Article: SP Depth Chart - 8/22

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, this is not all on Smith at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree, this is not all on Smith at all.

 

Smith should definitely not take all the blame here. IMO, he did a decent job with drafting and an excellent job with the international market (outside of Nishi). Many of the failures we're seeing today were from the mid-2000s when JR was at the helm. There's no denying that or shifting around responsibility for those mistakes, but I think Smith sped things along a bit with his bungling of the Major League franchise at almost every opportunity.

 

The question is "Has Ryan learned from his previous mistakes?" I certainly hope so and I think it's worth finding out if he did learn anything. Teams rarely pick up a new GM and start winning right off the bat. Ryan has the experience and ability to build a winning team, now it's just a matter of time to see if he can do it again. Thus far, I haven't been displeased with how things have played out in many respects but the real test will be this offseason when he has all the time he needs to put the franchise back on track.

[twinswon1991]

I agree, this is not all on Smith at all.

 

Smith should definitely not take all the blame here. IMO, he did a decent job with drafting and an excellent job with the international market (outside of Nishi). Many of the failures we're seeing today were from the mid-2000s when JR was at the helm. There's no denying that or shifting around responsibility for those mistakes, but I think Smith sped things along a bit with his bungling of the Major League franchise at almost every opportunity.

 

The question is "Has Ryan learned from his previous mistakes?" I certainly hope so and I think it's worth finding out if he did learn anything. Teams rarely pick up a new GM and start winning right off the bat. Ryan has the experience and ability to build a winning team, now it's just a matter of time to see if he can do it again. Thus far, I haven't been displeased with how things have played out in many respects but the real test will be this offseason when he has all the time he needs to put the franchise back on track.

 

I understand you are a optomist but it is hard to trust a GM who cant figure out how to use the DL and who wont address the medical staff issues that were a priority when he took the job.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

this shows why alot of young pitchers try to pitch thru injuries, walters was in the discussion with diamond before he got injured....just shows its better to be bad than injured..

 

Very valid point. Walters should be on this chart--maybe number 5.

 

Are we (you) writing off Baker and Pavs?? I assume Twins will offer incentive laden contracts to both--neither will have much value on the free agent market. It is worth a shot to bring back both (only on incentive laden contracts)--one could come back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Very valid point. Walters should be on this chart--maybe number 5.

 

Are we (you) writing off Baker and Pavs?? I assume Twins will offer incentive laden contracts to both--neither will have much value on the free agent market. It is worth a shot to bring back both (only on incentive laden contracts)--one could come back.

 

The thought of Pavano returning to this team makes me want to cry. That is all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I understand you are a optomist but it is hard to trust a GM who cant figure out how to use the DL and who wont address the medical staff issues that were a priority when he took the job.

 

Not an optimist so much as a realist. Finding good people to run a billion dollar enterprise is no easy task. Is JR the right guy? Dunno, but he has the experience and the track record to make it work. Do I wish he was moving more quickly on some of these issues? Definitely. Do I really know what's going on behind the scenes right now? Absolutely not.

 

As I've been saying all along, Ryan hasn't been back at the helm for even a year yet. This organization had hundreds of important issues to deal with in that time. If he's still standing pat in February on glaring organizational issues, I'll be the first in line to say he needs to go.

 

But I'm not going to call him a failure before he's even had a chance to do his job. Turning around an organization with hundreds of moving parts is not a two month operation.

[Riverbrian]

I agree, this is not all on Smith at all.

 

Smith should definitely not take all the blame here. IMO, he did a decent job with drafting and an excellent job with the international market (outside of Nishi). Many of the failures we're seeing today were from the mid-2000s when JR was at the helm. There's no denying that or shifting around responsibility for those mistakes, but I think Smith sped things along a bit with his bungling of the Major League franchise at almost every opportunity.

 

The question is "Has Ryan learned from his previous mistakes?" I certainly hope so and I think it's worth finding out if he did learn anything. Teams rarely pick up a new GM and start winning right off the bat. Ryan has the experience and ability to build a winning team, now it's just a matter of time to see if he can do it again. Thus far, I haven't been displeased with how things have played out in many respects but the real test will be this offseason when he has all the time he needs to put the franchise back on track.

 

It takes a village... Something like that. You have Scouts, You have Directors of this and Directors of that.

 

You have a Manager that has input... or at least... isn't a limp noodle... A Manager that has strong opinions on what he needs or wants and that I'm sure he expresses to the GM... At least you hope the manager is being heard cuz I'm not sure I'd want a passionless Yes Man for a manager... AND... You have owners on top of everything.

 

Bottom Line... The Owner hires the people who hire the people. If you don't like your franchise and the situation it is in. The Buck stops at the owners desk.

 

With that said... The only clue that you have is this. In an organization that doesn't fire people very often. In an organization that is claimed by some to be a good ol' boys situation. Bill Smith was fired!!! That clue seems to suggest that Bill Smith was responsible or was seen as responsible by the owners.

 

Very few front office firings over the years and Bill Smith was tossed.

 

Is Bill Smith solely responsible? I don't believe so because it takes a village. However, the GM is the filter of all those opinions including those from the owner.

 

Things were not being filtered very well during the Bill Smith regime. I can't site anything specific other than Bill got fired and things haven't been working out the past few years.

 

So I have no problem pinning a major portion of the responsibilty on Bill Smith.

 

On a side note... I've been noticing a lot of Rob Antony in the press lately... It seems like an increase of Rob Antony to me. Could this be a signal that the Terry Ryan Interim GM tag is actually that?

 

Is it wild to speculate that Rob is appearing more often in the press as a precursor to Terry Ryan stepping down?

[Shane Wahl]

Damn, I was going to say that the list of pitchers is ugly, but the comments from people who seemingly just like to piss on everything are uglier.

 

I feel comfortable that 3 out of those 8 will be average-to-good next year (Duensing cannot seriously be considered a starter and waiting on Gibson until June at least makes the list 8). What is likely needed, however, is that 4 of them are average-to-good. I am not fully confident in that yet.

[stringer bell]

Dice K 1-hit the Twins AAA affiliate over 8 innings. MN could make him their big off-season acquisition

 

Their track record on Asian players has been stellar to this point. I say they go for it.

I was thinking that the Twins could have acquired Iwakuma but Seattle got him. Then I thought, would the current Twins' front office try to acquire any Japanese player? I thought about offering a poll of who the next Japanese player would be--someone currently in the majors, someone currently playing in Japan, or someone growning up in Japan, and I thought maybe I would add "someone who hasn't been born yet", because I believe it will be a long time before the Twins sign another Japanese major leaguer.

[Steve Penz]

First, Baker.

 

I have only scanned these pages quickly and I saw his name one time. He is not "the answer" but if he would agree to a two year deal that was better for the twins than his 9million option that may be one small piece. This all hinges upon solid reports that he can contribute next year and that is a large "if."

 

Secondly, it is my hope that they sign just one. I am trying to keep it reasonable. Just sign one pitcher who is hopefully just a bit better than Diamond. If Diamond wins 14 next year and New Guy wins 15-16 that would go a very long way. Putting together #s 4 and/or 5 with names like Deduno, Duensing and DeVries would be acceptable.

[stringer bell]

So to be honest with this list, I think most teams would be happy to have Diamond next year and rely on one of Hendricks/Gibson to be starters. The rest classify as depth for an AAA rotation. This team needs 3 SPs up at the top. It would be in their best interest to make a calculated FA splash on one guy, trade Span or Morneau for another, and sign a couple of guys to very cheap prove it contracts like they did with Zumaya last season. I don't necessarily expect it to work, but it is the type of deal you do because every now and then, a team gets a guy like Erik Bedard on the cheap. But the reality is that this rotation is pretty bad. I wouldn't mind seeing them give Vasquez a shot just to see if his peripherals can hold up in Minnesota, but given his age, I'm not expecting much.

I pretty much agree. Sign a middle to upper level free agent starter--I've said Guthrie on other threads before he almost threw a no-hitter, get someone close to ready in a trade for an established position player, and then spend a little speculative money.

[Steve Penz]

So to be honest with this list, I think most teams would be happy to have Diamond next year and rely on one of Hendricks/Gibson to be starters. The rest classify as depth for an AAA rotation. This team needs 3 SPs up at the top. It would be in their best interest to make a calculated FA splash on one guy, trade Span or Morneau for another, and sign a couple of guys to very cheap prove it contracts like they did with Zumaya last season. I don't necessarily expect it to work, but it is the type of deal you do because every now and then, a team gets a guy like Erik Bedard on the cheap. But the reality is that this rotation is pretty bad. I wouldn't mind seeing them give Vasquez a shot just to see if his peripherals can hold up in Minnesota, but given his age, I'm not expecting much.

I pretty much agree. Sign a middle to upper level free agent starter--I've said Guthrie on other threads before he almost threw a no-hitter, get someone close to ready in a trade for an established position player, and then spend a little speculative money.

 

I am a serial scanner and have just now realized that my post is a bit redundant to this one.

[bird]

Sigh. You know, twinswon1991, a monkey would provide us with more intelligent stuff than what you throw up on here. And less boring.

 

Any chance you could find a new place to throw your tantrums? Maybe go back to the floor of Target where you perfected your craft. Geez.

[Rosterman]

Manship option...

[bird]

My thoughts and wish list are:

 

Large ifs, but IF Baker and Gibson are set to go, the rotation would be 1. A #2-3 starter via FA; 2. A #2-3 starter via trade; 3. Baker, hope for #2-3 type performance; 4. Gibson, hope for #2-3 type performance; 5. Diamong, hope for #3-4 type performance. Rochester starters, and of course insurance: 1. Hendriks; 2. Vasquez; 3. Walters; 4. Hernandez; 5. Deduno; 6. DeVries, with Hermsen, Bromberg and others in the wings. Swarzak and Duensing in the pen. Blackburn gone. Please.

 

This could be done without breaking the bank, without depleting the lineup, and without decimating the farm system. And no more 100-loss whining tantrums around here. You OK with this idea, twinswon1991?

 

"Waaaaaaah!"

 

OK, twinswon1991, have an animal cracker. Look, it's a monkey!

[Nick Nelson]

Very valid point. Walters should be on this chart--maybe number 5.

 

Are we (you) writing off Baker and Pavs?? I assume Twins will offer incentive laden contracts to both--neither will have much value on the free agent market. It is worth a shot to bring back both (only on incentive laden contracts)--one could come back.

 

Walters is on the DL, as are Baker and Pavs. Injured players are not included – the idea is to provide a snapshot of what the team's available depth looks like at this particular moment in time, which is why we'll be posting updated versions periodically. As I mentioned in the article, the top five are the guys currently in the rotation. Which pitchers are included among those spots is not subjective (though the ordering of them is, admittedly).

[mbents]

My thoughts and wish list are:

 

Large ifs, but IF Baker and Gibson are set to go, the rotation would be 1. A #2-3 starter via FA; 2. A #2-3 starter via trade; 3. Baker, hope for #2-3 type performance; 4. Gibson, hope for #2-3 type performance; 5. Diamong, hope for #3-4 type performance. Rochester starters, and of course insurance: 1. Hendriks; 2. Vasquez; 3. Walters; 4. Hernandez; 5. Deduno; 6. DeVries, with Hermsen, Bromberg and others in the wings. Swarzak and Duensing in the pen. Blackburn gone. Please.

 

I mostly agree with this, but I would mash the first two points into one: I would hope for a starter who has #2/borderline-#1 upside. Also, when do you want to take a snapshot of the rotation and have it look like this? It's not going to be the beginning of the year because Baker and Gibson won't be ready at that time - Baker not fully recovered and Gibson still working his way up from the minors. I would expect to see Gibson in the Twins rotation sometime in June. I don't expect Baker to contribute much until 2014, and even then you're probably looking at a #3 starter. And yes - everything with Baker assumes that he re-signs with the Twins, hopefully on some kind of 2 year incentive-laden deal.

[SweetOne69]

It's not going to be the beginning of the year because Baker and Gibson won't be ready at that time - Baker not fully recovered and Gibson still working his way up from the minors. I would expect to see Gibson in the Twins rotation sometime in June. I don't expect Baker to contribute much until 2014, and even then you're probably looking at a #3 starter. And yes - everything with Baker assumes that he re-signs with the Twins, hopefully on some kind of 2 year incentive-laden deal.

 

I've seen this many times. Why don't people feel that Gibson will be ready by the beginning of the season in 2013?

 

Personally I think he has an excellent shot to make the starting rotation out of ST mainly because:

1. Prior to requiring TJ Surgery, he most likely would've been part of the rotation coming out of ST in 2012.

2. By April, he will be 18 months post surgery.

 

Baker is the one that won't be involved at all until June at the earliest.

[TheLeviathan]

How can anyone look at this list and still sanely believe contention is a possibility in the near future?

[mbents]

It's not going to be the beginning of the year because Baker and Gibson won't be ready at that time - Baker not fully recovered and Gibson still working his way up from the minors. I would expect to see Gibson in the Twins rotation sometime in June. I don't expect Baker to contribute much until 2014, and even then you're probably looking at a #3 starter. And yes - everything with Baker assumes that he re-signs with the Twins, hopefully on some kind of 2 year incentive-laden deal.

 

I've seen this many times. Why don't people feel that Gibson will be ready by the beginning of the season in 2013?

 

Personally I think he has an excellent shot to make the starting rotation out of ST mainly because:

1. Prior to requiring TJ Surgery, he most likely would've been part of the rotation coming out of ST in 2012.

2. By April, he will be 18 months post surgery.

 

Baker is the one that won't be involved at all until June at the earliest.

 

I don't think health will be the reason Gibson doesn't start the season in the majors. He has 21 starts in AAA and I doubt he'll add to that total in 2012. After not pitching for so long, I think the Twins would want to bring him back slowly and make sure he faces increasingly difficult levels of competition in actual games before bringing him up.

[Riverbrian]

I can't look at the list and be optimistic about the immediate future. Pitching and Depth of Pitching and Position Depth are serious problems. We don't need 5 arms to put a rotation together... We need 8 starting pitchers at least because some of the 5 are going to fail and some are going to get hurt.

 

Gathering arms isn't an easy thing.

 

I can't see anyway out of this without a nice trade and at least one decent FA Signing and maybe a Rule 5 gem. If ever there was a rotation that can hold a rule 5 player for a year and ride it out. This would be the one.

[SweetOne69]

It's not going to be the beginning of the year because Baker and Gibson won't be ready at that time - Baker not fully recovered and Gibson still working his way up from the minors. I would expect to see Gibson in the Twins rotation sometime in June. I don't expect Baker to contribute much until 2014, and even then you're probably looking at a #3 starter. And yes - everything with Baker assumes that he re-signs with the Twins, hopefully on some kind of 2 year incentive-laden deal.

 

I've seen this many times. Why don't people feel that Gibson will be ready by the beginning of the season in 2013?

 

Personally I think he has an excellent shot to make the starting rotation out of ST mainly because:

1. Prior to requiring TJ Surgery, he most likely would've been part of the rotation coming out of ST in 2012.

2. By April, he will be 18 months post surgery.

 

Baker is the one that won't be involved at all until June at the earliest.

 

I don't think health will be the reason Gibson doesn't start the season in the majors. He has 21 starts in AAA and I doubt he'll add to that total in 2012. After not pitching for so long, I think the Twins would want to bring him back slowly and make sure he faces increasingly difficult levels of competition in actual games before bringing him up.

 

He will be doing that in the AFL this winter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've seen this many times. Why don't people feel that Gibson will be ready by the beginning of the season in 2013?

 

.

 

He wasn't ready prior to his surgery. Peripherals were great but hadn't "put it together" so to speak.

 

As well, command tends to be the last to come back. He's pitching against guys right now that he's much better than... I expect good results. The time to get excited is when he's dominating against AAA type guys.

[ScottyB]

Looking to free-agents for starters next year, there aren't a lot that can be trusted that might fit into the Twins budget. I would not select any pitcher who has spent his career in the NL (see Jason Marquis). But Bedard has had decent numbers in both AL and NL. And Edwin Jackson says he just wants to play somewhere for more than 1 season (he does like Wash), now that he has left Boras, he might be convinced on a 3-year deal for under the $20M+ a season that Boras would have asked. McCarthy didn't look great against the Twins, but compared to what we've got in the cupboard, might be worth a look.

[snepp]

Looks like 100 losses to me. A monkey could draft and develop better than that.

 

Derp.

[twinsnorth49]

How can anyone look at this list and still sanely believe contention is a possibility in the near future?

 

You're right but I don't think most people here do. At best it's sane to believe Diamond can continue to be consistent , Hendriks should be able to get his s**t together enough to be reliable and Gibson has the tools to be a regular contributor, maybe not until June. I say we still have a shot at Baker on a short term deal after we turn down his option and acquire a couple of experienced starters through free agency and/or trade.

[SpantheMan]

Looks like 100 losses to me. A monkey could draft and develop better than that.

To be fair they drafted 2 decent looking college starters who both got injured (gibson and wimmers)

[TheLeviathan]

You're right but I don't think most people here do. At best it's sane to believe Diamond can continue to be consistent , Hendriks should be able to get his s**t together enough to be reliable and Gibson has the tools to be a regular contributor, maybe not until June. I say we still have a shot at Baker on a short term deal after we turn down his option and acquire a couple of experienced starters through free agency and/or trade.

 

I'm probably bullish on Diamond and Gibson going forward, but of the list you provided we have two of the four coming off of major surgery, another pitching way beyond career norms and probably due for regression next year, and a guy we're hoping becomes a quality back-end guy. Nick has been one of the vocal optimists about 2013, I just don't understand how anyone can look at this list - even if we add two starters in the offseason.

[Buck Nasty]

The way I view next year's rotation is:

 

1.) Free Agent. They don't have anyone close to being a #1 guy right now. Most expect a veteran "innings eater" guy

2.) Diamond. This is a stretch as most expect some regression for next year. But he's been solid this year and there is no one else

3.) Gibson. Yeah, I know many say he won't be ready to start year or not ready period. But I think he will be.

4.) Hendricks. Yep, he's 0-6 with a 7.06 ERA this year. But just as most realize Deduno is not going to maintain his 3.33 ERA after only 8 starts, I think most realized the same sample size applies to Liam based on his numbers through the minors.

5.) DeVries, Deduno, Walters, Swarzak, Vasquez, Hernandez, Duensing. All of those guys are spot starter/#5 type guys.

 

I'm sure they'll sign several other free agent guys. Not big names, but low risk guys to hedge against Gibson/Hendricks in case they are not ready or flop. Bottom line, it's not going to be a great rotation. But hopefully a couple guys step forward like Diamond did this year to ease the pain. Wimmers returns in 2014 and maybe they can add a prospect or two via Rule V or trades.

[bird]

Buck Nasty, hope you're wrong on your prediction, that Ryan obtains only one starter, and a veteran innings eater at that. Acknowledging their history of making these kinds of economy moves, I remain hopeful for a change this off-season. Why? They have the money and the trade chips to acquire two #2-3 starters. Would Morneau plus a C prospect like a Pugh/Watts/Hauser/Summers get us such a starter? Maybe I'm being unrealistic. Am I also being unrealistic to think that Ryan will splurge a bit to land a quality FA starter instead of the next Marquis?

 

If you can add two bona fide starters, sign Baker, insert Diamond and Gibson, then all these #5-6 starters we have can serve as placeholders and insurance. Not a pennant winner, but at least competitive for 2013.

 

If Ryan does NOT bring in two #2-3 starters from outside the organization, count me in as pessimistic for 2013 and critical of Ryan for failing to make an essential and very doable move.