Article: Three Bagger: Darvish, Marte & Otani

[USAFChief]

Otani is from the Iwate Prefecture

 

Nishioka is from the Osaka Prefecture

 

Not a good comparison

 

Domo arigato.

[Riverbrian]

Darvish is still hitting mid 90's with his fastball that he will also cut and sink as he mixes in a variety of breaking pitches. He's a unique pitcher in terms of stuff. If he gets back to trusting his entire assortment like he did when he was younger... I'd take the gamble. 

 

Darvish didn't look like the same pitcher in the World Series. It was like he was avoiding his breaking stuff.

 

 

 

I'm less excited about Arrieta. I just have a thing against those cross body guys. I'd guess his velocity will be below 90 soon. 

[South Dakota Tom]

Turning the corner, what do people think the $3M is worth to a team trying to lure Ohtani?    Do we stand a substantially better chance of landing him with our bonus versus teams with $1M?    Is it crazy of me to wish that we sell our bonus pool money for a nice return, and then sign Darvish, and land Ohtani for the lesser money we have (his being long-term goals of winning and branding rather than immediate guarantees?  And does anyone think no one is talking to him about the "second" contact?)?

 

So my wish tonight is that we sell the signing bonus money to a team for a top-10 team prospect because they think it matters; then we sign the 6-year $150M Darvish deal, and then snag Ohtani anyway. 

 

And sorry for Mr. Marte - but wanted to include all three subjects in this reply....

[prouster]

How many American born players get a 3 year deal of $12 Million right out the chute to play in the bigs? ZERO! And Thanks for the geography lesson. Maybe the right player to call out would have been Nishioki from JAPAN! He worked out real well didn't he. I'm pretty sure the intention was to refer to the international market in the area of Korea and Japan. Wonder why the guys in America that can't make it in MLB go over there to play? Because the competition isn't at the same level as here in the Majors. DUH! So why give any money away to a superstar from over there. He'll more than likely just be average here if he's really that good, or he'll just be another Park or Nishioki.

Every year amateur American players get multi million dollar signing bonuses, many of whom never play in the majors. My point is that national origin has nothing to do with a player's success. Plenty of Japanese players have had fine MLB careers (Nomo, Ichiro, Matsui, a bunch of relief pitchers). Plenty have also busted. Are you skeptical when the Twins draft Caucasian players from the U.S. because Adam Johnson busted?

Edited November 17, 2017 by prouster

[prouster]

When you say "American-born", are you referring to North America, South America, or Central America? I realize they are not 3 countries, but rather are made up of dozens of countries. I guess a better example would have been Nishi, who is also from Japan, and to my way of thinking, was one of the worst signing blunders by the Twins ever. But you know what, I'll give Nishi credit...he realized he was "out of his league" here in the USA and allowed the Twins to keep some of his contract money.

That's a good point on what American-born means.

 

Nishioka has literally nothing to do with Otani or Darvish.

[RaoulDuke]

Im on board with Darvish or Otani or both.  Pitching seems to make the jump better than hitting and Otani's bat is much less important to me than his arm. 

 

Darvish sucked in the world series but was really good the rest of the playoffs.  The whole controversy with the slick world series balls seems like it could be a major factor there as he relies on his slider a lot.  Spend the money to get a top of the line pitcher period. 

[RaoulDuke]

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1573943/i3SXAH4AAxtWS_medium.gif

 

Yes please.

 

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by RaoulDuke

[beckmt]

Do not think both is an option, unless there is something I do not know.  But the Twins need an ace, this is a good place to start.

[gocgo]

I'm not skeptical because of Park...I'm going further back than that to a guy that was the star in Japan.  He was considered the best player in Japan after hitting .346 and leading the league in hits (206) and runs scored (121).  He was fast.  He was a switch hitter.  He was the man in Japan!...and failed miserably for the Minnesota Twins.

 

Yes, he wasn't a pitcher.  But DHing might not come so easily for Otani here as Nishioka's .346 equated to .226 over here.  I'm skeptical, but might be willing to give it a try.

[Clear]

I'm not skeptical because of Park...I'm going further back than that to a guy that was the star in Japan.  He was considered the best player in Japan after hitting .346 and leading the league in hits (206) and runs scored (121).  He was fast.  He was a switch hitter.  He was the man in Japan!...and failed miserably for the Minnesota Twins.

 

Yes, he wasn't a pitcher.  But DHing might not come so easily for Otani here as Nishioka's .346 equated to .226 over here.  I'm skeptical, but might be willing to give it a try.

I think we’re better off taking a chance on him and if he doesn’t work out at least we didn’t have to sign him in 2 years to some big deal to end up being a bust. Although if he waited there’s no way we’d get him for the crazy deal he’d be asking for.

[Vanimal46]

 

Darvish is 31. And hasn't he had some injury issues the last couple of years?

 

I'm not wild about 30 something year old starting pitchers. The Twins already have one of those on the staff. 

 

But, I also admit I'm not wild about spending big bucks on FA pitching, especially when a pitcher is on the other side of 30. Granted, Santana has done darn well but, I think he's more the exception than the rule.

 

Of course, this leads into the very real problem the Twins have when it comes to lack of pitching in the farm system. 

 

And that leads me to believe the Twins are going to have to trade for a younger arm out of another farm system. 

 

Bottom line, I'm expecting the FO to do something other than the obvious.

 

He had one major arm issue, resulting in Tommy John back in 2015. That caused him to miss all of that season plus a portion of 2016 recovering. 

 

His velocity has actually improved after he returned from surgery, from 93.4 MPH in 2014 to 94.7 MPH in 2017. 

 

Besides the Tommy John, he's been durable a la Ervin, so I'm not that concerned about him being 31 years old. He should have 3 more good seasons in him at least. 

 

Now, it's still not certain whether this is realistic so I'm holding back from future heartbreak.... If this is truly realistic, I'd be ecstatic. 

[Tommygun921]

I'm guessing Twins are pushing for Darvish in part because they want him pitching for them, but also because they believe this signing could help lure him to MN vs New York where he'd surely make more money in endorsements and ect to make up some of the money lost by coming to the states early.

[Blake]

 

He had one major arm issue, resulting in Tommy John back in 2015. That caused him to miss all of that season plus a portion of 2016 recovering. 

 

His velocity has actually improved after he returned from surgery, from 93.4 MPH in 2014 to 94.7 MPH in 2017. 

 

Besides the Tommy John, he's been durable a la Ervin, so I'm not that concerned about him being 31 years old. He should have 3 more good seasons in him at least. 

 

Now, it's still not certain whether this is realistic so I'm holding back from future heartbreak.... If this is truly realistic, I'd be ecstatic. 

Okay, thank you for filling me in. 

 

Like most of us, I think, I'm really interested to see what the new FO does this off-season, whether it's trading for a younger arm or making a FA splash.

[Blake]

 

I'm guessing Twins are pushing for Darvish in part because they want him pitching for them, but also because they believe this signing could help lure him to MN vs New York where he'd surely make more money in endorsements and ect to make up some of the money lost by coming to the states early.

I don't know that NY is going to spend the money to bring in Darvish. During the playoffs last year, one of the broadcasters mentioned that NY was looking to get under the salary cap so they're not paying the luxury tax any more. Specifically, the conversation was about resigning CC Sabathia and whether or not Sabathia would take a pay cut to stay with NY and get NY under the cap. (going from memory here, so, the possibility exists that I imagined the whole thing)

[puckstopper1]

 

Darvish is 31. And hasn't he had some injury issues the last couple of years?

 

I'm not wild about 30 something year old starting pitchers. The Twins already have one of those on the staff. 

 

But, I also admit I'm not wild about spending big bucks on FA pitching, especially when a pitcher is on the other side of 30. Granted, Santana has done darn well but, I think he's more the exception than the rule.

 

Of course, this leads into the very real problem the Twins have when it comes to lack of pitching in the farm system. 

 

And that leads me to believe the Twins are going to have to trade for a younger arm out of another farm system. 

 

Bottom line, I'm expecting the FO to do something other than the obvious.

The Twins could resign Colon and then sign Darvish.  Darvish would be a "spring chicken" compared to Big Chubby!

 

In all seriousness, it will be interesting to see what the FO does...

[tvagle]

 

Do not think both is an option, unless there is something I do not know.  But the Twins need an ace, this is a good place to start.

 

It can't hurt to have Darvish around since by all accounts Darvish is both Shohei’s workout partner during the offseason and his favorite player/hero

 

ICH! - It Could Happen!

[Deduno Abides]

what do you do with your Vikings expectations?

Every year, I expect one or two key players to have life or career changing injuries, at least one person to do something colossally stupid in the offseason or his free time during the season, and the team to find historically notable ways to lose a key game. My expectations are never disappointed.

[S.]

 

I keep trying to get the pathetic look on Darvish's face from the mound during the World Series out of my head....... and how the rental totally screwed the Dodger's. Not once, but twice. It really was a nightmare. Trusting game 7 to a visitor. Positive the "ace" couldn't pitch so poorly twice in a row in the Series......... Ouch. 

Plenty of good pitchers have played horribly in the playoffs, it happens. Kershaw wasn't exactly impressive for a lot of years in the playoffs. Also, plenty of mediocre and bad pitchers have also played horribly in the playoffs. Also, in order to pitch poorly in the world series, you have to get to the world series. Hell, you have to get to the second round of the playoffs first, which isn't something we've been able to manage for a long long time.

 

You can't discount a guy's history due to 2 games, especially when there was the whole issue of them using different balls that were slicker and not breaking as much, thus a lot of breaking ball pitchers struggling more than usual.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still can't believe the Twins will sign Darvish but that's because Falvey is from Cleveland and that's not how they operate over there.

 

On the other hand, Levine is from Texas and that is how they operate over there.

[Doctor Wu]

I don't think it's fair to cite Park or even Nishioka as comparisons or yardsticks as to whether or not we should take a chance on Otani, just because they are Asian  players who played overseas, Park, for example, turned out to have an injury his first year with the Twins, and last year, after a very impressive Spring Training, he spent all year in the minors. I really don't think he's gotten a fair chance yet. Sure, he's not a young prospect at this point, and I understand the view that we need to "move on" from his signing, but I still think he could do some damage in the majors, that of the positive variety. But back to Otani; I'd love to gamble on his potential!

[tvagle]

 

I still can't believe the Twins will sign Darvish but that's because Falvey is from Cleveland and that's not how they operate over there.

 

On the other hand, Levine is from Texas and that is how they operate over there.

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/nsr.gif

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I still can't believe the Twins will sign Darvish but that's because Falvey is from Cleveland and that's not how they operate over there.

 

On the other hand, Levine is from Texas and that is how they operate over there.

I just don't think Levine and Falvey are the type of guys who get stuck in their previous team's way of thinking. That doesn't strike me as their MO at all. I think they are flexible, creative, and practical enough thinkers to look at this from the Twins' long-term perspective, and not impose their previous team's paradigm on their new situation.  Could be wrong, but I don't think so. Guess we'll see.

[caninatl04]

Re O(h)tani (I've seen both spellings), here's my out-of-the-box idea:  I've been surprised to not hear about (closest to Tokyo MLB city) Seattle in the sweepstakes.  Should Seattle enter the fray, I'd love to trade some international dollars to pic up the recently traded Ryon Healy who would be the ideal bat to add.

 

Here is his split line against LHPs:

 

.314  .347  .526  .873

 

We might also get Sam Carlson in the deal!

[Darius]

How many American born players get a 3 year deal of $12 Million right out the chute to play in the bigs? ZERO! And Thanks for the geography lesson. Maybe the right player to call out would have been Nishioki from JAPAN! He worked out real well didn't he. I'm pretty sure the intention was to refer to the international market in the area of Korea and Japan. Wonder why the guys in America that can't make it in MLB go over there to play? Because the competition isn't at the same level as here in the Majors. DUH! So why give any money away to a superstar from over there. He'll more than likely just be average here if he's really that good, or he'll just be another Park or Nishioki.

You do realize that 3-4 million per year over a few years in the MLB is almost nothing, right? That's a ho-hum middle reliever contract. Brian Duening signed for $2 million last year.

 

Signing Park is having absolutely zero negative impact on the Twins.

[Darius]

I still can't believe the Twins will sign Darvish but that's because Falvey is from Cleveland and that's not how they operate over there.

 

On the other hand, Levine is from Texas and that is how they operate over there.

I still find it hard to believe that ownership would open their wallet to the tune of $150-$200 million if Falvine asked for it.

[caninatl04]

One of many Plan B's for the Marte money is Cuban OF Julio Martinez.  Just 21, he hopes to play High A or AA ball this year.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin009jul

 

He is listed at 5' 7", 157 lbs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I still find it hard to believe that ownership would open their wallet to the tune of $150-$200 million if Falvine asked for it.

They did it for Mauer seven years ago.

[jimmer]

They did it for Mauer seven years ago.

for an inhouse, hometown player they drafted and developed and that they know everything about. Edited November 19, 2017 by jimmer

[The Wise One]

 

I'm not skeptical because of Park...I'm going further back than that to a guy that was the star in Japan.  He was considered the best player in Japan after hitting .346 and leading the league in hits (206) and runs scored (121).  He was fast.  He was a switch hitter.  He was the man in Japan!...and failed miserably for the Minnesota Twins.

 

Yes, he wasn't a pitcher.  But DHing might not come so easily for Otani here as Nishioka's .346 equated to .226 over here.  I'm skeptical, but might be willing to give it a try.

hyperbole on what does not exist. NIishi would not be considered the man in Japan based off an outlier season. That being said, I wasn't in Japan to  say either way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

for an inhouse, hometown player they drafted and developed and that they know everything about.

Sure, but we're talking about a new front office. My point is that the money is available and it's the front office's decision how to spend that money. The owner controls payroll but generally doesn't get involved with how that payroll is allocated.