Article: Two Veteran Free Agents The Twins Could Target

[jimmer]

Mauer seems to be coming back around to hitting lefties well.  His BA against them was .308 (higher than against righties) and he still had an OBP of almost .380 against lefties. 

 

Molitor did a great job keeping Mauer fresh this year, starting him 131 games and having him appear in 10 others. He's obviously going to get some days off and it seems day games after night games (or night games before day games) is the best way to do that.  If that means missing some games against lefties, fine, but I'm not sure we need to actively avoid batting him against lefties.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sounds like you are saying you won't be OK unless the Twins sign three pitchers better than Santana.  That can't be right.

 

Well I'm OK crossing my fingers that Berrios continues to develop into a better pitcher than Santana. Otherwise, yeah, I want two better than Santana. They don't have to be signed though, I'm fine with trades. 

 

Also, I don't care if they were better than Santana last year, I care about next year and the year after. I'll be OK if the front office gets young guys they believe in who have yet to peak, even while the fan base struggles to look past what said hypothetical pitcher did last year.

 

And so we're clear, Santana had a 4.77 xFIP and a 2.9 fWAR. Despite his smoke and mirrors first two months, I don't think Santana was all that fantastic, and that's not even taking into account almost certain regression from a 35-year-old pitcher. I know others will disagree, but I don't think the bar is set all that high. 

[old nurse]

 

How did Santana do in our most important game of the year? The playoff game?
SSS, of course...but that's sort of the point. Santana is a very solid pitcher, but lacks the "stuff" to really shut down the elite teams, and those are the teams you need to beat in the playoffs.

 

You can't expect to go far in the playoffs with Santana as your staff "ace" pitching 3 games out of 7.

Other than Bumgarner, the last  two pitchers to pitch over 20 innings in a WS were?  Santana could hold up with the two 4-5 inning starts and couple relief innings.

[bluechipper]

I never knew they started.

Remember Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia?

[Nick Nelson]

 

On field performance at all costs is a fair opinion for some. That doesn't make it the only valid opinion. If I'm hiring an employee, what kind of human being they are is part of the equation for me.
Like I said, I don't know the full story, but I'd definitely ask about it and consider it before pulling the trigger on a hire, some don't care, fair enough.

I get that. And agree to an extent. But it's all so speculative that it really doesn't seem worth discussing on a message board.

 

Also, Lackey has been hired by three championship-caliber teams and model organizations over the past four years. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

When it comes to a 40 year old, what he did 5, 4 and 3 years ago really doesn't mean a whole lot. If he was 35, it makes more sense.

Yes, but if he's 35 he's not available on a one-year deal. No one's saying this is some bona fide ace pickup. It's an idea for a potential upgrade that maintains flexibility, which seems to be an objective for these guys.

[Mr. Brooks]

I get that. And agree to an extent. But it's all so speculative that it really doesn't seem worth discussing on a message board.

 

Also, Lackey has been hired by three championship-caliber teams and model organizations over the past four years.

This is a message board, the whole purpose is literally to speculate.

 

Anyway, the only reason I brought it up in the first place is kinda because of comments like your second paragraph. All of AP's teammates said how great he was, and 3 organizations employed him after he whipped a small child with a tree branch.

 

My whole point wasn't to claim he did anything wrong, just to point out that comments from teammates (or in your case, being signed by other teams) provide zero evidence either way. If anything has been proven over the years, it's that pro sports has this tight fraternity where there is no behavior bad enough to be called out for (by peers), or unemployable for - except not standing for the anthem.

 

John Lackey might be the greatest guy in the world, that was never my point.

[Monkeypaws]

All these threads about who to buy, and they all look like Salvation Army finds.

Can't we just put some trust in the farm system? The 40 man is bursting at the seams.  Give the best guys a chance - I haven't seen one compelling FA in all these threads.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We're COMPLAINING about the Colon signing now?? Do you folks have extremely short memories or are you just attached to your narratives?

 

 

I am. The only people attached to their narratives are the people who love Colon. We love the idea of Colon because of his weight and age and nickname but he was a godawful pitcher. He put a 5.18 ERA, an 85 ERA+ and a 5.3 K/9. Those numbers would make any honest fan howl. If that were Kyle Gibson's numbers, people would be frothing at the mouth. Colon was virtually unplayable down the stretch - multiple games where he couldn't get out of the 4th.

Those are bad numbers but even worse is that the Twins didn't get to see what they had in a young guy like Sledgers or Turley or even Gonsalves (though I support not pushing him too hard) and they convinced themselves not to trade a C level prospect for someone more palatable (R.A. Dickey jumps to mind).

 

Colon was a cheap move - the Twins gave up nothing to get him and they valued an aging veteran over much better choices.

 

[jimmer]

 

I am. The only people attached to their narratives are the people who love Colon. We love the idea of Colon because of his weight and age and nickname but he was a godawful pitcher. He put a 5.18 ERA, an 85 ERA+ and a 5.3 K/9. Those numbers would make any honest fan howl. If that were Kyle Gibson's numbers, people would be frothing at the mouth. 

 

Those WERE pretty much Gibson's numbers with the exception of having better K numbers but worse BB numbers.

Edited November 10, 2017 by jimmer

[Nick Nelson]

 

I am. The only people attached to their narratives are the people who love Colon. We love the idea of Colon because of his weight and age and nickname but he was a godawful pitcher. He put a 5.18 ERA, an 85 ERA+ and a 5.3 K/9. Those numbers would make any honest fan howl. If that were Kyle Gibson's numbers, people would be frothing at the mouth. Colon was virtually unplayable down the stretch - multiple games where he couldn't get out of the 4th.

I mean, that doesn't really tell the story of his impact and I'm sure you're aware of it if you followed the team this year. Colon coming in and posting a 4.09 ERA while averaging over 6 IP/start in July & August was crucial for getting this team going and moving them into a position that, by the time he stunk in September, it hardly mattered.

 

He was also repeatedly credited by teammates and coaches for benefiting the young guys a great deal with his experience. That was, in part, kind of the impetus behind this article. I do foresee the Twins looking to replicate that in some way.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I mean, that doesn't really tell the story of his impact and I'm sure you're aware of it if you followed the team this year. Colon coming in and posting a 4.09 ERA while averaging over 6 IP/start in July & August was crucial for getting this team going and moving them into a position that, by the time he stunk in September, it hardly mattered.

 

He was also repeatedly credited by teammates and coaches for benefiting the young guys a great deal with his experience. That was, in part, kind of the impetus behind this article. I do foresee the Twins looking to replicate that in some way.

 

First of all, each game matters. August games and September games all count the same. He was at best an average pitcher for six or seven games (with a huge OPS against that screams luck) before the wheel completely fell off but the Twins were past any deadline and had to keep running him out there while hoping the lineup hit and the bullpen didn't implode over six innings.

 

And I don't buy the veteran impact - that's in the vein of every poor hitting catcher being a great fielder. We make up narratives that are not backed up in fact. Berrios wasn't better because of Colon - in fact he did worse during the Colon era. And isn't Santana veteran presence enough? Teammates rarely say something awful about a guy. He may have been great in the clubhouse but c'mon, you have to play well. He cost the Twins a ton of games - way more than he kept them in.

 

I think he's a fun story but that's it, a story. He certainly isn't a reason to go sign another crappy veteran pitcher. He got brought in because he cost the Twins nothing in terms of prospects and the name value was enough to not alienate the fan base. That's not a baseball move for success, that's an attempt to tread water.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Those WERE pretty much Gibson's numbers with the exception of having better K numbers but worse BB numbers.

 

Early season Kyle Gibson. Who was loathed on TD and went down to the minors while Colon still has his defenders because we love the concept of big fat old pitcher.

 

Kyle Gibson only got some love when he started to pitch well. His 11 games in August and September (3.55 ERA, .720 opponent OPS, 8.0+ K/9) are loads better than any equivalent Colon stretch. And even the love he got was pretty muted.

[specialiststeve]

We have better than Lackey on our 40 man and our OF is stacked with depth so neither really makes much sense.

 

Go all in on Shohei Otani as is a young stud that can grow with our team and can be our ace for years to come with Berrios being a

formidable 1-2 punch. Shore up the relief pitching and let's go.

 

Really if we can get that done we are good to go.

[jimmer]

 

Early season Kyle Gibson. Who was loathed on TD and went down to the minors while Colon still has his defenders because we love the concept of big fat old pitcher.

 

Kyle Gibson only got some love when he started to pitch well. His 11 games in August and September (3.55 ERA, .720 opponent OPS, 8.0+ K/9) are loads better than any equivalent Colon stretch. And even the love he got was pretty muted.

Gibsons' numbers this year are practically identical to last years.  IMO, this is who Gibson is until he can prove otherwise over the course of a whole year.  

 

He had a good 5 game stretch in the latter part of the season (22 Aug-12 Sep).  Nice to see, but not much to hang a hat on.

Edited November 10, 2017 by jimmer

[Teflon]

Somehow I'm not excited by the prospects of a pitcher who would rank third in something on the current Twins starting pitching staff. That would mean he's better than a guy with a 5.00 ERA. 

[Circus Boy]

Pass. Don't want no oldtimers. Only want youngtimers.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Gibsons' numbers this year are practically identical to last years.  IMO, this is who Gibson is until he can prove otherwise over the course of a whole year.  

 

He had a good 5 game stretch in the latter part of the season (22 Aug-12 Sep).  Nice to see, but not much to hang a hat on.

 

Oh I'm not a huge Kyle Gibson guy. I think he's a cheap pitching option for this year but if he was an okay #4 starter, Twins fans would be ecstatic. 

 

My point was more that Twins fans rag on Kyle Gibson like he's a piñata and he was a markedly better pitcher than Colon last year. Better stats, better peak, more upside. The only explanation is that Colon is fun to cheer for so we forgive his warts while Kyle Gibson has crapped in our shoes for many years and we mistrust him.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Please, oh please can Levine aim higher for pitching than John Lackey? Puh-lease with sugar on top!

 

Bench bat type? Fine, prefer better fielding than Werth so as to keep the DH spot open for Mauer and Sano, but he’d be fine in a part time role.

 

But Pitching, especially starting pitching where there’s two solid feel good when it’s their turn in the rotation that the front of the rotation needs fortification, not the back.

[drjim]

Please, oh please can Levine aim higher for pitching than John Lackey? Puh-lease with sugar on top!

 

Bench bat type? Fine, prefer better fielding than Werth so as to keep the DH spot open for Mauer and Sano, but he’d be fine in a part time role.

 

But Pitching, especially starting pitching where there’s two solid feel good when it’s their turn in the rotation that the front of the rotation needs fortification, not the back.

A Lackey type strikes me as acceptable if he is the second starter added this offseason. The Twins need to add one legit starter on a multiyear deal, but a second starter on a one year deal fits well on the roster and salary structure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

A Lackey type strikes me as acceptable if he is the second starter added this offseason. The Twins need to add one legit starter on a multiyear deal, but a second starter on a one year deal fits well on the roster and salary structure.

if it’s Lackey or Bartolo, Lackey would be not cause for pitchforks and torches for the 4-5th spot in the rotation on a 1 year deal if the front of the rotation gets addressed. I’d prefer the second piece be more of the 3-4 years 10-12 mil per season type. More of a mid rotation piece, but if #1 is Darvish that isn’t happening. If it’s Cobb or Lynn or a trade maybe a mid rotation addition is feasible. Edited November 11, 2017 by Sconnie

[drjim]

if it’s Lackey or Bartolo, Lackey would be not cause for pitchforks and torches for the 4-5th spot in the rotation on a 1 year deal if the front of the rotation gets addressed. I’d prefer the second piece be more of the 3-4 years 10-12 mil per season type. More of a mid rotation piece, but if #1 is Darvish that isn’t happening. If it’s Cobb or Lynn or a trade maybe a mid rotation addition is feasible.

I'm much less keen to lock in the 5th rotation spot like that.

 

Assuming they sign a 4 year guy, they'll have him, Berrios with 5 years of control, and Santana and Gibson on one year deals with an option (or year or arb left).

 

Combine that with probably 7 relatively legit guys that could make a start this year (May/Mejia/Gonsalves/Slegers/Romero/Jorge/Littell) and I would prefer flexibility, not locked in deals.

 

If they are in the hunt midseason, they'll be in a better place to make a trade than they are now to add a high end guy on a short deal. If they struggle or get smoked with injuries, better not to be locked in to multiple long term free agent deals.

[Circus Boy]

 

Pass. Don't want no oldtimers. Only want youngtimers.

CLARIFICATION: I would pass on Werth and Lackey. That is all.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm much less keen to lock in the 5th rotation spot like that.

 

Assuming they sign a 4 year guy, they'll have him, Berrios with 5 years of control, and Santana and Gibson on one year deals with an option (or year or arb left).

 

Combine that with probably 7 relatively legit guys that could make a start this year (May/Mejia/Gonsalves/Slegers/Romero/Jorge/Littell) and I would prefer flexibility, not locked in deals.

 

If they are in the hunt midseason, they'll be in a better place to make a trade than they are now to add a high end guy on a short deal. If they struggle or get smoked with injuries, better not to be locked in to multiple long term free agent deals.

The flexibility could be Gibson's spot. He doesn't have any upside left, he's not young anymore. What he's been is what he is - serviceable back of the rotation arm, but not good enough to ever be locked into a spot.

[Thrylos]

 

Gibsons' numbers this year are practically identical to last years.  IMO, this is who Gibson is until he can prove otherwise over the course of a whole year. 

 

So are Buxton's.  90 OPS+ 2016, 94 OPS+ 2017.  

 

Can you count on him, since he has not proved otherwise over the course of a whole year?

 

If you can count on Buxton, based on his second half, why cannot count on Gibson, based on his?

 

Gotta use the same yardstick.

 

Buxton went down, something clicked and he improved.  We all hope its permanent and talking about the second coming of Kirby Puckett.

 

Gibson went down, something clicked and he improved as well.  Not all of us are as enthusiastic as we are regarding Buxton, and expecting him to suck.

 

Don't get it. Really.  I suspect that the truth is some place in the middle regarding both of these fine gentlemen

Edited November 12, 2017 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

Buxton provides top notch defense and is very young. Lots of room to improve.

Gibson is in his 30s. He is what he is.

Nowhere near the same thing.

Edited November 12, 2017 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Gibson was putting up a 4.81 ERA in AAA when he was Buxton's age. Gibson has zero upside left, Buxton is full of upside. How is comparing them in 2017 using the same yardstick?

[drjim]

The flexibility could be Gibson's spot. He doesn't have any upside left, he's not young anymore. What he's been is what he is - serviceable back of the rotation arm, but not good enough to ever be locked into a spot.

That's a good point. I'm giving Gibson too much credit in this equation.

[Penthang]

Personally I’d prefer to see the twins sign one high end rotation arm and fill the rest of the rotation with what they have moving out guys when a better, younger guy is ready. I don’t want to see Gonsalves killing it at AAA for to long before giving him a shot in the majors. As a secondary measure I’m ok with taking a flyer on a minor league deal to a reclamation type low cost to let go when they are surpassed by young guys. Someone like Lackey, however, would demand to high a salleey for the Twins to release him if the young guys are ready to contribute despite how he is performing.

 

I think we do need to find a right handed 4th outfielder who bats right handed. I like Granit a lot but we really need a right handed batter who can field well as our fourth outfielder. That might be best addressed through a trade for someone controllable rather than a free agent one year deal though.

[gocgo]

 

Why?

Serious question. This is a common sentiment, but why? What’s the advantage? Teams carry four outfielders anyway, why not try to maximize production rather than keep trying to force a player to be good at something he’s not good at, and likely will never be as good at as a different player.

You can’t platoon everywhere, or even at more than a couple positions any more, but you CAN get cheap, increased production that way.

Let a RH hitter get most of Kepler’s PAs, and a few of Rosario’s, vs LH pitching. What’s the harm?

Sorry so late on the response Chief.  A couple of reasons. I think that Werth is a really big downgrade in defense.  We are spoiled now defensively, but for what we would have to pay JW to give us Willinghammer type of defense on a fill in basis, I'd just as soon spend on pitching.  I've never bought into the whole lefty on lefty thing.  If you give a guy enough reps, I think they will adapt which is why I'd like to see them get their reps, take their hacks, and I think it pays off down the line.