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drjim

By drjim
in Twins Minor League Talk

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Posted
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I think this is a fair take from Law.

 

What I like most about these moves are not necessarily the prospects they returned but the thinking that led to the moves in the first place. It shows an adaptability on the part of the front office. That money was originally slated for Marte. That didn't work out so they made a run at Ohtani. That didn't work out so they shuffled the money off to other teams in trade for prospects. All of this happened in a span of just three months.

 

Working in the margins like that is how mid-market teams get and stay competitive. The front office hasn't brought back a single "wow" player dating back to last deadline but they're consistently bringing in marginal guys who sometimes turn out to be long-term MLB contributors.

 

If you find a way to acquire a dozen marginal prospects over a few years, a couple of those guys will turn into quality MLB players and you've given up virtually nothing to acquire any of them (in this case, a couple of expiring contracts and fake money).

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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I think this is a fair take from Law.

 

What I like most about these moves are not necessarily the prospects they returned but the thinking that led to the moves in the first place. It shows an adaptability on the part of the front office. That money was originally slated for Marte. That didn't work out so they made a run at Ohtani. That didn't work out so they shuffled the money off to other teams in trade for prospects.

 

Working in the margins like that is how mid-market teams get and stay competitive. The front office hasn't brought back a single "wow" player dating back to last deadline but they're consistently bringing in marginal guys who sometimes turn out to be long-term MLB contributors.

 

If you find a way to acquire a dozen marginal prospects over a few years, a couple of those guys will turn into quality MLB players and you've given up virtually nothing to acquire any of them (in this case, a couple of expiring contracts and fake money).

Conversely, you could say that the Twins originally zeroed in on a top prospect from Latin America (Marte), lost him somehow, zeroed in on another top prospect (Ohtani), didn't get him either. Pivoted to a former top prospect who lost some helium (Maitan) but were rejected and ended up settling for two C-level prospects.

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Conversely, you could say that the Twins originally zeroed in on a top prospect from Latin America (Marte), lost him somehow, zeroed in on another top prospect (Ohtani), didn't get him either. Pivoted to a former top prospect who lost some helium (Maitan) but were rejected and ended up settling for two C-level prospects.

That would require some serious pessimism and intentional negativity to draw that conclusion.

 

1. They didn't somehow lose Marte, the dude failed a physical.

 

2. Ohtani gets to go wherever he pleases. We shouldn't be even the least bit surprised that location is not Minnesota.

 

3. The Maitan thing stinks but when you have a legit top 100 SS prospect in the high minors, recently drafted another SS at #1 overall, it's not really surprising a young foreign kid looks at that and says "no thanks, ima just gonna go over here to the team with the absolutely atrocious farm system so i can be in the majors in three years".

 

The front office took their shots and rolled with it as each punch failed to land. In the end, they ended up with a couple of interesting prospects without giving up anything except their own time.

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Steve Lein Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Steve Lein

Twins Daily Contributor
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I've liked Kiley and I also think Longerhagens is very good.  MLB's prospect listing is the one I look at the least.  

 

MLB's list is near the bottom for me too. I do like some of the things they do, but they seem to be the outlier far most often on guys.

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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For those reading prospect reviews, I'd check out 2080, Baseball Census, and Prospect 1500 for options for different perspective, often very good perspective.

 

One of the guys I really respect as far as his eye, John Calvagno, expanded his Notes from the Sally site to include the Appy League last year, so that's possibly applicable for Twins fans as well.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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Mod note: The original poster asked for posts about Twins prospects being written up, the conversation drifted (with apparent buy-in from that original poster) toward discussion of the analysts themselves, then to processes by the front office regarding prospects, and as of now a stray reference to Terry Ryan is turning this thread into a referendum on, well, Terry Ryan. I have removed the latter bunch, and ask please to keep it closer to the intended topic. You can always start a new thread if your thirst to discuss Terry Ryan is unquenched.

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clutterheart First Round Pick

clutterheart

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MLB's list is near the bottom for me too. I do like some of the things they do, but they seem to be the outlier far most often on guys.

 

I think I like MLB pipeline mostly because formatting. Its the first place I go to compare prospects/teams/positions and get high level capsules of prospects.  Some others add more depth like fangraphs, but overall MLB's Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo do a great job:  

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/callis-mayo-on-ronald-acuna-vs-byron-buxton/c-263755102

 

(buxton isn't a prospect anymore but...)

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drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

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I think I like MLB pipeline mostly because formatting. Its the first place I go to compare prospects/teams/positions and get high level capsules of prospects.  Some others add more depth like fangraphs, but overall MLB's Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo do a great job:  

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/callis-mayo-on-ronald-acuna-vs-byron-buxton/c-263755102

 

(buxton isn't a prospect anymore but...)

 

It's also not updated at all. They do it once in early February and then just slot in draft picks/international signings/trade acquisitions in a list.

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bird College Ball

bird

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He's been very high on Buxton, Kepler and Rosario (he might be the high man on Rosario). He did think Berrios' height would move him to the pen but I think he's been, more or less, fair to the Twins. He also was the high man on our system last offseason, ranking us #11 while BA had us around #20 or so.

 

I think he didn't like our haul b/c the prospects we got back were meh types. At best, we probably got a back-up defensive catcher and a low level avg OF or 4th OFer.

 

 

Yeah, I think your examples support an opinion that KLAW has been fair. If he's been unfair and yet thought the Twin's system was a top third system, then yay for us.

 

IMO, if we get a superb defensive MLB backup C and a MLB 4th OF, that would be a very nice result.

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bird College Ball

bird

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I did not see this anywhere in the string, so I thought I would add that Sickels updated his Top 20 Twins Prospects for 2018.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/24/16537288/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018

 

The aspect I like about Sickels is his grades help with an understanding of the overall quality of talent and also the overall depth of any meaningful amount (C or better grades, which include prospects viewed as having at least a chance to become role players). 

 

I like to compare the Twins pipeline against its AL Central rivals. Some interesting things so far, the caveat being he's not yet updated CWS, DET, and CLE:

 

1) Sickles gives grades of B- or higher to 21 Twins prospects! This is a big number. For example, in 2017, the top-ranked Braves had 18 B- or higher prospects. The Twins had 14 in 2017.

 

2) Compare this to his 2018 KC list. The Twins have 9 prospects graded HIGHER than KC's highest graded prospect (B-). Of the 21 Twins prospects, only 3 of them graded as low as C+/B-. Of KC's 11 prospects, 7 of the 11 were C+/B- guys. Think about this. That means in Sickle's opinion, 18 Twins prospects grade out higher than all but 4 prospects in KC's system.

 

3) Comparing the Twins 21 B- or better grades to its division rivals using 2017 grades shows CLE with 15, one more than the Twin's' 14. After that, the fast-improving CWS were at 11, KC at 8, and DET at 6. That said, I'd guess both DET and CWS will look considerably better in 2018.

 

But still, 21 prospects grading out at B- or above indicates a system with pretty solid quality in very solid quantities.

 

4. Additionally, he grades another 14 prospects as C+ guys. His C+ list includes Granite, Curtiss, Slegers, Jorge, Rosario, and Stewart. So, that's 35 prospects at C+ or better. I don't think any team in the AL Central had even 20 guys graded this highly in 2017, including the Twins. All the encouraging minor league performances we saw last season added up I guess.

 

5. Another 27 prospects got a C grade. This includes guys like Chargois, Enns, Reed, and Melotakis. So that's 62 prospects in the system that one analyst thinks have at least enough going for them to eventually get a cup of coffee. And if you find his grades to be less than credible, you'll have to explain to me how Granite, Curtiss, Slegers, Jorge, Rosario, Chargois, and Enns--none of them graded out as among our top 21 prospects---have already sipped from a clubhouse coffee mug.

 

Quibble about his expertise if you wish, but how is this anything other than encouraging, right?

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2wins87 First Round Pick

2wins87

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Posted
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Also seems that the Palka and Dereck Rodriguez losses haven't hit his radar yet. And no word on Yunior Severino, which I'm pretty damn curious about.

 

Severino was a C+ guy when he rated the Braves organization.  I guess he just missed him in the update.

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howieramone2 First Round Pick

howieramone2

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Posted
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He put Royce Lewis's ETA at 2019? Damn, that'd be quick. I wouldn't complain if it actually happened, but that seems super accelerated.

I noticed that also. What I have taken away from Lewis thus far is, his arm is not as strong as Buxton, but his hit tool is more advanced. He also has position versatility. Could be the fast mover we all want. Lewis to LF, Rosario to RF, and Kepler to 1B by 2019?

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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SSS
12:11 Any thoughts on Alex Kiriloff? He dropped far in all the rankings despite a great 2016, and the fact that his TJ was on his non-throwing arm. It won’t hurt his hit tool or power will it?

 

Kiley McDaniel
12:12 Tend to agree, more that he hasn't played much in pro ball and lost some name hype as a result than his long-term outlook has changed. I was bullish on him the summer before he was drafted and still am. Not enormous upside since he's a corner OF without a 7 tool, but there's a broad base of tools and skills.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-24-18/

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Greg
1:04 Which team has the best collection of far away guys that are volatile but have great upside?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:05 SD, MIN, TB
OAK

 

Not a Phillies Fan
1:23 Thoughts on Brusdar Graterol's ceiling? I feel like he could pull a Forrest Whitely this year

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:23 I didn't plan it this way but this was literally the next question in the queue.
1:24 I like Brusdar! but he's a short strider who some scouts haven't seen a changeup from, so there's pretty significant relief risk. But he's upper-90s with a plus slider.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-1-30/

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nytwinsfan GCL Twins

nytwinsfan

Provisional Member
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Greg
1:04 Which team has the best collection of far away guys that are volatile but have great upside?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:05 SD, MIN, TB
OAK

 

Not a Phillies Fan
1:23 Thoughts on Brusdar Graterol's ceiling? I feel like he could pull a Forrest Whitely this year

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:23 I didn't plan it this way but this was literally the next question in the queue.
1:24 I like Brusdar! but he's a short strider who some scouts haven't seen a changeup from, so there's pretty significant relief risk. But he's upper-90s with a plus slider.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-1-30/

Hell yes.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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James
12:23 How bullish is Kiley on Brent Rooker's bat?

 

Kiley McDaniel
12:24 Kiley was a little skeptical of it when Rooker was an amateur, but his debut was better than Kiley was expecting. Kiley thinks it's still fringy bat, plus power, questionable defensive value but it's something worth watching, not just some stiff 4A power guy

 

Derek Falvey
12:45 I'm planning on going to spring training this year and watch some backfield games. Which Twins prospect should I watch?

Kiley McDaniel
12:45 I feel like I should be asking you this. But I would recommend BRUSDAR.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-31-18/

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Marshall MN
2:05 Klaw, last week you gave a pretty quick reply to a question about whether Stephen Gonsalves was considered as a Top 100 prospect.  I realize that I am scouting the stat line some (that is all I CAN do afterall), but what did you hear this year as compared to last year when he did make the Top 100?  Also...thank you!

 

Keith Law
2:06 Same guy he was a year ago, still doesn't have the average breaking ball to make him more than a back end starter.

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TRex Draft Eligible

TRex

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

You know, if Gonsalves ends up having Tommy Milone's career, well, that's really not that bad.  Milone had a pretty solid rookie year and, when healthy, had a few other moments. 

Especially as a 4th rounder!

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