National Writers on Twins Prospects

[70charger]

"Cold weather guy"? Really?

[Mike Sixel]

"Cold weather guy"? Really?

Huge delta in games played, conditions, and competition between guys from the South and North. That's all that means.

[Mike Sixel]

Dusty: Is Wander Javier someone to keep an eye on this year? What would you say is his biggest obstacle?

 

 

1:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, needs to mature, physically.

[Mike Sixel]

Cold in Minnesota: I’ve seen it mentioned the Twins could move Fernando Romero to the bullpen. It’s way too soon for that discussion considering the lack of frontline SP they’ve been able to develop or sign, right?

 

 

1:32

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that it makes sense to continue developing him as a starter in case it works out, yes. Because the value he adds if it does is really substantial.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Cold in Minnesota: I’ve seen it mentioned the Twins could move Fernando Romero to the bullpen. It’s way too soon for that discussion considering the lack of frontline SP they’ve been able to develop or sign, right?


1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that it makes sense to continue developing him as a starter in case it works out, yes. Because the value he adds if it does is really substantial.

I'd be furious if they move him to the bullpen without giving him a good chance to start. That would be incredibly shortsighted.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I'd be furious if they move him to the bullpen without giving him a good chance to start. That would be incredibly shortsighted.

It just depends on the situation: it's late August he's already logged a good chunk of innings, the Twins need another power arm in the pen, he could really help the team make a late season push.  Just because he joins the team in 2018 as a RP, doesn't mean he stays there as he can switch back to the rotation in 2019. 

 

The Cardinals are notorious for doing that with their young arms (Wainwright and Martinez off the top of my head) and are looking at doing it again with recent TJS survivor Alex Reyes to work him back in.  It's a nice way to work a young pitcher into the fold without overwhelming them or throwing them to the wolves.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It just depends on the situation: it's late August he's already logged a good chunk of innings, the Twins need another power arm in the pen, he could really help the team make a late season push.  Just because he joins the team in 2018 as a RP, doesn't mean he stays there as he can switch back to the rotation in 2019. 

 

The Cardinals are notorious for doing that with their young arms (Wainwright and Martinez off the top of my head) and are looking at doing it again with recent TJS survivor Alex Reyes to work him back in.  It's a nice way to work a young pitcher into the fold without overwhelming them or throwing them to the wolves.

Ok yeah, should have specified/qualified. If it is temporary to help down the stretch this year, that's fine, and indeed great if it will get him to the big leagues. But I worry about players getting pegged as relievers simply because there are higher paid veterans on the 25 man roster and the FO/coaches are reluctant to make them go to the bullpen if it is what is best for the team. That is basically what happend with May, and it sucked.

[2wins87]

The new MLB top 30 for the Twins is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min

 

No real outlier opinions on anyone, but good little tidbits on everyone as usual.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The new MLB top 30 for the Twins is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min

 

No real outlier opinions on anyone, but good little tidbits on everyone as usual.

Pretty solid list, at least compared to previous years where I had many more disagreements. I still don't get all the love for Lewin Diaz. I guess from a scouting perspective he still has a lot of power upside, but he's seemingly limited to 1B/DH, was a 20 year old in Low A, with decent but not great production, with a pretty poor K/BB ratio. Take Blankenhorn for instance, who was also 20 in low A, but at least has the ability to play 2B/3B and took notably more walks. I'd put Blankenhorn around 15, but Diaz around 20 or so.

[Han Joelo]

 

The new MLB top 30 for the Twins is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min

 

No real outlier opinions on anyone, but good little tidbits on everyone as usual.

I like their formatting.  Good pictures.  Love Thorpe's look.  Brusdar looks like a bruiser.

[2wins87]

 

Pretty solid list, at least compared to previous years where I had many more disagreements. I still don't get all the love for Lewin Diaz. I guess from a scouting perspective he still has a lot of power upside, but he's seemingly limited to 1B/DH, was a 20 year old in Low A, with decent but not great production, with a pretty poor K/BB ratio. Take Blankenhorn for instance, who was also 20 in low A, but at least has the ability to play 2B/3B and took notably more walks. I'd put Blankenhorn around 15, but Diaz around 20 or so.

 

 

The K rate by itself was pretty good though, especially if you view him as a slugger.  I think prospect guys like Callis, Mayo, and Sickels (who also had him pretty high) will generally tend to look at a low walk rate as a more fixable issue than a pure inability to make contact consistently.  You still have to do some projection and say that the game power will develop as he matures, but I get why national evaluators still like him.  I'd still have him lower also due to his lack of positional value, but I think that explains some of the scouting vs performance gap in his case.

[2wins87]

Also, the system is not among the top 10 in the league due to the lack of very highly ranked guys outside of Lewis, but Mayo has a pretty positive view of the depth and upside in his overview:

 

 

The Twins currently don't have a top 10 farm system and have four members on the Top 100. But it's easy to see any of the next five or six players on the new Top 30 working their way onto that list over the course of 2018, and this being one of the best systems in baseball by the end of the season. There's as much upside among the non-Top 100 set in this system as perhaps in any other in baseball.

 

[gunnarthor]

I like their list. I think Miranda should be higher but I'm also not sure how much higher. Garver at 19, Curtiss at 21 and both will probably make the team out of ST. That's a deep system.

 

Servirino is #30. He's the prospect we got from Atlanta. I keep forgetting we signed him. Good for us.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Pretty solid list, at least compared to previous years where I had many more disagreements. I still don't get all the love for Lewin Diaz. I guess from a scouting perspective he still has a lot of power upside, but he's seemingly limited to 1B/DH, was a 20 year old in Low A, with decent but not great production, with a pretty poor K/BB ratio. Take Blankenhorn for instance, who was also 20 in low A, but at least has the ability to play 2B/3B and took notably more walks. I'd put Blankenhorn around 15, but Diaz around 20 or so.

I"m not going to argue over the stats between the two as I like both but Diaz has a ton of untapped power and alot of those doubles last season are going to turn into homers.  BTW have you seen Lewin this offseason?? Kid lost alot of the "baby fat" and really leaned up!  

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I"m not going to argue over the stats between the two as I like both but Diaz has a ton of untapped power and alot of those doubles last season are going to turn into homers.  BTW have you seen Lewin this offseason?? Kid lost alot of the "baby fat" and really leaned up!  

 

As long as he didn't lose any muscle with it! He's a decent prospect, just didn't seemed to me to be in the same league as say, Enlow, Thorpe and Badoo. 

[Thrylos]

 

Pretty solid list, at least compared to previous years where I had many more disagreements. I still don't get all the love for Lewin Diaz. I guess from a scouting perspective he still has a lot of power upside, but he's seemingly limited to 1B/DH, was a 20 year old in Low A, with decent but not great production, with a pretty poor K/BB ratio. Take Blankenhorn for instance, who was also 20 in low A, but at least has the ability to play 2B/3B and took notably more walks. I'd put Blankenhorn around 15, but Diaz around 20 or so.

 

Not sure that I get your argument: Blankenhorn has a 23.4 % K%  and Diaz 15.7 % K%. 

 

The fact that Blackenhorn has played second and third does not mean that he has played well on the field.  His glove is a lot like another Travis (Harrison) the Twins had.  As a matter of fact, he reminds me a lot of Harrison...

 

Also, Blankenhorn has no tool or projected tool above 50.  Lewis has a couple (Power, Arm)

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Not sure that I get your argument: Blankenhorn has a 23.4 % K%  and Diaz 15.7 % K%. 

 

The fact that Blackenhorn has played second and third does not mean that he has played well on the field.  His glove is a lot like another Travis (Harrison) the Twins had.  As a matter of fact, he reminds me a lot of Harrison...

 

Also, Blankenhorn has no tool or projected tool above 50.  Lewis has a couple (Power, Arm)

Yeah, the point about the strikeouts is fair. But Blankenhorn's walk rate is still much better than Diaz.  I guess at this point I'd probably consider neither top 15. 

 

I'd go:

Lewis

Romero

Gonsalves

Rooker

Kirilloff

Baddoo

Javier

Thorpe

Gordon

Enlow

Graterol

Wade

Garver

Jay

Granite

Curtis

Miranda 

then probably Diaz or Blankenhorn

 

[Mike Sixel]

Grand Barn Door

12:24 What do you think about Brent Rooker? Crushed high A last year and sounds like the Twins are high on him. Starts in AA with a chance at a post ASB call up if he performs?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24 Like him, always kinda worried about how much contact he'd make since I think he's always gotten to the power. Especially given age, he'll have to mash and he has. The best reasonable scenario is that, yes.

[Vanimal46]

Grand Barn Door

12:24 What do you think about Brent Rooker? Crushed high A last year and sounds like the Twins are high on him. Starts in AA with a chance at a post ASB call up if he performs?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24 Like him, always kinda worried about how much contact he'd make since I think he's always gotten to the power. Especially given age, he'll have to mash and he has. The best reasonable scenario is that, yes.

Is Kiley saying yes to Rooker starting in AA? Or the chance of a post ASB call up? Or both?

 

Have we seen any prospect since Mauer with this aggressive of a push through the minors?

[biggentleben]

 

Pretty solid list, at least compared to previous years where I had many more disagreements. I still don't get all the love for Lewin Diaz. I guess from a scouting perspective he still has a lot of power upside, but he's seemingly limited to 1B/DH, was a 20 year old in Low A, with decent but not great production, with a pretty poor K/BB ratio. Take Blankenhorn for instance, who was also 20 in low A, but at least has the ability to play 2B/3B and took notably more walks. I'd put Blankenhorn around 15, but Diaz around 20 or so.

 

The more scout-sided an eval is, the more they seem to like Diaz. It's a very, very nice swing. One of the prettiest ones in the entire system.

[biggentleben]

 

I like their list. I think Miranda should be higher but I'm also not sure how much higher. Garver at 19, Curtiss at 21 and both will probably make the team out of ST. That's a deep system.

 

Servirino is #30. He's the prospect we got from Atlanta. I keep forgetting we signed him. Good for us.

 

I think that's drastically underselling Severino, but that's also not surprising for MLB.com to be low on those types of guys.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think that's drastically underselling Severino, but that's also not surprising for MLB.com to be low on those types of guys.

I'm ok with his ranking today but he could also be a huge jump guy next year. mlb.com didn't have Baddoo on their list last year and now he's top 10. I could see Severino jumping into the top 15 with a solid year.

[bird]

 

I'm ok with his ranking today but he could also be a huge jump guy next year. mlb.com didn't have Baddoo on their list last year and now he's top 10. I could see Severino jumping into the top 15 with a solid year.

 

They missed Moya too perhaps.

[bird]

Sickles just posted his 2018 175 Top Prospects list.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018

 

It's not terribly encouraging for us. In fact, it's kind of deflating. Some quick observations:

 

First, if you think the Twins don't show well, consider that KC has one prospect on it, a first baseman, at #141. Brutal.

 

The other four teams in the AL Central are similarly represented on the list in terms of numbers, BUT...

 

Both Chicago and Detroit have four starting pitching prospects that Sickles likes more than Gonsalves.

 

Gordon is at #60, and Sickles wonders if he has him too high. 

 

Apparently, Sickles is not as fond of a number of prospects that some other publications might like better (or not). Kirilloff, Graterol, Badoo, Enlow, Thorpe, Diaz, Wade, and Littell missed the cutoff. These are prospects that Sickles graded as B- or better prospects, the same grade as the last two dozen or so prospects that did in fact make the list, and that should be taken into consideration.

 

It's not clear to me if Sickles excludes players who have some MLB time under their belts. If so, that might explain the absence of Garver, Granite, Moya, Curtiss, Jorge. Or, it could be that none of those guys are viewed highly by Sickles.

 

Like with the big leagues, we're seeing a dramatic separation between the haves and the have nots regarding the accumulation of talent. The Braves, Padres, and Blue Jays have star talent, the Rays have sick depth. If I'm a fan of a team that's not competitive and that also has a sub-par pipeline, I'm going to be greatly discouraged, especially if my team has financial limits too. Overall, the Twins are in decent shape, but despite the nice additions last year, they're far from elite.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks Bird. Six Twins on it and with his top 20 Twins (here) you can see where he ranks the other guys. I'm probably most surprised by his ranking of Romero that low. I like Romero a lot but most prospect guys - except Klaw? - are lower on him than I think he deserves.

 

[Mike Sixel]

He even said he might have Gonsalves too high.....

 

Both Gore and Greene are ahead of Lewis.

 

It is a system lacking star power. If they missed on both Stewart and Gordon..... That is an opportunity lost.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Thanks Bird. Six Twins on it and with his top 20 Twins (here) you can see where he ranks the other guys. I'm probably most surprised by his ranking of Romero that low. I like Romero a lot but most prospect guys - except Klaw? - are lower on him than I think he deserves.

I think Romero’s last 4 starts and shoulder impingement might have something to do with it. Also last year Romero really didn’t have a good change up so that might drop his prospect status (at least for now). I think Romero might surprise some this year, we know he’s worked hard to improve both his slider and change, if the results show up on the stat sheet that might lead more to rate Romero higher.

[ashbury]

It's a good reminder that other teams have prospects too. Our farm teams don't march through their seasons winning every game 12-1.

[jkcarew]

Seems like the guys that are close to majors have already turned into high-floor rather than high-ceiling prospects (those that ever were considered high-ceiling).  And the high-ceiling guys are quite a ways away.

 

It helps me to remember that these are educated guesses...and that the still-healthy number of Twins prospects that even warrant the prospect conversation, increases the overall likelihood that there will be some over-achievers among the group.

[biggentleben]

 

Sickles just posted his 2018 175 Top Prospects list.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018

 

It's not terribly encouraging for us. In fact, it's kind of deflating. Some quick observations:

 

First, if you think the Twins don't show well, consider that KC has one prospect on it, a first baseman, at #141. Brutal.

 

The other four teams in the AL Central are similarly represented on the list in terms of numbers, BUT...

 

Both Chicago and Detroit have four starting pitching prospects that Sickles likes more than Gonsalves.

 

Gordon is at #60, and Sickles wonders if he has him too high. 

 

Apparently, Sickles is not as fond of a number of prospects that some other publications might like better (or not). Kirilloff, Graterol, Badoo, Enlow, Thorpe, Diaz, Wade, and Littell missed the cutoff. These are prospects that Sickles graded as B- or better prospects, the same grade as the last two dozen or so prospects that did in fact make the list, and that should be taken into consideration.

 

It's not clear to me if Sickles excludes players who have some MLB time under their belts. If so, that might explain the absence of Garver, Granite, Moya, Curtiss, Jorge. Or, it could be that none of those guys are viewed highly by Sickles.

 

Like with the big leagues, we're seeing a dramatic separation between the haves and the have nots regarding the accumulation of talent. The Braves, Padres, and Blue Jays have star talent, the Rays have sick depth. If I'm a fan of a team that's not competitive and that also has a sub-par pipeline, I'm going to be greatly discouraged, especially if my team has financial limits too. Overall, the Twins are in decent shape, but despite the nice additions last year, they're far from elite.

 

In my interview I did with John last year, he talked off-record about how he struggles in doing overall rankings to not be too hard on Twins in order to hide his own fandom of the team, so he sometimes feels he has Twins lower than most because he doesn't want to appear a "homer".

 

FWIW, In my recent top 150 on Call To The Pen, the Twins were tied for the 3rd most players on the list behind the Braves (1st) and White Sox (2nd) with 8 players on the list.