Article: The Twins Should Be Shopping Ervin Santana

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

If he was a free agent with no ties to the Twins we'd all be looking at his peripheral numbers and nobody would want to trust him on a multi year deal.

Oh, I dunno. Lot of people want Lance Lynn. Twins have been tied to Jake Odroizzi. There are legit question marks about Alex Cobb. I suspect Santana would the clear #3 on the FA market behind Darvish and Arrieta.

 

And the Twins don't have to worry about Santana on a multi-year deal either. If he pitches enough to trigger his option then we're good. If he's a pumpkin, he won't trigger his option.

Edited November 30, 2017 by gunnarthor

[Nick Nelson]

 

Pick up another arm and let Santana help them get to the postseason again. One aspect of baseball fandom I don't really understand is the constant need to maximize trade value in every single player. Some guys give you their value on the field and help you win games and that's what matters.

 

If the Twins were coming off another 72 win season, sure. Trade Santana and get what you can out of him. But why on earth would you trade a guy that can help you win baseball games in the offseason following a postseason appearance when you have one of the youngest rosters in baseball? You go find players to help that guy, you don't just trade him away.*

My issue is that this is the same kind of thinking that prompted Bill Smith and Company to go out and re-sign Carl Pavano after the 2010 season. You can't get caught up in what a guy did; you need to focus on what he's going to do. 

 

Much like 2017 Erv, 2010 Pavano was a popular veteran workhorse who helped lead MN to the postseason. Threw 220 innings, 7 complete games, outperformed his peripherals. He was the same age as Santana is now (34). The Twins felt like they needed to "let [Pavano] help them get to the postseason again." They signed him to a two-year deal, forfeiting draft compensation they'd have received by letting him land elsewhere. 

 

But, as it tends to go, a 35-year-old well-worn Pavano was far less effective in 2011, swinging to the opposite side of his FIP, and in 2012 at age 36 he broke down. 

 

Not saying the situations are identical (obviously Pavano had a much worse long-term health history) but the similarities are hard to ignore. I want a front office that is proactive and anticipatory. This is an opportunity to do just that, IF you can find the right match.

[Kelly Vance]

 

Accept both he and Berrios can't beat the Yankees as evidence this year in the WC game.

Hello? It was ONE GAME.  You don't make a blanket pronouncement based on one game. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Oh, I dunno. Lot of people want Lance Lynn. Twins have been tied to Jake Odroizzi. There are legit question marks about Alex Cobb. I suspect Santana would the clear #3 on the FA market behind Darvish and Arrieta.

 

And the Twins don't have to worry about Santana on a multi-year deal either. If he pitches enough to trigger his option then we're good. If he's a pumpkin, he won't trigger his option.

1) Lance Lynn is 5 years younger than Santana and his career ERA/FIP are both substantially lower. I see zero chance Erv would be more coveted than him, and Cobb would also be higher on almost every list.

 

2) This point keeps getting repeated but it's far from a given. Per the example I cited in the post above, Pavano threw 220 innings in 2011 as a 35-year-old with a 4.30 ERA, declining velo, and the most hits allowed in the league. Did anyone really feel great about bringing him back in 2012 at that point? Is it that hard to envision a similar scenario with Santana? Again: his 2017 season was very similar to Pavano's 2010 in a number of ways.

[nicksaviking]

 

1) Lance Lynn is 5 years younger than Santana and his career ERA/FIP are both substantially lower. I see zero chance Erv would be more coveted than him, and Cobb would also be higher on almost every list.

 

2) This point keeps getting repeated but it's far from a given. Per the example I cited in the post above, Pavano threw 220 innings in 2011 as a 35-year-old with a 4.30 ERA, declining velo, and the most hits allowed in the league. Did anyone really feel great about bringing him back in 2012 at that point? Is it that hard to envision a similar scenario with Santana? Again: his 2017 season was very similar to Pavano's 2010 in a number of ways.

 

Yup, the Twins need to stop being the team holding the bag on these guys when they go bust. 

 

If The Twins signed two superior pitchers and Santana was the #4, I really wouldn't care either way if he's traded. But this team should not be going into 2018 with both title hopes and a blind eye to what has happened to every other veteran starting pitcher this team has acquired.

[nicksaviking]

 

Oh, I dunno. Lot of people want Lance Lynn. Twins have been tied to Jake Odroizzi. There are legit question marks about Alex Cobb. I suspect Santana would the clear #3 on the FA market behind Darvish and Arrieta.

 

And the Twins don't have to worry about Santana on a multi-year deal either. If he pitches enough to trigger his option then we're good. If he's a pumpkin, he won't trigger his option.

 

Santana and his age and peripherals would be closer to John Lackey on the free agent market than to Cobb and Lynn, neither of whom I want. This team needs to remove high contact arms, not add them.

[jimmer]

Those are fine arguments, and I'd probably be inclined to agree, but they're not definitive by any means. I'd say Hughes and Liriano pitched better but they did not stack up in terms of results. Santana has both of them beat in IP, ERA, WHIP, CG, shutouts, etc. Was an All Star and got a bunch of CY votes.

 

I'm a fan of using peripherals and fielding-independent numbers for predictive purposes, but when we're assessing a guy's season in retrospect I think it's fair to just judge him by what he accomplished on the field. And from that standpoint, Erv's 2017 was arguably (maybe even unarguably) the best for a Twin since Johan's 2006.

well, Ervin Santana didnt get 'a bunch' of CY votes. Out of 30 voters, he got three 5th place votes (giving him a whopping. 3 points in CY voting). At least one of the votes was by a Minnesota writer.

 

What happens when you compare him to Liriano's 2010 and Hughes' 2014 when looking at Ks, BB,K/9 ratio, FIP. All thosethings happened too. Those are all results of what the pitcher did (including FIP). FIP gives us a better indicator of what a pitcher did than, say, a runs allowed based model because runs allowed is affected by many things out of the pitchers control. Not only is it a better indictor for future pitcher performance than ERA, its a better teller of how well the pitcher did too.

 

And not just those, how did Santana' babip, which was about 90 points lower than Lirianos '10 and Hughes' '14, play into his numbers?

 

You want to give Ervin credit for the defense he had behind him this year,awesome; however,I like to give credit to pitchers for what they do.

 

Santans fWAR was 2.9, Hughes was 5.9 and Lirianos was 5.7.

Edited November 30, 2017 by jimmer

[laloesch]

 

Hello? It was ONE GAME.  You don't make a blanket pronouncement based on one game. 

 

Sure you do.  And they didn't just lose they got their asses handed to them in that game.  Sorry.

Edited November 30, 2017 by laloesch

[Nick Nelson]

 

well, Ervin Santana didnt get 'a bunch' of CY votes. He got three 5th place votes, at least one by a Minnesota writer.

What happens when you compare him to Liriano's 2010 and Hughes' 2014 when looking at Ks, BB,K/9 ratio, FIP. All thosethings happened too. Those are all results of what the pitcher did (including FIP). FIP gives us a better indicator of what a pitcher did than, say, a runs allowed based model because runs allowed is affetced by many tjings out of the pitcers conttol. Not only is it a better indictor for future pitcher performance than ERA, its a better teller of how well the pitcher did too.

And not just those, how did Santana' babip, which was about 90 points lower than Lirianos '10 and Hughes' '14, play into his numbers?

You want to give Ervin credit for the defense he had behind him this year,awesome; however,I like to give credit to pitchers for what they do.

Santans fWAR was 2.9, Hughes was 5.9 and Lirianos was 5.7.

I don't know why you're pushing this so hard. I was responding to the idea that Santana's season wasn't even "arguably" better than Hughes or Liriano. An argument can be made both ways, and you're making a fine one for the other side. As I've already said, I probably lean more in that direction myself. 

 

But not everyone thinks FIP matters more than ERA, not everyone thinks BABIP is a complete function of luck and defense, and not everyone gives a darn about fWAR for pitchers. In fact, I'd say the majority of baseball fans probably don't. Santana threw more innings and while allowing fewer baserunners and fewer runs. It's that simple.

[gunnarthor]

 

1) Lance Lynn is 5 years younger than Santana and his career ERA/FIP are both substantially lower. I see zero chance Erv would be more coveted than him, and Cobb would also be higher on almost every list.

 

2) This point keeps getting repeated but it's far from a given. Per the example I cited in the post above, Pavano threw 220 innings in 2011 as a 35-year-old with a 4.30 ERA, declining velo, and the most hits allowed in the league. Did anyone really feel great about bringing him back in 2012 at that point? Is it that hard to envision a similar scenario with Santana? Again: his 2017 season was very similar to Pavano's 2010 in a number of ways.

I love in the post right before this you say "we can't look at what they did!" and immediately do that.

 

If both were FA, Santana would be #3 behind Darvish and Arriata.  Lynn would be looking for that 100m deal and would likely get 4/60m or so. Santana would end up getting 2/30 or so b/c of his age. Seems like some people might say a 31 year old coming off a near 5.00 fip after surgery with control problems might not be the safe bet.

 

In any event, you keep making the same argument - Santana is a pumpkin. Fine, we get it. Then the Twins should sell him for peanuts. But it's possible that fip isn't the end-all, be-all stat. Or that a strong defense negates it. Or that his fip may go down. His fastball didn't decrease last year. He's remained very durable (oops, that's looking at past history, my bad). His k-rate and walk rates were essentially the same. The big change was more flyballs = more home runs this year, which is why fip and fWAR didn't like him as much. 

 

Looking at a batted ball profile a few things jump out - he gave up more flyballs and infield flys than he usually does while lowering the amount of line drive hits. Is that random? Is that how he and Castro decided to attack opposing players? More stuff up in the zone? I have no idea. But I think if you want to trade him and lose 200 innings you'd really want to know for sure. 

[jimmer]

I don't know why you're pushing this so hard. I was responding to the idea that Santana's season wasn't even "arguably" better than Hughes or Liriano. An argument can be made both ways, and you're making a fine one for the other side. As I've already said, I probably lean more in that direction myself.

 

But not everyone thinks FIP matters more than ERA, not everyone thinks BABIP is a complete function of luck and defense, and not everyone gives a darn about fWAR for pitchers. In fact, I'd say the majority of baseball fans probably don't. Santana threw more innings and while allowing fewer baserunners and fewer runs. It's that simple.

You are right, it is simple.

 

As far as what the majority of baseball fans think about anything, much less FIP, I dont buy that whatever the majority thinks is what is correct.

 

Anyway, we are just talking, not sure why you are getting worked up. I'll move on.

Edited November 30, 2017 by jimmer

[Nick Nelson]

 

You are right, it is simple.

Anyway, we are just talking, not sure why you are getting worked up. I'll move on.

I'm not worked up. It just seems like you're trying really hard to convince me of something I already agree with      Trust me, I'm personally more partial to the metrics you cited. I just wouldn't call someone wrong for saying Ervin's year was better, and might make that case myself if we're looking strictly at results and outcomes.

 

Also, for what it's worth, here's how WAR shakes out for those three pitchers if we use Baseball Ref's version instead of FG:

 

Santana: 4.6

Liriano: 4.4

Hughes: 4.3

[gunnarthor]

For what it's worth - honest question, is it worth anything? - Steamer predicts Santana to throw 184 innings and be about 1.9 fWAR next year. Lynn they have at 150ip and 1.5 fWAR w/Santana having the slightly lower fip.

[jimmer]

I'm not worked up. It just seems like you're trying really hard to convince me of something I already agree with Trust me, I'm personally more partial to the metrics you cited. I just wouldn't call someone wrong for saying Ervin's year was better, and might make that case myself if we're looking strictly at results and outcomes.

 

Also, for what it's worth, here's how WAR shakes out for those three pitchers if we use Baseball Ref's version instead of FG:

 

Santana: 4.6

Liriano: 4.4

Hughes: 4.3

because bWAR is a runs allowed driven metric for pitchers, which takes into account many things outside the pitchers control.

 

Anyway, have a good one.

[Nick Nelson]

 

In any event, you keep making the same argument - Santana is a pumpkin. Fine, we get it. Then the Twins should sell him for peanuts. But it's possible that fip isn't the end-all, be-all stat. Or that a strong defense negates it. Or that his fip may go down. His fastball didn't decrease last year. He's remained very durable (oops, that's looking at past history, my bad). His k-rate and walk rates were essentially the same. The big change was more flyballs = more home runs this year, which is why fip and fWAR didn't like him as much. 

I didn't say he's a pumpkin. My expectation is that he'll perform up to his career trends going forward (~4.00 ERA, ~4.20 FIP), maybe even a little better if he's truly turned a late corner, making him a fine pitcher and a desirable target for other teams. I simply think it's logical to swap him out for a younger arm with a lower likelihood of attrition from age and wear.

 

The money reallocation and the prospects coming back are what make this concept appealing to me. I'm not trying to just dump Santana because I think he's guaranteed to implode. I assume he'd be a very capable, valuable pitcher for a team like the Reds.

[gunnarthor]

 

I didn't say he's a pumpkin. My expectation is that he'll perform up to his career trends going forward (~4.00 ERA, ~4.20 FIP), maybe even a little better if he's truly turned a late corner, making him a fine pitcher and a desirable target for other teams. I simply think it's logical to swap him out for a younger arm with a lower likelihood of attrition from age and wear.

 

The money reallocation and the prospects coming back are what make this concept appealing to me. I'm not trying to just dump Santana because I think he's guaranteed to implode. I assume he'd be a very capable, valuable pitcher for a team like the Reds.

I cannot for the life of me see why the Reds, an obvious rebuilding team, would take on Santana (and potentially 27m) for Stephenson. That's madness. 

 

Santana isn't a fit for a rebuilding team. He'd make sense for the Angels or Seattle or any other playoff contention team that wants to make their rotation deeper.

[Kelly Vance]

 

Sure you do.  And they didn't just lose they got their asses handed to them in that game.  Sorry.

That's so bogus. The best teams lose 70 games.  Yu Darvish's bad WS appearance is also meaningless. I repeat and add "Nobody in MLB makes these decisions based on one game. Nobody  

[laloesch]

 

That's so bogus. The best teams lose 70 games.  Yu Darvish's bad WS appearance is also meaningless. I repeat and add "Nobody in MLB makes these decisions based on one game. Nobody  

 

Until the Twins find a starter(s) that can consistently compete with the Yankees i will continue to hold my position on this.  I am not satisfied with the status quo as it's been failing us since 2002.  Now the offense did their part in that game, but our two best starters utterly failed.  I am not satisfied period. 

 

The Twins lost the season series 4 games to 2. including all three in NY.  NY has a .730 winning percentage against Minnesota since 2002 which is mind numbing and soul crushing as a fan and it needs to end.  If those two can't do it than find two others that can.  Twins pitchers have a combined collective 5.09 era against the Yankees dating all the way back to 2002 and have surrendered over 120 home runs in that stretch.  That is atrocious and completely unacceptable!

[Nick Nelson]

 

I cannot for the life of me see why the Reds, an obvious rebuilding team, would take on Santana (and potentially 27m) for Stephenson. That's madness. 

 

Santana isn't a fit for a rebuilding team. He'd make sense for the Angels or Seattle or any other playoff contention team that wants to make their rotation deeper.

I view it through the same lens as the Royals trading Wil Myers for James Shields following a 4th straight 90-loss season. Eventually, when a rebuild is stalling out, you need to do something to kick it into gear. Especially true for the Reds, who are wasting what remains of Votto's prime. 

 

Cincy's leading starter in IP in 2017 (Adleman) threw 120, and just signed with a Korean team. What's it worth for them to gain some desperately needed stability in the rotation? Maybe not Stephenson, but I think more than some people here are presuming.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

If he was a free agent with no ties to the Twins we'd all be looking at his peripheral numbers and nobody would want to trust him on a multi year deal.

 

and the beauty of this is that we don't have him on a multi-year deal... unless he does well (i.e. 200 IP type well).

[drjim]

I view it through the same lens as the Royals trading Wil Myers for James Shields following a 4th straight 90-loss season. Eventually, when a rebuild is stalling out, you need to do something to kick it into gear. Especially true for the Reds, who are wasting what remains of Votto's prime.

 

Cincy's leading starter in IP in 2017 (Adleman) threw 120, and just signed with a Korean team. What's it worth for them to gain some desperately needed stability in the rotation? Maybe not Stephenson, but I think more than some people here are presuming.

The Royals rebuild was stalled out?

 

If the Reds really want a veteran stabilizer, there are a handful of guys they can sign for a year that will cost less than Erv and not involve a prospect. They'll likely perform worse, but that doesn't strike me as a critical concern this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My issue is that this is the same kind of thinking that prompted Bill Smith and Company to go out and re-sign Carl Pavano after the 2010 season. You can't get caught up in what a guy did; you need to focus on what he's going to do. 

 

Much like 2017 Erv, 2010 Pavano was a popular veteran workhorse who helped lead MN to the postseason. Threw 220 innings, 7 complete games, outperformed his peripherals. He was the same age as Santana is now (34). The Twins felt like they needed to "let [Pavano] help them get to the postseason again." They signed him to a two-year deal, forfeiting draft compensation they'd have received by letting him land elsewhere. 

 

But, as it tends to go, a 35-year-old well-worn Pavano was far less effective in 2011, swinging to the opposite side of his FIP, and in 2012 at age 36 he broke down. 

 

Not saying the situations are identical (obviously Pavano had a much worse long-term health history) but the similarities are hard to ignore. I want a front office that is proactive and anticipatory. This is an opportunity to do just that, IF you can find the right match.

Santana was a bit "lucky" but if you dig into his numbers, they weren't that out of line with his career. He allowed a few more flyballs but cut down on line drives and increased his IFFB rate. That BABIP wasn't as out of whack as it looks at a glance and this is one of those cases where I'm unwilling to let the FIP gods rule my opinion of a player. Santana got worse at the things FIP hates (flyballs and therefore, home runs) and better at the things FIP ignores (contact that doesn't drop for hits at the rate FIP expects balls to drop).

 

Even if Santana regresses to his 4.40-ish FIP of 2017, he's a league average pitcher. That is easily worth $13m in 2018. If he manages to pitch 200 innings of league average ball, he'll be worth another $13m in 2019.

 

We're talking about a guy who hasn't seen a significant enough injury to drop under the 175 IP threshold since 2009. I ride that arm until it proves it's no longer capable of doing the job.

 

I'd have a very different opinion of the situation if the Twins had more than two starters I trusted but that isn't the case.

[Jacksson]

Trade with the St. Louis Cardinals

 

Twins Ervin Santana RHP

Ryan Pressly RHP

 

 

SLC Luke Weaver RHP

Austin Gomber LHP

Connor Jones RHP

Andrew Knizner C

[Linus]

I cannot for the life of me see why the Reds, an obvious rebuilding team, would take on Santana (and potentially 27m) for Stephenson. That's madness.

 

Santana isn't a fit for a rebuilding team. He'd make sense for the Angels or Seattle or any other playoff contention team that wants to make their rotation deeper.

Or the Twins and we already have him!

[Brock Beauchamp]

To point out something else about FIP and Santana, he has overperformed his FIP seven out of the past eight seasons, the lone exception that slightly weird season he had in Atlanta.

 

And a lot of the time, it's not particularly close. While 2017 was his biggest FIP/ERA gap, in five of those eight seasons he overperformed his FIP by .4 or more runs.

 

So why are we assuming that Santana will revert to his FIP (or even that his 2017 FIP was a true measure of his performance)? He's closing in on a decade of showing us that FIP isn't particularly relevant to him, particularly if he's playing in front of good defenses, as he is in Minnesota, was in Kansas City, and (IIRC) was in Anaheim before he left.

 

Another fun fact that's mostly irrelevant but interesting to note: Santana's career low in BABIP was not 2017 but his 2012 campaign with the Angels, where he posted a .241 BABIP... In what was probably his worst season as an MLB pitcher.

[KirbyDome89]

 

and the beauty of this is that we don't have him on a multi-year deal... unless he does well (i.e. 200 IP type well).

The only way he isn't hitting 200 IP is if he misses significant time due to injury so in essence it's multiple years. Even severe regression and a poor 18' campaign isn't enough to keep the ball out of his hand as long as he's healthy enough to pitch. Thats more or an indictment of the rest of the staff than praise for Ervin's durability. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The only way he isn't hitting 200 IP is if he misses significant time due to injury so in essence it's multiple years. Even severe regression and a poor 18' campaign isn't enough to keep the ball out of his hand as long as he's healthy enough to pitch. Thats more or an indictment of the rest of the staff than praise for Ervin's durability. 

 

Honestly, if he hits it, it means he was largely effective. He led the league in complete game shutouts this year and only made it 211 innings. Any drop in his effectiveness and he doesn't hit 200 IP.

[BK432]

 

Trade with the St. Louis Cardinals

Twins Ervin Santana RHP
Ryan Pressly RHP


SLC Luke Weaver RHP
Austin Gomber LHP
Connor Jones RHP
Andrew Knizner C

 

I think Luke Weaver is already better than Erv, so I'm not sure I get this trade proposal.

[Mr. Brooks]

The only way he isn't hitting 200 IP is if he misses significant time due to injury so in essence it's multiple years. Even severe regression and a poor 18' campaign isn't enough to keep the ball out of his hand as long as he's healthy enough to pitch. Thats more or an indictment of the rest of the staff than praise for Ervin's durability.

One less out per start and he misses it last year. He's absolutely not hitting 200 IP if he shows "severe regression".

[DJL44]

The Twins should be shopping FOR Ervin Santana. Get him a nice Christmas present.