB now and his lack of greed allows him to go where he wants.

If the Twins had been in contact with him in the past like some of the other clubs then maybe they'd of had a chance.

As some of the posters have mentioned we are still in a good position with the international signing money we have available. Hopefully the Twin's make the best of it.

[Sam Morley]

 

The lack of a quote showing who cited Babe Ruth as a 2-way player comparison for Ohtani leads me to assume my post may have inspired this one

 

 

I wasn't really responding to any one post in particular, and I didn't really interpret your reference of Babe Ruth as being a sincere comp to Ohtani. There really hasn't been a lot of Babe Ruth talk on Twins Daily; most of it has been in the mainstream. On Twins Daily, there has been an absurdly optimistic view of the possibility of Ohtani (or McKay or Green) being a two way player in MLB and very little skepticism. 

[Sam Morley]

 

I think Sam is underselling Babe as a pitcher by quite a bit. Through his age-22 season Babe was on a pace to comfortably assure eventual Hall of Fame selection with whatever he would have done by age 30, and then whatever he tacked on after that would have been gravy.

 

Of course that's only a pace - for instance undiagnosable "sore arms" felled many a bright light in those days. But being dominant at age 21 (the only reason he wasn't the best in the Majors was a couple of more-senior guys named Johnson and Alexander) is a nice early indicator for greatness, and marked him as better than "pretty good".

 

However, the two-way era for him in 1918-19 was a mixed success at best. Monkeying with a great pitcher in hopes of turning him into a great hitter was a gamble. So the basic point regarding a comparison to a current player trying it still stands just fine. I just gotta defend the Babe's soupbone.

Yeah, I was hoping somebody would call me out on undervaluing Babe Ruth as a pitcher, seeing as I really have no idea how good he was outside of looking at some stats for about 30 seconds. In my defense, I did say that he was one of the best pitchers in the league while he was a pitcher only. I knew about Johnson and Alexander and I thought there might have been a couple others- I had to double check on Mathewson- he was pretty much done when Ruth came on the scene though. Eddie Cicotte was pitching at the same time as Ruth too. I agree that Ruth's stats as a pitcher projected over a full career assure him a spot in the hall (which is the definition of greatness) and I don't have any problem assuming he would have delivered on those projections. I sure am glad that the Yankees took the gamble and that today we're talking about the Sultan of Swat rather than not talking about Babe Ruth the Hall of Fame pitcher.

[laloesch]

 

I love how people are trying to disparage Ohtani now that he won't be a Twin. He is the number one FA, by far, this year and would have been last year. 

 

and there wasn't a chance in hell that he would ever sign with Minnesota and there never was.  It was a dream nothing more.  I just hope this FO lands something (lynn or cobb) this offseason and one quality reliever (Kintzler?).  That will help tremendously.  Anything else on top of that would be gravy and un-Twins like.

[Sam Morley]

 

I love how people are trying to disparage Ohtani now that he won't be a Twin. He is the number one FA, by far, this year and would have been last year. 

 

As a pitcher, he might be the #1 free agent (based solely on his age and tool ratings/ceiling) but to say "by far" you're putting an enormous premium on his youth- and I don't really have a problem with that. In my opinion, his value is dramatically affected by how he pursues his career in regards to the two way player non-sense. If he buckles down and puts all of his mental and physical energy and talent into being a starting pitcher, with his tools, it sound like he can be extremely valuable, and that your assertion of him as the #1 free agent will be validated. If he insists on being handed an opportunity to both pitch and hit (leveraging his ceiling as a pitcher in order to get the opportunity) then rather than potentially becoming great, he will become a fleeting side show for whatever desperate organization is foolish enough (the Mariners) to let him try. And that might work out fine for the Mariners. They don't really have anything to lose by letting him try for a month or two, and then when it doesn't work hope that they can convince him to focus on pitching, and then he'll be great and it was worth it. I don't think a team that plans on contending for a playoff birth, such as the Twins, can afford the experiment. So if Ohtani is insistent about pitching and hitting to the extent that he is making it a requirement of whatever team signs him, I'm glad the Twins missed on him. I don't mean to disparage Ohtani- he should pursue his goals with all of his resources. And, I think if he leverages his abilities in combination with the  bidding nature of free agency into an immediate place on an MLB active roster in which he gets to both pitch and hit, it will be to his own detriment (as well as to the detriment of the team that signs him). I think whether or not he focuses solely on pitching or decides to pursue his dream of being a pitcher and hitter, it would benefit his long term success to begin in the minor leagues, probably at double A. Success (especially as a hitter) in the Japanese and Korean pro leagues is just not a reliable predictor of success in MLB. As Twins fans, we've obviously seen this first hand with Nishioka and Park. Both of these player were very talented and they were both very foolishly given immediate spots on the active roster and even placed in immediate starting roles. They both failed spectacularly, but I don't think anybody thinks, especially in Park's case, that it was due to lack of talent. Even the best Cuban players who come over to MLB play first in the minors, and they have a far better track record for success in MLB than players from the Asian pro leagues. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

 

 

As a pitcher, he might be the #1 free agent (based solely on his age and tool ratings/ceiling) but to say "by far" you're putting an enormous premium on his youth- and I don't really have a problem with that. In my opinion, his value is dramatically affected by how he pursues his career in regards to the two way player non-sense. If he buckles down and puts all of his mental and physical energy and talent into being a starting pitcher, with his tools, it sound like he can be extremely valuable, and that your assertion of him as the #1 free agent will be validated. If he insists on being handed an opportunity to both pitch and hit (leveraging his ceiling as a pitcher in order to get the opportunity) then rather than potentially becoming great, he will become a fleeting side show for whatever desperate organization is foolish enough (the Mariners) to let him try. And that might work out fine for the Mariners. They don't really have anything to lose by letting him try for a month or two, and then when it doesn't work hope that they can convince him to focus on pitching, and then he'll be great and it was worth it. I don't think a team that plans on contending for a playoff birth, such as the Twins, can afford the experiment. So if Ohtani is insistent about pitching and hitting to the extent that he is making it a requirement of whatever team signs him, I'm glad the Twins missed on him. I don't mean to disparage Ohtani- he should pursue his goals with all of his resources. And, I think if he leverages his abilities in combination with the  bidding nature of free agency into an immediate place on an MLB active roster in which he gets to both pitch and hit, it will be to his own detriment (as well as to the detriment of the team that signs him). I think whether or not he focuses solely on pitching or decides to pursue his dream of being a pitcher and hitter, it would benefit his long term success to begin in the minor leagues, probably at double A. Success (especially as a hitter) in the Japanese and Korean pro leagues is just not a reliable predictor of success in MLB. As Twins fans, we've obviously seen this first hand with Nishioka and Park. Both of these player were very talented and they were both very foolishly given immediate spots on the active roster and even placed in immediate starting roles. They both failed spectacularly, but I don't think anybody thinks, especially in Park's case, that it was due to lack of talent. Even the best Cuban players who come over to MLB play first in the minors, and they have a far better track record for success in MLB than players from the Asian pro leagues. 

 

 

i'm not saying it.....read the internet. People have been saying he's the number 1 free agent for a long time, years. People are saying he'd get around $150-200MM if he was truly a FA.

 

He's the best FA, by far, not even close. He's young. He's healthy. He has multiple pitches. If he's just "OK" this year, he'll probalby put up around 3 WAR as a SP, if he's dominant in his first year, he'll put up 4-6 WAR. 

[laloesch]

 

 

 

 

As a pitcher, he might be the #1 free agent (based solely on his age and tool ratings/ceiling) but to say "by far" you're putting an enormous premium on his youth- and I don't really have a problem with that. In my opinion, his value is dramatically affected by how he pursues his career in regards to the two way player non-sense. If he buckles down and puts all of his mental and physical energy and talent into being a starting pitcher, with his tools, it sound like he can be extremely valuable, and that your assertion of him as the #1 free agent will be validated. If he insists on being handed an opportunity to both pitch and hit (leveraging his ceiling as a pitcher in order to get the opportunity) then rather than potentially becoming great, he will become a fleeting side show for whatever desperate organization is foolish enough (the Mariners) to let him try. And that might work out fine for the Mariners. They don't really have anything to lose by letting him try for a month or two, and then when it doesn't work hope that they can convince him to focus on pitching, and then he'll be great and it was worth it. I don't think a team that plans on contending for a playoff birth, such as the Twins, can afford the experiment. So if Ohtani is insistent about pitching and hitting to the extent that he is making it a requirement of whatever team signs him, I'm glad the Twins missed on him. I don't mean to disparage Ohtani- he should pursue his goals with all of his resources. And, I think if he leverages his abilities in combination with the  bidding nature of free agency into an immediate place on an MLB active roster in which he gets to both pitch and hit, it will be to his own detriment (as well as to the detriment of the team that signs him). I think whether or not he focuses solely on pitching or decides to pursue his dream of being a pitcher and hitter, it would benefit his long term success to begin in the minor leagues, probably at double A. Success (especially as a hitter) in the Japanese and Korean pro leagues is just not a reliable predictor of success in MLB. As Twins fans, we've obviously seen this first hand with Nishioka and Park. Both of these player were very talented and they were both very foolishly given immediate spots on the active roster and even placed in immediate starting roles. They both failed spectacularly, but I don't think anybody thinks, especially in Park's case, that it was due to lack of talent. Even the best Cuban players who come over to MLB play first in the minors, and they have a far better track record for success in MLB than players from the Asian pro leagues. 

 

 

No offense, but paragraphs please

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by laloesch