Article: The Twins Should Be Shopping Ervin Santana

[Kelly Vance]

Like death and taxes, it is a sure thing that Nick and I will disagree. No offense. 

Erv is our best pitcher and he is worth every penny. He may regress, but I remember several games where our BP blew his win in progress. He is an innings eater and when he is on he can throw a complete game... 7th in voting for Cy Young and was under rated at that. You bet on guys like that, not against them. I'd rather see him on the Twins, mentoring Gonsalves and Berios.  Plus there is a dynamic some never seem to take into consideration. That is, that we don't want a mercenary front office with no loyalty. If we want to attract FA players, it is better to show some loyalty to our guys. It is also a good way to keep our current guys from wanting to bail. Think Calvin Griffith's Waseca speech in reverse. 

[blindeke]

Thing is that $14M is not that bad for a decent FA starter. Shop him, sure and if you get a great offer, take it. But anyone they sign would be more expensive. The original Santana deal was a good one for the Twins!

[Twins33]

I'm on the side of keep him for now. If you get three starters in the offseason, then trade him. That is probably a less than 1% chance of happening.

 

Look at it again mid-season depending upon how the team is doing. I don't expect him to be a Twin in 2019. Just a gut feeling.

[wsnydes]

There really isn't much of a reason not to at least see what's out there, but they don't need to deal him.  Even if they do, it needs to be the right deal and one of several others.  Just like with Dozier last offseason, it can't be the only deal.  There has to be other moves/signings to help build the major league squad and the upper minors.

 

All that said, I'm a firm believer that it's better to deal a guy a year too early than it is to deal him a year too late.  The previous regime did the latter constantly and it hurt the franchise in the long run.  Dealing Santana now is not a sign of perpetual rebuilding.  If last years playoffs should have told people anything, it's that this team still has a long way to go to catch up to the real contenders.  Some of that will be organic growth from within, some of it will have to come from elsewhere.  The only guys that should be near off limits would be the young core four.  Beyond that, I'd be listening.  Just because you listen, it doesn't mean that you have to make a deal.

 

At this point in time though, I think they would be more prudent to hold on to him until at least the deadline.

[kab21]

 

Assumption - other GMs are not idiots. Other GMs understand good/bad seasons, peak and low values, and age affecting performance.

No one is trading younger pitching (close to the Majors) for Santana.

Santana has strong value for the Twins and you make a decision at the trading deadline when a contender may be desperate for a starter (see Garcia trade).  

This is the key point here. I really don't see the Twins getting a substantial offer for Santana and pretty much all they would get is salary relief. That could be important but this rotation needs more than just swapping the '#1' starter. 

 

But the bigger issue is that the Twins need to add 1 if not 2 good pitchers this offseason. Adding one (better pitcher) and subtracting one good pitcher doesn't really help.

 

I am not against trading Santana if there is a nice prospect or two but I think any Ervin trade would essentially be a salary dump for a minor prospect (top 100-ish). Other GM's know that he is 35 (next month) with poor SABR stats.

[Mike Sixel]

I think I keep him for now. Let's see where the team is at the deadline before trading off assets. This is, of course, assuming they don't sign O and D and need the money for RPs.......

 

I see a regression coming, and I see the team dealing him at the deadline. But, keeping the option open that they are good again has real value (in wins and losses, and ticket sales), and they should keep that value for now.

[Hollywood42]

 

Not quite close: 

Santana 2017: 3.28 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 2.9 fWAR, 19.3 K%, 12.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP/ .245 BABIP, 10.1 SwStr%

FranKKKKie 2010: 3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 5.7 fWAR, 24.9 K%, 17.7K/BB, 1.26 WHIP/ .331 BABIP, 12.5 SwStr%

 

That said, I totally agree with the rest:  Santana needs to go.  That ERA-FIP difference, the facts that he was not consistent but had an extremely unreliable June (6.03 ERA) and July (4.68 ERA), he is half a ligament away from disaster, and very likely his 2019 option will vest with IP in 2018, makes it a must to get him traded.  Plus he chocked when it really mattered in the postseason.

 

Package him with Dozier and see what you get.

 

Wha.... What? Now that we're finally a playoff team again, trade our arguably two best players? What?

[laloesch]

 

Like death and taxes, it is a sure thing that Nick and I will disagree. No offense. 

Erv is our best pitcher and he is worth every penny. 

 

Accept both he and Berrios can't beat the Yankees as evidence this year in the WC game.

[Riverbrian]

It's pretty simple for me. 

 

If the front office has 2019 circled... they lose me immediately. 

 

1. The 2017 Momentum needs to be augmented and supported with pitching to match. 

2. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals look promising for down years. Maybe big down years. 

3. The Majority of American League Teams appear to be lacking a roster full of capable arms. Capable Arms may be a huge advantage. 

 

The door is open... they better walk through the door in 2018 and not wait until 2019 to see if it leads to a different room because ... well... it will be a different room and that may not be good. 

 

It is not the time to move vets who produce for younger players who haven't produced yet but maybe will later. 

 

Santana, Berrios plus Darvish? -- Plus? 

 

Strengh in numbers!

 

It's time to spend... Mr. Pohlad... It's time to spend. 

 

[jimmer]

Ervin's year wasn't spectacular. Our standards are just low. It wasnt even as good as it was in 2016. Yes he finished 7th in CY voting. He got 3 points cause 3 voters gave him a 5th place finish (5th place vote gets one point) At least one of the voters was a Minnesota writer. I imagine one of the other two was the Minnesota writer.

 

And Ervin's year was not arguably better than any Twin starter since Johan left. Phil Hughes had a much, MUCH, better season in 2014 and wasnt helped by having a real low .248 babip like Ervin was. Hughes' babip in 2014 was over .320. Sure, Hughes' season was a major outlier for him and he was never going to repeat it, but it DID happen. And,as someone else mentioned, Lirano in 2010. Both much better than Ervins 2017.

 

I like Ervin and he's a fine low 2, high 3 pitcher. There is value there, but its hard to imagine his decline stopping. I've been recommending trade since trade deadline 2016. His value only drops as he gets older and his years of control at a great price gets shorter.

Edited November 29, 2017 by jimmer

[gagu]

I don't thinjk the contract clause is much of a factor. Santana has logged 200+ innings twice in the past six seasons. If he regresses more than expected I don't see much chance that he locks in. If Ervin is trending 200 in late August, it probably will mean that he still has it. If his arm goes south, shows it's age, late in the season, it would be logical that his workload would decrease. There would be no need pull him early to prevent him from locking in. Point is, Ervin's history shows that he is a steal at $13/14 million when he is able to pitch 200 innings. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

And Ervin's year was not arguably better than any Twin starter since Johan left. Phil Hughes had a much, MUCH, better season in 2014 and wasnt helped by having a real low .248 babip like Ervin was. Hughes' babip in 2014 was over .320. Sure, Hughes' season was a major outlier for him and he was never going to repeat it, but it DID happen. And,as someone else mentioned, Lirano in 2010. Both much better than Ervins 2017.

Those are fine arguments, and I'd probably be inclined to agree, but they're not definitive by any means. I'd say Hughes and Liriano pitched better but they did not stack up in terms of results. Santana has both of them beat in IP, ERA, WHIP, CG, shutouts, etc. Was an All Star and got a bunch of CY votes.

 

I'm a fan of using peripherals and fielding-independent numbers for predictive purposes, but when we're assessing a guy's season in retrospect I think it's fair to just judge him by what he accomplished on the field. And from that standpoint, Erv's 2017 was arguably (maybe even unarguably) the best for a Twin since Johan's 2006.

[Danchat]

I would be OK with a Santana trade if:

 

1 - The return is good and the Twins get player(s) that can contribute within the next year or so.

2 - The rotation has been filled with new/better options, not having Gibson and May/Gonsalves penciled in

3 - The FO is convinced Santana is going to regress harshly

 

The chances that all three of these combine is very unlikely, so I don't see a trade happening. But I could very well see Santana regress big time and post a 5.00+ ERA in 2018. Hopefully this doesn't happen and Santana can be a solid #2/3 starter as they push for the playoffs again in 2018.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I like Ervin and he's a fine low 2, high 3 pitcher. There is value there, but its hard to imagine his decline stopping. I've been recommending trade since trade deadline 2016. His value only drops as he gets older and his years of control at a great price gets shorter.

I agree with the bolded but the rest kind of loses me.

 

Why do the Twins care about anyone's value beyond their on-field performance right now? To be perfectly blunt, I don't give a rat's ass about Santana's trade value because the Twins made the postseason and Santana helped them get there.

 

Pick up another arm and let Santana help them get to the postseason again. One aspect of baseball fandom I don't really understand is the constant need to maximize trade value in every single player. Some guys give you their value on the field and help you win games and that's what matters.

 

If the Twins were coming off another 72 win season, sure. Trade Santana and get what you can out of him. But why on earth would you trade a guy that can help you win baseball games in the offseason following a postseason appearance when you have one of the youngest rosters in baseball? You go find players to help that guy, you don't just trade him away.*

 

*every player should be traded if the deal just blows you away and/or improves the MLB team

[Broker]

Trading our best pitcher seem kind of silly to me. We need more good pitchers not less.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The only way I trade Santana is if he's picking up a prospect that the Rays covet and can be used with another prospect of ours that they covet to get Archer. Otherwise, I don't see the point in trading him. I'd argue that if he hits his 200 innings, then he likely had a good year and I'd be perfectly fine with him being around on a 1 year deal for less than a QO.

 

I really think this overthinks things...

[drjim]

 

I agree with the bolded but the rest kind of loses me.

 

Why do the Twins care about anyone's value beyond their on-field performance right now? To be perfectly blunt, I don't give a rat's ass about Santana's trade value because the Twins made the postseason and Santana helped them get there.

 

Pick up another arm and let Santana help them get to the postseason again. One aspect of baseball fandom I don't really understand is the constant need to maximize trade value in every single player. Some guys give you their value on the field and help you win games and that's what matters.

 

If the Twins were coming off another 72 win season, sure. Trade Santana and get what you can out of him. But why on earth would you trade a guy that can help you win baseball games in the offseason following a postseason appearance when you have one of the youngest rosters in baseball? You go find players to help that guy, you don't just trade him away.*

 

*every player should be traded if the deal just blows you away and/or improves the MLB team

 

This whole post is right but the bolded part nails it. The value for Santana right now is that he is going to help the 2018 Twins win ballgames. If you traded him, you'd have to replace him with someone similar (or more realistically, 2-3 someones similar).

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

gunnarthor, on 28 Nov 2017 - 10:04 PM, said:

 

If you think Santana can pitch about 190 innings next year with a ERA+ of around 100 then you should keep him because we don't have five pitchers that will beat that. He's not blocking anyone and the Twins window is currently open. They shouldn't worry about 2019 when they should be worrying about 2018.

And if you think ownership is worried about paying a 36 year old pitcher 14m then how are you going to convince the same owner to pay Darvish 25m per year for his 35-37 years?gunnarthor, on 28 Nov 2017 - 10:04 PM, said:

 

The idea of trading off Santana doesn't make sense unless you think he'll turn into a pumpkin - in which case you should also think he has no trade value, esp to rebuilding teams that should horde younger players.

If you think Santana can pitch about 190 innings next year with a ERA+ of around 100 then you should keep him because we don't have five pitchers that will beat that. He's not blocking anyone and the Twins window is currently open. They shouldn't worry about 2019 when they should be worrying about 2018.

And if you think ownership is worried about paying a 36 year old pitcher 14m then how are you going to convince the same owner to pay Darvish 25m per year for his 35-37 years?

 

 

 

The bottom line is, is Darvish THAT much better than Santana? Santana plus $11 million per year (the difference in their projected salaries at age 36)? 

 

Yes Darvish may be better. We should be going after top-of-the-line starting pitching talent. No question. But to add Darvish and trade Santana – when you need two pitchers at the front end of your rotation makes little sense.

 

We should pursue Ohtani too – I'd love to see him hit AND pitch in a Twins uniform. But he's never pitched in the minor leagues here, or in the majors. No one knows how he will do. He could be another Darvish, or a Kevin Tapani or a Mike Pelfrey. No one knows. So you can hope he'll be great, but you cannot count on him for the top of your rotation, like you can a Darvish or Santana.

 

[jimmer]

 

I agree with the bolded but the rest kind of loses me.

 

Why do the Twins care about anyone's value beyond their on-field performance right now? To be perfectly blunt, I don't give a rat's ass about Santana's trade value because the Twins made the postseason and Santana helped them get there.

 

Pick up another arm and let Santana help them get to the postseason again. One aspect of baseball fandom I don't really understand is the constant need to maximize trade value in every single player. Some guys give you their value on the field and help you win games and that's what matters.

 

If the Twins were coming off another 72 win season, sure. Trade Santana and get what you can out of him. But why on earth would you trade a guy that can help you win baseball games in the offseason following a postseason appearance when you have one of the youngest rosters in baseball? You go find players to help that guy, you don't just trade him away.*

 

*every player should be traded if the deal just blows you away and/or improves the MLB team

The value I was referring to was in regards to trade value.  If you don't think we should trade him, then that's fine.  We just disagree on that.

[EddieMatthews]

Last year's hot stove was boiling over with expectations of a regression by Santana.  Same pot is on the stove this year.  Maybe he's learned a little in the past few years.  His 3-year span with the Twins is the best three year span in his career.  He has 40% of his WAR in the past 3 years.  He has the best defense behind him in his career (a little bias noted here).  

 

Let's see who steps up in 2018.  There are candidates, May, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Hughes (?), plus minor league starters who may light up spring training.  None of them would be as good as Santana.  

 

I would love for the Twins to sign a top starter.  Darvish is not the #1 ace they need.  Twins should keep their powder dry.  They should not be wasting it on less than top talent.

 

2018 will not be a World Series year.  2019 could be if their young stars continue to develop and a couple of starters (Berrios, May, ?) step up.  Then, adding the ace will pay big dividends.  With the supporting cast on the 2019 Twins, an ace in search of the WS ring will be happy to play in MN.

[Deduno Abides]

Everyone, including and especially the FO, wants a competitive team this year. That said, it would be good to trade Santana this year if three conditions occur:

 

1. Two superior pitchers are acquired first,

2. The FO has confidence in its revamped pitcher development program, and

3. You can get a return better than what Jaime Garcia brought.

 

I think #3 is the most certain, because Santana is probably a better pitcher than Garcia and his option year gives extra value. #1 will be easy to tell, but not until it happens, but #2 is something that will be known by the FO long before fans see evidence.

[GP830]

Everyone, including and especially the FO, wants a competitive team this year. That said, it would be good to trade Santana this year if three conditions occur:

 

1. Two superior pitchers are acquired first,

2. The FO has confidence in its revamped pitcher development program, and

3. You can get a return better than what Jaime Garcia brought.

 

I think #3 is the most certain, because Santana is probably a better pitcher than Garcia and his option year gives extra value. #1 will be easy to tell, but not until it happens, but #2 is something that will be known by the FO long before fans see evidence.

I️ think that about sums it up- though I️ would maybe even modify your first point to say 3 pitchers instead of 3.

[kab21]

 

Last year's hot stove was boiling over with expectations of a regression by Santana.  Same pot is on the stove this year.  Maybe he's learned a little in the past few years.  His 3-year span with the Twins is the best three year span in his career.  He has 40% of his WAR in the past 3 years.  He has the best defense behind him in his career (a little bias noted here).  

 

Let's see who steps up in 2018.  There are candidates, May, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Hughes (?), plus minor league starters who may light up spring training.  None of them would be as good as Santana.  

 

I would love for the Twins to sign a top starter.  Darvish is not the #1 ace they need.  Twins should keep their powder dry.  They should not be wasting it on less than top talent.

 

2018 will not be a World Series year.  2019 could be if their young stars continue to develop and a couple of starters (Berrios, May, ?) step up.  Then, adding the ace will pay big dividends.  With the supporting cast on the 2019 Twins, an ace in search of the WS ring will be happy to play in MN.

Which FA starter are you targeting in 2019 that satisfies your criteria? Kershaw or bust?

That is the problem with your plan imo. There are no guarantees that any top starter makes it to FA next year.

[Deduno Abides]

This was a fun column. Here’s a proposal.

 

Ervin Santana ($13.5M + $14M option) plus Phil Hughes ($13.2M, $13.2M) plus Wander Javier to Atlanta for Kyle Wright and a lower prospect.

[Hollywood42]

 

This was a fun column. Here’s a proposal.

Ervin Santana ($13.5M + $14M option) plus Phil Hughes ($13.2M, $13.2M) plus Wander Javier to Atlanta for Kyle Wright and a lower prospect.

 

No... Just no.... Getting rid of Hughes and his money would be nice, but that's about it

[kab21]

 

No... Just no.... Getting rid of Hughes and his money would be nice, but that's about it

The Twins save 27M next season and they get the better prospect. And that prospect is a highly ranked pitching prospect. I am not sure what you object to but this would be a great deal and I don't know why the Braves would do it.

The Twins would have to turn around and bring in two very good pitchers though (27M extra to play with) and that could prove difficult but they would have one more very highly ranked prospect to deal and this could be the missing piece of a Chris Archer trade.

[gunnarthor]

 

The idea of trading off Santana doesn't make sense unless you think he'll turn into a pumpkin - in which case you should also think he has no trade value, esp to rebuilding teams that should horde younger players.

 

If you think Santana can pitch about 190 innings next year with a ERA+ of around 100 then you should keep him because we don't have five pitchers that will beat that. He's not blocking anyone and the Twins window is currently open. They shouldn't worry about 2019 when they should be worrying about 2018.

 

And if you think ownership is worried about paying a 36 year old pitcher 14m then how are you going to convince the same owner to pay Darvish 25m per year for his 35-37 years?

Huh. Outside of a comment I made about Yvonne Strahovski, this seems to be my most liked comment on TD. 

 

Nick, you're wrong!

[Linus]

I think people are under valuing Erv. He's not an elite starter but then there are only a handful of those. He is reliable, durable and mostly effective. Considering a multi year window he's been the Twins best starter since Johan. He won't be as easily replaced as some posters think.

[drjim]

 

I think people are under valuing Erv. He's not an elite starter but then there are only a handful of those. He is reliable, durable and mostly effective. Considering a multi year window he's been the Twins best starter since Johan. He won't be as easily replaced as some posters think.

 

True this. Making 30+ starts at league average ERA is very valuable, even moreso for a team like the Twins who have such glaring holes in both the rotation and bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

Santana gave up 31 HR last year, and fortunately 20 of them were solo shots. Of the 11 HR he gave up with runners on, 7 of them occurred in the nine games between June 3 and July 21, the stretch where Santana was absolutely brutal and his early season glow had worn off.

 

He gave up tons of HR all through the season last year but got by early and late because his HR were almost exclusively solo. I'm in the minority, but yeah, I do think Santana falls apart next year. He somehow had his best H/9 and WHIP season at the age of 34 so he kept guys off the bases when he gave up the bombs, but his HR totals skyrocketed and his strikeout rate is failing to keep up with the increasing league trends. 

 

If he was a free agent with no ties to the Twins we'd all be looking at his peripheral numbers and nobody would want to trust him on a multi year deal.