Trading for Pitchers: What would you give up for each player?

[Baseball Bat]

Respond to as many as you like. Just curious what people think is an expected return for the below players (All have some degree of availability via trade).

 

SP Gerrit Cole – 2 Years of Team Control
2018 (28) – Arbitration 2
2019 (29) – Arbitration 3

 

SP Chris Archer – 4 Years of Team Control
2018 (30) - $6.25 M
2019 (31) - $7.50 M
2020 (32) - $8.25 M Team Option
2021 (33) - $8.25 M Team Option

 

SP Jake Odorizzi – 2 Years of Team Control
2018 (28) – Arbitration 2
2019 (29) – Arbitration 3

 

SP Dan Straily – 3 Years of Team Control
2018 (29) – Arbitration 1
2019 (30) – Arbitration 2
2020 (31) – Arbitration 3

 

SP Marcus Stroman – 3 Years of Team Control
2018 (27) – Arbitration 2
2019 (28) – Arbitration 3
2020 (29) – Arbitration 4

 

RP Kelvin Herrera – 1 Year of Team Control
2018 (28) – Arbitration 4

 

RP Raisal Iglesias - 3 Years of Team Control
2018 (28) - $4.5 M
2019 (29) - $5.0 M
2020 (30) - $5.0 M

 

RP Zach Britton - 1 Year of Team Control
2018 (30) – Arbitration 3

 

RP Justin Wilson  - 1 Year of Team Control
2018 (31) – Arbitration 3

 

RP Dellin Betances – 2 Years of Team Control
2018 (30) – Arbitration 2
2019 (31) – Arbitration 3

 

RP Felipe Rivero – 4 Years of Team Control
2018 (27) – Arbitration 1
2019 (28) – Arbitration 2
2020 (29) – Arbitration 3
2021 (30) – Arbitration 4

 

RP Brad Brach – 1 Year of Team Control
2018 (32) – Arbitration 3

 

RP Brad Hand – 2 Years of Team Control
2018 (28) – Arbitration 2
2019 (29) – Arbitration 3

 

RP Ken Giles – 3 Years of Team Control
2018 (28) – Arbitration 1
2019 (29) – Arbitration 2
2020 (30) – Arbitration 3

[gunnarthor]

Cole and Stroman I'd do Gordon, Romero and Thorpe. Archer would cost more than that and I wouldn't do that. Stroman probably costs more than Cole but I'm not sure.

 

Straily and Odrozzi aren't that good. Maybe Romero and a guy like Wade. Basically, one top 100 guy and another piece.

 

I don't know enough about the relief pitcher arms but I don't think I'd do Gordon and Romero for a reliever. Maybe one top 100 guy. I'd rather spend the cash on Shaw, for example.

[DJSim22]

I like obtaining Stroman the most of the starters. Gordon, Gonsales, and Burdi.

 

I don't want to trade for any relievers.  Sign a couple FA's. 

[spinowner]

I would absolutely love to get Archer. But so would 28 other teams. Consequently it's a seller's market and the Rays would have to be blown away by an offer. Falvine are too smart to overpay by the amount needed to get him.

[laloesch]

Cole and Stroman I'd do Gordon, Romero and Thorpe. Archer would cost more than that and I wouldn't do that. Stroman probably costs more than Cole but I'm not sure.

 

Straily and Odrozzi aren't that good. Maybe Romero and a guy like Wade. Basically, one top 100 guy and another piece.

 

I don't know enough about the relief pitcher arms but I don't think I'd do Gordon and Romero for a reliever. Maybe one top 100 guy. I'd rather spend the cash on Shaw, for example.

I wouldn't give up Thorpe. I'd probably be willing to part with Gonsalves as a substitute.

[brvama]

At Pirates Breakdown there was an interesting article about trading with the Twins for Cole, They seem to like Gonsalves as a headliner for Cole. Seems Gordon is redundant to their MI strength of prospects. And they view the floor on Gonsalves as mid-rotation SP at the least. Their dream trade would be for Rosario. The article is here http://piratesbreakdown.com/2017/11/22/pittsburgh-pirates-twins-trade/

[nytwinsfan]

 

Cole and Stroman I'd do Gordon, Romero and Thorpe. Archer would cost more than that and I wouldn't do that. Stroman probably costs more than Cole but I'm not sure.

 

Straily and Odrozzi aren't that good. Maybe Romero and a guy like Wade. Basically, one top 100 guy and another piece.

 

I don't know enough about the relief pitcher arms but I don't think I'd do Gordon and Romero for a reliever. Maybe one top 100 guy. I'd rather spend the cash on Shaw, for example.

Wouldn't give up Gordon, Romero and Thorpe for 2 years of Cole. Maybe for 3 years of Stroman, but even there, I'm not sure. Otherwise agree.

[laloesch]

At Pirates Breakdown there was an interesting article about trading with the Twins for Cole, They seem to like Gonsalves as a headliner for Cole. Seems Gordon is redundant to their MI strength of prospects. And they view the floor on Gonsalves as mid-rotation SP at the least. Their dream trade would be for Rosario. The article is here http://piratesbreakdown.com/2017/11/22/pittsburgh-pirates-twins-trade/

The writer seems to think that a package centered around Dozier + Gonsalves + a catcher (Garver or Rortvedt) could be a potential package. There have also been suggestions to add Gibson as well to reduce the sting of losing Cole a bit. That said it seems like A LOT to give up for two years of cost controlled Cole especially after his last two seasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wouldn't give up Gordon, Romero and Thorpe for 2 years of Cole. Maybe for 3 years of Stroman, but even there, I'm not sure. Otherwise agree.

Yeah, i want a theee year guy if I’m going to loot the farm. I don’t think the Twins peak until 2019 at the earliest.

[laloesch]

Wouldn't give up Gordon, Romero and Thorpe for 2 years of Cole. Maybe for 3 years of Stroman, but even there, I'm not sure. Otherwise agree.

I can't imagine them giving up Romero and Thorpe in one deal. That's a very high price to pay for Cole. The Twins would be giving up two of their best starting pitching prospects with top of the rotation potential. Pass. Maybe one but not both. If they really want a major league ready arm give them Gonsalves or Littell but not both Romero and Thorpe.

[laloesch]

Chris Archer intrigues me. Undoubtedly the Rays would want top pitching talent in return but they also could use a solid 2nd baseman and left fielder. Would a deal centered on Dozier + Rosario + Gonsalves + Littell get it done? If they aren't interested in Dozier you could change him out with Gordon. If Gonsalves isn't good enough perhaps Thorpe or Romero as other options.

 

Losing Rosario + Dozier would be painful but the Twins have depth at 2nd/short and many here have been itching to deal Rosario at the right time. Perhaps this would be the deal to do it.

[DocBauer]

Not sure why, but I think Cole interests me more than Archer. Maybe because he'd be a little cheaper to get? Or maybe because he's also 2 years younger with some upside and I'm not entirely convinced Archer is really ACE quality to part with as much as it is suggested to acquire him?

 

No way I part with both Gonsalves and Thorpe. (I'd try like he'll to keep both) Romero may have a higher ceiling than both, but perhaps a lower floor. If you were Pittsburgh, which of the 3 would you rather have? It's a tough question!

 

I'd include Gordon, (And re-sign Dozier). If I'm the Pirates, (and I really like Gordon), I might prefer one of the Twins younger SS, even if they may be further away, based on pure potential. How about Romero, Jorge, Gordon or another SS? I might even include Wade or Blenkenhorn to push the deal over the top. It's a lot to give up, especially for 2 controllable years, but if Cole is the right fit, you also have a lot of money available to re-sign him.

 

With what the Twins have already, and getting very close, and the options in the FA market, I don't like trading for any relievers. I sign a couple FA to work with what I have and feel really good about myself.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see Gonsalves as the center piece in a Cole trade. That wouldn't bother me too much. I like Gonsalves, but he will make his debut this year, and I expect some bumps before he hits whatever his ceiling is. Bottom line, Gonsalves will likely not be an impact on the twins in the next two years. I would trade that for Cole. I'm not sure I'd throw in a ton more high ceiling guys though for him. I could see a high floor guy like Jorge or Slegers and/or maybe a rookie league lotto ticket to make it work.

[old nurse]

 

The writer seems to think that a package centered around Dozier + Gonsalves + a catcher (Garver or Rortvedt) could be a potential package. There have also been suggestions to add Gibson as well to reduce the sting of losing Cole a bit. That said it seems like A LOT to give up for two years of cost controlled Cole especially after his last two seasons.

from the article

If a potential deal does include Dozier, the Pirates can forget about top-level talent, but they should be able to wring at least one decent prospect away from the Twinkies. There are two catchers — Ben Rortvedt  and Mitch Garver — in the Twins’ system at number 21 and number 22, respectively. The Pirates could use a catching prospect in their system (apologies to Jacob Stallings and Jin De Jhang).

 

Although the writer has credentials remember that it is nothing more than an opinion piece

[laloesch]

 

from the article

If a potential deal does include Dozier, the Pirates can forget about top-level talent, but they should be able to wring at least one decent prospect away from the Twinkies. There are two catchers — Ben Rortvedt  and Mitch Garver — in the Twins’ system at number 21 and number 22, respectively. The Pirates could use a catching prospect in their system (apologies to Jacob Stallings and Jin De Jhang).

 

Although the writer has credentials remember that it is nothing more than an opinion piece

 

Right.  Just a discussion of what could be traded.  I expect no deal for Cole.

[Vanimal46]

I would give up a significant amount to acquire either Cole, Stroman, or Archer. With those targets, I would start the bidding at Gordon + Gonsalves then add other players as necessary. 

 

Out of the relievers, I'd try to buy low on Betances. There's no room for him in the Yankees bullpen, and it's clear they don't want to give him high leverage innings after last season. 

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I'd try to get Cole and Rivero in the same trade. Or maybe a Stroman/Osuna package or a Archer or Odorizzi and Colome package. That is if the Twins sign a starter. Because if they sign a starter they won't have much left for a reliever or two.

 

But if they are unable to sign a Darvish or Lynn then I would say spend the money on Shaw and McGee and trade for one of Cole, Stroman, Archer. See how the market plays out first.

 

In a perfect world for me they're able to sign Darvish and a 2nd tier reliever like Kintzler or Nicasio and trade for a starter+reliever package for Mejia, Gordon, Romero, Graterol/Thorpe, and few more lower level players.

[markos]

Based on Fangraph's aging curve methodology and MLBTR's arbitration estimates, here is an approximation of the surplus value for the starting pitchers in question.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html
SP Gerrit Cole: ~$40M
SP Chris Archer: ~$130M
SP Jake Odorizzi: ~$20M
SP Dan Straily: ~$15M
SP Marcus Stroman: ~$70M

 

Based on some older (2016) work estimating the surplus value of the prospects, here is a SWAG at the valuation of the Twins prospects based on their MLB Pipeline ranking.
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects
Gordon: ~$45M
Gonsalves: ~$20M
Romero: ~$20M

 

Looking at a the recent history of player-for-prospect trades, teams generally need to overpay by 50%-100% in order to acquire the player they want. 

 

All that said:

- I think that Gordon + Romero/Gonsalves/Thorpe for Cole is very fair. As I've said in other threads, I don't think it is a winning bid (someone is going to value Cole as a 4+ WAR pitcher rather than the 3ish WAR pitcher he has historically been).

- I don't think the Twins can acquire Archer with prospects.

- Gordon for Odorizzi + something (maybe a reliever) is something I can get behind.

- Not a fan of Straily at all.

- They probably need to put Lewis on the table to acquire Stroman. I don't think I would do that.

[old nurse]

 

Right.  Just a discussion of what could be traded.  I expect no deal for Cole.

Depends on what the Pirate's wizards think the outlook for the season is. If a team thinks McCutchon is the final piece to make a run and gives the Pirates a deal too good to pass up the Pirates could go into sell mode. If they think Cole has peaked and is a peak value they would trade. There is always the offer too good to pass up.

[nicksaviking]

I'd be a bigger fan of Cole (and Stromen) if they'd stop with the sinker and pump up their strikeouts, but I wonder how much value Pittsburgh would put in the Twins taking back a less desirable contract. Are they regretting the Starling Marte deal? What if the Twins gave up Kepler and took on Marte, would the prospect haul need to be less? If not Marte, Gregory Polanco then?

 

Marte's deal wouldn't be an issue for most clubs, maybe it's not for Pittsburgh, or maybe Marte is still seen as a valuable player. I just remember Pittsburgh making some really sketchy decisions lately because they're always so desperate to shed payroll.

[brvama]

The writer seems to think that a package centered around Dozier + Gonsalves + a catcher (Garver or Rortvedt) could be a potential package. There have also been suggestions to add Gibson as well to reduce the sting of losing Cole a bit. That said it seems like A LOT to give up for two years of cost controlled Cole especially after his last two seasons.

I understood that the writer didn't think Dozier would be traded so he went on to the prospects. He then used Gonsalves as the centerpiece with one of the two catchers. Just my interpretation.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Based on Fangraph's aging curve methodology and MLBTR's arbitration estimates, here is an approximation of the surplus value for the starting pitchers in question.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

SP Gerrit Cole: ~$40M

SP Chris Archer: ~$130M

SP Jake Odorizzi: ~$20M

SP Dan Straily: ~$15M

SP Marcus Stroman: ~$70M

 

Based on some older (2016) work estimating the surplus value of the prospects, here is a SWAG at the valuation of the Twins prospects based on their MLB Pipeline ranking.

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

Gordon: ~$45M

Gonsalves: ~$20M

Romero: ~$20M

 

Looking at a the recent history of player-for-prospect trades, teams generally need to overpay by 50%-100% in order to acquire the player they want.

 

All that said:

- I think that Gordon + Romero/Gonsalves/Thorpe for Cole is very fair. As I've said in other threads, I don't think it is a winning bid (someone is going to value Cole as a 4+ WAR pitcher rather than the 3ish WAR pitcher he has historically been).

- I don't think the Twins can acquire Archer with prospects.

- Gordon for Odorizzi + something (maybe a reliever) is something I can get behind.

- Not a fan of Straily at all.

- They probably need to put Lewis on the table to acquire Stroman. I don't think I would do that.

 

Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

 

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

[dbminn]

 

Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

 

Based on 2018 FG projections for Buxton (3.0 WAR) and Sano (3.6), they would have a surplus value of roughly $80M and $105M, respectively. Archer is worth more for two reasons - a slightly higher WAR projection and a team-friendly contract. By FG rankings, Buxton is worth about the same as McCullers and Sano is about the same as Conforto. (Both Sano and Buxton are projected higher now than when the chart was produced in mid-2017). 

 

Not endorsing FG projections on WAR. Adjust according to your preference. IMO, I wouldn't trade either Sano or Buxton straight-up for Archer because I think they have higher upside.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The price I see for Cole makes me not very interested in trading for a pitcher... in part b/c I want Archer more (who will also be more expensive) and b/c Cole has really underperformed and has only 2 years left... I could get behind a package for Archer that would involve Gordon, one of Gonsalves or Romero, a high floor/near ready guy like Jorge, as a starting point for a negotiation for Archer, but Tampa will rightfully want more. There's plenty of lotto tickets that could be sent their way as well. I'm not quite sure I'm ready to send Lewis over there too.

 

I'd say no to Thorpe (mainly b/c I'm pretty high on him). While I think the trade makes sense, given the names tossed around, I think the price for either of these guys is a bit steep and I'd rather just spend the cash on Darvish/Lynn.

[markos]

 

Only $130 million surplus value for Archer? From this perspective it does seem unlikely that the Twins could trade for him with prospects.

Just out of curiosity, what surplus value would Royce Lewis and Buxton have? (And Sano and Berrios?)

 

Based on 2018 FG projections for Buxton (3.0 WAR) and Sano (3.6), they would have a surplus value of roughly $80M and $105M, respectively. Archer is worth more for two reasons - a slightly higher WAR projection and a team-friendly contract. By FG rankings, Buxton is worth about the same as McCullers and Sano is about the same as Conforto. (Both Sano and Buxton are projected higher now than when the chart was produced in mid-2017). 

 

Not endorsing FG projections on WAR. Adjust according to your preference. IMO, I wouldn't trade either Sano or Buxton straight-up for Archer because I think they have higher upside.

 

I largely agree with dbminn's analysis. I also think Buxton is ~$80M, but I actually have Sano (at ~$50M) lower for two reasons:

1) I think his projection overrates this PAs for next season. They are projecting ~600 PAs and he hasn't cracked 500 PAs yet.
2) He is going to be paid a lot (relative to Buxton) in arbitration because he is a HR and RBI guy.

 

Based on the historic perfomance of #1 picks (average ~17 WAR over their first 7 seasons) and his current age (at least two full seasons away from the majors), I think ~$70M is a reasonable guess for Royce Lewis.

And as dbminn said, there are a lot of levers you can pull that will adjust these numbers. So take the specific values with a large grain of salt. But directionally, I think they are correct - Archer is probably 25%-50% more valuable than any of Sano/Buxton/Lewis, so it will take more than just one of them (but less than two of them) to pry Archer away from the Rays.