National Writers on Twins Prospects

[markos]

 

Nah, the bullpen was horrible last year. We used two starting pitchers in our wildcard game. It needs to be upgraded. And I'm much more confident in our offensive nucleus than anything else. We'll have a good offense again. I agree that we need to upgrade our rotation but these improvements to the pen are pretty solid, too.

Yeah, I think the bullpen improvements have been a little underrated so far. They were pretty bad last year, and if they can even have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen would probably add 3-5 WAR from last year.

[Mike Sixel]

Anthony
12:39 Do you see Wander Javier being a realistic threat to be in this range midseason? I assume he's a 45 right now?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:39 Yes to both

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects-chat/

[Mike Sixel]

JaKob
1:06 Was Brent Rooker even considered for the top 100? He claimed the SEC Triple Crown and came out of the draft on fire.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:06 As we talk about 40 and 45 guys we like for next year and try to put them into buckets we can write about, one of my groups is 'The guys who are staring us in the face' and I think Rooker and LaMonte Wade are two of those guys.

 

Clint
1:31 Do you like the move of Royce Lewis to the OF?

Kiley McDaniel
1:31 Yes, think CF is the best position for him

[Vanimal46]

JaKob

1:06 Was Brent Rooker even considered for the top 100? He claimed the SEC Triple Crown and came out of the draft on fire.

 

Eric A Longenhagen

1:06 As we talk about 40 and 45 guys we like for next year and try to put them into buckets we can write about, one of my groups is 'The guys who are staring us in the face' and I think Rooker and LaMonte Wade are two of those guys.

 

Clint

1:31 Do you like the move of Royce Lewis to the OF?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31 Yes, think CF is the best position for him

Wait. Lewis already moved to CF from SS?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wait. Lewis already moved to CF from SS?

 

No, but in their projections, yes.....that's what they think will happen.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nah, the bullpen was horrible last year. We used two starting pitchers in our wildcard game. It needs to be upgraded. And I'm much more confident in our offensive nucleus than anything else. We'll have a good offense again. I agree that we need to upgrade our rotation but these improvements to the pen are pretty solid, too.

 

Once they pulled the plug on Breslow, Tonkin and Haley, and once they stopped farting around with AAAA guys like Turley, Wilk, Wimmers, Rucinski and Wheeler they were pretty good. 

 

Like I said, I'm not going to turn down bullpen upgrades, but I think much bigger strides would have been made (will be made, fingers crossed) if the current front of the rotation is bumped to the mid-rotation and if a better RHB replaces Robbie Grossman/Kepler than there will be with Rodney displacing Busenitz and Duke displacing Moya. Those spots looked less in need of an upgrade.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Wait. Lewis already moved to CF from SS?

No, he didn't. Kiley just got tripped up by a question that assumed a false fact.

[prouster]

For example, instead of going Hunter Greene or McKay, both great prospects, Falvine went with a HS bat and turned it into multiple picks. It’s not revolutionary, but it was a great way to get quantity. For as much as we all want upside, the bust rate in baseball is too high. Quantity is (although it needs to be talented) more important, imo, especially for small to mid-sized market teams.

 

The other example is the Jaime Garcia deal. We gave up one prospect, paid Garcia’s remaining salary and got three prospects back. Not huge upside guys, but three solid and all three have a good shot of earning MLB time someday. Three above average prospects (likely 45-50 guys) for one 50-55 guy in Ynoa.

 

All I am saying is it appears this regime is looking to diversify its prospect portfolio instead of going all in on fewer high-ceiling guys.

Do you mean that taking Lewis allowed them to offer higher bonuses with their other picks. I agree with that, but the total number of picks would have been the same no matter who they took first overall.

[Mr. Brooks]

Do you mean that taking Lewis allowed them to offer higher bonuses with their other picks. I agree with that, but the total number of picks would have been the same no matter who they took first overall.

Yes, but some (most) picks have almost no chance of ever being prospects.

[prouster]

Yes, but some (most) picks have almost no chance of ever being prospects.

Right, but that can be hard to predict in the middle and later rounds.

[Mr. Brooks]

Right, but that can be hard to predict in the middle and later rounds.

But saving money on your first pick allows you to draft less of those non prospect filter types with your early round picks.

[nytwinsfan]

Twins did really well on Fangraphs' "Here's Some Lower-Ranked Prospects We Love."

 

Included:

 

Pitchers:

Brusdar Graterol

 

Corner-Outfielders:

Lewin Diaz

 

Middle-Infielders:

Wander Javier

Yunior Severino (this was sort of a pleasant surprise. BTW, as a Junot Diaz fan, I LOVE the name Yunior).

 

Performers Staring Us in the Face:

Brent Rooker

LaMonte Wade

 

Outfielders:

Akil Baddoo

 

Recall that Lewis, Gordon and Kirilloff were all on their top 100 list and that Gonsalves and Romero were in the list of other players who were closely considered for the top 100.  The only two I see potentially missing who might arguably be on here are Lewis Thorpe (under Performers Staring Us in the Face) and Blayne Enlow (Pitchers), but that's a pretty small quibble. Overall the Twins are very very well represented on this list, which although not a huge surprise, is nice to see.

 

 

[dbminn]

 

Twins did really well on Fangraphs' "Here's Some Lower-Ranked Prospects We Love."

 

Included:

 

Pitchers:

Brusdar Graterol

 

Corner-Outfielders:

Lewin Diaz

 

Middle-Infielders:

Wander Javier

Yunior Severino (this was sort of a pleasant surprise. BTW, as a Junot Diaz fan, I LOVE the name Yunior).

 

Performers Staring Us in the Face:

Brent Rooker

LaMonte Wade

 

Outfielders:

Akil Baddoo

 

Recall that Lewis, Gordon and Kirilloff were all on their top 100 list and that Gonsalves and Romero were in the list of other players who were closely considered for the top 100.  The only two I see potentially missing who might arguably be on here are Lewis Thorpe (under Performers Staring Us in the Face) and Blayne Enlow (Pitchers), but that's a pretty small quibble. Overall the Twins are very very well represented on this list, which although not a huge surprise, is nice to see.

 

I've heard Junot Diaz interviewed and he's incredibly thoughtful. I still haven't read anything by him. Your mention puts him back to the top of my "to read" list. He's the author "Staring Me in the Face".

 

On the baseball side, it's nice to see Wade get a little love. I was disappointed by his slugging percentage last year but all of the other metrics are on track: great K/BB ratio, OBP near .400 and lots of line drives. He's been one of my favorites to follow since he signed and I'll be cheering hard for him this year. He's going to be needed in the near future.

[Mike Sixel]

I tweeted with Eric L from Fangraphs about there stil being no Tyler Jay sighting on their lists....here is his reply:

 

Was 87-93 in the AFL with poor extension. Breaking balls are still solid, though.

 

 

So, not sure what that means, other than they don't like/love him very much right now!

[nytwinsfan]

 

I tweeted with Eric L from Fangraphs about there stil being no Tyler Jay sighting on their lists....here is his reply:

 

Was 87-93 in the AFL with poor extension. Breaking balls are still solid, though.

 

 

So, not sure what that means, other than they don't like/love him very much right now!

His shoulder and/or neck probably still were not 100%. He's got to get healthy. Hopefully this offseason was his chance to do that.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I've heard Junot Diaz interviewed and he's incredibly thoughtful. I still haven't read anything by him. Your mention puts him back to the top of my "to read" list. He's the author "Staring Me in the Face".

 

On the baseball side, it's nice to see Wade get a little love. I was disappointed by his slugging percentage last year but all of the other metrics are on track: great K/BB ratio, OBP near .400 and lots of line drives. He's been one of my favorites to follow since he signed and I'll be cheering hard for him this year. He's going to be needed in the near future.

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.  If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/06/04/monstro

[Vanimal46]

Baseball Prospectus released their Top 100 Prospect List. 

 

Twins Rankings: 

Lewis 27

Gordon 35

Romero 97

[2wins87]

Continuing Fangraphs prospect week they are out with their top 100 KATOH projection list.  All the caveats of scouting the stat line apply (though their system is much more sophisticated than the average internet commenter).

 

If you aren't familiar with the system just think of it as comparing current prospects to former prospects at similar levels, ages, and approximate statistical profile, and then looking at the range of outcomes and coming out with an average expected WAR over their first 6 years in the majors.

 

Twins rankings:

Granite - 6 (10.4 WAR)

Lewis - 23 (7.6 WAR)

Garver - 32 (6.7 WAR)

Wade - 40 (5.7 WAR)

Gonsalves 66 (4.7 WAR)

Littell 96 (4.1 WAR)

 

It's interesting how bullish it is on Granite still, especially since he's accrued enough time in the upper minors and MLB level to be projected by other MLB systems, and none of them are particularly bullish on him for next year.  I was also surprised to see Lewis so high, since there is a huge range of outcomes for guys at the lower levels.  Clearly his strong performance along with aggressive promotions puts him in the company of some very good former prospects.

[ashbury]

Twins rankings:

Granite - 6 (10.4 WAR)

Wow. Sell high on him, if some other team is willing to part with a legitimate MLB-ready and controllable starting pitcher with Granite as the centerpiece. I like Granite, a lot - as a fourth outfielder. But he hasn't got the arm to excel in CF, and hasn't got the power to excel at a corner, making him a 3-tool player if he comes through, and is thus expendable in return for something else good at a position of need.

 

C'mon, Tampa, your Brent Honeywell is ranked way below Granite - what else are you willing to throw in to sweeten the deal for us?

[Siehbiscuit]

Do you mean that taking Lewis allowed them to offer higher bonuses with their other picks. I agree with that, but the total number of picks would have been the same no matter who they took first overall.

Correct in that the the number of players picked is the same, but I see them as a team that continually is trading back (a la NFL draft). With the manipulation of the draft pool, using international pool $ to acquire prospects, etc, I see them behaving in a consistent manner here.

 

But its not just that. It’s the specific type of player they are looking for. They appear to be going after specific traits (pitchers with a good breaking pitch, for example).

 

Look at the last two drafts for example and how many of these guys are in the twins top 20 prospect lists already. They are drafting high upside guys all over, because whether it is an Akil Badoo or a safer college arm, the bust rates in the middle rounds are about the same. The difference is some of these upside guys are starting to hit and they have selected and acquired more of them lately than the Ryan regime did.

 

Lastly, the acquisitions they have made for MLB-ready guys have been solid. Enns, Littel and a few others have been good acquisitions, IMO, because there is still some upside there.

[prouster]

Correct in that the the number of players picked is the same, but I see them as a team that continually is trading back (a la NFL draft). With the manipulation of the draft pool, using international pool $ to acquire prospects, etc, I see them behaving in a consistent manner here.

 

But its not just that. It’s the specific type of player they are looking for. They appear to be going after specific traits (pitchers with a good breaking pitch, for example).

 

Look at the last two drafts for example and how many of these guys are in the twins top 20 prospect lists already. They are drafting high upside guys all over, because whether it is an Akil Badoo or a safer college arm, the bust rates in the middle rounds are about the same. The difference is some of these upside guys are starting to hit and they have selected and acquired more of them lately than the Ryan regime did.

 

Lastly, the acquisitions they have made for MLB-ready guys have been solid. Enns, Littel and a few others have been good acquisitions, IMO, because there is still some upside there.

Right. The actual number of prospects is the same, but the number of high(ish) upside prospects is probably greater due to manipulating bonuses.

[70charger]

 

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.  If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/06/04/monstro

 

Funny, I'm reading Vargas Llosa's Feast of the Goat right now, and I keep thinking how it would have been helpful to have had this background when reading Junot Diaz. Oscar Wao is probably my favorite, but I hav a soft spot in my heart for This is How You Lose Her, recommended to me by a woman that I did, in fact, lose. Oh well. Time heals and all that. 

 

So how about that Brent Rooker, huh?

[markos]

 

It's interesting how bullish it is on Granite still, especially since he's accrued enough time in the upper minors and MLB level to be projected by other MLB systems, and none of them are particularly bullish on him for next year.  

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

 

Makes you wonder if they should be dealing from their OF "excess" for pitching (hopefully with more success than the Span trade....)

[2wins87]

 

They are more bullish than you think. Steamer is projecting 0.3 WAR in 146 PAs. For a full season, that is 1.2 WAR. Repeating that over the next six seasons is ~7.7 WAR. PECOTA is even more optimistic: 0.5 WAR in 141 PAs, or 2.5 WAR over a full season. Frankly, I'm skeptical that Granite will actually hit with enough strength to make his high-contact game work in the big leagues. But all of the projection systems are picking up on the same signals; namely, Granite should make a lot of contact, get on base, run the bases well, and play a plus defense in centerfield. 

 

I guess you're right.  I just remembered his projected batting line being lower than those for Garver and Wade.  But Steamer actually doesn't project his defense or baserunning to be all that great, which seems wrong, probably just because it's conservative on those for guys without much MLB data.  If you adjust them upward a bit, which seems reasonable, his projection actually looks pretty good.

[dbminn]

 

Junot Diaz is an amazing speaker on almost any topic (ridiculously smart, insightful and even just casually profound) and an even better writer. Everything he writes is amazing, but Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao is his magnum opus.  If you want a small taste, try this zombie short story he wrote for the New Yorker. It isn't his usual subject matter, but his style is unmistakable: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/06/04/monstro

 

Thanks for the link! I'll read this weekend.

[Mike Sixel]

some serious Granite love:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-all-katoh-team/

[bird]

 

Makes you wonder if they should be dealing from their OF "excess" for pitching (hopefully with more success than the Span trade....)

 

 

I was just thinking this, but then remembered the painful lesson the Span/Revere/Hicks trades taught us. Which is you better have at least one 4th OF who isn't a drastic fall-off from your starters. Personally, I don't think we have an OF surplus right now. Granite is not that player, nor are Grossman, Garver or Adrianza of course. So unless Rooker or Wade explode onto the scene, I'm not trading off anyone.

[Twins33]

I was just thinking this, but then remembered the painful lesson the Span/Revere/Hicks trades taught us. Which is you better have at least one 4th OF who isn't a drastic fall-off from your starters. Personally, I don't think we have an OF surplus right now. Granite is not that player, nor are Grossman, Garver or Adrianza of course. So unless Rooker or Wade explode onto the scene, I'm not trading off anyone.

I would normally agree, but the SP depth of quality pitchers is less than the OF (meaning right now we have three quality OF out of three positions and only two quality SP out of five positions). OF is easier to plug and already better off.

 

 

As of right now, the Twins actually need two quality pitchers, one better than both Santana and Berrios and one about equal to them or just a tick down. They're already worse off in the SP department than they are the OF. I do understand the hesitation because of the players you mentioned though.

 

Remove an OF and add one of those pitchers and you could either consider them equal problems or say that SP is still the bigger problem because it's a more important position. The Twins can have all the offense/position players in the world and if their pitching remains in the bottom 10 having all that offense means basically nothing. The Twins need much better pitching to compete with the Indians, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers etc. if they don't get that, then what are they even doing?

 

I'm a sign Darvish first type of person because it's just money, but I would give up an OF (not Buxton) for the right pitcher. It wouldn't be a horrible thing to do both. And this 2018 Twins team is a lot better than the Twins team that trade Span/Revere/Hicks.

[Mike Sixel]

Shep: Thoughts on Katoh darling, Zach Granite

 

12:47

Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it on Effectively Wild. Zero power, plus contact/plate discipline, solid extra guy but limited upside.

 

’re Going Streaming: Kirilloff made your top 100 list after missing the entire season. What do you like about him?

 

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: Love the feel for hitting and above average tools, has performed and is a cold weather guy (usually a little more in the tank)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-2-14-18/