Article: Modern Era Ballot Full Of Flaws

[Don Walcott]

ERA+ relies on some very dubious assumptions regarding defensive statistics and ballpark factors. The Morris debate actually highlights the deficiencies in ERA+ and bWAR (which uses ERA+),

 

Baseball Reference has Morris' best season as 1979, when he pitched 197.2 innings (he got called up at the end of May). He had a 3.27 ERA. However, Tiger Stadium was considered a hitters park that year, and his defense wasn't considered to be very good. In 1983, he pitched 293.2 innings with a 3.34 ERA. However, Tiger Stadium had magically transformed into a pitcher's park (partly due to the Tigers staff being the best in the league in 1984), and his defense was considered better. So his ERA+ was better in 1979, and hence his bWAR ended up better in 1979. To me, this is ridiculous.

 

There's no question Morris was better in 1983. He threw nearly 96 more innings at basically the same ERA. He had a 19.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, compared to 14% and 7.3% in 1979.  He had a 1.158 WHIP compared to 1.204 in 1979. How on earth could bWAR be 5.8 in 1979 and only 4.0 in 1983? Well, because ERA+ and bWAR are terrible rating systems for starting pitchers.

 

Morris' fWAR for 1983 was 6.2 and for 1979 it was 3.6.

 

So fWAR has Morris 2.6 games better in 1983, and bWAR has Morris 1.8 games better in 1979. These rating systems not only don't align, they actually completely disagree about value.

 

The reason this doesn't make sense is that these rating systems are not perfect, nor should they be relied upon in assessing historical facts. The rating systems are better at prediction, as they are based on hypothetical value, not actual historical value.

[OldManWinter]

If I had a vote, Jack Morris would be enshrined!

 

It is not possible to fairly rate players against each other, even as a HOF candidate or a minimum accomplishment for HOF enshrinement. HOF credentials are very individual.

 

Morris was a star among stars as an active player, better than his peers and better than many members already enshrined.

 

Oliva and Kaat would be members by now if I voted too.

 

Both players careers were cut short by significant injuries. But, IMO still had sufficient credentials even if post injury performances were less than before!

 

No doubt players from other teams have been equally snubbed.

 

I say the standard should credit players for their accomplishments, not hold them out because of an obscure miss of a hurdle.

[mikelink45]

 

Yes, ERAs went up that high since 1993, yet Mussina (who started in '96) still bested Morris' ERA by half a run.

 

ERA+ compares how a pitcher's ERA compares to others in their time.  Mussina's is 123, Morris is 105.  That's a considerable difference.  Means Morris' ERA was 5% better than league average while Mussina's was 23% better than league average.  

 

Mussina's K rate was 7.0/9, his walk rate was 2.0/9, his WHIP was 1.192.

Morris' K rate was 5.8/9, his walk rate was 3.3/9, his WHIP was 1.296.

 

Mussina's playoff ERA: 3.42, with a 9.3K, and 2.1 BB/9
Morris' playoff ERA: 3.80, with a 6.2K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

 

Mussina was way better than Morris even in the playoffs.

 

And as far as new stats go, Mussina has 82.2 fWAR.  Morris 55.8.

You write a good post and have great stats.  Its hard to explain why I would still take Morris, but that is the truth. 

[ThejacKmp]

Marvin Miller not being in the hall is the biggest travesty. If you made a list of the five people who changed baseball the most, Marvin Miller would be on that list and could rightfully be at the top. It is a travesty that baseball's owners have blackballed him from the Hall - especially because he undoubtedly made them money. Miller paved the path for baseball to go big business, forcing the owners to get the players on board to expand the game the way it currently is.

 

It's so sad he never got to go in during his lifetime. No one loved baseball more and no one did more to make baseball the game it is today. It's only America's irrational hatred of union leaders that keeps his absence from being a front page story every election year.

 

Ugh.

[ThejacKmp]

 

In games he started where there was a save chance but he stayed in, he was 49 of 52 (94%) akin to Dennis Eckersley in his MVP and Cy Young season.

 

 

This is a fascinating stat. Someone should do an article about this (probably can't do much in modern baseball because it happens so infrequently) but it would be a fascinating view of baseball history to see who could have used a closer and who didn't really miss one.

[spanman2]

This question or point certainly doesn't hold water but I think it would be interesting to ask those who are in the Hall who faced Morris if they feel he is HOF worthy or not?   

[biggentleben]

 

Marvin Miller not being in the hall is the biggest travesty. If you made a list of the five people who changed baseball the most, Marvin Miller would be on that list and could rightfully be at the top. It is a travesty that baseball's owners have blackballed him from the Hall - especially because he undoubtedly made them money. Miller paved the path for baseball to go big business, forcing the owners to get the players on board to expand the game the way it currently is.

 

It's so sad he never got to go in during his lifetime. No one loved baseball more and no one did more to make baseball the game it is today. It's only America's irrational hatred of union leaders that keeps his absence from being a front page story every election year.

 

Ugh.

 

Thing is that he asked not to be inducted if he wasn't by the time he passed. Many feel his nomination now is disrespectful to his wishes.

[The Wise One]

 

You write a good post and have great stats.  Its hard to explain why I would still take Morris, but that is the truth. 

Morris was about the only significant change on a last place team that ended up winning a WS. That is not something that Mussina could ever claim. Morris was a leader, Mussina? IDK.  Sometimes the beauty contest is about intangibles and humans  rather than just cold statistics. 

[biggentleben]

 

Morris was about the only significant change on a last place team that ended up winning a WS. That is not something that Mussina could ever claim. Morris was a leader, Mussina? IDK.  Sometimes the beauty contest is about intangibles and humans  rather than just cold statistics. 

 

Except that you had the rookie of the year, Chuck Knoblauch, Mike Pagliarulo, Scott Leius, a guy who finished with votes for MVP, Chili Davis, and basically an entire new setup crew - Mark Guthrie, Carl Willis, and Steve Bedrosian. The 1991 team was a big makeover from that 1990 team. Don't kid yourself.

[jmlease1]

 

This question or point certainly doesn't hold water but I think it would be interesting to ask those who are in the Hall who faced Morris if they feel he is HOF worthy or not?   

 

It might be interesting, but I wouldn't expect it to be informative. Players are notorious for overrating the guys they played with/against.

[jimmer]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/modern-era-hall-of-fame-ballot-tommy-john-jack-morris-luis-tiant/