National Writers on Twins Prospects

[ashbury]

In my interview I did with John last year, he talked off-record ...

We'll keep this tidbit just between you, me, and the internet.

[biggentleben]

 

We'll keep this tidbit just between you, me, and the internet.

 

It wasn't a specific question for the interview. Not something secret or anything, just chit chat before the actual interview.

[clutterheart]

 

Sickles just posted his 2018 175 Top Prospects list.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018

 

It's not terribly encouraging for us. In fact, it's kind of deflating. Some quick observations:

 

First, if you think the Twins don't show well, consider that KC has one prospect on it, a first baseman, at #141. Brutal.

 

The other four teams in the AL Central are similarly represented on the list in terms of numbers, BUT...

 

Both Chicago and Detroit have four starting pitching prospects that Sickles likes more than Gonsalves.

 

Gordon is at #60, and Sickles wonders if he has him too high. 

 

Apparently, Sickles is not as fond of a number of prospects that some other publications might like better (or not). Kirilloff, Graterol, Badoo, Enlow, Thorpe, Diaz, Wade, and Littell missed the cutoff. These are prospects that Sickles graded as B- or better prospects, the same grade as the last two dozen or so prospects that did in fact make the list, and that should be taken into consideration.

 

 

I don't think there is anything to be disheartened here.  Twins have 4 guys in the top 100 and 6 in the top 175.  Thats not bad.  Chicago has a good farm system as they tanked for it.   

I don't think many other national rankers would have Kirilloff, Graterol, Badoo, Enlow, Thorpe, Diaz, Wade, and Littell in the top 175. B- seems right based off his rankings.  All of those guys need to repeat their performance and show year over year consistency.   I think most Twins fans are pretty optimistic on a lot of guys in the system, but most of them need at least 1 more year before they start breaking through on national rankings

 

 

 

[bird]

 

He even said he might have Gonsalves too high.....

Both Gore and Greene are ahead of Lewis.

It is a system lacking star power. If they missed on both Stewart and Gordon..... That is an opportunity lost.

 

 

Gore and Greene are like two slots ahead of Lewis, so that's irrelevant. And he did mention that next year they both could either jump up the list or crash, depending on injury or poor performance. The risks are higher for both of them compared to Lewis, and it's not as if Lewis lacks similar upside.

 

Star power. There are 33 prospects who earned an A- or better grade. Only five prospects got straight A's. Half of this group of 33 were graded as borderline B+/A- prospects. 

 

The Twins have one such player. With the exception of Atlanta and San Diego, who have 4 and 3 respectively and 21% of the total, no team in baseball has more than 2 A- or better prospects.

 

Eleven of the 30 teams have none. One third.  Eight teams have 2 and nine teams have what the Twins have, one A- prospect.

 

Any description of the Twins lacking star power is accurate, but when viewed in better context, it's not all that incriminating and in fact clouds the picture a bit. Two things make the "star power" issue even less problematic. First, only one team in baseball has more B- or better prospects (Tampa Bay has an incredible 26 (!), San Diego has 19, we have 20). No other team has more than 16 B- prospects.  Second, Sickles points to the huge amount of C+ depth in the system. A number of those prospects are graded as such because Sickles has a bias of being conservative when he has yet to get a feel for a prospect, and some of these prospects do in fact become stars. Some of the names we see in Top 30 lists that get C+ grades include Miranda, Leach, Arraez, Rortvedt, Wells, Barnes...

 

We don't know if Gordon is a "hit" (he's not a miss ) any more than we know if Sickle's "All Hail Rooker" accolade signifies that Rooker will be a steal.  No sense continuing to lament Stewart, and if Gonsalves becomes a useful back end starter, we should laud that selection, right?

[bird]

 

It's a good reminder that other teams have prospects too. Our farm teams don't march through their seasons winning every game 12-1.

But we did have the winningest minor league record in all of baseball last year, so maybe there's some optimism to be gained from that. And a lot of those teams were at the top of their leagues in team ERA. Gotta like that.

[Mike Sixel]

Seems like the guys that are close to majors have already turned into high-floor rather than high-ceiling prospects (those that ever were considered high-ceiling). And the high-ceiling guys are quite a ways away.

 

It helps me to remember that these are educated guesses...and that the still-healthy number of Twins prospects that even warrant the prospect conversation, increases the overall likelihood that there will be some over-achievers among the group.

Actually, ranking correlates fairly well with outcomes. Not great, but they aren't really guesses without merit.

[Mike Sixel]

Gore and Greene are like two slots ahead of Lewis, so that's irrelevant. And he did mention that next year they both could either jump up the list or crash, depending on injury or poor performance. The risks are higher for both of them compared to Lewis, and it's not as if Lewis lacks similar upside.

 

Star power. There are 33 prospects who earned an A- or better grade. Only five prospects got straight A's. Half of this group of 33 were graded as borderline B+/A- prospects.

 

The Twins have one such player. With the exception of Atlanta and San Diego, who have 4 and 3 respectively and 21% of the total, no team in baseball has more than 2 A- or better prospects.

 

Eleven of the 30 teams have none. One third. Eight teams have 2 and nine teams have what the Twins have, one A- prospect.

 

Any description of the Twins lacking star power is accurate, but when viewed in better context, it's not all that incriminating and in fact clouds the picture a bit. Two things make the "star power" issue even less problematic. First, only one team in baseball has more B- or better prospects (Tampa Bay has an incredible 26 (!), San Diego has 19, we have 20). No other team has more than 16 B- prospects. Second, Sickles points to the huge amount of C+ depth in the system. A number of those prospects are graded as such because Sickles has a bias of being conservative when he has yet to get a feel for a prospect, and some of these prospects do in fact become stars. Some of the names we see in Top 30 lists that get C+ grades include Miranda, Leach, Arraez, Rortvedt, Wells, Barnes...

 

We don't know if Gordon is a "hit" (he's not a miss ) any more than we know if Sickle's "All Hail Rooker" accolade signifies that Rooker will be a steal. No sense continuing to lament Stewart, and if Gonsalves becomes a useful back end starter, we should laud that selection, right?

You know, I mostly agreed with your first post....I didn't say anything that you didn't seem to at least imply.

[bird]

 

You know, I mostly agreed with your first post....I didn't say anything that you didn't seem to at least imply.

 

Oh, I know, I just added of factual context to the subject.

 

BTW, Hunter Greene pitched a 1-2-3 inning, two K's in a low A game today.

[biggentleben]

 

Oh, I know, I just added of factual context to the subject.

 

BTW, Hunter Greene pitched a 1-2-3 inning, two K's in a low A game today.

 

And then signed his name with a dollar sign after asking the kid $10 in order to sign his hat. (sarcasm....truth based sarcasm, but sarcasm)

[biggentleben]

I shared this on Twitter, but I thought the link may be appreciated here on Twins Daily in general. I took a lot of the local team lists and national team lists along with the national overall lists and positional rankings list and put together a Google docs sheet with all of the Twins prospects to see how they rank when you compile all rankings together:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oyRIammk_aaIvVMHq4Jr1NLYYAVU8j27kVYyiW6Hw00/edit?usp=sharing

 

This has rankings from a host of folks here at TD, including all the rankings from the prospect handbook, the TD top 20, and a few folks on the site as well that have their own published lists. Enjoy!

[nicksaviking]

The Twins high ceiling prospects are mostly all young and/or in the lower levels. It's rare to find guys in A ball at the top of lists. If Lewis, Rooker, Javier, Badoo, Kiriloff, Graterol or Enlow do in AA what they did in prior levels, they're going to fly up the rankings. 

 

The Twins high ceiling guys have already graduated, aside from Romero, the top guys in AA/AAA are just solid but unexciting prospects. If they were better they would have been called up last year.

 

Does any club have a Buxton, Sano, Berrios and Kepler lurking in AAA year after year after year? 

[clutterheart]

 

I shared this on Twitter, but I thought the link may be appreciated here on Twins Daily in general. I took a lot of the local team lists and national team lists along with the national overall lists and positional rankings list and put together a Google docs sheet with all of the Twins prospects to see how they rank when you compile all rankings together:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oyRIammk_aaIvVMHq4Jr1NLYYAVU8j27kVYyiW6Hw00/edit?usp=sharing

 

This has rankings from a host of folks here at TD, including all the rankings from the prospect handbook, the TD top 20, and a few folks on the site as well that have their own published lists. Enjoy!

 

Thanks for sharing, Cool view.  FYI Sickels updated his list and swapped Rooker and Gonsalves.  

[bird]

 

The Twins high ceiling prospects are mostly all young and/or in the lower levels. It's rare to find guys in A ball at the top of lists. If Lewis, Rooker, Javier, Badoo, Kiriloff, Graterol or Enlow do in AA what they did in prior levels, they're going to fly up the rankings. 

 

The Twins high ceiling guys have already graduated, aside from Romero, the top guys in AA/AAA are just solid but unexciting prospects. If they were better they would have been called up last year.

 

Does any club have a Buxton, Sano, Berrios and Kepler lurking in AAA year after year after year? 

 

 

I guess I'd suggest tempering your enthusiasm a bit. If you do a spot check of Sickle's Top 20 prospects for many of the better systems, you'll find that most clubs have almost as many prospects on their list who hadn't advanced past A ball last season. The Twins had 11, San Diego 11, NYY 10, ATL 9...Philly probably has even more. So, given the numbers, we may not see as many of these guys fly up the rankings as we would like, we'll see. We need to get lucky.

 

As to your last question, I keep looking at that White Sox pipeline and it's more impressive than any I've seen here, ever. Moncada, Jiminez, Robert are no slouches compared to our guys, and they have a number of "front end" starters climbing quickly and ready soon to join the likes of Giolito, Lopez, Rodon. Kopech, Cease, Hansen, Dunning, and Fullmer, all but Hansen former 1st round picks, and Hansen was a 2nd rounder. These guys scare me. The main flaw is the lack of those unsung types in adequate numbers, guys like Rosario, Rogers, Duffey, Hildenberger, etc. But they'll have "financial flexibility to address that and maybe still be in the running for a top FA acquisition.

[nicksaviking]

 

I guess I'd suggest tempering your enthusiasm a bit. If you do a spot check of Sickle's Top 20 prospects for many of the better systems, you'll find that most clubs have almost as many prospects on their list who hadn't advanced past A ball last season. The Twins had 11, San Diego 11, NYY 10, ATL 9...Philly probably has even more. So, given the numbers, we may not see as many of these guys fly up the rankings as we would like, we'll see. We need to get lucky.

 

As to your last question, I keep looking at that White Sox pipeline and it's more impressive than any I've seen here, ever. Moncada, Jiminez, Robert are no slouches compared to our guys, and they have a number of "front end" starters climbing quickly and ready soon to join the likes of Giolito, Lopez, Rodon. Kopech, Cease, Hansen, Dunning, and Fullmer, all but Hansen former 1st round picks, and Hansen was a 2nd rounder. These guys scare me. The main flaw is the lack of those unsung types in adequate numbers, guys like Rosario, Rogers, Duffey, Hildenberger, etc. But they'll have "financial flexibility to address that and maybe still be in the running for a top FA acquisition.

 

I don't know that my expectations are overly high, I just think it's unrealistic for people to expect the Twins to have a top ten system year after year after year. The timing is never going to work unless a team nails each and every early draft pick and they all are on the same development schedule.

 

Your elite guys are going to jump levels and get to the majors quickly while your developmental guys are going to take their time. It's a rollercoaster and the Twins just had an out-of-nowhere winning season last year because the last group of prospects just clicked at the majors. They have 3-4 guys left in the high minors, after that, it's the high ceiling low minors guys. The timing is almost surely never going to allow for a team to always have their high ceiling talent in the upper minors and if the team's best talent isn't at the upper minors you're not going to be high on these lists.

[Mike Sixel]

There is, imo, a difference between wanting something, and expecting something.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here is a list of people expecting them to be top ten every year

 

I guess I assumed the general feeling of disappointment thus far in the discussion was not that the players aren't rated higher but the fact that the Twins had not put themselves in the position to be in the top ten this year. My opinion was that it's unfair for us to expect them to be in that position every year.

 

But perhaps I mis-read the vibe of the conversation.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess I assumed the general feeling of disappointment thus far in the discussion was not that the players aren't rated higher but the fact that the Twins had not put themselves in the position to be in the top ten this year. My opinion was that it's unfair for us to expect them to be in that position every year.

 

But perhaps I mis-read the vibe of the conversation.

See the new version of that post.... Which is highly redacted and edited

[gunnarthor]

Fangraphs writer makes some predictions for the upcoming season and it included this one - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/trey-baughns-10-bold-predictions-2018/

 

7. Akil Baddoo is a Top 50 prospect by season’s end (FanGraphs)

Let the record show that this bold prospect prediction has been penned before Eric and Kiley finish their 2018 Twins team top prospect list.  The age 19 outfielder did not land on the recent FanGraphs Top 100 prospect list, but he did make an appearance as an honorable mention of sorts here.  Baddoo is intriguing because of his speed (above average), his high probability of sticking in center field, and most importantly, for his ability to flat out hit.  At the age of 18 (2017), Baddoo managed a .963 OPS while walking more than he struck out.  That combination of youthful power, speed, and discipline just doesn’t materialize very often, and if his profile continues to develop over a larger sample, Baddoo may rocket up the prospect lists with an almost Ronald Acuna-type trajectory. Projecting prospects is hard, and predicting prospect breakouts is bold, but Baddoo has a foundation that looks promising.

[Mike Sixel]

scottz
1:04 What do you think is the most likely outcome for each of these current Twins shortstop prospects: Lewis, Gordon, Javier?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:04 Star in CF, average everyday 2B, potential above-avg regular at SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-3-20/

[GP830]

 

scottz
1:04 What do you think is the most likely outcome for each of these current Twins shortstop prospects: Lewis, Gordon, Javier?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:04 Star in CF, average everyday 2B, potential above-avg regular at SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-3-20/

That all seems very reasonable to me.

[ashbury]

An average everyday 2B is nothing to sneeze at, if that's how it plays out.

[nicksaviking]

 

An average everyday 2B is nothing to sneeze at, if that's how it plays out.

 

Yeah, but is that a historically average 2B? Or a 2017 average 2B? Because in today's game it seems most teams' 2B is typically one of their best hitters.

[ashbury]

Yeah, but is that a historically average 2B? Or a 2017 average 2B? Because in today's game it seems most teams' 2B is typically one of their best hitters.

I don't know. I'm just glad to see a national writer giving our prospect at least that much recognition, compared to some of the forecasts it seems like are out there.

[Vanimal46]

You're all burying the lead story here...

 

Why didn't scottz ask if the Twins won yet?

[bird]

 

An average everyday 2B is nothing to sneeze at, if that's how it plays out.

 

 

And really, that's not all that different from the more moderate scouting projections by the experts when he was drafted. There wasn't that much controversy about the wisdom of the decision.

 

Ya gotta like what he says about Javier and Lewis though. Fingers crossed he's right about all three!

[jkcarew]

 

scottz
1:04 What do you think is the most likely outcome for each of these current Twins shortstop prospects: Lewis, Gordon, Javier?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:04 Star in CF, average everyday 2B, potential above-avg regular at SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-3-20/

Interesting.  I imagine simple law of averages points to CF rather than SS for Lewis.  But, I also think it is 100% reasonable for the Twins to play Lewis every day at SS as long as they can until he proves the theory.

 

Also, another opinion that could be interpreted to suggest that it's less likely that the Twins would try to wedge Gordon into the SS void created by Polanco's suspension...regardless of how good the start at Rochester.

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
1:58 Nick Gordon....future second basemam? SS in MN this year, in about 4-6 weeks? SS in the future? Traded?

 

Keith Law
1:58 I believe he can play SS, but they seem to view him internally as a 2b.

[Oxtung]

 

The Twins high ceiling prospects are mostly all young and/or in the lower levels. It's rare to find guys in A ball at the top of lists. If Lewis, Rooker, Javier, Badoo, Kiriloff, Graterol or Enlow do in AA what they did in prior levels, they're going to fly up the rankings. 

 

The Twins high ceiling guys have already graduated, aside from Romero, the top guys in AA/AAA are just solid but unexciting prospects. If they were better they would have been called up last year.

 

Does any club have a Buxton, Sano, Berrios and Kepler lurking in AAA year after year after year? 

I spent a significant amount of time this afternoon looking into who was ranked on Sickels list. You're general premise is right but your level designation is wrong. The cutoff is rookie ball.

 

Level: # Players

Rk: 10

 A-: 15

 A : 26

A+: 26

AA: 41

AAA: 21

MLB: 33

 

Of those in rookie ball who made the list seven were 2017 high draft picks (Greene, Gore, etc...). Then there were big money international signings. Luis Robert just signed for $26 million which is the second largest amatuer international FA signing at the time and Javier signed for $4 million. So only one player who ended his season at rookie ball and wasn't a big time prospect before the season made his top 175 players. Since Baddoo, Graterol, Kiriloff and Enlow haven't progressed past rookie ball it isn't surprising they aren't on the list. If they continue to dominate they will be next year.

 

This all holds true for MLB.com's list as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Dane26
1:45 Does Akil Baddoo have the tools to be an above-average regular?

 

Keith Law
1:45 Absolutely.

[Mike Sixel]

Seath
2:02 Were you pleased to see the twins started Rooker at AA? You think he could contribute to the big club this year?
Keith Law
2:03 I was - shows they get the issue around his age and also believe his new-ish swing is going to work at the lower levels. Don't waste his time; if he's going to be good, it will happen very soon.