Article: The 5 Best Pitching Gambles In Free Agency

[Danchat]

If we're talking about moving one of these guys to the bullpen, sure, that could work as we will likely lose Gee, our long reliever. I wouldn't pencil any of these guys into the rotation.

[caninatl04]

Two thoughts.  First, I don't think the original post intended this kind of signing to be the only move or, indeed, even the major move.  These would be low-risk, low cost moves.

 

Second, a shorter-term deal may make sense.  Starting pitching in 2020 may not be a problem if the 2018 AAA starting rotation contributes by then.  But, there is a hole or two between now and then.

 

I may not agree with the list, but I understand the thinking.

[snap4birds]

Hellickson is from Des Moines.  Minnesota would be the perfect place for him to re-establish his value.  Good defense, close to family.....  He was pretty successful in the AL East in the past, but never with a high strikeout percentage or anything close to domination.  I could see this happening.....

[Major League Ready]

 

Twins have about a 4 or 5 year window to win it all.

 

They need a proven anchor for the rotation.

 

I know there will be more available after next season, but for me, for this historic opportunity, I think you bet the house.

 

And you bet it on Jake Arrieta, a work-out freak, a pretty good pitcher, and a guy who is not afraid of putting on big-boy pants, one leg at a time.

 

The rest will help the Twins get to the playoffs, but not win them.

 

For starters, even with Arrieta, we are not on the same plane as the Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs.  Beyond that reality, our core won't even hit 30 in that timeframe.  Many people are making the point that if we manage our assets wisely we can extend the most important players like we did with Mauer.  We also have a very deep system that should produce low cost players for the next several years. The window is only 4-5 years if our assets are managed poorly.

[laloesch]

None of these options excites me. Jimenez is just awful, Cahill has not been a full time starter with any success since 2013, Hellickson to me is a fringe starter / long RP for a good team Tyson Ross has some intriguing K numbers when healthy but hasn't had a good year in for a couple of seasons. I would consider Chris tillman only if it's a low dollar short term deal given his low k numbers.

[Deduno Abides]

Interesting list. Hellickson could be interesting, but his defense wasn’t the problem, as he had a sub .250 BABIP. Instead, his problem was the non-defensible almost 2 HRs per game. Maybe being out of the home run fields of Baltimore and Philadelphia will help. Tillman is very interesting, except that he was all around awful last year, possibly due to injury. Without film, it’s hard to scout the stat line for turnaround candidates. If any of them would take a minor league deal, they would be worth bringing in. The Twins may in fact be one of the more appealing teams for a starter to take a minor league deal, for the same reasons Colon signed with the Twins instead of the Mets.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

For starters, even with Arrieta, we are not on the same plane as the Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs. 

 

 

 

 

We aren't going to be on their plane regardless, we have to elevate over them in a series.

 

In terms of wasting assets, this is a Twins thread, right?

[Darius]

A team trying to make a playoff run probably shouldn't throwing these guys against the wall to see if they stick. Every game counts when they'll likely be competing for a Wild Card spot again. Something tells me they'll have to win a few more games.

 

Frankly, I'm tired of these types of moves. The Terry Ryan Special.

 

There is a reason why they are cheap and nobody wants them. The likelihood of them being remotely good is very, very low. The likelihood of them being detrimental to the team's playoff hopes is very, very high. It's like rationalizing the lottery as a retirement strategy. "Someone has to win it, right?"

[DocBauer]

Tillman on the cheap as a flier to rebuild flier makes some sense. Ross on a milb deal with incentives definitely appeals. Otherwise, a simple PASS.

[h2oface]

Cahill is the only one I would give a shot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm sure people would've been saying the same type of stuff last year about Charlie Morton if he was listed as a buy-low target. How'd that work out for Houston?

Or Scott Kazmir. Or Jake Arrieta. Those kind of rebound/breakout pitchers aren't terribly uncommon, the trick is identifying them.

[ashbury]

The five pitchers listed are all too expensive, in terms of 40-man space and especially 25-man space. That's the constraining resource, not money, at this time in the rebuild.

 

Guys who are willing to take a MiLB contract, sure.

[drjim]

The five pitchers listed are all too expensive, in terms of 40-man space and especially 25-man space. That's the constraining resource, not money, at this time in the rebuild.

 

Guys who are willing to take a MiLB contract, sure.

The rebuild is over. These guys buy depth and potential upside to help compete this year.

 

This strikes me as exactly the popation of pitchers that a little deeper analytics could find a guy they want to take a shot on.

 

A marginal 40 man guy should not block that.

[drjim]

Twins only have 3 starters locked in right now, and even one of those (Gibson) should be relatively loose in his grip.

[laloesch]

 

The rebuild is over. These guys buy depth and potential upside to help compete this year.

This strikes me as exactly the popation of pitchers that a little deeper analytics could find a guy they want to take a shot on.

A marginal 40 man guy should not block that.

 

What do you mean the rebuild is over?  This team still needs several starting pitchers including an ace, multiple bullpen arms and perhaps a bench bat or two.  I just don't agree.

[drjim]

What do you mean the rebuild is over? This team still needs several starting pitchers including an ace, multiple bullpen arms and perhaps a bench bat or two. I just don't agree.

The roster is not complete, but all transactions should prioritize winning now.

 

That means you can freely dump a fringe 40 man roster prospect for a guy like one of the players listed here who have potential upside this season.

[USAFChief]

 

The roster is not complete, but all transactions should prioritize winning now.

That means you can freely dump a fringe 40 man roster prospect for a guy like one of the players listed here who have potential upside this season.

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

 

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.   

 

 

 

 

[drjim]

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

 

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.

I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.

[howieramone2]

 

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade.

 

When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.   

The rebuild is over. Who said they are trying to get by on the cheap? Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I have no problem waiting until the hot stove season is over to decide. Also, when you have a farm system as deep and talented as ours to use as trade bait, why invest heavily in the market of last resort, which is what free agency has evolved into.

Edited November 8, 2017 by howieramone2

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.

This is how I feel as well. You won't find a breakout/recovery guy on the cheap if you don't try.

 

But that breakout/recovery guy is not a replacement for signing a legit arm as well.

[hugelycat]

Agree with everyone saying one of these moves would be good as a peripheral move / move in addition to other pitching moves. I think this is where you have to trust your scouting and player evaluation. The key point isn't that these guys were bad, it's why they were bad. Can we figure out what went wrong, and can we fix it? I'm thinking of some of the pitchers who flamed out, then went to the Pirates and turned things around, for example. None of them were stars, but the Pirates' coaching staff were able to make something out of nothing.

[Major League Ready]

 

I would agree if this is the only pitcher added. But as a second fa on a 1 year deal to take a shot at the 5th starter spot it is potentially a smart gamble. Push everyone else down a spot on the depth chart.

 

Our staff needs long-term solutions at this point.  This team is never going to be a contender until the starting rotation is solidified and we are a very long way from that point.  These one years deals are great fort a pitcher to rebuild his value but unless we get a couple options year these bounce back deals do little to solidify our staff.

 

Go get Cobb and 2 relievers.Start the season with Erv | Berrios | Cobb | Gibson & Mejia.  Give Gonsalves | Romero | Littell and maybe even Slegers a chance to win a spot.  We need some low cost guys to produce because Erv might not be here next year.  Unless we get lucky for once with prospects, we are going to need to replace Erv.  The good news is we will have his salary and Mauer's to fund another FA.  

 

I don't want to go into free agency next year wondering about the same SP prospects.   If these guys step up, we could use the available dollars on whatever piece we need in terms of position players.  If the SP prospects get a chance and fail, it will be clear to the FO and ownership the need to spend in free agency or trade away prospects.

 

Personally, I like Ohtani for the second add to the rotation. 

[drjim]

 

Our staff needs long-term solutions at this point.  This team is never going to be a contender until the starting rotation is solidified and we are a very long way from that point.  These one years deals are great fort a pitcher to rebuild his value but unless we get a couple options year these bounce back deals do little to solidify our staff.

 

Go get Cobb and 2 relievers.Start the season with Erv | Berrios | Cobb | Gibson & Mejia.  Give Gonsalves | Romero | Littell and maybe even Slegers a chance to win a spot.  We need some low cost guys to produce because Erv might not be here next year.  Unless we get lucky for once with prospects, we are going to need to replace Erv.  The good news is we will have his salary and Mauer's to fund another FA.  

 

I don't want to go into free agency next year wondering about the same SP prospects.   If these guys step up, we could use the available dollars on whatever piece we need in terms of position players.  If the SP prospects get a chance and fail, it will be clear to the FO and ownership the need to spend in free agency or trade away prospects.

 

Personally, I like Ohtani for the second add to the rotation. 

 

I wouldn't worry about starters beyond the opening day five getting opportunities next season. And I'm not sure Littell and especially Romero will be ready to contribute next year.

[Drew]

I wish there were targets I were interested in, the current structure of this team would fit a huge SP signing. But I'm not much of a fan outside of any of the FA SP's other than Darvish (why not?). Just more Ricky Nolasco's. 

 

[DaveW]

The only one I would be interested on that list on anything more than a minor league deal would be Tillman, and I wouldn't go more than 2 years on him, maybe 2 years, 12 million, which seems fair to be a #5

Hard pass on the rest though TBH

I still would like to give Liriano a chance to be a bullpen arm.

Edited November 10, 2017 by DaveW