Re-opening the WAR debate

[Mr. Brooks]

We’re measuring value now? I thought we were measuring wins.

We're measuring wins above replacement. Not the same thing.

 

Every team has a AAAA 1B/DH like Vargas, that could be plugged in and hit .250 with 20 HR's. Most teams don't have a guy like that who can step in and play SS or C.

[mlhouse]

I have been a fan of Bill James since 1982, but in this case he is wrong.   He is arguing that these statistics should not be normative, but that is the entire point of these types of measures:  something that you can compare one player to another accurately. Sabermetrics looked for ways not just to compare two players competing for the MVP, but to compare players from any time removing things like stadium effects that inflated or deflated their statistics.

 

In this instance, I am not defending or advocating any normative measure like WAR.  They all have their issues.  But, to compare players you must use the normative measures, not adjust them for error like James is advocating here. The entire basis of these measures is if you had a roster that performed like the 2017 Yankees, on average they would win 102 games a year.  The actual win total is (assumed) to be normally distributed.  So, sometimes a team with those stats might win 91 games, sometimes 113 with equal probability. 

 

The other property of a normative statistic is that if you flip the players teams, send Judge to the Astros and Altuve to the Yankees, with similar WAR their impact should not be noticeable to the team's record. 

 

In the end I am surprised by James' argument and his discussion of error.  With statistical measures error always exist but for it to be a true measure the error must be random.  Bill should know this but for some reason he has got himself down the wrong path.

[drjim]

We’re measuring value now? I thought we were measuring wins.

Correct. Wins is the final measure of value in WAR. Technically it measures runs which is then translated into wins (which is of course another issue).

[yarnivek1972]

Because it's above replacement, not in a vacuum. A replacement level SS is going to give you a lot less offensive production than a replacement level 1B.

Consider a guy like Kennys Vargas. Would he still be a fringe player if he was a legit SS, or catcher, rather than 1B/DH?

I’d pay good money to see Vargas attempt to play SS. It would be like Randall McDaniel playing SS.

[ashbury]

I’d pay good money to see Vargas attempt to play SS. It would be like Randall McDaniel playing SS.

I enjoyed watching Kent Hrbek screwing around taking grounders at SS during fielding drills, back in the day. He was pretty graceful for a big guy, although obviously no threat to supplant Gagne.

 

Vargas has IMO an undeserved rap for his fielding. But yeah, at SS his quick-twitch reflexes probably would look like a freight locomotive getting underway. "I'm moving, but nothing's happening, Coach!"