Article: Two Veteran Free Agents The Twins Could Target

[drjim]

 

Last year the team signed a bunch of "clubhouse" vets who's benefits were pretty entirely off-field related. While Lackey and Worth may be a slight step up from Giminez and Breslow, it's not like these guys are a big help on the field. I really hope the Twins stop doing this.

 

Isn't Carlos Santana known as a good clubhouse guy? Surely Addison Reed has some valuable veteran leadership skills? Can't we instead start getting veteran leaders that also contribute statistically?

 

What does a DH and reliever have to do with a 5th starter and a 4th OF?

[gocgo]

As far as getting Lackey for a veteran leader, I think Erv is probably a better example that I want my young guys to emulate.

 

As far as getting Werth in the dugout to hit lefties, I'd rather let our young guys take their hacks and learn how to hit lefties rather than taking up a roster spot for that.  I see Werth as wanting to stay in the NL.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no interest in either. I hope the Twins agree

[d-mac]

As far as getting Lackey for a veteran leader, I think Erv is probably a better example that I want my young guys to emulate.

 

Except for the whole PED thing.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I don't have any interest in adding a back-of-the-rotation starter (if you're going to add to the rotation, add near the top), but Werth holds some appeal for me.

 

It's simply not true that Grossman hits lefties better than Werth. In 2017, Werth's OPS against lefties was 124 points higher than Grossman's; across their careers, Werth is 89 points better. That's a real step up.

 

Also, Werth's defense isn't quite as bad as you'd think. In 2017: by DRS, he and Rosario were comparable below-average left fielders; by FRAA, Werth was half a win better than Rosario; and by UZR, Rosario was half a win better. None of us see Rosario as unplayable in the outfield; overall, Werth looks like maybe a half-win below average defender as a full-time player, and not nearly that bad as the short side of a platoon.

 

All that suggests Werth could be worthwhile as a corner outfielder platoon for Kepler and his .152/.213/.240 line against lefties.

[nicksaviking]

 

What does a DH and reliever have to do with a 5th starter and a 4th OF?

 

Fine, Austin Jackson as the 4th OF and Tyler Chatwood as the #5 then.

 

Why would anyone intentionally go out and sign a "5th starter" anyway? No team should be intentionally looking for a guy who profiles as a 5th starter, that's typically a pretty poor adjective for a guy and the spot that goes to the weakest performing member of the rotation by default. This team needs front of the rotation help. Signing Lackey is just going to mean there's 5-10M less to go toward getting the #1 and #2 that this team needs.

[GP830]

I'd rather give a couple million to Lackey on a short term deal than pay 4/48 to a middle-to-back-end of the rotation starter that will likely seem overpaid in 2-3 years, ie Cobb. 

 

Werth is a pass for me. Wouldn't be werth it.

 

[drjim]

 

Fine, Austin Jackson as the 4th OF and Tyler Chatwood as the #5 then.

 

Why would anyone intentionally go out and sign a "5th starter" anyway? No team should be intentionally looking for a guy who profiles as a 5th starter, that's typically a pretty poor adjective for a guy and the spot that goes to the weakest performing member of the rotation by default. This team needs front of the rotation help. Signing Lackey is just going to mean there's 5-10M less to go toward getting the #1 and #2 that this team needs.

 

Nothing wrong with those two guys, though I suspect Chatwood signs a pretty decent contract.

 

On your second point, I don't think that's the way it works at all. 5th starter is the guy who occupies the 5th spot in the rotation, right? Not necessarily a value judgement. If the Twins took a shot at Lackey or one of the other 5 guys mentioned, there would be hope that he bounces back and is better than 2-3 of the other guys in the rotation. While the team should strive to have controllable arms in their prime occupying all of the rotation, that obviously isn't the case right now. As they try to distribute resources, while not locking into bad contracts, and keeping some flexibility for future prospects to break in or potential trades - it makes sense to have a varied risk preferences. So I don't really see the problem, or see why it is a bad strategy.

[jtkoupal]

If the Twins stay true to who they are and don't make a big splash on a big name, I like Tyler Chatwood as a potential fit for this rotation. His numbers don't look good on paper, but let's not forget he pitched his home games in Coors Field. His road numbers are far better. His road ERA in 2017 was 3.49. Clearly, Coors Field inflated his ERA and deflated his chances at a big contract. Low-risk/high-reward signing for who could be a solid #3 starter behind Santana and Berrios.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Only problem is, Chatwood is in the NL. Has to face DHs in the AL if he were with the Twins.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Lackey is fine if the price is right.   As for Werth, I'd look into Howie Kendrick or Matt Holliday first. 

[twinfan]

Wait! Do we want to become the (crippled) Yankees? If Hughes is healthy, couldn't he be as good as Lackey? Someone mentioned Melky Cabrerra. He would be a better addition. I'll wait til the free agent listing comes out before posting anymore about free agents. Sano can be an occasional RH DH if needed. Whatever happened to Park?

[Mike Sixel]

Chatwood is going to get paid, imo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

nothing on this list excites me.

[GP830]

 

Fine, Austin Jackson as the 4th OF and Tyler Chatwood as the #5 then.

 

Why would anyone intentionally go out and sign a "5th starter" anyway? No team should be intentionally looking for a guy who profiles as a 5th starter, that's typically a pretty poor adjective for a guy and the spot that goes to the weakest performing member of the rotation by default. This team needs front of the rotation help. Signing Lackey is just going to mean there's 5-10M less to go toward getting the #1 and #2 that this team needs.

He get's it! Aiming for a 5th starter is so weak. Sign the best guy you can and hope he makes your 4th starter into your new 5th starter.

Edited November 8, 2017 by GP830

[notoriousgod71]

 

Lackey yells at his catcher and yells at his position players during the game (on the field) when mistakes happen. He acts like a complete donkey on the field. Hard pass.

 

Sounds like Jack Morris to me.

[drjim]

 

He get's it! Aiming for a 5th starter is so weak. Sign the best guy you can and hope he makes your 4th starter into your new 5th starter.

 

Every rotation starts with 5 starters. Among the 5 is the 5th of those 5, who will come after Santana, Berrios, Gibson, and a presumed multiyear SP signing. This need not be a ranking of their abilities.

[ashbury]

Every rotation starts with 5 starters. Among the 5 is the 5th of those 5, who will come after Santana, Berrios, Gibson, and a presumed multiyear SP signing. This need not be a ranking of their abilities.

Then every rotation by definition has a #1, and we can stop our search for one right now.

[drjim]

 

Then every rotation by definition has a #1, and we can stop our search for one right now.

 

Nope. Though every team does have at least 1 starter!

[GP830]

 

Every rotation starts with 5 starters. Among the 5 is the 5th of those 5, who will come after Santana, Berrios, Gibson, and a presumed multiyear SP signing. This need not be a ranking of their abilities.

Right, but when people are referring to a given player as a 5th starter-- they aren't referring him as if they're referring to the 5th Beatle.

 

They're referring to the starter who is the 5th best on your team and 5th least reliable.

[Nick Nelson]

John Lackey has a 3.57 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP over the past five seasons. If he pitches up to that baseline, he's not a #5 starter on the Twins. He's a #2 or #3. 

 

If you don't like the guy because you think he's a dink, that's OK, but let's not act as though he hasn't been a durable, quality performer. 

[drjim]

 

Right, but when people are referring to a given player as a 5th starter-- they aren't referring him as if they're referring to the 5th Beatle.

 

They're referring to the starter who is the 5th best on your team and 5th least reliable.

 

I guess not all people. I was literally referring to the fact that the Twins should sign a pitcher that would be among the 5 pitchers in the rotation on opening day. Hence, signing one of these guys would be the 5th pitcher.

 

I am assuming they sign someone to a multi-year deal, and then I was thinking about a good way to spread around risk as they add another starter. I realize that signing one of these one year flyer vets is not going to give the highest probability of performance, but it is a mistake imo to sign multiple free agents to multi-year contracts, and the franchise is not that dire for pitching, as they have multiple guys close in AAA that could potentially contribute next year. A trade for a high-end guy would probably be the best option, but the prospects just aren't there.

[nicksaviking]

John Lackey has a 3.57 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP over the past five seasons. If he pitches up to that baseline, he's not a #5 starter on the Twins. He's a #2 or #3.

 

If you don't like the guy because you think he's a dink, that's OK, but let's not act as though he hasn't been a durable, quality performer.

 

The guy's 39 though, I'm not putting any weight on what he did when he was 34. If he's a mid season waiver wire deal ala Colon, sure, I'm down for that. However Lackey isn't coming here on a non-guaranteed non-multimillion dollar deal; I don't know how a team that needs two top of the rotation arms could justify using a 25 man spot on him.

 

I guess I'll add the caveat that if the Twins sign a Chatwood and trade for an Archer and Lackey's still sitting out there come February, sure, then go for it.

[Deduno Abides]

Definitely sounds like Lackey's teammates hate him

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/257178080/john-lackey-has-earned-love-of-cubs-teammates/

“He’s a great dude.”

“He’s a great human being.”

“We’d love to have him here.”

“He’s a great father.”

[jimmer]

 

“He’s a great dude.”
“He’s a great human being.”
“We’d love to have him here.”
“He’s a great father.”

It's weird that players aren't disparaging their teammate in public.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's weird that players aren't disparaging their teammate in public.

This. I have no idea what kind of dude he is. He did divorce his wife in the middle of a battle with breast cancer, but I'm guessing there is more to the story.

But, comments from teammates give me absolutely zero information on what kind of person he is.

We heard the same thing from Adrian Peterson's teammates- then we found out that he beats small children with tree branches until they bleed.

[nicksaviking]

“He’s a great dude.”

“He’s a great human being.”

“We’d love to have him here.”

“He’s a great father.”

  

It's weird that players aren't disparaging their teammate in public.

The subjectivity and grey area that is determining an individual's personality seems like a good reason to put nearly all the emphasis on what the guy can do on the field instead of off of it.

 

I'd rather use those leadership evaluations for the coaching staff.

[Thrylos]

 

John Lackey has a 3.57 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP over the past five seasons. If he pitches up to that baseline, he's not a #5 starter on the Twins. He's a #2 or #3.

 

2017 against the AL : 4.76 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 6.4 K/9.  That's Ricky Nolasco territory.  He is available too

 

I have no problem with them signing older free agents who maybe lottery tickets if:

a. it is a zero risk MiLB contract

b. they are willing to go to the minors and prove themselves in Rochester for a while

 

 

Both Lackey and Werth will not do that.

Edited November 9, 2017 by Thrylos

[Deduno Abides]

2017 against the AL : 4.76 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 6.4 K/9. That's Ricky Nolasco territory. He is available too

 

I have no problem with them signing older free agents who maybe lottery tickets if:

a. it is a zero risk MiLB contract

b. they are willing to go to the minors and prove themselves in Rochester for a while

 

 

Both Lackey and Werth will not do that.

Lackey had three games against the AL in 2017. If you’re scared by his SSS, you better not look at Lynn’s or Chatwood’s. Edited November 9, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[USAFChief]

 

As far as getting Werth in the dugout to hit lefties, I'd rather let our young guys take their hacks and learn how to hit lefties rather than taking up a roster spot for that. 

Why?

 

Serious question. This is a common sentiment, but why? What’s the advantage? Teams carry four outfielders anyway, why not try to maximize production rather than keep trying to force a player to be good at something he’s not good at, and likely will never be as good at as a different player.

 

You can’t platoon everywhere, or even at more than a couple positions any more, but you CAN get cheap, increased production that way.

 

Let a RH hitter get most of Kepler’s PAs, and a few of Rosario’s, vs LH pitching. What’s the harm?